Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows that the Reserve Bank's 'shock and Orr' cut to interest rates last month has done little to improve sentiment in the business community

Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows that the Reserve Bank's 'shock and Orr' cut to interest rates last month has done little to improve sentiment in the business community

Overall business confidence as measured by ANZ's Business Outlook Survey has again fallen further.

Business sentiment is at levels last seen in the Global Financial Crisis. Specifically, the overall business sentiment measure is at its lowest level since April 2008, while various industry-specific measures are at their lowest points since 2009.

Firms’ expectations for their own activity over the year ahead fell to the lowest level since April 2009.

No sector in the economy is predicting that it will hire (on a net basis) more staff. And that hasn't happened since 2009.

"Most ANZ Business Outlook activity indicators fell again in September," ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said. 

"The moves were relatively small in most cases, and are the continuation of a theme." 

Some of the details in the latest survey:

·Employment intentions rose 1 point to a net 8% of firms intending to reduce employment. Investment intentions fell 5 points to -9, revisiting its lows of a year ago. Capacity utilisation fell 1 point and is near decade lows.

·Profit expectations fell 5 points to a net 25% of respondents expecting profitability to decline, the lowest since April 2009.

·A net 40% of firms expect it to be tougher to get credit, up 1.

·Price-side indicators were weak. Pricing intentions fell 2 points to a net 18% of firms expecting to raise prices. Cost pressures fell 2 points to +47. Inflation expectations fell from 1.70% to 1.63% – they have fallen half a percent this year to be well under the 2% CPI target midpoint.

·Commercial construction intentions fell 9 points to -13; residential construction intentions fell 15 points to -19. Both remain negative.

·Export intentions rose 3 points to a net 2% of firms expecting exports to lift. "This is quite muted considering the size of the fall in the exchange rate," Zollner said.

“What is emerging in the survey now is weakness in key inflation indicators. Declining inflation expectations were cited as a reason for the large OCR cut last month. The combination of high cost pressures but limited pricing power is showing up in expected profitability (the lowest since 2009) and weak investment intentions.

“The Reserve Bank will be disappointed that its unexpectedly large 50bp cut in the Official Cash Rate last month does not appear to have had much impact on business’ sentiment or investment and employment intentions.

“The backbone of the New Zealand economy is still in place – commodity prices are still decent; population growth is positive; monetary conditions have eased. But the prolonged lack of confidence is starting to feed its way through the economy and is threatening the tight labour market."

COMMENT BY DAVID HARGREAVES:

The latest fall in business confidence comes after the Reserve Bank's surprise double cut (50 basis points) to the Official Cash Rate last month.

This will undoubtedly bother the RBNZ - as will the fact that inflation expectations have fallen again in the latest survey.

There were some comments in the marketplace after the RBNZ's surprisingly large rate cut as to whether it would be helpful or harmful to business sentiment - as there was some suggestion it could 'spook' businesses, with some feeling around that the RBNZ might have 'known something' about the state of the economy that others did not.

In fact, in a wide-ranging speech on Thursday of last week, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr disputed any suggestion that the central bank 'knew more' than anybody else and said: "Our answer remains – no we don’t. We operate in a transparent manner with primarily public data, but it is our job to be forward-looking."

In that same speech Orr again urged both businesses and the Government to spend and invest. 

The message to this point doesn't seem to be getting through to businesses. On Tuesday the country's other most influential (and arguably THE most influential) business confidence survey, the NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion is due to be released. 

Another similarly downbeat reading by this survey will likely put further pressure on the Government to relax the purse strings and invest and will also further pressure the RBNZ into cutting the Official Cash Rate again - probably in November - to a new low of 0.75%. 

One thing in the latest ANZ survey that points very clearly to the need for the RBNZ to cut again is the falling inflation expectations. Businesses now see an inflation rate a year out of just 1.63% from 1.7% in the previous survey a month ago.

The RBNZ gets bothered when inflation expectations start veering a long way from the 2% level that is the midpoint of its targeted rate of inflation. 

To this end the RBNZ follows very closely the results in its own Business Survey of Expectations, which is done quarterly. The last one came out just before the August 7 OCR decision - and did show a big drop in inflation expectations. It could well be that this was the straw that broke the camel's back in terms of convincing the RBNZ to go for the double cut.

The next RBNZ Business Survey of Expectations is coming out just before the next OCR decision is due, so will be well worth watching. A further slide in inflation expectations in that one would very likely see the RBNZ go for another cut. 

Whether we are all just talking ourselves into a funk is a point that can be debated. 

The point is that the further the business confidence readings fall then so things do become self-fulfilling. And we seem now well past that point.

Whether the RBNZ continuing to cut the OCR will do any good is also worth debating. 

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

93 Comments

Comment Filter

Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).
21
up

so we don't need to import staff then , time to close one of the doors

Was at my local Dominos last night and noticed kiwi accents in the place for the first time...and my order was well received and understood as a result...it appears the door on poor command of english language has closed in that aspect...

14
up

"It's the gubmint I tell ya"

Cue the Hosk and talkback rage.

10
up

Right. A multitude of the reasons driving business sentiments lower could be pinned on developments outside the current government's control: high household indebtedness, beyond-peak economic cycle and global slowdown.
Add to that the wailing from those running their sweatshops on migrant exploitation, cheap imported crap or asset sale to foreigners.

Enough of the global slowdown. I’m currently on leave and just about every country I have visited so far is booming. Nz is performing poorly because we have idiots at the helm.

