National nose-dives in new poll to the point Labour and Greens wouldn't need NZ First to form a government; Collins receives more support than Bridges

National nose-dives in new poll to the point Labour and Greens wouldn't need NZ First to form a government; Collins receives more support than Bridges
Jacinda Ardern, Simon Bridges by Jacky Carpenter

National has taken a hit in the latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll, falling below Labour for the first time since the poll began 12 years ago.

Support for National is down 3.5% from the last poll conducted in May 2018, to 41.6%, while support for Labour is up 4.9% to 47.5%.

Labour has polled so strongly that with the backing of the Greens, it wouldn’t need New Zealand First to form a government.

The poll sees Labour take 60 seats in the house - one short of having enough to govern on its own - and National only 53.

National Leader Simon Bridges has been overtaken by National MP Judith Collins in the preferred prime minister ranks.

Support for Bridges has fallen 3.9% to 5.0%, while support for Collins is up 2.5% to 6.2%.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is way ahead at 41.8% - support for her increasing by 1.6% since May.

The Greens are sitting just above the 5% threshold at 5.1%, having slipped back 0.6%. 

New Zealand First is at 2.9% - up 0.5%.

Act is at 0.4% (up 0.2%), the Maori Party 0.8% (down 0.1%), the Conservatives 1.1% (no change) and The Opportunities Party 0.5% (down 1.1%).

The poll was conducted between January 24 and February 2 - just after Ardern received lots of attention on the world stage at Davos. It has a 3.1% margin of error.  

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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99 Comments

17
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Nice one! And as for the numerous predictions here the Coalition would implode within six months of the election? Couldn't be proved more wrong!

While Simon's at the helm, National will only suffer more poll driven nosebleeds.

Simon says, bye bye!

Meanwhile,Judith is quietly sharpening her knife and waiting for the appropriate Et to Brute? moment.

I hope so as that will guarantee 3 terms if not 4 for Labour. Meanwhile Bridges is pretty ikky so no loss.

Seems like the less you actually do, the better you poll. All those Woman's Weekly photo shoots look to be paying off. Does National have anyone who can do women's magazine and late night tv talk show interviews? Apparently that's all that gets the populace's attention these days.

22
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Do you read a lot of Women’s Weekly magazines? Or are you just having a melt down?

That formula if true should come as no surprise.

We just had eight years of it with John Key.

That's what I find so funny about people making this claim about Jacinda - is that John Key started it.

19
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Nats need something that will appeal to ‘the new poor’ ie. the huge number of middle income earners on struggle street.
Elections are won or lost on the middle.
Giving people $20 extra per week through tax cuts won’t cut it.
Their previous ideas about freeing up planning rules to bring market house prices down miserably failed. So what will it be this time? I am fascinated.
I suggest they are bereft of anything meaningful beyond their stale centre-right rhetoric.

I think if they can come up with a "capital gain tax" solution acceptable to most , they may have a chance. Presuming Labour doesn't , I don't think staying with the status quo is a winnable option.

Are you sure that the middle are on struggle street? To me it feels like less well off people have had a good kicking (no pay rises, house prices out of reach, increased excise taxes, increased rent, etc) but the people in the middle have had 10 years of good economic growth, low unemployment, massive house price growth, low inflation, etc. Maybe the middle are feelin OK and want to share the love with those being kicked?

17
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Younger middle income people, that don’t own homes and can’t afford them, and are generally whacked by NZ’s high cost of living

23
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Yes and a certain party was telling that group they should be celebrating the fact that house costs are so high....Absolute definition of being completely out of touch - but guess the truth was they were only serving one part of society and only in the present time frame - not NZ as a whole, and not into the future.

My family are the new poor... I don’t expect sympathy!
Above average incomes, but with two kids and the cost of living the $$$ doesn’t go far at all.

26
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In my opinion John Key is one big fraud. He first got elected on, amongst other things, fixing the housing mess. It got decidedly worse on his watch. It will take me a long time to take the national party serious again...

11
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I think John Key is probably highly intelligent - but probably not very wise. Smart enough to get elected and be popular - but will probably leave a mess behind him. Rode the wave of support well - which in reality was probably just credit creation post GFC which made everyone (or part of society) feel a bit giddy because of how rich they were getting on paper - very little to do with National Party and good policy - just fortunate timing in the business cycle post recession.

