Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.
BUYERS MARKET
The housing market is cooling, says QV. According to their data, average property values have fallen in Auckland, Tauranga and Wellington over the last three months - and vendors are being warned against unrealistic price expectations. Dunedin is about the only market with good increases still coming through. Barfoot's Auckland also reported June sales results with prices basically unchanged and modest volumes.
HIGH EARNERS INTO THE BALLOT
The Government has announced the upper thresholds to be included in their ballot for KiwiBuild properties. First home buyer couples can earn up to $180,000, single buyers up to $120,000 per year. These levels have been set to include high-paid state workers who routinely support the Labour Party. And they now say you can qualify if you are a 'second chancer' after a relationship breakup (which is a good idea).
LAND TAX GETS AN IMPORTANT BOOST
The IMF is calling on the Tax Working Group to introduce a land tax in a bid to help give the Government’s KiwiBuild project a leg up.
DAIRY PAYOUT UNDER THREAT
Today's sharpest fall in dairy prices for over a year raises questions about whether the current level of forecast milk price for farmers this season will be achievable. Another risk to our economy.
JOB MARKET CLAMS UP
Bad business confidence is showing up in job ads. The latest evidence is in today's release of the ANZ Job Ad data. Jobs growth has stalled and is starting to move in the wrong direction. Business expectations of activity and intentions to hire have deteriorated and this is flowing through into job ads. Uncertainty about the new labour relations policy also means the brakes have been tapped harder than first expected.
COMMODITY PRICES SLIP
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index slipped -1.0% in June from May, following five consecutive monthly increases. However, the level is still +2.2% above the index for the same month in 2017.
"PEACE DISEASE"? BUCKLE UP
And as if we don't have enough to worry about, an official editorial in the Chinese People Liberation Army Daily, says senior CCP officials are accusing it of having "peace disease" for having no recent combat experience. Go figure.
SWAP RATES STABLE
Local swap rates unchanged today. It has been a long time since we have had zero change, probably because risk signals out of the USA are absent. The UST 10yr is now at 2.83%, down -3 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.59, down -1 bp, the China Govt 10yr is at 3.51% (up +2 bps), and the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.80%, down -2 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.98%.
BITCOIN MEANDERING
The bitcoin price is now at US$6,455 which is -2.4% lower than this time yesterday. (By the way, gold has recovered in Asian markets today, now at US$1,258/oz which is up almost +US$20.)
NZD FIRMER
The NZD is firmer as risk appetites improve slightly and is now at 67.7 USc. On the cross rate we are lower at 91.4 AUc and 58 euro cents. That has the TWI-5 at 71.
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17 Comments
You know there is going to be cheating in Kiwibuild .
So one 30 year-old lawyer is on $150k
His/ her partner , also a lawyer is on $100k
They dont qualify .
They "separate " for the purposes of the application.
All they need do is make a single application , and hey presto , they are in .
Another fiasco........................ rules made on the fly with no second-step-thinking .
No shit, property speculators have been gaming the system for years, nothing new about it. Every system gets rorted one way or another. Just need to implement severe penalties for those that get caught. Immediate mortgagee type sale of the property and $100k fine per involved person (Buyer, partner, lawyer etc.) should do it.
A substantial proportion of NZ's "productive output" is focused on "gaming the system." Kind of ridiculous that the govt and legislation creates frameworks that are largely meaningless and easily circumvented. The same institutional power paves the way for the system of gamed.
"PEACE DISEASE"? BUCKLE UP
And as if we don't have enough to worry about, an official editorial in the Chinese People Liberation Army Daily, says senior CCP officials are accusing it of having "peace disease" for having no recent combat experience. Go figure."
That is interesting news David. I wonder if they have already set up any forward operating units in countries that could be of strategic interest? Possibly imported some units/labourers under the guise of helping nations with their housing and infrastructure needs? That would be a genius way of sort of invading somewhere before you really invaded it. Maybe Tom Clancy has written the book on this already. Will we see them volunteering for UN duties perhaps?
Alternatively, If they are looking for combat practice, maybe they should set up some games against the Philippine basketball team, they like a bit of a tussle.
Little Green Men?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_green_men_(Ukrainian_crisis)
Apparently there are nearly 3 million enrolled in the Peoples Liberation Army. My suggestion of basketball against the Philippines may be an unfair mismatch of resources.
There are a lot of empty cities in China with tens of thousands of shitbox cardboard houses that if you just put a high fence around a perimeter would make wonderful labour camps, that is if you had a mind to plan ahead for this sort of eventuality. Even use some foreign investment to get them pre-built.
Read James Fanell for more background.....the core quote:
With the realization of the “China Dream” firmly linked to a global naval capability, China’s leaders are on the cusp of achieving their military and economic goals. They are rapidly increasing the PLAN’s order-of-battle in support of an expanding set of global missions to fulfill their “China Dream” of national restoration and rejuvenation, which will in turn fuel and secure their global economic expansion through the $1.6 trillion “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). Previously called the One Belt One Road (OBOR), it spans 80 countries.
While official Chinese documents describe the BRI as purely commercial and “win-win” for participants, studies have shown that internal PRC discussion of the BRI characterizes it as a stealthy conduit of political influence and not only maritime—but naval expansion.
The BRI was previously known as the Maritime Silk Road. Between 2000 and 2014 in the transport and storage sectors, China committed $126 billion in these sectors.
These commitments led to port deals worldwide that provide extensive expansion opportunities. China’s present and future naval construction capabilities and capacity, successful ongoing expansion of naval
operations, and official advocacy for a modern, global naval force is already posing a challenge for its neighbors and the U.S. Navy.The PLAN’s expansion from 2000 to 2018 far exceeds the buildup in any other nation’s navy in the post
–World War II era, save for the U.S. Navy during the Ronald W. Reagan years of the 1980s. The reason is simple: for China’s leaders to achieve their vision of a “rejuvenated” and “restored” China, they need a fleet that can expand China’s interior lines out into the maritime domain.In other words, they need naval, air, missile and expeditionary forces that can take China’s regional
military dominance and intimidation to the global realm. Due to atrophy of U.S. naval forces over the last decade, Beijing’s goal is expected to be realized -- by 2020.
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