Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No more changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Co-op Bank cut their 6 month TD rate, but raised all rates from 9 months and longer.
LOWER PRICES, BUT 2021/22 PAYOUT FORECASTS UNCHANGED
Today's dairy auction brought lower prices, and since the bit +15% run up in early March, these overall price gains have now been halved. Today's price falls reflect the strong end to the production season and buyer hesitancy at higher costs. However analysts say even with this correction, prices remain consistent with 2021/22 farmgate milk price forecast at about $8.00/kg.
AN ANNUAL REBATE
The Co-operative Bank is returning $2.5 mln to its 128,000 customers via its annual rebate scheme. (To save you the calculation, that is an average of $19.53 each.)
A TIGHTER MARGIN
Kiwi Property Group (KPG, #19) has today revised the indicative margin down for its seven-year fixed-rate senior secured green bond offer to 1.25%-1.35% per annum. (It was 1.35%-1.50% pa.)The minimum interest rate remains unchanged at 2.85% pa.
A SECOND VACCINE
Regulatory authority Medsafe has granted provisional approval of the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine for individuals 18 years of age and older. New Zealand secured 2 million doses of the Janssen vaccine through an advance purchase agreement last year. The Janssen vaccine has previously received emergency or provisional approval in Canada, USA and Australia. As a single dose vaccine, it may be useful in hard to reach locations or emergencies, or for those who cannot get the Pfizer vaccine.
RBNZ TO CONSULT ON MONEY & CASH ISSUES
The Reserve Bank has confirmed it'll release a series of consultation papers between August and November on money and cash issues. The first consultation will introduce and seek feedback on the broad concepts of money and cash stewardship, and outline specific topics to be covered in the rest of the series. Subsequent papers will look at the potential for a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to work alongside cash as government-backed money, issues arising from new electronic money forms including crypto assets such as Bitcoin, and stable coins, such as proposed by a Facebook-led consortium, and how the cash system might need to change to continue to meet the needs of users.
MORE CONFIDENT
The number of people holding shares rises and the number of people with term deposits drops as an FMA commissioned survey shows an increase in investor confidence. A survey by Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand (CA ANZ) also found rising investor confidence in the local capital markets.
ANZ THE LAST TO DIP IN
Yesterday we noted that another $500 mln was drawn under the RBNZ's Funding for Lending program. They got these funds at a cost of 0.25% (the OCR rate). Today we can reveal the bank taking these funds was ANZ.
HEARTLAND UPS HARMONEY STAKE
Heartland Bank has increased its stake in Harmoney to 10.1% from 8.44%.
GROWTH SLOWING
QV says house price growth has slowed but it's too early to know if the market has turned. They also say it's soon to know the extent to which the change is seasonal or can be attributed to policy changes
MORE NORMAL
Because we had previously noted very high wholesale electricity prices, we also now need to note today's current pricing is much more 'normal' at about $150/MWhr. Driving these lower levels is good hydro lake inflows and levels, and quite low demand.
LOCKDOWN-LITE EXTENSION
NSW has extended its Greater Sydney's lockdown for seven more days after the state recorded 27 new COVID-19 cases, taking it out to July 17.
GOLD UP AGAIN
Compared to where we were at this time yesterday, the gold price is up +US$5/oz to US$1797/oz in early Asian trading.
EQUITIES MIXED
The S&P500 staged something of a recovery at the end of Wall Street trading earlier today, ending down just -0.2%. In Tokyo, they have started today's session quite negative, down a full -1.0%. Hong Kong has started today down -0.7%. Shanghai has opened up +0.3% however. The ASX200 is trading +0.7% higher in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 Capital Index is down a minor -0.1% in late trade.
SWAP & BONDS FLATTEN FURTHER
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. If there are significant changes again today, we will update this item. They are probably little-changed at the 1 and 2 yr end and holding the recent hikes. But they will no doubt be down sharply at the long end. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.34%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -8 bps at just on 1.38%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 3.10%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is also down -8 bps so far today at 1.65% and just above the earlier RBNZ fix of 1.64% (-5 bps). The US Govt ten year is down a very sharp -9 bps from this time yesterday to 1.36%.
