Ex-PM & ANZ NZ chairman John Key tells Mike Hosking of rising loan delinquencies & problems ahead for the global economy. Finance Minister Grant Robertson & ANZ respond 

Ex-PM & ANZ NZ chairman John Key tells Mike Hosking of rising loan delinquencies & problems ahead for the global economy. Finance Minister Grant Robertson & ANZ respond 
John Key cartoon by Jacky Carpenter.

Fresh from attending the National Party's annual conference on the weekend, ex-Prime Minister John Key has detailed a gloomy prognosis for the global economy in an interview with Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking.

Despite starting with a cheery "morning Mikey" Key's message was a sobering one. Now chairman of New Zealand's biggest bank, ANZ New Zealand, Key said ANZ's seeing rising loan delinquencies, albeit off a low base.

He noted the June quarter 4.1% Gross Domestic Product growth recorded by the United States was "tremendous," but suggested the way it was delivered wasn't. "Very, very large" budget deficits of about 7% of GDP were behind the US growth, Key told Hosking.

"The point isn't that the US has a problem today, but it will have a problem down the track owing the better part of $20 trillion," said Key.

"If you look across to Australia, and to a degree we're seeing it in New Zealand at ANZ, you have had a big build up of private sector debt. Households have borrowed a lot over the last decade or so and that is absolutely slowing down. You're starting to see an increase in [loan] delinquencies - people who are not making their payments on investor properties off a very low base, but [it's] starting to rise."

As of March 31 its latest disclosure, ANZ NZ had $562.3 million worth of non-performing loans, equivalent to 0.4% of its $126.8 billion of total loans.

Asked about Key's comments, an ANZ NZ spokeswoman told interest.co.nz: "Sir John Key, who also sits on the ANZ Group Board out of Australia, was mostly referring to overseas trends. As Sir John said, in New Zealand overall mortgage lending growth has slowed in recent years. There has been some seasonal increases in delinquency rates for investor properties but overall these remain at record lows. This is considered a normal part of the credit cycle."

Key also told Hosking that on a recent trip to China, for the first time when he has visited, some "big names" were privately telling him they've been surprised by the amount of corporate collapses.

"The Government there [China] can't allow any more credit growth because that has been phenomenal in the private sector over the last decade. So they're really saying 'look, you've got to grow without credit growing' and there's real concerns about that and land prices," Key said.

And you go to Europe and you've got a situation where you're starting to see, in Southern Europe again, a return to some of the concerns we had back in 08 when I became Prime Minister."

"I don't know when the correction is coming I'm just saying to you that if you look out on the horizon there are some troubled waters out there," Key told Hosking.

He then moved onto the NZ economy.

"If you look at what has driven a lot of New Zealand's demand in the time I was Prime Minister from 08 to 16 [2008 to 2016] it was a significant increase in migration, a very strong housing market, a lot of confidence running around in the business community, what was very low interest rates, and over time globally a capacity for governments to spend a lot of money," Key said.

"Add in to all of that a China that was very, very strong and growing and spending enormous amounts of money."

"And what I would say is if you look at what's happening at the moment in the New Zealand economy most of those factors that drove that very strong economy are either being taken off the table or are reducing. That's the right of the Government. I'm not criticising that, I'm just simply saying that if you want to continue to stimulate the New Zealand economy the question is what replaces those factors and that's the question the Government ultimately needs to answer," said Key.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson responds 

Newstalk ZB also sought a response from Finance Minister Grant Robertson. He told Hosking that as a small, open exporting nation New Zealand always needs to be very aware of what's happening globally.

"And there's no doubt that particularly the trade war between China and the US is starting to put some pressure on the Chinese economy. There are obviously issues in Europe, with Brexit as well," Robertson said.

"That's why we've been cautious in keeping the debt levels relatively low and having that surplus for the classic rainy day."

Robertson also defended the Government's stance on foreign investment.

"We're talking about [stopping foreign] investors speculating on the housing market. If there are investors that want to come in and add to the productive economy, who want to build houses, who want to build hotels, we're open to that and we continue to need foreign investment in our productive economy to give us the standard of living that we want," Robertson told Hosking.

"We've got a policy programme, we're rolling it out. I've done over 20 interactions with the business community right around the country since the budget and actually there's a high degree of optimism about people's own activity. [But] business confidence levels sadly do tend to track who is in government as opposed to being linked to GDP growth. The last time Labour was in government business confidence levels were even lower than they are now and we had average growth of 3.2%."

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

236 Comments

Comment Filter

Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).
14
up

*Popcorn*

This will stun some on here, to hear their messiah proclaiming " trouble at t' mill ".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lG75cp6PWfw

10
up

Looks like Uncle John has finally started reading the comments section on Interest.co.nz. I may have missed it, but I didn't hear him say 'Sorry everyone I really should have kept an eye on the amount of credit that the banks were supplying to households.'

Oh no he can't say that now can he!

@ Nic Johnson , just in case you missed something the OCR is set by the RBNZ , outside the ambit of politicians , as is the RBNZ policies with regards to Banks lending on secured assets , as in property .

There was NEVER an official policy to allow credit by individuals to rack up, in fact quite the opposite , Key was at pains to advise folks NOT to borrow to buy overpriced houses

Nic, RBNZ stands for Reserve Bank of New Zealand, they are independent form the government

20
up

To an extent, they're independent. However, the government sets the mandate and controls what they have in their toolbox, hence their having to request of the previous National government the ability to put in place debt-to-income requirements.

Conflict of interest between a desire to keep house prices rising vs. the RBNZ desire to limit potential harm to the economy of a bubble.

Well done, you are absolutely bang on with those comments

22
up

Yvil

The lending Ponzi and credit issues that NZ households face however is primarily the result of debt that NZers have taken on to compete with wealthier foreigners with whom they could never compete on a level playing field.. That is what the previous government is responsible for, John can't say that though now can he because he is 100% compromised as the architect of 'let's turn NZ into Noah's Ark for the wealthy of the world'

I have not mentioned the Reverse Bank or Cash rate in my previous post nor is that the responsibility of government.. But policies like 'Open Door Immigration' 'Negative gearing allowances' are government lead policies that have created the distortions.

There seem to be a few commentators today who really are starting to come across a bit panicky about something that their messiah is now voicing. Booms happen, busts happen, they always have so there is nothing new in that only the magnitude changes. Let's just see how it all plays out and look forward to all the wonderful opportunities that a bit of creative destruction will bring about. It'll be fun.

I think he was well aware it was time not to be holding the parcel.

21
up

Clearly these Global economic headwinds are all Taxindas and the Coalition of Losers fault. If only she hadn’t taken all that time off to have a baby, the world would have been a better place.
*ps I am being facetious...

Hi bluemeanie, when do you want to buy me that beer for losing the bet that "National would govern alone"? Would be good meeting you

What year was that bet for 2030?

The Global headwinds are not of the COL's making .

However , how they chart the good ship New Zealand through them is very important .

Key did a sterling job with the GFC

This Government was to tax tax tax tax tax tax tax and tax everything in sight , ban oil and gas , hand out the tax take to the sick , lame and lazy , and generally make things worse for everyone

All this at a time just when the economy is showing sign s of contracting ( albeit mildly )

Its a disaster in the making by a bunch of fools who have never had a proper job

We need to be afraid , very afraid

'All this at a time just when the economy is showing sign s of contracting ( albeit mildly )

Its a disaster in the making by a bunch of fools who have never had a proper job

We need to be afraid , very afraid'

Boatman. You appear to be letting your emotions for John Key get in the way of your thinking. Why don't you re-read that last one one because 'signs of contraction albeit mildly' cannot then be a 'disaster' to be 'afraid, very afraid'.

