Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is facing an internal and external fight this week - going up against a leaky caucus and a sharp decline in public confidence.
While the Government prepares to sign its highly anticipated free trade deal with India, the momentum is being overshadowed by another polling slump and reports of a group of "moaning" National MPs.
And in the background, NZ First and the Green Party released plans respectively to tackle the supermarket sector and electrification, while the public's economic confidence has experienced a large knock once again.
Leadership under pressure
Luxon is attempting to bat away more questions on his leadership after reports of discontent in his caucus surfaced again on Friday.
On Newstalk ZB on Monday morning Luxon put it down to those who were “frustrated, like there will be in any party, people who will have been either missed out for promotion, maybe in a marginal seat and understandably concerned and worried.”
“There are probably five people who are moaning and frustrated… people who I think could possibly be talking to media about their frustrations, that’s all I’m saying.”
Luxon said National MPs would be discussing discipline at Tuesday’s caucus meeting.
He said Transport Minister Chris Bishop was not part of it and had given him public and private reassurance.
Bishop appeared on Q+A on Sunday morning, repeatedly denying he was plotting to overthrow Luxon.
“Absolutely not.”
Bishop said, “obviously some people have been talking out of school.”
“That is not the right way to do things. That is unhelpful and untidy and indicates the National Party is focused on ourselves rather than focused on the country…" he said.
Another bad poll for National
Later that day, the latest 1News Verian Poll was released - National on 30%, facing a 4%-point drop from 1News’ last poll in February.
Labour rose by 5%-points to 37%, while the Green Party was on 11%, NZ First on 10%, ACT on 7%, Te Pāti Māori on 2% and the Opportunity Party on 3%.
For preferred PM, Labour leader Chris Hipkins was on 19%, Luxon on 16% and Winston Peters on 12%. Thirty one percent did not know.
The poll of 1010 New Zealand adults was conducted between April 11 and 15.
Economic pessimism jumped significantly, up 21%-points to 52%, while optimism dropped by 14%-points to 26%.
India FTA gets a date
While the India Free Trade Agreement has descended into a game of political football between Labour and National, legal verification has completed, with India and New Zealand agreeing its signing will take place on April 27.
Trade Minister Todd McClay said that signing the FTA “allows New Zealand to initiate a formal parliamentary treaty examination and means the public can scrutinise the agreement in full”.
Only a week ago, Labour accused National of pushing through what it described as a rushed, secretive deal. National denied this, saying Labour had ample consultation. National and ACT need Labour's support for the proposed FTA because NZ First, their coalition partner, isn't supporting the deal.
McClay said the Government would “follow the established parliamentary treaty examination process for the India FTA, allowing all parties to continue considering their support as the public also scrutinises the agreement.”
The FTA would give New Zealand tariffs either eliminated or reduced on 95% of exports to India, including immediate tariff elimination on sheep meat, wool, coal and 95% of forestry and wood exports.
NZ First and breaking up the supermarkets
NZ First is promising to “end the supermarket duopoly”, and break up Foodstuffs based on brand to make New World and Pak n’Save into two cooperatives in an effort to put both in competition with Woolworths.
“The role of the current toothless Groceries Commissioner, belatedly established by Labour in 2023, will also be reformed giving the position the proper powers to investigate, make binding decisions, and impose penalties directly - not just sit on the sidelines and give warnings,” Peters said.
Previous moves to create more competition and try to lower food prices through supermarket changes have appeared to stall, RNZ reporting last month notes prepared for meetings with supermarkets and potential entrants said the government was not consulting on policy options at the initial stage to break up the sector.
The focus instead went to changes in the Resource Management Act and the Overseas Investment Act to entice another player into the market.
The Greens' State of the Plant
The Green Party is calling for a national electrification plan to “electrify homes, transport and industry, ending New Zealand’s dependence on unpredictable global fossil fuel markets, cutting household power bills, and building real energy security at home”, co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said during Sunday's 'State of the Planet' speech.
"If we want a resilient economy, we've got to power it with homegrown sun, wind, water and geothermal energy. That doesn't need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz."
Part of that would be “cheap, easy loans” for solar panels, expanding public transport networks.
7 Comments
I really hope Luxon stays, as he's doing a great job of tanking support for national.
An easy solution for any leader of any party is to follow the story of the three blind mice and wave the carving knife. Thus if you are worried about your list position being precarious then put the work in to shore up the government, because continuing to moan out of self interest, will likely mean that you won’t even be in the shuffle for the next list.
As I said to my colleague last week, Luxo's happy place is somewhere closer to being in a leading role at NZTE or MBIE. Apart from that, he appears to be woefully out of his depth.
Jacinda loved this kind of stuff too, if only in the happy, smiley junkets overseas to have photo shoots with kiwifruit mascots.
The focus instead went to changes in the Resource Management Act and the Overseas Investment Act to entice another player into the market.
Why do they think the likes of Aldi want to invest in Aotearoa? It's never going to happen. Aldi invests in markets where there are opportunities in supply chain and breakdown of TAM (Total Addressable Market) components.
TAM: all potential demand in the category
SAM (Serviceable Available Market): portion of TAM you can reach given your product scope and distribution
SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): realistic share of SAM you can win in the near term
That's the big issue when retail also owns wholesale. Who's going to buy from their competitor.
End the supermarket duopoly - I tend to agree with the reply from Foodstuffs:
They said that, taking into consideration New Zealand’s taxes and transport costs, the cost of food was in line with “comparable international markets”.
“Breaking up the co-operatives would reduce those efficiencies, require significant duplication across supply chains, systems, and infrastructure, and ultimately increase costs. Those costs do not disappear and would flow through to prices at the checkout,”
By my guesstimates, food should be around 25% dearer than the US. 15% GST, 5% less economies of scale, 5% extra costs like transport and min wage.
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