NZ DOLLAR SOFT
The Kiwi dollar has retrenched today, down -70 bps and now just under 70.1 USc, unable to hold yesterday's rise as commodity currencies slip in unison. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we are softer at 59.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 72.8.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$34,257 and up a relatively minor +1.1% from where we were at this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.3%.
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34 Comments
Indeed. Being 136th in the world for vaccination penetration and bottom at 39 in the OECD means quite the opposite in our Alice in wonderland Ardern/Hipkins world where NZ becomes 'world leading' just by saying so. To quote the Cheshire Cat ' I am not crazy, my reality is just different to yours'.
Well MM I am an endangered species in terms of an existing respiratory condition, and elderly to boot. So the invitation for a jab arrived yesterday and on application soonest availability 3 August. Nowhere as good looking, but when minister Hipkins speaks, cannot help but think of Jeff Chandler playing Cochise. “ Pale face speaks with forked tongue.” For example the pathetic response when cornered on last nights TV news about the saliva testing not being implemented. First of all a blatant lie that said workers didn’t want them and then the hasty departure. Actually more pitiful than pathetic in similar vein to the PM’s responses to David Seymours questions about other nations plans, serious and considered by the governments, for living with CV19, oh they are just experiments.
Twice? I'd wager it's a damn site more times than that. We've had fast food workers exposed, we weren't testing border workers or keeping track of the ones we didn't test, we had MIQ facilities with airflow issues, we had people develop Covid after leaving MIQ who were apparently not as good at scanning as they could be, we have people on buses with a confirmed covid case during MIQ exercise trips - and those are just the incursions we know about; it's not insane to assume there haven't been others that haven't generated long-chain transmission.
Very lucky is underselling it. I think we've been bailed out by an invisible hand on several occasions and I suspect the narrative around the response would be very different if even just one or two of the above events had just taken one more step.
Really MM. What did you expect ? You live in White Island, and worse, the renegade province of Canterbury where the feud between the CDHB and MOH has been raging for decades. Control of vaccine distribution gifted the wellington health mandarins a perfect opportunity to exact utu. Let's make the bolshie buggers down there feel some pain. Not for them the 'ahead of target' stellar 9% achieved so far across the nation. Nor the coveted 'front of queue' Hipkins pole position enjoyed by those provinces more obedient to wellington. Your personal attitude is to blame for vaccines being diverted elsewhere. Repent while there is still time.
The Johnson approach. Hipkins thinks Boris has it wrong and has declared we won't be imitating the UK approach when we get to UK levels of vaccination. A big call given it's likely repeat waves of shapeshifting wuflu will keep arriving. That pronouncement could well come back to haunt him even more than his daft 'front of queue' brain fart.
Oh that misnomer has been batted away, don’t you know. One of the other ministers, the one that looks like a cross between a womble and a hobbit, said quite unequivocally that they were in front of the queue for the other one. What other one it was, was not identified though, unsurprisingly
Australia isn't pursuing a zero-Covid strategy any more: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-end-of-australia-s-zero-cov…
Zero Covid is increasingly viewed as a dead-end policy from a scientific perspective, the virus will become endemic: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n494
I suspect that's why the New Zealand government have been very quiet about their plans to reopen the border, they know zero Covid isn't a feasible long-term policy.
The Pfizer vaccine being used exclusively in New Zealand is, like Moderna, an mRNA vaccine; the Janssen is, like AstraZeneca, a viral-vectored vaccine.
Key differences between the vaccines:
https://www.spokane.va.gov/docs/COVID19Vaccines_MGVAMC_3-5-2021.pdf
Considering all the talk lately about superannuation being unsustainable, I guarantee the politicians are thinking about funding it through more taxes. I don’t have a problem with paying taxes. The problem I have is that successive governments have been too gutless to tax big corporates and too incompetent to manage our population and ailing infrastructure. E.g. paying a koha to the mongrel mob.
So much noise was made about tax changes, just to put pressure on government but do any investor buy for passive income, anymore.
Capital Gain my dear Watson, is the key word that motivate for quick, easy and BIG money and safe as personal assurance from the prime minister- Jacinda Arden that come what may will never allow housing ponzi to stop under her.
Not to forget Mr Orr, whose support and promotion for housing ponzi is known to one and all.
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