You're not holding a few of John's early delinquent loans are you?

Yes I agree the govt guarantee of depositors was the right thing to do. In retrospect it probably wasn’t necessary as the Aussie banking system held together well post GFC, but that is no attempt to pick holes in that decision. But that is a small plus against the big minus of the unsustainable credit and real estate bubble we now find ourselves in. And key and English did nothing to manage that bubble

Nic, there was an election in NZ last year. Blue meanie bet National would govern alone, I bet they would need NZF to govern. That bet was made 9 months prior to the election

30
up

"'look, you've got to grow without credit growing'

More sage wisdom from the ponzi pusher.. sir chon

ham n eggs.

Given Uncle John's comments, past and current job titles, would you suggest that it might be time to repeal OBR?

2Ham n eggs ............. yes we need to grow the economy and not use credit extension to do so , unless its for investment in productive assets .

This comes from people working harder , producing more , more efficiently , investing in the right types of assets , etc

Not on 50,000 of the latest SUV's a year all on the drip fro the Bank , and other such wasteful nonsense

Have you ever analysed the dogma you spout Boatman or are you so bereft of free thinking that you blindly follow the blind?

Why do we need to grow the "economy"?

Have you ever contemplated the possible limits to working harder, producing more, more efficiency? Are you now working 14 hour days, are you producing more and are you more efficient?

Your expensive Greenhithe property isn't wasteful nonsense?

Give me your answers not the ones you've been taught please.

14
up

He's another one of these doom and gloom merchants!

Bet when he saw under the hood of ANZ Australia's loan book he asked the ANZ NZ team to do some low key digging around to see how bad it is here. Got to be careful what you ask for though....see no evil, hear no evil, don't have to disclose to the market no evil.

36
up

Key has farted in the elevator and exited on the 8 floor leaving behind Bill and Grant to glance suspiciously at each other.

21
up

Possibly more like he had a good crxp in the lift and now someone else is cleaning up the mess

19
up

The worst part is the elevator doesn't actually have any engine. It's just 70,000 immigrants pulling on a rope. Meanwhile the greens are trying to bicycle up the stairs and Winston is trying to figure out if a race horse will exceed the 10 person limit.

Things cannot be that bad, a lot of people still have their sense of humour

21
up

Is that a blowfly buzzing around John Key in that cartoon sketch?

I think it is a roach, scuttling down from under the drapes (did Winnie ever work out why they don't match the carpet?).

It looks that way but it's actually a GCSB drone.

11
up

and the drone is a Huawei made in the mainland

Robbie just flicked a bit of pugwash at Key.

30
up

Soooooooo, Winston was right...... the godlike and Teflon coated JK himself has confirmed it..the storm clouds are coming in.

John Key Got us through the GFC worse recession in living memory ( for most of us )

13
up

Rubbish. We escaped it due to the switch that had occurred from trading with mother Britain to trade and ties with China. To attribute escaping the gfc to something key did is baloney.

Add to that the fake stimulation from more people and the flag spending of course.

The GFC is not over...merely kicked down the road...as Key himself has now seems to be accepting.

The flag was $2m ..........roughly what we spend on beneficiaries in handouts in just a few hours

14
up

$2m? Wow, you National party twits just can't help yourself. $21.8million was the provisional figure, I don't remember seeing a final figure.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11657032

I'm all for cutting back on benefits... lets start with the most expensive.. National super. :)

Pensioners in private residences don't come cheap.

The final figure was closer to $30m. Your sneering dismissal of beneficiaries adds a meanness of spirit to you increasingly obvious lack of intelligence. You make a perfect national voter.

The GFC was also more an Atlantic Financial Crisis, and its impact was more muted in APAC where banks were not quite so invested in silly instruments. NZ banks were not up to the same shenanigans as those either side of the Atlantic.

That made a massive difference. What behaviours or policies of Key's do people actually credit with saving NZ from economic harm?

I think you are absolutely right on why the Aussie and NZ banking systems rode out the GFC, but I think the depositor guarantee was a good decision. I suspect that when push comes to shove next time OBR will collapse like a pack of cards and deposit guarantees will again be offered. Probably at 4 am on a Monday morning before banks open

Probably at 4 am on a Monday morning before all the banks but one open.

Fixed that for ya. Or are you seriously suggesting our gummint is competent enough to put it in place before one of the banks gets into strife?

Boatman,

But below you insisted that Key had nothing to do with monetary policy. Which is it? I did say that intelligence is not evident in your posts,but an irrational right-wing bias certainly is.

10
up

I got made redundent in late 2008. I was working for a huge multinational company in Wellington that got taken over by one of it's even bigger multinational rivals. The project I was working on, the takeover company already had an in-house rival product.

It was a perfect storm and was unable to move on to another project team within the company as the work dried up; Internal takeover, the GFC stopping new project spending by private companies, and frigging newly elected National with their public spending freeze and going through the accounts "line by line ..."

National got NZ through the GFC through dumb luck that China pumped and Australia pumped and pumped.

A public spending freeze may have been agood thing. But National implemented their freeze in the middle of a frigging private spending panic. Could have been Warren Harding re-incarnated.

But 6 months later they had a working group and decided to start thinking about building a cycle path. All bow to the Great Leader.

Personally, I for one will do my bowing down in the directions of Wen Jiabao and Kevin Rudd and my ex-flatmate who got me a job in Australia.

Actually, to be fair Wen Jiabao and Kevin Rudd over-stimulated. But I still can't believe our government froze spending during those first few months. My god did they dodge a bullet through the actions of others.

I have fond memories of being an active member of the ANZ/ING frozen funds group bottom line investments rated as grade 'A' were junk bonds , 600/700 million $'s 12,000 investors .
Many years after an original 6 cents in the $ offer we achieved the return of our money pretty much in full both banks being found guilty of various wrong doing
. During our long battle John advised us to accept and back off in relation to National interest . When John was handed his peach job i realised what he meant.

37
up

To paraphrase - "We were lucky to have governed in a world where interest rates were so low, which created a veneer of wealth, China was booming, we imported loads of people and our economy was built on these and rising house prices. Now all of those things are at an end it's Jacinda's fault. Vote National 2020."

42
up

He’s our very own Fred Goodwin. He talks about rising house prices like it’s a weed that grows in the garden, not much anyone can do about it. BS, he and his govt acquiesced in a massive credit bubble so he could enjoy the political fools gold of rising house prices without any link to rising incomes. He did absolutely nothing to moderate credit growth, it didn’t even rate a mention. “Nice problem to have”, “symptom of success”, and all that. Oh yeah, and stupid levels of low grade immigration. He knew better, the guys just a phoney. I have a visceral dislike for this guy.

25
up

Agree. Isn't it ironic when he talks about the USA kicking the can down the road?

15
up

"He knew better, the guys just a phony. I have a visceral dislike for this guy." Join all those fired by the smiling assassin and those driven to poverty by his policies.

He knew better, the guys just a phoney. I have a visceral dislike for this guy.

The feeling is mutual, but to be fair, it seems that most politicians convey a "caused by factors beyond my control and not my responsibility" message.

Only the guy is no longer a politician.

@bobster , you really dont have a clue do you ?

John Key was never responsible for monetary policy , he had Bill English in charge of Fiscal Policy, but luckily our Monetary Policy is out of the hands of politicians .

Monetary Policy and credit extension management was a function of the Reserve Bank ( managed by an Act of Parliament called the Reserve Bank Act , and the Banks Act which overseas Banks ) and it sets the rules which are implemented by Treasury and various organs of state .

