Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today.
DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.
BACK ON TRACK
A sharp bounce-back in October in Auckland has returned the MBIE's online job index back to the trend we have seen all year, apart from September. The real strength however is for unskilled and semi-skilled workers. The skilled category is flat. It is also notable how the Christchurch online job ad levels continue to decline - but those for the rest of the South Island are rising strongly. Regional North Island is not doing badly either.
MORE KOREANS, CHINESE, FEWER AUSSIES
The tourism sector gained momentum last month, with tourist arrivals up +3.9% from the same month last year to 270,500 in October 2017. The trends of previous months remained the same, with stronger growth in the number of Chinese visitors (up +12.5%) offsetting weaker growth in Australian arrivals (-3.0%). There was also a huge jump in visitors from Korea, by +3,088 or +52% from October 2016
OFF THE BOIL
Infometrics: Annual net migration continued to pull back from July’s peak and reached a 10-month low of 70,694 in October. Fewer people are coming here on resident visas compared to a year ago, while the number of foreign students arriving has plateaued at about 4,000 people below its early-2016 high. Although previous rule changes are already pulling net migration down, further changes by the new government will accelerate this process next year.
'HAS TO BE CUT'
Today's dairy auction has compounded the downward trend for dairy prices - they are now down -10% in the last four auction events - and analysts are growing doubtful that the previously signaled payout levels can be achieved for the 2017/18 season. ANZ economists are expecting Fonterra to drop milk its forecast next month from the current $6.75 to possibly as low as $6.25.
The RBNZ has been looking at 'distributed ledgers' (blockchain) - and in a bit of detail too. They are trying to increase public understanding of the technology, highlight some of the risks involved in using cryptocurrencies, and look at some of the potential implications of these technologies for consumers, financial systems, monetary policy and financial regulation. If you don't need to read their whole 44 pages, we have a review here.
Australia has entered an uncertain chapter of its economic history, the RBA governor has declared. And a key issue is how to get wages rising again. It may be more than monetary policy can fix.
Residential construction completed in Australia in the year to September was up +1.4% but that hides the fact that renos and additions to residential property was down -4.1%. Take out inflation from this data and there is a small slippage. The residential sector was the only one going backwards however; non-residential and engineering sectors are expanding strongly.
WHOLESALE RATES SOFT
Swap rates fell by -1 bp today across the board from 2 - 10 years. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.92%.
NZ DOLLAR FIRMS, BITCOIN AT ANOTHER RECORD
The NZ dollar has inched up today to 68.4 USc. On the cross rates we are at 90.3 AUc and at 58.3 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 71.5. But the bitcoin price is taking a breather, holding just under US$8,100.
You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.