A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; more TD trimming, record BOP surplus, rosier PREFU, dairy prices up, fewer houses built, farms sell well, NZD firm, & more

Roger Ailes, who transformed cable news and then American politics by building the Fox News Channel into a ratings powerhouse claimed to make the news, not report it.

If so, this version of events is good as any- American Pravda: Our Coronavirus Catastrophe as Biowarfare Blowback?

Andrewj,
This is what Newsweek has to say about this person and her claims.
https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-does-new-study-give-evidence-that-c…
It would seem that caution is appropriate before giving weight to her claims.
KeithW

As another piece that doesn't fit the narrative, whether true, or not, we know how this might play out. 'My' facts, meet 'your' facts, and may the strongest narrative win. In a post-truth world, facts and truth as we once understood them mean something else.

It would be an interesting piece of research to dig a little deeper (not just about the claims themselves, which she's been trying to make a while now, and hopefully that will be done comprehensively) and to analyse the proportion of experts who rubbish her claims without deeply evaluating them, and the number of journalists who do so because they 'know' it's false, without first seeking expert, unbiased, analysis enabling fact-based evaluation, either way. (I like to think the first ratio at least might be stronger).

This one is all the more interesting because it also fits an alternative narrative. The same exercise would thus be doubly instructive about the state of our science and journalism communities, to also map the respective ratios of experts and journalists who latch onto it as proof of 'their' facts likewise, also without fully evaluating its evidential basis objectively either way. Interesting times...

Maybe my summary was unclear. The polling was in the 13 countries listed, a list that includes Canada, Australia, Japan and South Korea, but not New Zealand. Trust in China's leaders in those countries was about as low as for the US and Russia, all exceptionally low.

To answer your question - no China wasn't one of the 13 countries surveyed. Neither was China. The 13 countries are wealthy, democratic nations.
There's some interesting results in that survey. Such as the extent to which Japanese and South Korean respondents viewed China's response to covid so poorly (traditional animosities?).
Aussies thought their own country had managed it well (94%), and 71% of Swedes thought their country had handled it well.

Its not just that mate:

- Housing expensive to own.
- Housing expensive to rent.
- Lower quality of housing.
- Lower incomes.
- NZers are more attractive in the Australia job market than the NZ job market.
- Colder, damper, windier climate.
- Substandard public transport.
- FOOD IS SO MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE

Thats just off the top of my head, but from my end its a no brainer. I was saving 10k a year when in NZ, but about 5x of that in Australia.

The only upside I can think of from this house-buying frenzy is more supply coming online from new builds but that'll be a trickle compared to the current market appetite, many thanks to our dysfunctional consenting and building regulations.
Access to finance for new builds shouldn't be a problem with most developers cashing in on the price surge even before breaking ground. This means the financing risks are simply being transferred from developers to buyers.

If NZ gets COvid spreading more in the community, I would expect to see less people wanting to return. Also as the rest of the world recovers, or learns to live with the virus, or there is a vaccine, I expect to see many people that returned, leaving again. But it could be a good year away. Also depends if there is actually a vaccine or not. A vaccine could be good for house prices, in terms of bringing them back down. But rising unemployment IMO may be a bigger factor. High house prices are not good for the country on many levels, but banks seem to love it, as it means they can lend more per house. If rates rise, then someone is really going to cash in, as monthly interest rates rise.

Right - I read a statistic the other day that close to half of NZ children live in rented accommodation. How is it a bright spot that for nearly half our children, life is about to get worse? Already high rents are likely to go higher. Many of them will have to stay in (often very poor quality) rented accommodation for a lot longer, and move a lot more frequently (with all the disruption to schooling and family life that entails). The fact that this being presented as a 'bright spot' is appalling.

Agree. Might be a tad sooner though, maybe 2032 - 2035

I know! Lower the price of the cost embedded in all items - the cost of money. That will spur on Inflation! (sarc/off)
One day, those that are running this policy madness might realise what they have been doing all along - ensuring that Deflation is a certainty.

That's my boat exactly. Why let the Aussie banks screw us over with our deposits, when we can get a few renters, pay others to look after them, and still get a decent return. Plus the tax free capital gain and resultant rental reviews every now and again.

WE have been fairly lucky with our term deposit rates up until now. But what happens to banks if a significant number of people start withdrawing their money due to the low term deposit rates?

A lot of houses may need a lot of money spending on them in the future, especially if a building warranty of fitness is introduced. But even if people are buying rentals as an investment, it seems that many may just be relying on the capital gain, as rent may not even cover all costs. Being a landlord can be hard work for someone retied, compared to a term deposit at the bank. Especially if they aren't using a property manager, which can suck away a lot of the money. A lot of hassle with being a accidental landlord.