The Governor of the Reserve Bank is neutral from a political perspective , and we have had some very very good Governors over the years.

Yes the RB has responsibility for monetary policy and macro prudential regulation, but I am not aware of any statement by the key govt expresssing any concern at the rising level of private sector debt nor stating that rising house prices were unsustainable or anything other than a grand sign of success. And getting govt support for increased RB macroprudential regulation was like getting blood out of a stone. Why was that? Because key was lapping up the policitical wealth effect that goes with rising house prices. They spent no political capital trying to restrain the credit bubble, by jaw boning or active policy. They were quite happy to acquiesce in the credit bubble because it was politically advantageous. At a time when we were entitied to expect responsible political leadership, we got nothing.

ps please don’t assume others are as dumb as you are

Boatman, sadly you can reliably spot ignorant comments by the number of thumbs up, Bobster's got 25 and counting

17
up

Please read my comment above. The govt totally stonewalled RB initiatives to rein in excess credit growth, nor did it indicate to the RB and the public that this type of restraint was even a political priority. When the govt needed to show courage and leadership, they opted for political self interest. At no time did key or English offer any serious political leadership on the unsustainability of the wealth effect of rising house prices caused by the credit bubble. Apparently a credit bubble is a “sign of success” and a “nice problem to have”. They deliberately chose not to make any statement about the unsustainability of private sector debt nor the risks that this level of debt entailed. They consciously acquiesced in the bubble for political advantage. And now we are bracketed with Australia and parts of Canada as the unreconstructed residue of the late 2000s credit bubble. This credit bubble is the biggest economic risk we face. To get to this point indicates to me a major policy failure. I remember a time when we looked to National as a safe pair of hands to avoid these types of failures. It’s ironic that a national govt was unable to show the political courage to address our self destructive behaviour. They were political cowards. The buck for this bubble stops with them.

I just spotted and ignorant comment (excluding mine) with zero thumbs up.

How reliable is your measurement system now?

I don't read his comments that way. He is saying we didn't find another way to do it, and is questioning if Labour can. I think it is a fair question, one that Labour will struggle with. I put it to my neighbours the other day, there is no other choice but more immigrants or collapsing house prices. It is as simple as that.

16
up

The only growth we got came with mountains of debt. Way to go National.

I am not defending Key or National, just pointing out the flawed data thinking behind this comment.

From Dec-2007 to Dec-2017 debt increased by +$93 bln to $260 bln, a rise of about +5% per year. Not especially large.

In the same period, NZ economic activity was +$2.462 tln.

The thinking trap is to compare stocks with flows. That increased debt supported a vast flow of economic activity. In other words the extra $93 bln aided in generating $2462 bln of activity; for every $1 in debt taken on over that ten years we got $26.47 in net consumption activity.

From this perspective, the extra debt is not a mountain - more of a molehill.

But what percentage of that economic activity was due to govt borrowing/spending, and what percentage of it was real growth rather than pedalling overpriced homes to each other?

And getting back to flows.. what is the long term cost of servicing that debt?

I'm taking your figures include household, business and government debt there, David. My concern is does the extra debt incurred generate sufficient profit to pay the interest and pay down the debt over a reasonable period?

The danger is if the profit is only sufficient to cover the interest when times are good. If not, there must at some point be a transfer of equity to cover the shortfall. Isn't this the debt trap that NZ repeatedly throws itself into each decade? The result is New Zealand's negative net investment position.

Back at you on that one, David.

. The economic 'system' is merely riding on a one-way flow of real stocks. The stocks are being depleted - so the flows have to be reducing. So the debt is an exponentially-increasing worry. Already, globally, it can't be meaningfully paid back. There has to be serious and increasing inflation if the system is to both remain intact

https://www.ted.com/talks/dame_ellen_macarthur_the_surprising_thing_i_le...

Note her comments re stocks..... It's interesting the intellects that 'get it'....... they almost never comee from an economics background......

12
up

Yes its called "selling your soul"

The only way out is an exorcise ourselves of the rich migrants and foreign buyers and lets face it that was always going to involve some level of head spinning, green vile, vomiting pain

AJ,,,.. you'll enjoy this
Even thou we've seen this chart before... it is still staggering..
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2018/07/national-debt-exploding-is-fraud-...

Thanks Roelof.

"America is not alone in spending far more than it takes in and running a deficit, however, that does not make it right or mean that it is sustainable. Much of our so-called economic growth is the result of government spending. Both Grant and Chanos claim this has created a false economic script and like a Ponzi scheme, it has a deep relationship to fraud. History confirms that during such cycles the argument flourishes that, "this time is different" but always, in the end, proves wrong."

Money supply growth seems to be an exponential function... ( this is the essential reason real estate seems to double every 10 yrs, in my view )

reminds me of the bacteria riddle:

The number of bacteria in a large sealed jar doubles every minute.
The bacteria will take an hour to fill the jar.
When will the jar be half full?

The world is at the half full stage.... so we dont have long before we need a big "reset".. I'm thinking 2026ish....
Just like in the Natural world, there may well be a "collapse"...then.

Note Robertson says we’re “talking” about a foreign buyer ban. The words are changing, softening up the public for the back down.

Interesting. Link/source?

From the article above "We're talking about [stopping foreign] investors speculating on the housing market".

I would have thought we've moved passed the "talking" about it stage to actual legislation before Parliament.

11
up

The legislation is before parliament. Have you been living under a rock, or are you so eager for Labour to fail that you'll take any comment out of context?

Progress on the bill can be found in the link below.

https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/bills-and-laws/bills-proposed-laws/docum...

They Delay and Dilute the ban and can say good bye to next election as like it or not majority of Labour vote came from that promise.

A really sad stream of comments above.

28
up

The sadness is understandable though.

John Key gives the impression that he knew all along that National's so called 'rock-star economy' was nothing more then a sham built on the back of low interest rates, China's boom, and an immigration and housing pyramid scheme. I think it's natural for people to feel sad when they've been misled or scammed.

agree. If the world economy does in fact implode in the next couple of years, then it will be interesting to read the comments section of interest.co.nz

Sigh, if only we had John and Bill running the show........

We wouldn't have the problem of plummeting business confidence.

TTP

That is so true TTP. Bring back Key!

27
up

You do remember that he chose to leave the sinking ship?

The ship wasn't sinking when he was at the helm. It's only starting to tread water now, 20 months after he left.

12
up

Clearly you weren't looking out for icebergs 18 months to 2 years ago, I now suspect, along with many of us, that Key was.

13
up

Yvil.

I think he learnt the lesson from another smiley faced politician in the UK. The 'rotten mare, Tony Blair!'

Exit stage left. Guess is that like Tony, Uncle John will be looking for a nice little UN job to take him out of the country for a few years so that people get a chance to forget. ANZ must be desperate on the foreign buyer lobbying to put him on stage now. My guess is they'll struggle to use him publicly in 12 months time.

It's not "uncle John", it's Sir John, wether you like it or not.

14
up

Yvil

I will continue with 'Uncle' as we all have a wayward uncle who is great fun to be around but often selfish in actions, hence it makes it easier for comparison of character.

I have always been a tory and my arguments are not political. But in relation to this banker, come politician, come banker again. I do have an issue with policy making being (for a decade) skewed towards the benefit of one specific sector of an economy (in NZ's case the banking sector (and we don't even own most of the banks)) and probably have a bigger issue with politicians who set the agenda for policy then being allowed to benefit financially to such a great extent, I think it goes against the principles of who elected officials should be representing. Then to change careers and take a leadership role in the industry that has been the greatest beneficiary is just unpalatable.

