Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has raised its two and three year rates, both of which are now market-leading.
DECIDEDLY AVERAGE
The latest Westpac MM consumer confidence survey for March shows confidence edged slightly and remains at below average levels. While households are feeling more secure about their personal financial situation, they are continuing to highlight concerns about the economy’s longer run trajectory. There are big differences in confidence levels across age groups. Notably, many younger New Zealanders are highlighting concerns about their financial situation.
AIRFREIGHT SUBSIDIES EXTENDED
The Government has extended support to the aviation sector through to the end of October 2021 to help keep New Zealand connected with trade partners and maintain international passenger services. In March 2020, the Government set aside $600 mln for the initial support, and todays announcement will cost another $170 mln. Airfreight users are especially pleased about this new extension. And the government says it will consider extending support until the end of March 2022 if necessary.
A SWITCH UNDERWAY?
We are noticing that investors are seeking smaller commercial premises throughout the country as an alternative to residential investment property.
ANOTHER CORE COST IS RISING
Wholesale electricity prices have bounced back up again, close to NZ$300 MW/hr. The trend for these prices is up, and a cost crunch is coming for large users in the factory economy. Consumers may avoid it for a while, but it won't be avoidable in the intermediate term. 'Green' electricity is supposed to be a competitive advantage, but the benefits aren't in the prices we are paying. (Three of the big gentailers are State owned and will be happy to see high prices, not the least because it makes new 'green' projects easier to approve.)
THE BIKE INDEX
Perhaps we need to keep an eye on Indonesia a bit more than we do. Certainly 'stability' there is strategically important to Australia. But their economy is wobbling. Motorbike sales were down -17% year-on-year in January. Now for February they are down -31% year-on-year. COVID is undoubtedly the reason, but this is a stat for Indonesia that tells you a lot about how they are faring.
GOLD RISES
Gold is trading in Australia, and soon in Asian markets. So far today it is at US$1734 and down -US$10 from where it opened today.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 Capital Index is -0.6% lower today than on Friday. It is being led lower by Synlait (SML), Meridian (MEL) and Spark (SPK). Meanwhile, the ASX200 is up a very minor +0.1%. At its opening, the Tokyo exchange is falling hard, down -2.1% in mid-morning trade. However Hong Kong has opened up +0.4% and Shanghai has opened up +1.1%. The future trade suggests Wall Street will open tomorrow flat.
SWAP & BONDS RATES FALL
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. If there are movements today, we will note them here later when we get the data. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.35%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -7 bps at 1.77%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -1 bp at 3.26%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is down -6 bps at 1.77% and well below the level of the earlier RBNZ fixing at 1.82% (-2 bps). Although it started out at 1.73%, the US Govt ten year is currently down -5 bps at 1.68%.
NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is now at 71.5 USc and a general easing. On the cross rates we are unchanged at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we soft at 60.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now down at 73.6 and slightly lower than when today started.
BITCOIN DECLINES
Bitcoin has fallen to US$56,577 which is a fall of -1.3% from where we opened this morning. In bitcoin's world, that is trivial. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been active at +/- 2.4%. Some think bitcoin is being 'pumped and dumped'.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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30 Comments
There's likely a good chance investors can bank on being on the receiving end of even more welfare too. Perhaps some increases in existing subsidies to help young people pay more, for example. Or some more rental yield subsidies, to keep on keeping on New Zealand's biggest welfare scheme.
The big news today- the government is again making announcements on future announcements - no policies, no plans - just keep kicking that can down the road where we do nothing. No wonder the voters are getting testy - we voted in people to make policies and govern the country- not stand around making announcements about nothing.
Next time could Queen Jacinda please do this first before her announcement to announce an upcoming announcemnt it would really heighten the sense of anticipation for me https://youtu.be/NkD0MxNY_Bw
Did 3 years of failing to make effective policies not convince you that another 3 years by the same party would just lead to more of the same?
Voting for Labour was clearly a wasted vote (as was voting for National). If you want to change anything, it's not with those 2 parties.
As posted elsewhere:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-auckland-miq-worker-…
Hang on – Jacinda’s possibly saved from a decision – the Gods may have smiled on her at the final hurdle..
Her happy place is back – mercifully a Covid outbreak – phew.
Thank God she thinks – now I can get back to talking about a tricky virus and how good we are at the border – and deflect the fact we are bringing it in daily in droves.
. Some think bitcoin is being 'pumped and dumped'.
Good to hear some anti-BTC proponents. For the head of a data analytics firm, Grant Wilson likes to take liberties with the stock to flow model calling it 'psuedo-science stuff'. However, we know that the market demand structure of BTC fundamentally changed in 2020 with the emergence of institutional and corporate buyers. Nobody knows the velocity of demand going forward because Covid and the actions of the central banks changed everything. Furthermore, Wilson uses the S2F Model for his own ends to estimate what he thinks the model's followers think. What a load of rot. The S2F Model has been accurate until now, but that doesn't mean everything thinks it's gospel. Granny Herald and Ashley Church are far worse when creating these kind of myths.
Furthermore, Wilson fails to mention that we're now in the first time of BTC's history that units are decreasing alongside increasing prices. In the prior 'bubble', prices increased rapidly while units on exchanges increased. This would suggest that the current price action of BTC is more robust now than before.
Mr Orr you can put up interest rates now to cool the housing market without raising the NZ dollar. You’ll just have to find a real job.
Turkish lira falls 14% after bank governor sacked https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56479702
What happened on Monday is not that important than what will happen tomorrow with Governments announcement to tame speculators
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/03/new-map-shows-new-zealand-…
Feel that they will just extend the BLT without touching Interest Only loan and DTI or some announcement about consideration on future date or waiting for more information or waiting for advise on interest only loan and on DTI with the intention to delay if cannot avoid taking real action.
May be pass the buck to RBNZ who will consider in next few months...
Somehow they will play with time ...How has to be seen.
Agree that they will come out with policy with no teeth.
Only announcement expected is on extending the BLT, knowing very well that to make real impact, has to ban interest Only loan ( without loopholes) followed by DTI.
Wait and Watch, How they play it out and expose themselves.
Well, another outbreak – this clearly changes the whole dynamics.
Good news though, I understand the government has issued the following statement to clarify the situation:
In order to make it completely clear to all New Zealander's, while attempting to avoid any further unnecessary confusion during this unsettling period, we will shortly be making a definitive announcement regarding the status of all prior announcements - pending any further announcements – at some point in the future, to be announced.
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