A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; BNZ cuts 1yr mortgage rate, RBNZ sits pat, we review car insurance rates/cover, FBU in trading halt, swap rates little changed, NZD falls sharply

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ have launched a 4.39% one year fixed 'special' mortgage rate.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here today.

EITHER WAY IS POSSIBLE
This morning, the Reserve Bank left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75%. It noted the recent rise in house price inflation but sees this moderating over time. They have revised down the economic impact of the new Government's fiscal measures. They aren't ruling out the possibility of an OCR cut, given the downside surprise of December's CPI data, but say the 'risks are two sided', meaning a rate rise is also possible. But at most, analysts only have one +25 bps hike penciled in for late 2018.

OUCH
Interest.co.nz got a bunch of car insurance quotes in January 2016. We then got quotes for the same profiles in January 2018. On average those premiums jumped +20% in two years. The detail is revealing and you can inspect that here and here.

TRADING HALT
Building giant Fletcher Building puts its shares into a trading halt after disclosing it sees even more financial problems emerging in its accident-prone building and interiors division. Also see this.

IMF, OTHERS DISCUSS PACIFIC REMITTANCE CHALLENGES
The International Monetary Fund says its staff met with the Asian Development Bank, banks and regulators from Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific over recent days "to identify practical solutions to address the costs and risks of transferring remittances to Pacific countries and difficulties in undertaking cross-border transactions." There's more to come. 

INFLATION RISK
After rising +50% since 2010 to 2016 (Z Energy bought BP's NZ operation in 2010, just saying), the oil companies share of the NZ petrol pump price has since stabilised even if it is quite volatile. MBIE monitoring of crude prices, which had been rising in US dollars, shows they have been stable since November, held back by a stronger NZ dollar. Discounted pump prices show a similar track. But if today's lower exchange rate extends, the risk is all to higher prices and higher inflation.

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES STEEPEN
Not much movement today on wholesale swap rates. The one year slipped -1 bp, and rates for 5 years and longer are all up +1 bp. This is slightly different to what we expected after the rises on Wall Street, but follows the slightly dovish RBNZ MPS. Meanwhile the UST 10 yr, got as high as 2.86% at 9:30 am this morning but since then has slipped back to 2.81% which is just a +1 bps net rise. The Aussie 10 yr is at 2.86% (unchanged). The Chinese 10 yr is at 3.90% (down -4 bps), and the Kiwi 10 yr bond is 2.99% (down -1 bp). The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged.

BITCOIN 'STABLE'
Bitcoin is now at US$8,110, up +4 on the day. The downward momentum has clearly stopped. But the US SEC has said it is turning its attention to cryptocurrencies and ICOs. They may not be friendly.

NZ DOLLAR WEAK
The Kiwi dollar is substantially weaker today, moved by a dovish RBNZ. It is currently at 72 USc which is more than a -1c drop on the day, at 92 AUc (almost a -1c drop) and 58.6 euro cents (a ½c drop). This puts the TWI-5 down at 73.4, a full -100 bps fall.