A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; a big mortgage rate cut, many TD cuts, realtor commissions jump, expected inflation rises, swaps stay very low, NZD rising, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; a big mortgage rate cut, many TD cuts, realtor commissions jump, expected inflation rises, swaps stay very low, NZD rising, & more
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Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
HSBC cut its key Premier fixed rates, some to market-leading levels. Late yesterday TSB cut some key rates too.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
HSBC also cut its low TD rates even further. Westpac and TSB Bank cut TD rates as well. Finance Direct also Cut its TD rates.

NEW VISA CARD LAUNCHED
SBS Bank has launched a Breast Cancer Foundation-themed credit card, but one with higher fees and higher interest rates than its standard card. However, the major benefits around their Pink Ribbon Visa are that SBS Bank will donate $20 to Breast Cancer Foundation for every account opened, plus it will donate 5 cents every time the card is used on eligible transactions. And the card also has a Cash Back Rewards feature where the cardholder can choose to keep the Cash Back Rewards, or donate some or all to the Breast Cancer Foundation.

EASY MONEY IN A SELLERS MARKET
Interest.co.nz analysis shows total residential real estate commissions are estimated to have reached $568 mln in the September quarter, new record high propelled by both higher sales volumes and much higher selling prices.

FINAL RESULTS
The final election results are out and not much really changed from the election night results. See here and here. But the National Party did lose two more seats in this final tally. There was no change to the referendum results.

FMA RELEASES FINAL STANDARD CONDITIONS FOR FINANCIAL ADVICE PROVIDER LICENCES
The Financial Markets Authority has released the final standard conditions for a full Financial Advice Provider licence and confirmed three classes of financial advice service, following consultation with the industry.

WASTE ANALYSIS
A new 'experimental' data series released in Australia reveals that only 3.2% of all their 78 mln tonnes of waste generated each year is plastic waste, and a third of that is easily recycled - but isn't. Plastic waste is mainly generated by households (50%), and is the only material that is decreasing in their waste streams. Organic waste is 20% of their totals and rising fast, hazardous waste is 11% and rising. Perhaps counter-intuitively, protecting food better with more (technical) plastic packaging would reduce organic waste considerably and have a net overall reduction benefit.

RISING INFLATION EXPECTED
In their quarterly survey of what professional forecasters, business and industry leaders households and consumers think of inflation, the RBNZ is reporting a continuing rise in these expectations. It is still less than +2% but has grown steadily during 2020 after the sharp second quarter falls. (H/T for correction PO'M.)

RESERVOIRS FILLING
Good rainfall over the past 24 hours has raised Auckland's main water reservoir to 70% full. More good rains are expected over the next few days. Overall storage is up to 69%. National hydro lake storage is still at normal levels. And national electricity demand has risen back to normal levels.

GOLD PRICE HIGHER
The price of gold has slipped to US$1942/oz in early Asian trade, and down from the closing New York of US$1950 earlier which was a +US$47 gain in a day. Earlier still in London, their afternoon fix was at US$1938/oz.

EQUITIES UPDATE
Earlier today, the S&P500 closed up another [almost] 2.0% despite continued election uncertainty. But perhaps most markets expect a Biden win, even if it is still a premature call. Shanghai has opened marginally lower at -0.1% but that should lock in a +2.7% gain for the week. Hong Kong is up marginally by +0.4% in their early session and looking at a big weekly gain of +7.0%. The Tokyo exchange is up +0.8% today in early trade and heading for a weekly gain of +2.7%. The ASX200 is up +0.8% in early afternoon trade and heading for a good weekly gain of +4.4%. The NZX50 Capital Index is up +1.3% in late trade and heading for a weekly gain of +2.7%.

SWAPS STILL VERY LOW, BOND YIELDS FIRM
Update: Today short end rates rose from virtually zero to 0.04%; long end rates rose too. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged today at 0.29%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down another sharp -5 bps at just 0.77%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +2 bps at 3.22%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is up +3 bps at just on 0.55% and now well above the earlier RBNZ-recorded fix of 0.53% (-1 bp). And the US Govt ten year is back up +4 bps to 0.78% after yesterday's very sharp bear shift.

NZD UP
The Kiwi dollar is almost +1c higher and is now at 67.8 USc as the greenback's woes deepen. Against the Aussie we are holding at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we are a little firmer at 57.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 has risen to 70.6.

BITCOIN LEAPS AGAIN
Bitcoin continues to rise sharply and is up another huge +12% from this time yesterday to US$15,840. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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11 Comments

What are the fundamentals that have changed since yesterday that means bitcoin should appreciate 12%?

Everything went up. My silver mining stock is up even more (PAAS = +13%). Gold up. Stocks up (especially tech and fin-tech). USD down. Alts are a mixed max but some of mine up as much as 25%. I'm sure property will go up. Basically the rich just got richer (funny that,,,,)

I'm guessing with Biden in place, the market is pricing in a massive stimulus market in the trillions? Printed out of nowhere.

Number of buyers greater than the number of sellers.

Grayscale buying like there's no tomorrow too. It's not just a bunch of nutters punting on the ol' rat poison

Fundamentals don't matter. It is a high volatility play on the USD. So USD down, stocks up, commodities up, precious metals up, bitcoin up. Some items move more than others, amplifying the move. It's all about flow, not value.

Oops, meant to be a reply to Beanie above. Pressed the wrong button.

Its interesting looking at my stocks. Mostly tech, etfs, gold / silver miners, fin-tech, ARKK etc. All up up and away. I don't have Tesla / Nio but wish I did. Eye watering gains (I think Square beat bitcoin for the year, imagine that). My only two losers are my two value stocks - Mcdonalds Corp and Johnson and Johnson. I guess the stocks that will do poorly now are those whose value requires them to deliver actual sales and services. Growth and tech bubbles will continue to expand outwards for a while yet, propped up by a stimulus economy.

Are you blowing your own trumpet Wolfie?

Not at all JC. I have DCAed into stocks since July. My gains are around 2% in total (from +20% for ARRK, to -10% for apple I believe). Had I simply invested into BTC, I'd be up around 60% I suppose. The only positive is I get an incredibly generous tax treatment compared to the harsh brutality that is crypto tax. But today was a nice recovery for me in the stock world at least (and gold / silver mining stocks continuing to treat me okay).

Yes. Be careful with the tax treatment on crypto. I have a corporate trading account for crypto with an exchange in Japan. Company is registered in British Virgin Islands. Japanese quite accommodating if all the paper work is order.

Tulips.

Tulips with money printing