As for 'Sir' - bankers haven't always been able to hold on to those titles forever, as 'Sir Fred the Shred' will tell you. He was another banker who had a similar disdain for debt to income ratios (at his bank) and we all know how that turned out.

No, you just call him uncle John because you are disrespectful and you would never have the courage to call him uncle John to his face

Yvil, would you stand outside Cash Converters waiving a placard "bring back Sir John"?

10
up

Yvil

Why would I have a problem with that? We're not in China mate, no ones going to execute me for calling John 'Uncle John'... My guess is that his face would probably just go very red and then he'd give me that winning smile..

Hell people throw dildos at politicians in this country and no one batters an eyelid..

What are you like Yvil, getting upset on behalf of someone who doesn't give fig about you, besides I reckon people will be calling him far worse over the years to come.

[ personal insult removed. Ed. Please discuss the issue, sans insults. ]

Jonkey is and will always be our version of Donald Trump. Just swap the money laundering Russians for another sort, and instead of manipulative cyber strategies make it the most bald faced shameless approach akin to politicians doing market spots in commercials for hair regrowth and coke. You can say much of anything to their face, throw a dildo in the conversion, it is a free country, although I assume due to the obsequious demeanour you are not used to that. Knighthoods are not great of standing, they are cheap titles for marketing far removed from stature or honour. You want an important title try God, even then it is only important in some circles.

Dodgy John

12
up

gosh are you really that naive????

16
up

Come on, it was obvious that economic growth during the key govts was largely (not exclusively) based on an unsustainable increase in mortgage credit and loose immigration. Key as much as admits this. This type of growth is unsustainable. Now that we have reached the end of the road for the credit bubble, and probably also the tide of loose immigration, what’s going to replace it? Key knew that the growth we derived from increasing mortgage credit is not sustainable, but of course he never had the guts to say this. He was well aware of the consequences of unsustainable credit expansion, but as rising house prices underpinned his popularity he didn’t want to rock the boat. Now that he’s got in his lifeboat and safely rowed away, he can suddenly now see things with greater “clarity” than he did before. Of course, he knew better all along. He’s a political coward and a charlatan.

Doubly so under Labour Bobster.... Its' the nature of "Debt Capitalism " ie.. its apolitical... Politicians don't drive it... they just tax and spend, and respond to lobbying...and economists.
If I recall, the RBNZ and other Central Banks did not care about levels of credit growth back then

Hard to beat 11% Housing credit growth back in 2003.
17% in 2004
16% in 2005
14% in 2006..

Do you think Helen Clark was aware , as you say Key was..??

I don’t hold helen Clark to that degree of financial sophistication. It’s a dumb mistake I can understand a labour govt making. Maybe the growth under the labour govt didn’t get outside the parameters of the somewhat frothy, I don’t know. But certainly I would hold national generally and John key in particular to a higher standard of economic management than that. And they flunked it, big time

If u want to blame someone, blame Central Bankers and economists...
Greenspan is a name that comes to mind..
Since Nixon ended Bretton Woods in 1971.... there has been a fucked up Monetary system , that has been , essentially, self serving to the Banking sector.... to the F.I.R.E economy.

I think you are being kind to these people by blaming John Key..

Hi Roelof

But you could also argue that given the lessons were there to be learnt from the GFC that turning a blind eye 2011-2016 to an asset bubble that was getting out of control and that could have been tempered by policy control was negligent.

7 times multiple of lending and Interest only debt for all. It's been ridiculous and he now is Chairman of the biggest recipient of the interest on that debt.

So that the house price continue to grow?

TTP, Winston Peters forewarned the country of baseless accusations such as yours in his victory speech last September. Blaming plummeting business confidence on the Coalitions tireless efforts to right many past wrongs is just a game plan for bruised losers.

35
up

Thank goodness he's admitting it was rampant immigration and rampant house prices that propped up the economy during his near decade in charge of the economy. Which is code for, 'we made no gains whatsoever in terms of lifting productivity'.

We had an Aucklander visiting over the weekend - one which hadn't been to Wellington for more than two decades, and even in that visit only stayed a night while in transit to the SI. So we decided that tiki touring was in order.

The reaction was interesting. We covered a lot of territory and sites - the whole time without ever encountering a traffic hold up (and always able to find a car park). And then the other discussion (aside from traffic!) that stuck in my mind was about the near absence of people from India in the Wellington region. She works at Middlemore and was absolutely perplexed by government policy because from her perspective there didn't seem to be any English-language requirements as part of the immigration process. Interpreters are apparently costing that DHB a fortune and the language barrier is a drag on productivity, of course. She had recruited for a position recently and of 95 applicants, only one was not Indian. And it was her impression that wanting to adopt/adapt to a NZ cultural viewpoint was not of any concern/interest within the Indian community. According to her, whole suburbs have been "taken over".

It occurred to me that her experience would be so completely different to that of our Wellington domiciled bureaucrats. It made me think that Aucklanders have been subject to cultural change on a scale the rest of NZ just hasn't been exposed to and simply don't grasp/understand.

To me, it sounds as if the Super City has become an archipelago of cultural segregation - South Asia, East Asia, Pasifika and Pakeha.

If this is what is happening, does it matter? And what are the implications of our non-English speaking population in the future?

Our political leaders seem to want us to celebrate this diversity - but surely diversity which results in segregation isn't what they portray this "celebration" to be - yet that's what it seems to be becoming 'on the ground' to me.

19
up

He had huge amounts of political capital, and he just threw it away. He should have been focusing on ways to improve our productivity in the long term. If we continue to rely on low value high volume commodity exports its likely we will continue to decline relative to our peers in terms of growth and national wealth. Plus these commodity industries will increasingly and adversely affect the natural environment and the things that make NZ special and can give NZers the quality of life they expect. Instead Key relied on the cheap thrills of a credit bubble and low value immigration. His political capital was spent on bread and circuses in the form of a real estate bubble. Instead of asking us to focus on the things that will really pay dividends in the future. And maybe make sacrifices now for a better future. FFS, be a leader! I do think history will treat him very harshly.

He always reminded me of a (second rate) Tony Blair, with Bill English playing the stoic Gordon Brown.

20
up

He reminded me most of pope Ratzinger. A pole climber, one who wants to rise to the top for no better reason than it is the top. An apparatchik. And when he’s at the top, do nothing except those things which will keep him there. But have no wider vision whatsoever

14
up

And I'd add - no compassion or empathy.

He reminded me of the witch who tried to climb up Rapunzel's hair.

I have been astonished at the number of my aquaintances that have not heard of Tommy Robinson whom is now a wellknown name in much of the English speaking world. Kate you have seen hints of the immense problems Europe currently has. Youtube provides the information that we do not get from our dishonest media.
Search subjects such as iq. Sam Harris, Professor Jordan Peterson and Douglas Murray.

But...but...tax cuts....oh, and won't increase GST...not.

You make it sound like being an Aucklander is a disease.

yep like STD, you only get it if you are going to wrong places. All about choices you made

Sorry, I definitely did not mean to come across that way. Husband's family roots are Auckland and Whangarei - they will always be special places in our hearts/minds.

English is now a requirement for Immigration with immigrants having to complete an English Exam to be granted a Skilled Migrant Work Visa and Partner Visa. However, it's not a requirement to prove English fluency for an accredited employer work visa. Although, there are already thousands of non-english speaking immigrants in NZ.