25
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Key will go down as one of New Zealand's worst PM's in a century. He only wanted the job as a tick on his CV. There was no effort by him and his party to make a positive difference to the country. For him it was about retaining power for the Nat's and for him, a prolonged oportunistic vanity project. He was all image and little substance. I rate him as bad as Muldoon.

For me, far worse than Muldoon.

for all of muldoons bad decisions he did leave behind some future positives for NZ
the clyde dam
the oil and gas industry in taranaki
marsden point
nz steel
i cannot think of one thing JK has left that will be his legacy item.
you can name something every top politician has left behind, that is the whole point of gaining power
david lange nuclear free, Cullen fund, jim Anderton kiwibank, WP supercard, jim bodger MMP, roger douglas rogernomics helen clark WFF, micahel savage social welfare state

His legacy would have been changing the flag, but that didn’t go ahead. His biggest regret out of 8.5 years as PM.

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/national/john-key-reveals-failure-to-ch...

Yes I think he saw it as the first step in getting part of the Chinese flag incorporated into our own

At least Muldoon had vision and ambition.

Not only that, he was practically a genius with an IQ of 160. Yeah he was a bully, but he had all the good will in the world for New Zealanders.

Different days then though. He was the first one to master and harness the power of television. Came across by chance a full record of a debate where, in opposition to the Kirk government, he was attacking the Dairy Board performance in the UK. It was scintillating stuff. Absolutely researched, prepared and presented, facts and figures. We have nothing like that anywher in parrliament today, quite the opposite. As PM in fact for the first half of it, he wasn’t too bad at all. Just had too many yes men around him and it spiralled out of touch, power at any cost etc.

Holiday highway....to his bach at Omaha?

15
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For anyone who thinks your comment is wrong or off base, it's easy to sum it up in simple terms - political capital. John Key had bucket loads of it, and never 'spent' any of it by doing unpopular - but correct - things. Instead he always strove to be popular, and watered down stolen Labour policies.

He didn't lead the country in any real sense, he was just the figurehead.

Hit the nail on the head there.

10
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National's policy decisions around taxation and direct foreign investment created the "new poor" so I doubt they'll be receptive to anything from that party. Even with relentless negative innuendo from the Herald LGNZF are still doing relatively well.

No. It was their lack of diligence in reining in the forces of normal regulatory and bureaucratic expansion (empire building) and Nimby enablement that has driven up the cost of house building and home ownership and renting. Not forcing local govt to focus on delivering timely infrastructure development to enable growth has cost us all dear.

Coalition is doing nothing to improve things in this regard either - they won't even acknowledge the problem. Though they clearly know it is a problem as they are talking of excluding themselves from being subject to usual rules to avoid some of the regulatory impediments to house building.

Don't worry. National will campaign on law and order, its bound to get them into power. Judith Collins will then set about imprisoning the bulk of the population to keep her corporate prison lobbyists happy. The new poor won't need homes then so everyone wins! Vote National...go to jail!

UK Conservatives are looking at interesting reforms around challenging vested interests and addressing the housing crisis. Maybe there will be lessons for National there?
https://medium.com/land-buildings-identity-and-values/japanese-urbanism-...

Collins at 6.2 vs Bridges at 5, is hardly a mandate for change. Probably best to stick with him till Someone more appealing becomes apparent.

Yip I reckon they wait until National Party is polling at 30% before they make any change.

I can’t see how they could win with Collins. Surely she would have to alienate a good 10% or more of current national supporters, even if the other 90% like her. Personally I think Bridges is the best of a bad bunch (or Nicky Kaye if she was keen)

Agree - National have put me off voting for them for now after the last decade... (who knows if they get their policy right I might go back there), but Nicky Kaye at the helm makes it a much more appealing idea. And I think she might be the only option National have that could compete with Adern.

nicky kaye has no show of leadership with the internal politics at play, she has next to no support
BUT she beat jaccinda three elections in a row so has appeal to the masses

Just goes to show that the current National core MP's might well just be a bunch of self licking ice-cream cones. They wouldn't possibly support someone who might be more popular than themselves and capable of competing with Adern - you know, for the future of the party...(and not own selfish endeavors)

I would strongly advise anyone who has had a cancer history not to put themselves in such a stressful position as that. That job or the prospect of being PM should not outweigh your overall health.

