National, NZ First and ACT would be able to form a government, according to the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, while Opportunity loses its Kingmaker position and Labour sees a slump in support.
Released on Monday, the Taxpayer's Union-Curia Poll for September showed National down 2.0 points to 29.0% while Labour was down 1.9 points to 25.9% - the party’s lowest result since July 2024.
| National | 29.0% | ↓ 2.0 |
| Labour | 25.9% | ↓ 1.9 |
| Green | 13.9% | ↑ 3.8 |
| NZ First | 8.4% | ↓0.7 |
| ACT | 10.5% | ↑ 3.2 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 2.0% | ↑0.5 |
| Opportunity | 4.5% | ↓1.6 |
| Others | 5.9% | ↓1.3 |
Opportunity Party, which last month enjoyed a surge in various political polls, suggesting they could pass the 5% Parliamentary threshold line and possibly be in a Kingmaker spot after the November 7 election, dropped 1.6 points to 4.5%.
The combined projected seats for National, NZ First and ACT is 64, up three seats, while the combined projected seats for Labour, the Greens, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori was 56 (down three seats).
Opportunity loses eight seats, putting them down to zero in this month's poll.
The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll calculations assume there are no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori, and on these numbers, the three parties currently in power would be able to continue to form a government.
Preferred prime minister
Luxon was down 2.0 points to 21.2% while Hipkins was down 2.9 points to 16.9%.
NZ First leader Winston Peters was up 0.2 points to 10.7% while Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was up 2.2 points to 7.0%.
ACT Party leader David Seymour was up 4.0 points to 7.8%.
On what issues those surveyed thought National and Labour were best at - National was leading on the economy, inflation, education, safety, spending, environment and taxes while Labour was leading health, poverty and housing.
‘Fiscal credibility and tax looks to be the key battleground’
Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Tory Relf said: “Labour had fallen to its lowest party vote result in more than two years while National has opened up its biggest lead on keeping taxes low since December 2024.”
"Two months out from the election, fiscal credibility and tax looks to be the key battleground."
In August, both parties came out with fiscal policies - National said there would be no new taxes on the table and committed itself to ‘Budget Responsibility Rules’.
These included prioritising a return to surplus in 2028/29, and staying in surplus over time - reducing debt below 40% of GDP, and maintaining debt below that level over time, keeping taxes low by "right-sizing" government, with core Crown expenditure as a share of the economy declining towards 30% of GDP.
Meanwhile Labour pledged to balance the books and return to surplus, return to the original measure of OBEGAL, achieve surplus by 2029/30 and maintain a sustainable fiscal position over the forecast period. Operating Balance Before Gains and Losses (OBEGAL) is a key fiscal indicator used by the Government. Finance Minister Nicola Willis introduced OBEGALx, which excludes the Accident Compensation Corporation.
Labour also confirmed that if re-elected to government, it would restore the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy dual mandate targeting both inflation and maximum sustainable employment.
And in October, Labour announced it would campaign on a 28% capital gains tax on residential (excluding the family home) and commercial property, which would be used to fund three visits to a general practitioner doctor for each New Zealander each year.
Policy announcements galore
The weekend saw a plethora of election policy announcements.
National promised more access to low equity mortgages for first home buyers and the Greens pledged to break up the supermarket duopoly and create a publicly owned supermarket chain to make groceries more affordable.
ACT released its climate policy, calling for the repeal of the Zero Carbon Act and scrapping New Zealand’s net zero emissions target.
Meanwhile NZ First announced a campaign policy that from 2029, only NZ citizens would be eligible for NZ Superannuation, with the party saying it was about “economic fairness” and “putting New Zealanders first”.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Tuesday 1 September and Thursday 3 September 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 4.1% were undecided on the party vote question.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.