Finance Minister announces new debt ceiling and surplus targets, new headline debt measure, and a later return to surplus than earlier targeted

Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced new fiscal rules for the budget, which include a debt ceiling of 30% of GDP and that surpluses will be kept within a band of zero to 2% of GDP.

As well, there will be a new debt measure that Robertson said would more closely align New Zealand with how debt is measured in other countries. It will include a wider range of both assets and liabilities, but will make the debt figure about 20 percentage points lower. The new measure will, for example, include the assets of the NZ Super Fund.

Robertson also told a pre-Budget business audience in Wellington that the Government would now not be returning to surplus till the 2024-25 year, which is a year later than was outlined in the last update prior to Christmas. The Budget is on May 19.

The new debt measure rule effectively means the debt ceiling the Government has announced would be 50% under the old measure and 30% under the new.

The Budget documentation will continue to publish the old measure, for transparency and the ability to make historical comparisons.

The zero to 2% surplus rule "will give us the flexibility to dip temporarily into a technical deficit from time-to-time for very specific reasons", Robertson said.

"We are not alone in toning down some of our expectations as a result of the [Ukraine] war and ongoing supply chain issues. The IMF has said global growth will average 3.5% over 2022, down from the 4.4% it had previously forecast in January.

"All that said, achieving a surplus within the next three fiscal years – at a quicker rate than National did after the Global Financial Crisis – is something I am proud to be able to do as Minister of Finance."

Asked by journalists after his speech about why he was changing the debt measure now, rather than five years ago when coming into Government, Robertson said he did talking to Treasury about the changes soon after coming in. But then the pandemic got in the way. He said he restarted conversation with Treasury this year. He denied the new rule was shifting the goalposts and he said it more accurately represented the financial position.

One of the early changes this Government made with its budgets was to move from an annual capital allowance to a multi-year capital allowance. It is now expanding this approach.

Previously Robertson has indicated that there will be two major areas of focus for new spending in the Budget: health and climate change.

And in his speech on Tuesday Robertson said in both cases the Government will be moving to multi-year funding allocations "to better control costs by allowing for longer-term planning".

Health funding will initially move to a two-year basis and later three years, while there will be a four-year rolling funding allowance for climate change spending.

The Government's also piloting three-year funding for two clusters of departments, in the Justice and Natural Resources areas.

Treasury has released a summary of its analysis and recommendations for the new rules.

This is the media release issued by the Minister:

·Surpluses will be kept within a band of zero to two percent of GDP to ensure new day‑to‑day spending is not adding to debt.

·A new debt measure to be introduced to bring New Zealand closer in line with other countries.

·A debt ceiling will ensure New Zealand maintains some of the lowest Government debt in the world, while giving greater room for investment in high quality infrastructure

Finance Minister Grant Robertson has unveiled new fiscal rules to ensure New Zealand continues to maintain a world-leading Government financial position.

“The Government was able to use our strong fiscal position to support New Zealanders through COVID with programmes like the Wage Subsidy Scheme. As we move to a new normal post the peak of COVID, it is the right time to resume a set of fiscal rules to carefully manage costs while planning for the future,” Grant Robertson said.

“Just as the previous National Government ran six annual deficits and increased debt following the Global Financial Crisis and Canterbury Earthquakes, we have done the same to protect New Zealanders from the effects of COVID-19.

“Add in the impact of the war in Ukraine, and the ongoing supply chain disruption as a result of continued COVID responses around the world, we are faced with running five years of deficits compared to National’s six. The first surplus since the 2018/19 year is expected in 2024/25.

“Once we reach surplus, the new fiscal rule will see the government committed to maintaining a small surplus in the range of zero to two percent of GDP over time. The range is based on advice from the Treasury. Surpluses will be measured using the operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL).

“That means as we enter the new-normal, the spending required to operate government services won’t be adding to Government debt. There will be allowances for significant shocks, and it is an average percentage so as to allow additional investment in a particular year if required.

“The surplus target will also be the primary rule that controls our spending decisions and will require a careful and balanced approach.

New debt measure

“Over a number of decades, the Treasury has published a suite of debt indicators and depending on circumstances the Government has focused on one of these indicators to formulate its fiscal strategy. The main headline measure has been net core Crown debt. Another one has been net core Crown debt including the assets of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund.

“The Treasury has now recommended that New Zealand starts using a headline measure closer to the international norm, that is more reflective of the real state of our fiscal position and so that we can accurately compare ourselves against others. The new measure includes a wide range of government assets (like the Super Fund and advances) and liabilities (including debt held by other Crown agencies like Kainga Ora).

“The new measure gives a headline net debt figure about 20 percentage points lower than the current one, but is more internationally comparable.

“I will ensure that the Budget documents continue to publish the old measure alongside the new measure for transparency and the ability to make historical comparisons for the time being.” Grant Robertson said.

The introduction of a debt cap

“Based on advice from the Treasury, the other aspect of our new fiscal rules will be a net debt ceiling for the Government that will ensure New Zealand maintains some of the lowest Government debt in the world,” Grant Robertson said.

“Under the old measure of net debt, the Treasury has recommended the ceiling be 50 percent of GDP. When we translate that to the new measure, so we can better compare it to other countries, that cap is 30 percent of GDP. It is a limit rather than a target, and again is flexible enough to allow a buffer against short-term shocks, while providing greater room for productive investment.”

The interaction of the two fiscal rules means that the additional debt cannot be used for day-to-day spending as that is limited by the surplus rule. This leaves the debt ceiling to guide capital investments needed in infrastructure to keep our economy moving.

“While this rule still gives us a comparably low level of net debt, it will provide fiscal space to fund high quality capital investments that improve productivity and wellbeing. As the Infrastructure Commission made clear yesterday, New Zealand has a gaping infrastructure deficit. In the past our debt targets have led to under investment in critical infrastructure. Our new approach means we be able to invest in long term, transformational projects that will support productivity and give certainty and security to businesses and households.

“In light of current inflationary pressures and capacity constraints we will not be increasing the planned multiyear capital allowance in Budget 2022. This will also give time to ensure that we are making future investments in the most effective and efficient way possible, in line with the Infrastructure Strategy.” Grant Robertson said.