Sort of agree, Collins gets love from the right and is a good pitbull, but has too many who actively dislike her to be a winning leader. I didn't have much time for Bridges initially, but he appears methodical, diligent and capable int he house, has had to manage some difficult stuff (JLR), but hes' not gaining traction, media seem determined to sink him with repeated hit-jobs (like this weeks attempts to sink him with an incomplete quote from his teenage years). Kaye and Adams would be the obvious next choices to not turn-off the centre voters should it come to it but don't seem particularly dynamic either.

Probably worth waiting out another 6-12months with Bridges to see if he can turn it around. But should be working to raise profile of likely successor should that not work.

Notable that Ardern is no longer the media's darling either, and there are a few festering sores in coalition that will come to fore again when Parliament resumes sitting, January tends to always boost incumbents due to lack of news. Still a great result for Labour. Surprising for Greens and Deserved for NZF.

Collins at 6.2%?

I hadn't realised Oravida had so many Kiwis on staff.

Simon is in trouble. Despite this, I think National’s poll numbers will rise when the CGT debate really kicks off.

The chooks are coming home to roost for Winston. Shafted his base with the UN Migration Pact, now his stance on CGT will either be his saving grace or nail in the coffin.

What did TOP poll?

I'm a TOP member, and even I acknowledge that their taxation policies are nigh impossible to sell. But that's not what they are trying to do! They are trying to stimulate debate. They won't win a mandate on their own; never thought they would. But if they can be the 'lunatic' fringe of the taxation debate, it leaves a more moderate stage for others to suggest previously taboo solutions - like CGT, scrapping NG , reform Trusts etc.

Kudos to you for acknowledging that. But a political party not trying to get elected? Bwahhh! In that case they’re only good for stealing votes from the Greens and Labour.

If they’re trying to stimulate debate, why dont they promote their “wealth tax” in mainstream news interviews or on their website? I think they’re trying to keep it “secret” because they know how toxic it is.

"why dont they promote their “wealth tax” in mainstream news interviews or on their website?"
They do!
https://www.top.org.nz/top1
And as for MSM coverage, it's biased in favour of National ( or maybe you haven't noticed? John Campbell didn't get the chop from TV3 because he was on Nationals side, did he!). Watch 'Breakfast' on TV3 and see how Garner and Richardson behave! Or Tame on TV1. MSM is run, owned and staffed by Right leaning people. It's just the way it is. And giving another Party 'a go' isn't part of the game.

What!? That webpage is almost entirely about what is wrong with the current tax system and has very little explanation or detail about what their wealth tax actually is. Even on their own website they aren’t transparent. Wouldn’t be surprised if 50% of TOP voters couldn’t answer basic questions about the “wealth tax”.

I’ve seen TOP reps on The Nation and RNZ - No detail whatsoever about what their tax proposal would actually intail. Just vagaries about how the rich are getting rich off property and how the system should be fairer.

Please bw, don’t waste your vote on TOP. Unless you’d otherwise vote Greens - In that case, go ahead and waste it.

The greens wasn't a wasted vote - it help oust National
National has no hope unless it gets on with enviro and climate issues....we are only just awakening to the disaster that is unfolding and which will become more and more evident. If you are in denial, your gonna be out of the political race. It's called foresight.

Yes, a vote for the Greens isn’t wasted, which is why I’d rather his vote go to TOP if he would’ve otherwise voted Green. Greens would never enter coalition with National.

Gave TOP my vote once the polls showed Greens were over the 5%.

Actually I went the other way, gave Greens my Party vote to ensure they were there but the TOP MP my vote and she was the top TOP I think.

This time around I cant see myself voting Green so TOP/TOP, yes it might be a waste but the Greens have lost the plot IMHO.

Your vote for the Greens would've made a minor contribution to the number of seats they secured. Your vote for TOP counted for nothing.

Clearly JLR has taken 3.5% of the party vote with him.

heh.

Exactly who is surprised? There have been many of these before. Marshall, McLay & from the other side, Rowling sort of, Moore, Goff/Shearer. In my opinion only a naive over ambitious clot would have taken on this role. Perhaps for National it might be best that he will have come and gone before 2020. But just who replaces him? Well now, who can answer that as far as a potential winner?

