A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; SBS Bank raises TD rates, consumer confidence slips, airfreight subsidies extended, electricity prices up, swaps lower, NZD slips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has raised its two and three year rates, both of which are now market-leading.

DECIDEDLY AVERAGE
The latest Westpac MM consumer confidence survey for March shows confidence edged slightly and remains at below average levels. While households are feeling more secure about their personal financial situation, they are continuing to highlight concerns about the economy’s longer run trajectory. There are big differences in confidence levels across age groups. Notably, many younger New Zealanders are highlighting concerns about their financial situation.

AIRFREIGHT SUBSIDIES EXTENDED
The Government has extended support to the aviation sector through to the end of October 2021 to help keep New Zealand connected with trade partners and maintain international passenger services. In March 2020, the Government set aside $600 mln for the initial support, and todays announcement will cost another $170 mln. Airfreight users are especially pleased about this new extension. And the government says it will consider extending support until the end of March 2022 if necessary.

A SWITCH UNDERWAY?
We are noticing that investors are seeking smaller commercial premises throughout the country as an alternative to residential investment property.

ANOTHER CORE COST IS RISING
Wholesale electricity prices have bounced back up again, close to NZ$300 MW/hr. The trend for these prices is up, and a cost crunch is coming for large users in the factory economy. Consumers may avoid it for a while, but it won't be avoidable in the intermediate term. 'Green' electricity is supposed to be a competitive advantage, but the benefits aren't in the prices we are paying. (Three of the big gentailers are State owned and will be happy to see high prices, not the least because it makes new 'green' projects easier to approve.)

THE BIKE INDEX
Perhaps we need to keep an eye on Indonesia a bit more than we do. Certainly 'stability' there is strategically important to Australia. But their economy is wobbling. Motorbike sales were down -17% year-on-year in January. Now for February they are down -31% year-on-year. COVID is undoubtedly the reason, but this is a stat for Indonesia that tells you a lot about how they are faring.

GOLD RISES
Gold is trading in Australia, and soon in Asian markets. So far today it is at US$1734 and down -US$10 from where it opened today.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 Capital Index is -0.6% lower today than on Friday. It is being led lower by Synlait (SML), Meridian (MEL) and Spark (SPK). Meanwhile, the ASX200 is up a very minor +0.1%. At its opening, the Tokyo exchange is falling hard, down -2.1% in mid-morning trade. However Hong Kong has opened up +0.4% and Shanghai has opened up +1.1%. The future trade suggests Wall Street will open tomorrow flat.

SWAP & BONDS RATES FALL
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. If there are movements today, we will note them here later when we get the data. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.35%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -7 bps at 1.77%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -1 bp at 3.26%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is down -6 bps at 1.77% and well below the level of the earlier RBNZ fixing at 1.82% (-2 bps). Although it started out at 1.73%, the US Govt ten year is currently down -5 bps at 1.68%.

NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is now at 71.5 USc and a general easing. On the cross rates we are unchanged at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we soft at 60.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now down at 73.6 and slightly lower than when today started.

BITCOIN DECLINES
Bitcoin has fallen to US$56,577 which is a fall of -1.3% from where we opened this morning. In bitcoin's world, that is trivial. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been active at +/- 2.4%. Some think bitcoin is being 'pumped and dumped'.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».