So when you say "now a requirement" has there been a change, and was that recently? I'm just trying to figure out how we got so many thousands of non-English speaking immigrants, as I thought it always was a requirement (aside from for refugees). I did ask our visitor whether all those people requiring interpreters were elderly, as I thought perhaps they came in on family reunification visas, and there was a waiver of the English language requirements in that case.

But no, all age ranges apparently.

Excellent comment Kate

11
up

Kate: ""an archipelago of cultural segregation"" - a lovely phrase which I will steal. Maybe not quite true but rapidly going that way with all that implies for academics discussing 'social cohesion' in their ivory towers and dairy owners being beaten up defending their stock.

Immigration is rather like adding nutmeg to your cooking - absolutely fantastic turns into disgustingly inedible with just an extra pinch.

What would you do to mitigate cultural segregation?

First, I'd want to understand whether there was/wasn't that sort of trend emerging. So, Stats would need to put together this kind of graphical data from the last census;

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/segregation-us-cit...

Then I would set up focus group meetings in the neighbourhoods that were found to be culturally segregated. From those focus groups you would gather data about resident preferences (i.e., did they purposefully move to a particular suburb because they wanted to live amongst people of their own culture; are they interested in integration, if so why/how - if not, what are the attitudinal barriers... that kind of 'rich' data capture).

Then I'd analyse that data to determine whether the trends emerging were acceptable or detrimental to developing social capital and hence a harmonious social fabric for NZ going forward.

If the trend toward segregation is determined to be real, and undesirable - then one has to design mechanisms to promote opportunities for what is referred to a "bridging capital" in the literature; e.g.,

Putnam speaks of two main components of the concept: bonding social capital and bridging social capital, the creation of which Putnam credits to Ross Gittell and Avis Vidal. Bonding refers to the value assigned to social networks between homogeneous groups of people and Bridging refers to that of social networks between socially heterogeneous groups. Typical examples are that criminal gangs create bonding social capital, while choirs and bowling clubs (hence the title, as Putnam lamented their decline) create bridging social capital.

A really good start would be to develop civics education within the NZ Curriculum, from primary onwards. The above research would guide what the nature of that civics education needed to be. We do as a country need to determine what makes us unique as New Zealanders (i.e., what our values are; what social behaviours are acceptable/unacceptable - what binds us together) and then educate and promote what those norms/expectations are of our citizenry.

That sounds great. I can see that it might take a bit of time, say a generation or two? The result would be worth it though. Got any examples of it working in practice?

The colour of a persons skin means no more than their ability to withstand exposure to sunshine levels. Indeed, I give not a damn what colour an individual is. However, some belief systems may prove to be very problematic as is being shown in Europe. Also certain racial groups do have a greater number of thier populations that (perhaps only currently???) are unable to find work in our increasingly complex western societies. The world is embarking on a fascinating experiment with Soros' attempts to destroy European borders. We should be watching Europe with immense concern that we do not go the same way.

I would say not as much suburbs experiencing cultural segregation... but travelling around NZ it is a completely different mix & reaction. There are more community services & ones specific only to certain cultures, e.g. a doctors office & community services only for pacific people, library daycare only for mandarin speakers etc up in Auckland. There are suburb groupings, e.g. folks in Browns Bay noticed the steep increase in South Africans in the area above the average distribution but now that means it is where you go for biltong. But people tend to feel safe where there are signs of a collective culture being shared and families move close together. The most racism though is as you go further down south. That's where most the white power and neo nazis are. Denial of service access is not as bad as being targeted for violence based on the colour of skin or religion of all flaming things.

If given the choice I'd prefer violence against me on grounds of religion than skin colour. I can choose my religion.
Of course racism is more open where there are few visible minorities. We are all nervous of what we don't know. My grandmother said her skin crawled when the Asian doctor touched her; she had never met anyone who wasn't white; but she also said her preacher had told her that everyone is a child of God so she made a strong effort to hide her feelings from him. That was a long time ago; now TV and Internet make it impossible to miss the successful immigrant Kiwis.

Not everyone can choose their religion when it factors in genetic linkage. Being classed as from a certain parent should not affect the child's religious classification but it often does. But you are right in some genetic traits religion can be hard to tell. But many racists will try anyway... Hmm have I hit the Godwin's Law limit point.

As a side note there actually is a known long standing bias in many medical professionals, even to the point there are often known misconceptions in some groups such as ideas like darker skin feels less pain, women are more hysterical etc which often leads to long diagnosis times for minorities and women. Even scientific studies indicate that a diagnosis can take as often as 4 to 16 times longer due to racial and sexual bias. Hence the huge drives for breast cancer education now as a redress to a very deadly disease. Autoimmune conditions that overall have around 80% of female patients often have very low research budgets, treatment or specialist access mostly due to the bias historically (and even currently) leading to these patients being imprisoned in institutions instead. I know this is tangent to your mothers adverse feelings of discomfort to a difference in practitioner but the reverse situation of practitioner bias on race and sex grounds is alive and well. So her discomfort may even have had some undercurrent of not feeling like she would have a good rapport, which can be valid if she had little knowledge of how the practitioner would react to her responses. The core is that there needs to be a shared set of standards, a open & effective complaints system if things do go wrong and if they have valid training to give any practitioner a chance to build a rapport. Hence you often see the medical certificates, brochures for HDC, nowadays etc.

I actually had something similar the other day when I found for a year my GP had taken no medical notes for medical issues, (based on racial grounds), and did not even check prescriptions or make referrals when they stated they had. Bit of a lack of rapport worthy of switching. It can happen to men as well, especially if they fall into a medical issue mostly women & minorities have. Thankfully awareness & education in medicine is a constant process and while many fail there may be that one that succeeds in learning. I am amazed it has been 30 years from some MD & MS patients being called by GPs as being "on drugs" or "in their heads" to a diagnosis in 15, and now finally knowledge & genetic test for what causes many subtypes. (Sorry a bit of a pun in regards to MS there given the demyelination). Family have been affected by both and had those exact comments from GPs who were unfamiliar until after a few they found the one who believed them & did tests. But culturally we have a long way to go even in NZ to remove the discrimination.

20
up

I find his comments surprisingly candid. None of the factors he identified in driving NZ's growth during his tenure were due to Nationals policies except immigration and, as we all know, that has negative externalities. Put simply, some of NZ's growth over the past decade was borrowed from the future.

To be fair John Key would have a helluva lot more financial knowledge and abilities than the whole coalition government combined!

But by saying that, so would “The Man”

37
up

Being a foreign exchange dealer has nothing whatsoever to do with financial acumen associated with managing an economy in the public interest - quite the opposite! The skill set is being able to take advantage of one-off sugar hits - in one day, out the next. No long-term strategic thinking needed.

We got what we paid for - and like most FX dealers, they leave a trail of destruction behind, as that's the very point of the job - no transaction is without a loser in that trade. They are not win-win negotiators.

12
up

In a sea of ignorant comments, this is a stand-out.

Simply put...
Someone who trades on volatility is never in it for the long term.

Kate, that is a howler. By far the least informed comment you have made here.

Translated - "I'm a paid up National Party member and even though you may have a point, I will try and shoot you down anyway"

No, Retired Poppy, it’s the comments on Sir John Key’s profession. Kate shows no understanding of what he actually did prior to Politics. Some day when it’s quiet we should have a go at taking a random profession and running it down. I’d start with teachers as I can’t recall anyone I’d pay for the unique knowledge they imparted. If you can do, if you can’t, teach.