Thats a shocker but the real issue is that National have no one in the wings that will make a decent leader, kind of where Labour were a few years ago before Jacinda came from nowhere. Could be a record low turnout at the next election with this current crop to choose from.

for all the talk about national refreshing whilst they were in power it was just smoke and mirrors, the front bench is still their from three terms ago, only a couple of new faces and they have no appeal
there biggest problem is the internal politics and the couple of people that could match jaccinda for appeal have no chance with the current leadership group making sure they keep their jobs at all cost

derp wrong post

The final straw for me was seeing the video of Simon as a teenager saying he wasn't a fan of homosexuality - but his haircut was suggesting otherwise. I guess it might have been a young Nat special style at the time?

He’s certainly not as insecure these days, maybe he was the MP that Jamie Lee Ross had an affair with?

Jesus, you want to condemn someone for an 'incriminating' partial quote made as a (religious?) teenager in the early 90's? Homosexuality was only made legal in 1986 and the times were very different. He said he wasn't into homosexuality but that he thought (his?) teacher was gutsy to come out.

Nothing but a slimy media hit job.

Agree Foyle - when I saw it on TV I didn't think it was appropriate from any angle....quiet news day. Enjoyed seeing the haircut more than anything else.

National Party Top 10

• Bridges
• Bennett
• Adams
• Collins
• McClay
• Mitchell
• Goldsmith
• Kaye
• Brownlee
• Guy

Does anything strike you as problematic about that list?

11
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Will National leaders still say that Housing Crisis is a Good crisis - Sign of prosperity.....laughing at people who were trying to get into their first home but were being outbid by foreigners and speculators.

If Labours does a balancing act with Capital Gain tax like they did with foreign buyer.. May get majority by themselves.

They effectively treated a decent chunk of NZ with disdain

Particularly in the case of the likes of Nick Smith telling aspiring FHBs to just piss off and die in a ditch, they were alienating their own future constituency. Good thinking, Nats.

i think the CGT will be a problem, it will have more holes than a sieve and those that can not afford a good tax accountant will pay the biggest share, the urber wealthy will have structures to reduce there bill

13
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Nats have to sort out their image of being in the pocket of president Xi. Get their Chinese spy MP to say something critical of the Chinese Communist party - their are plenty possibilities: organ harvesting, concentration camps for a million Muslims, Tibet, etc. Do that and then they transfer the issue to Labour who will have to explain why Raymond Huo never criticizes China and raises so many party donations from Chinese front organisations.

Those concentration camps are a shocker. Just amazing how the west including NZ is effectively turning a blind eye to it. Sad

Yeah, it's shite. But that's realpolitik. We open our mouths and our economy gets massively shafted, and nothing would change in China. We just aren't big enough to have the luxury of telling them off.

I don't understand how people don't see this. Every Chinese NZ resident is basically under the thumb of the CCP if they have relations back 'home' who can be threatened. A lot of them have been brainwashed by the CCP and have a Chinese-supremacist attitude. A friends workmate is actually sending his kid back to school in China (their state pays for it) because the kid is acting "too kiwi". Seems like a 5th column to me.

China is the National Party, Pres Xi won't be happy, probably loading tanks on boats to come here and invade. Is that why the Air NZ plane turned back from Shanghai flight?

Minus 10 points to your Social Credit Score, The 4th Estate.

All kinds of allegations which were covered up. Remember how they cleared her on one minor thing and pretended that it applied to all the allegations, and people were dumb enough to fall for that. She's got way too many skeletons ready to fall out of the closets if they're investigated properly.

This is NZ - we are not capable of a proper investigation.

The Nats out of the limelight with an unpopular leader and still polling with 40 plus percent.
That in any bodies language is a great result.

My view of Labour is they are a mess. But also the Nats won't go anywhere untill they shake of their reputation of do nothing like last time they had the chance. Not looking good for that.
Nats will get traction only when the public see the Nats are interested in New Zealanders and see likely results in real incomes. That would be new - for both major parties.
Simon Bridges showed steady real leadership around the Ross fiasco. My opinion of him soared. But he and other contenders are still back with the Key attitudes.

The Greens will probably turn out to be National's saviour. Like the fall of the Clarke and Cullen government, they will eventually piss everyone off with their busy body policies telling people what to do all the time.