ALL of my professors could also DO,

So Kate, you’re suggesting the Key’s skills related solely to having once, a long time ago, been a foreign exchange dealer and a very successful one at that - what did you do when you were young - does it define you ? really really simplistic not thought through, or simply bias statement

What you do when you are young definitely does not define you. But ones entire work background definitely shapes your skills/capabilities and worldview - especially if you stay in one profession and one sector for all of your career. From what I gather, that's pretty much JK, isn't it? He started out as an FX trader with Elders here in NZ, and then worked in FX trading, again within the merchant banking sector overseas?

I don't have anything against FX traders per se, although of course I am mindful of his 'smiling assassin' nickname which may have served to somewhat slant my view of his management style/experience.

I could well be wrong about the breadth of JK's work experience, it could have been much more varied, but if it was pretty much merchant banking only, and within that sector working on foreign exchange markets predominantly, that's a very, very narrow field of vision and expertise.

Well, I have something against FX 'traders'. They're parasitic. Nothing constructive is done, yet they can buy condo's - which must have been underwritten in the real resource/energy flow, by someone else doing something real.

And there are an awful lot of people doing all sorts of things, which are similarly parasitic, and a host of others which are parasitic but at least socially-useful.

you're right in one aspect, he had fabulous knowledge in growing the nation's debt

TM2,

Kate's comments below sum up Key's talents very accurately. She was clearly too polite to comment on your assessment of our own capabilities,but I am not. I have seen lots of your posts and and one thing that certainly doesn't shine through is intelligence..

the last word in your statement would be too big for him to read

@ Linklater. Made my day!

Except pet cats or rats can out perform traders on chance alone. Having capital to gamble with initially, through clients or other means, is a far greater indicator of success. That and having the confidence a global bank or taxpayers have your back when the cookies crumble.

Couldn't think of a better White Knight to help ANZ Bank mitigate its overexposure to NZ property!

25
up

It is surprising how many natural national supporters I speak to who have little time for John Key and who view his premiership as one long wasted opportunity. These are people who can see beyond the credit bubble. They may have a house in Epsom but they also have children and they are concerned about what happens when their children have to enter the property market. They want their kids to have their own homes and start their own families at the earliest opportunity and at a time of their chosing without having a financial millstone around their necks. They are realising that a real estate bubble is fools gold

11
up

Yes one of my dad's best mates is one of NZ's wealthiest men, a nat through and through. He ended up being very disappointed in Key.

I’m not surprised. Key made a devils bargin for power. He got the fancy chairs but ceded the policy to Labour by stealing and implementing theirs. This won him elections but what is the point if you are implementing the other guys policy.

Look at what they ran on, in their second election their big policy asset sales. They had nothing else and did nothing else. Then in the glorious third term they rolled out Key’s legacy project - the flag referendum.

The purpose of a right wing party is to cut taxes and in nine years they didn’t do it. The economy was tough, fair enough. But they also passed on doing the hard things like raising the age for NZ super that might have allowed taxes to be lower in the future.

Funny Bobster, I suspect I know a lot “natural national supporters” than you, and don’t know one who does not think Key did an outstanding job through through two massive crisis, one global and one local - yours will be a minute survey I suspect.

Yes he gets credit for the depositor guarantee. Yes he provided good words of assurance during the earthquake but was there really must else outstanding about his performance? Was it something better than anyone else could have done? No. Just quietly, I am not sure the Christchurch rebuild will in retrospect be viewed as an unalloyed success. And compare that to where we currently are with household debt and this real estate bubble. We are now swinging in the wind of the credit markets, we are very badly exposed. And for what purpose exactly? So we can sell houses to each other at ever higher prices in exchange for ever bigger IOUs? What a waste of our time. No I think I’ve got it right, there are a significant number of nominal national voters and swing voters who thought the key government was a road to nowhere and a big missed opportunity

13
up

John Key. The Steve Urkel of New Zealand politics "did I do that?".

Rubbish, John Key did a lot of good for NZ.
The Natioanal government is king compared to this rabble, who have not got a clue how to run anything!
They have done absolutely nothing good or beneficial for the country so far.
All talk and no substance, idealists without any ability and it shows everyday.
Did anyone actually know what Winston do while he was in charge, that’s rkght as much as he has done since he has been in parliament.

14
up

OK, so list them here. And I mean actual hard data not your "feelings" - c'mon.

Maybe start with how he measured up to what he promised before he got elected...

1. Closing the productivity gap with Australia
2. Declining home ownership rates in NZ....http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0708/S00336.htm

Then maybe start on GDP per capita yada yada...house price inflation, private debt levels.

hello....anybody there...hello?

Yes by all objective measures he didn't do a great job.
But under his watch the 1% (maybe 5-10%) did very nicely, thanks.

Well let's judge them in a year I say.
Let's see if they deliver on:
- KB
- foreign buyer ban
- reducing migration
- introducing new measures to unleash housing development (in particular new infrastructure funding and financing tools)
These things can't be done overnight.
But sure, I will be critical too if they underwhelm in these areas. I am not a Labour apologist

Well let's judge them in a year I say.
Let's see if they deliver on:
- KB
- foreign buyer ban
- reducing migration
- introducing new measures to unleash housing development (in particular new infrastructure funding and financing tools)
These things can't be done overnight.
But sure, I will be critical too if they underwhelm in these areas. I am not a Labour apologist

Well let's judge them in a year I say.
Let's see if they deliver on:
- KB
- foreign buyer ban
- reducing migration
- introducing new measures to unleash housing development (in particular new infrastructure funding and financing tools)
These things can't be done overnight.
But sure, I will be critical too if they underwhelm in these areas. I am not a Labour apologist

Yeah cannot be done overnight but 10 months is not overnight and if you see the process are trying to delay though can be done withing time frame. Wake up all supporters.

Your mate Mikey seems to think that Winston is now The Man. Is that why you're no. 2?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12098197

Reading between the lines the Hosk is throwing shade on Taxinda, rather than lauding the man some call political pus.

We do we find similar forecasts, who runs the numbers here.
There's is $16,700 each?

The 30,000 cut in the immigration intake will cost the federal budget $500 million a year, a Treasury briefing obtained by Fairfax Media shows.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/immigration-cut-to-cost-500-mill...

11
up

John Key's biggest failure was his reluctance to accept that New Zealand had a housing issue and that it needed to be dealt with. All it has done is make it a huge task for Labour to sort out which they will do in due course and that will give them at least one extra term in power.

I doubt the current government will sort out the housing issues in the next 2 years and a bit, so "they will get another term" as you say

I think prices will dip in their first term, partly a result of their policies (Eg. KB, foreign buyer ban).
But I agree, save a nasty economic shock, that really meaningful lasting outcomes will not be achieved in their first term.

His big failure was to sort out the rapidly worsening Local Govt-imposed regulatory restrictions on house building - costing something like $160k per house (in Auckland) now, that have pushing house build costs (and rest of market) up by ~25%. But in fairness Labour haven't done anything about that either.

House consents went up from about 10000/year under Clark to about 30000/year under National, the latter rate being enough to cope with ongoing pop increase.

Infrastructure lag is a big problem, but pretty hard to stay on top of that when you are mired in fallout from GFC and earthquakes. The population increase will have positive impact over the long term - growing size on NZ's internal markets, gaining youthful taxpayers, and increasing tax base.

And productivity. Everything the NZ economy did was about adding more - more people, more cows, more debt. But they never did the risky things that might have changed the paradigm. In the case of housing that was more government intervention a la Kiwibuild. But there are other areas where they could have pushed.