The choice is really between which is worst, not between which is best. Yes, they delude us by telling us what we want to hear, but in the end it's about whether we think the country is going forward or backwards.

Jacinda is getting top marks for defending our sovereignty against the CCP. Just as Clarke did over the Iraq invasion. There are deeper issues than the economy or climate change.

Jamie Lee Ross has well and truly shafted his own party. Don't think Collins is the answer. Nats need to win over the centre voters who've given Labour that extra 5-8%. She'll just frighten them even more. And I wouldn't write off Peters yet. He has a lot of levers to pull. But all kudos to Ardern and Robertson. Clarke and Cullen mk2, and that was a class act.

The biggest mistake was NZ First getting into bed with Labour/Greens. NZF is a middle of the road party more or less, and had they stayed independent as a third party they would have held a balance bewteen the Loonie Lefties, and the Rabid Right. They could have given their vote to Labour or National on a policy by policy vote and kept some sensible balance from extreme ideas. Most important they would have had their name up in lights the whole time, and not nosed dived to extinction as it appears they are doing now. NZF should break from the labour /Greens before it's to late and then only support them if they behave.

$1,000,000,000 a year seems to buy their support. Who would have thought? Having someone as cunning as Winston as Foreign Minister is probably no bad thing either.

Winston is at 2.9%. A look at me temper tantrum will commence in 3,2,1...

NZF hasn't polled above 5% since 2017. This is not new. Don't think Winston gives a toss - he's just riding his last gravy train to the end of the line.

I wish Jacinda could be the PM here across the ditch... Lucky NZ..! But Ex Expat will dispute this..

You are welcome to her. I expect she will be free circa 2020.

Doubt it very much. The coalition are far from perfect but I don't see National offering up a credible alternative.

I am in the same opinion, 2020 is only around the corner and the COAL is full steam ahead. The Nat on the other hand with their own internal bickerings and leadership issues, it will be at least 2026 before they even have a decent chance. Even Jamie LR and his mistresses is giving Fleetwood Mac a good run for their money!

Also don't underestimate the power of social media, JA has a huge under 18 followers, they will turn 18 in few years time and she will capture their attention.

Problem is that under 18's grow up, go to university or get a job and start to vote National.

I guess it's kind of w3t dream for the blue team..

There is often a 20-30 year lag between when they go to University/Work and start voting National.

Don't be so sure. My children are currently having shouting matches about Trump. The one that supports Trump tried to get me to pay $100 for the entry fee for a right of centre speaker (didn't catch the name). He will be 18 next year and vote. I'm so proud he didn't fall for the Taxinder visit to his school.

Do you have a 3-4m high wall around your house at Kohi? If so you may want to lower it down to 1.5m and let your kids see the (real) world!
#makeNZrealagain

Could cut little windows into the walls and install clear perplex panels like they do at preschools.

I said often.. not always. Some get brainwashed by mum and dad and never question it.. and that applies to both teams.

I'm in the top tax bracket so I should be under National's wing. But the inter-National party care about property speculators, pensioners and Chinese money. Salary earners are way down the list.

Under National things were getting worse for me and my peers. Expensive housing. Massive sell outs of housing and infrastructure to foreign owners. Free market capitalism? Duopoly supermarkets. Cartel building merchants. Red tape building standards and red tape urban planning.

Every dollar of my hard work is taxed yet they won't even go near do-nothing landlords and grey haired beneficiaries. National also kept working for families so I'm still paying for the degenerate breeders to farm babies.

The only things I really got were a few more clogged roads that hardly keep up with population growth, more ethnic takeaway shops, more foreign language spoken at the council pools but they did pretty well with the broadband (installed by underpaid immigrants of course).

The other parties are all a joke with their working groups, pork barrel funds and watermelon policies but inter-National are certainly not getting my vote.

I think next election when you sit down and reflect on what Labour has actually achieved and I'm expecting that to be nothing, its going to be impossible to vote for someone that makes you feel truly inspired. Usually I vote and then go to the local bakery for a pie and coffee but next time its probably straight to the pie shop.

Given they're all useless I think I will draw a big sausage on the ballot.

Draw a shit sandwich on the ballot then head to the pie shop.

pretty good summary of how a growing chunk of us feel.