We are a relatively tiny population of not outstandingly smart or capable people vast distances (in time and money) away from both supply chains and markets, entirely lacking in the deep skills and industrial bases that allows countries to lead tech fields. To dream that we are just going to happen upon some big earning industry or speciality that won't be quickly taken away by bigger countries with larger industrial bases and lower labour cost is just not realistic. We can work at fringe and niche industries and on manufactured products that the world cares little about, but our mainstays will always be agriculture, fisheries, tourism and mining.

The big tech change that could boost NZ is to create cheap supersonic international flight, or cut the cost of airfreight to 20-30% of current to make our fresh produce internationally competitive in Northern winter.

Being mired in fallout did not happen by chance, cutting the top tax rate synthesised a larger hole in Crown revenue than the Christchurch earthquake caused in expenditure.

He was totally disingenuous (at best) on housing. When he was first elected it was partly on acknowledging a housing crisis, and doing something about it. And then he proceeded to do little about it.
I think in time his achievements will be viewed less favourably than they are now.

13
up

An economy built on rising house prices was always going to be a house built on sand. It is a shame John Key didn’t have this candour when he was PM. If he had, we might have taken some of the hard decisions which would really have helped with productivity.

He did , John Key is on record as having said that people should not rush in a buy overpriced houses and get a huge amount of mortgage debt .................. he actually gave warning of this as PM .

He even suggested that young people should lower their aspirations and buy cheaper apartments

I feel a great big "I told you so" coming on where John Key is concerned.
Aside from that, one of the funniest comments columns I've read anywhere, the top half anyway, many LOLs.

that cartoon makes Key look like Oswald Cobblepot

John Key was the best PM I have experienced in my entire life ..........

Perhaps the greatest in human history. Only time will tell.

11
up

I guess if smiling and waving and peeing in the shower are high on your list of prerequisites.

you left out "pony tail" pulling

He should be on his knees every day giving thanks that his blatant sexual harassment of that woman, and icky fondling of little girls' hair didn't come out a bit later, when that kind of offending had caught up with the likes of Harvey Weinstein.

Oops

Really Boatman?

'the best PM I have experienced in my whole life'

That sounds like a very 'intimate' relationship that you had there.

::cue maudlin 70s ballad and soft-focus video of them running hand and hand along the beach, then stopping to kiss passionately, ankle-deep in the surf, heedless of the pollution washing around them due to inadequate sewage infrastructure ::

@Nic Johson , name a PM who has done a better job since in the past 60 years

Well... John Key and National did nothing more or less different than Helen Clark and Labour in their previous 9 year term with equal results.

So, which one did better, Helen Clark or John Key?

Rereading the question we've only had 2 PM's since Key. Bill English achieved nothing and what has Jacinda done? Oh, hasn't she curbed immigration and slowed the rate of house price "growth". Jeez, she's done a better job than Key in 10 months than he did in 9 years. Hahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahaha.

you have a pretty low standard

He was not even the best for National. In fact comparing with many other National PMs he was a disgrace. Lacking long term memory or history is not a great start to build a foundation of idolisation on.

Sir Key is just being a DGM here ;-)

Households have borrowed a lot over the last decade or so and that is absolutely slowing down. You're starting to see an increase in [loan] delinquencies ..

Do you have any numbers to back your loan delinquency argument ? You are just trying to talk down our rock-star economy and housing market !

There is evidence of more loans being recognized as impaired coming through in quarrterly Bank reports .

This is still quite low to be fair , but the trend line is there .

ok thanks. I thought the conditions are not that bad to have loan delinquency (yet) ! so was curious

Oh Thats right. Article UPDATEDMr Key was commenting about overseas delinquency , not NZ . We are still safe and rock-star

Asked about Key's comments, an ANZ NZ spokeswoman told interest.co.nz: "Sir John Key, who also sits on the ANZ Group Board out of Australia, was mostly referring to overseas trends. As Sir John said, in New Zealand overall mortgage lending growth has slowed in recent years. There has been some seasonal increases in delinquency rates for investor properties but overall these remain at record lows. This is considered a normal part of the credit cycle."

Greg can you explain our discussion of the other day about the 'credit cycle' to the specu-debtors

LOL ! I think they all know in theory about cerdit cycle. As I have mentioned earlier, they all believe it will somehow go on forever, because of powerful bankers and policy makers.

But when Mr Key says so...... things could take a different direction.

How to grow an economy by John Key:

1) Import unprecedented numbers of lowly skilled people.
2) Allow any speculator from around the world to launder their money in our housing market.
3) Drop interest rates drastically.

And voila!

Again, governments don't set interest rates the Reserve Bank does and it's independent from the government

But government creates the environment which dictate the level of interest rate

Fiscal policy influences the economy, it doesn’t control it. Labour hasn’t changed fiscal policy in any meaningful way since National left. Therefore, any changes are externally driven or in the case of business confidence, imaginary.

Yes, but the RB also sets macroprudential policy. I think the RB is limited for macro policy by the political support it receives from govt. There is a far closer relationship than there is for interest rate policy. The degree of macro pru stability desirable in a banking system is a legitimate political issue. I also think the property investment issue is largely driven by tax policy which is wholly political.

I loved his memory lapses , "What BMW's " oh those ones , he certainly got away with a lot the cheeky chappy from a state home .

How to grow and economy by Jacinda Ardern & co. :

1) Promise to not import lots of lowly skilled people, then do it anyway.
2) Promise to stop any speculator from around the world to launder their money in our housing market, but then do nothing about it.
3) Introduce a bunch of taxes/fees/levies which will of course make us wealthier!

The only new tax so far is the fuel tax isn't it? Assuming that is spent on transport projects, and assuming they all have benefits that outweigh costs, then yes it should make us wealthier.

I'm surprised to see so many anti John Key comments on this site. I say that because it doesn't reflect the very high preferred Prime Minister polls, when he was in power. The logical conclusion is that there is a majority of left leaning commenters on this site, which surprises me again, because this site is a business site.

Yeah blame JK for those sentimental feelings

So you think the audience of a website dedicated to questions of finance which, no disrespect to the proprietors, is only relevant to people with money, is left leaning and made up of a bunch of socialists. I think you are seeing the world to simply. Plus, Mr Key was pretty left leaning himself based on how many Labour Party policies he stole.

Yvil, don't take it so personally. Maybe you need to face an earth shattering possibility the country is now leaning left - "WAAAAH"

You may be surprised, many of the adverse comments will be coming from people who normally vote national

Yup

Yvil,

So in your somewhat blinkered little world,you can't be both a businessman/woman and be left leaning. Well, quite apart from the logical fallacy-there is no necessary connection between the two as some just don't like Key and i am of that number-many successful business people have environmental and social concerns that align them with left of centre policies.
There is a growing global movement in business-the B(benefit) Corporation and Synlait Milk will be NZ's first quoted company to seek accreditation as one. It will not be the last.
I spent most of my working life as a small businessman,but have increasingly found myself at odds with right wing policies. i found Key to be as trustworthy as Blair.having said that,I don't like Peters and i think it quite possible that National will be back in government after the next election. At least Bridges has accepted the reality of anthropogenic climate change-something that many in his party still reject.

you must move in completely different circles to me linklater01. I have thousands of business contacts, and can honestly say I have yet to speak to anyone who thinks the current ramble will be good for NZ. And the vast majority think Key was the best PM in neigh on 50 years. But hey they must all be imbeciles.

What's 'good for nz' and good for business are not one and the same

Straight from the horse's mouth eh Kane?

It's nigh not neigh, unless of course you were talking to equestrian types, in which case I'd say they were asses.

Ah equine puns, the gift that keeps on giving, up until the point you rapidly run out of horsey gags....

Wow Yvil, just when I thought Boatman had issues. Mental gymnastics much?!

There there Yvil, don't cry.

'high level of poll rating''.. that is because the majority that bothered to do the survey were property speculators.. others couldnt be bothered, as it didnt make a difference

@ Yvil,
lol, it is Beat JK day, and people are venting out all sorts of nonsense...
most is laughable, the rest is disgusting...
but Hey, I am sure they will feel better by letting it out ....just like they feel good when they insult others... lol

11
up

i understand its insulting when facts are thrown at you

Eco Bird, Key is pretty much suggesting those ""alleged" unbanked gains he handed you on a platter are about to spring an even bigger leak. You'll next say property is a looooooong term investment and any capital gains are just icing on the cake.

It's been entertaining watching the speculator/Landlords language shifting in recent times, mostly driven by embarrassment.

So somehow it's ok for you to hurl abuse at 'Taxinda' and her 'COL loser' supporters but when others do the same to your dear John it's 'disgusting'
Sounds a lot like double standards to me.

Sir John was and still is a proven leader. Taxinda hasn’t shown a jot of leadership ability. Her captains call on Taranaki oil showed her weakness in that she couldn’t face debate and bring the people with her, just the minority that voted for her in the hope their trough would be filled. Cowardly behaviour is the word that comes to mind.

I agree that Jacinda totally fluffed the call on oil and gas exploration. It wasn’t something NZF wanted, it was a sop to the greens. It was a first class opportunity for her to try to appeal to the centre ground and build her own mandate, which is what I think she needs to do to really succeed, and she completely fluffed it. She looked very weak. Or maybe she’s just dumb. I don’t know

Sorry Bobster - but do you have children? Grandchildren?

They gonna thank you for burning all their fossil heritage, leaving them the unmitigated consequences to fix (without the energy to do the fixing, mind) and the depleted dregs of the resources to do stuff with?

She's not dumb - she probably knows what I spout hereabouts, but can only pust things so far at a time. If we were a more informed nation, she could move faster....

Do try to learn some basic logic. Unimpressed by JK =/= left-leaning.

Do you also think that if somebody says that they're not keen on dark rum, that means that they therefore must love chardonnay? Because that doesn't follow.

Why do all you John Key haters think he's been knighted?

Personally I don't give a shit about knighthoods. It's such an antiquated thing. John no doubt loves it, as he is a man who loves status.
There's been a few 'sirs' over the years whose legacy hasn't looked so brilliant with time.

Here's a few;
Sir Philip Green
Sir Fred Goodwin
Sir Rolf Harris
Sir Jimmy Saville
Sir Robert Mugabe

Good one!

My, he's in stellar company, is he not?

John's knighthood could be similar to becoming a Cardinal. Great for the ego until the followers of the Church realise what you've been doing to your children behind closed doors.

Its standard practice, anyone that serves as PM gets a gong. Its the golden handshake for a PM. Name the last PM that didn't get a title after leaving parliament.

In fact, if you are thinking the honours mean something, why didn't JK get Order of NZ (a higher ranked honour) like Helen Clark did? Heck, JK ranks lower than Richard Hugh McCaw.

Check NZ and British culture a bit. You are showing how foreign to it you really are. Actors and sports players get knighthoods also for passing fancy. They are like cars, you can collect enough of them but they are as meaningless these days as status symbols and do not mean you can drive or repair them. I think you need a dose of the Monty Pythons. Even the Queen gets mooned.

Thanks Pacifica, you're right I am foreign to British culture and to be honest, it's true I really don't care about it

Ok, yet you hassle people about knighthoods? There is a way to grade morality & social standing. Doing it on the grounds of fame & wealth generally has not had great social outcomes for everyone. But then again I advise on learning about history least we get caught having to cover the bills for repeating past mistakes & genocide. 'Lest we forget' is key to the society you live in now. But then again I should take a page out of the Monty Python's too. This thread, much like the parrot, is well and truly dead. It is an ex-thread.

Sir John is one of the most popular and greatest PM's in NZ history. He has been very well received globally and should be knighted ASAP.

Double guzzler you are nothing if not a comic.

DGZ hasn't yet awoken to the news Sir John Key is already a Knight.

Shonkey wanted to remove the Union Jack from our flag but the hypocrite was happy to take that British based Knighthood

How to keep rockstar economy booming.By whom?...... Your guess as good as mine

.1.Bring in loads of migrants...... from China especially who can bring heaps of $$$ .Don't bat an eyelid on the sources of $$$,dubious though they seem.

2.Let the incoming flow of $$ pump up the housing market until its unaffordable to locals.You will soon a have sellers in the provinces clamoring for Chinese buyers to bring in the Auckland effect

3.Keep smiling always,while saying nice things but doing the opposite

4. Run off to Hawaii to play golf if you begin to feel the heat.Or throw in a flag-referendum to distract people from the woes on which the lid cannot be kept for too long.

5.And if the heat is unbearable, sell off your house ( ahem,part of it actually) & collect a cool $20 million.Resign your public post and scoot off to enjoy retirement with plum directorships.

Will above work?Of course it does.How on earth did I last 9 years if it did not!!

Yes how people couldn't see this at the time is beyond me. It's so hypocritical of Mr Key since he facilitated the sell off of NZ to foreign buyers through any means possible.

From trying to rebrand NZ by trying to change the flag to make us more palatable for foreign owners. To having extremely weak money laundering rules most of which are still to come in to effect. And now he's predicting mortgage delinquency and repossessions.

Also wondering will we see a similar effect that has been happening in Canada, where the Chinese government has allowed their banks to repossess homes off shore. Yes all those 1% mortgages not to mention the shadow banking could all collapse now that they are under the tariff pressure.

Key led a government that handled the Christchurch rebuild disastrously.
Would Labour have done any better? Possibly not.
But it was/is still a debacle.

Actually even I will admit it takes real skill and effort to fail that badly, to the point deaths & suicide numbers jump, (it takes years to build up to those results). Most politicians only have a budget overspend & dissatisfied opposition voters to deal with. Completely cocking up housing repair claims to that degree is just widespread fraud. It literally has to be malicious because even the stupid could see how wrong it is.

my take on it, now he is chairman of ANZ he is seeing how current policies are hurting his bank, lower immigration and less overseas selling of houses to push prices up leading to a slowdown in credit growth, so he is becoming public again to help the nats resume power so we can resume the "growth" needed to improve profits for his new masters

lower immigration and less overseas selling of houses to push prices up leading to a slowdown in credit growth.

Interesting perspective.. different to what I understood reading this website & comments. So u saying the 'credit' as such does not have a limit or control? Is it just about less people means less credit??

less customers = less sales, credit from banks is sold like any other product, that is why bank employess now have it as part of their wages a measure on sales pushed.
and as head of sales he now needs to use his influence to set the conditions for more customers,

hmmmm.. not ideal !
so bring more people to sell more credit ? that sounds like really selfish strategy . And how his statement that 'downturn is coming soon' will help the credit-salesmen ?
And bringing more people without providing infrastructure and housing facilities, to sell credit ! wow thats insane

But, but, NZ is a rock star.

What happened to all the other rock stars (other than Keith Richards) after ODing on their drug of choice?

So is this Key jawboning a currency play? Has he shorted the Kiwi?

The Nats did not manage us well through the GFC at all - they borrowed an extra $80 billion to get us through it and propped up the economy with mass migration. At least Key is just admitting that Winston was right when he predicted global headwinds. How long till Judith rolls Simon - 6 months?