Anyone who raises the valid point that this government's conduct in the affairs of the country's business community has had a detrimental impact on confidence doesn't necessarily make them a Mike Hosking National fanboy. If you come into office and outright ban Oil/Gas exploration as your first act, that sends a message that it's your way or the high way and for businesses that have to put up with that kind of mouth foaming idealism, it sucks big time unless you're going to make your own clothes out of harakeke.

I think the Hosk would agree with you there. Sounds like a 'common sense' approach.

OTOH, there is no evidence to suggest business confidence would be higher if oil & glas exporation were supported.

No I just use that as an example of how the government sends the message that business' should be prepared for unilateral action based on idealism which of course when you're actually running a business does not inspire confidence.

JediNight,

The argument is,as usual,too polarised. For those on the Right,it is of course all down to a left-leaning,business hating government and for those on the left,it's all down to external factors. Both sides have valid points to make,but what of businesses themselves? For decades,one of NZ's biggest problems has been poor productivity per head. We lag behind most advanced countries and that is primarily the fault of businesses themselves. Too many have failed to invest enough in both more efficient equipment and better trained staff.

23
up

The backbone of the New Zealand economy is still in place... population growth is positive.

One day (maybe!) economists might realise that never ending population growth, absent productive growth, is sounding the Death Knell for any economy that persues that course of action - in essence, most 'developed' countires. There's nothing wrong with immigration if it has a defined productive purpose, but producing it just for 'growth sake as a GDP number' isn't it.
We need a halt to population increase until such time as the economy has adjusted to the population we already have, but Sharon - judging from her comment - and her fellow economists don't see that, and maybe never will.

The narrative needs to change away from ever increasing everything to measuring our reducing impact on the planet. This will necessitate reducing most things - including banks to wipe out debt so that this lowers stress on people.

you do realise to wipe out debt is to wipe out wealth and income simultaneously ...
thats the kicker
lower stress is not a given as living standards must drop significantly - its debt propping them up

I would go further to say that the continuation of open-slather immigration is tantamount to treason unless the immigrants are highly skilled.

The more this continues (and increases), the more I agree with you.

Highly Intellectual people got better option than NZ.

Never fails which ever country you are in , if things go tits up , blame the immigrant .

"The Reserve Bank will be disappointed that its unexpectedly large 50bp cut in the Official Cash Rate last month does not appear to have had much impact on business’ sentiment or investment and employment intentions"

Depends if he realizes that is a ploy

15
up

It's actually a bizarre comment. Does the RBNZ really think business will be cheering and gearing up on debt because the OCR is heading below the water level? Does it even occur to them that business perceives this as a negative leading indicator?

And my question: Does the RBNZ believe that business, h'holds, and individuals behave like Pavlov's dogs?

10
up

Pretty sure they underestimate how well informed and aware the modern Kiwi is

17
up

The main objective of the OCR cut was to drive the NZ dollar down under the disguise of trying to support inflation, so you don't get called out as a currency manipulator, even though everyone is doing it.

Everyone else is doing it by 0.25 so when we do a 0.50 it puts us ahead of the game, so to speak.

J C,

Quite right. The law of diminishing returns kicked in some time ago and the 50 basis point reduction in the OCR did nothing for business confidence.

17
up

The Reserve Bank sending the signal that things aren't looking rosy has not helped businesses feel confident about the future?

Why ever not?

bingo!!!!

Hopefully the others who claim they are rocket scientist, figure that out....

34
up

I have a horrible thought that something very insidious is going on under the surface.

Many of my friends children have stopped looking at houses and accepted they will never be able to own their own house. A friend working in local Hospital told me they are getting 20 children a week referred to mental health services. That the hospital is full and over flowing.

I used to have one friend on anti depressants, (didn't help that his wife ran off with his lawyer). I can now name numerous and they are only the ones who admit it.

Something has really gone wrong in our society and it's getting worse fast. Wages have failed to keep up with costs, council spending and regulation is out of control. Welfare, gangs, crime are all on the rise.

The financialisation of our economy has come at great cost to all but the few, and no political party is prepared to deal with it, just more low skilled immigrants to keep wages low for the most vulnerable in society so corporates can continue to improve returns by investing in enterprises that benefit from cheap labour.

19
up

The financialisation of our economy has come at great cost to all but the few, and no political party is prepared to deal with it, just more low skilled immigrants to keep wages low for the most vulnerable in society so corporates can continue to improve returns by investing in enterprises that benefit from cheap labour.

True indeed.

And we've been blithely assured year after year that selling off our land and productive assets to foreign ownership while importing cheap labour from overseas to staff our cafes, shops and factories...this is the path to prosperity.

It may well be, but for whom? Not for young folk who would want to be able to afford a farm in the country, or a house in the city.

No political party is prepared to deal with it because the political parties reflect modern society. And modern society is still hung up on keeping up with the Jones's rather than keeping an eye out for their neighbours.

Kind of. Political parties work are driven by the interests that vote. News flash...youth get of your iPhone's and a totally vote, otherwise it's all interest groups and property owner...who all vote and for a reason.

Yeah darn right.
All the ol folks I know vote at almost the 100% level and they vote obviously according to their vested interests with very little regard to those coming behind them. The day is a highlight in their calendar.
The young, the poor, unemployed, migrants, ethnics - their voting record is pathetic. No point in worrying about their future with strikes etc if they don't vote.
Now if these groups did vote in the high 90% level we would see some changes, enough to alter this little country forever.

No wonder both the major parties don't want compulsory voting....

It seems to me that the young can be apathetic, but if there's something they believe in then they get stuck in.
I think what will happen is that as more and more of the current twenty somethings get into their 30s, they will start to realise how screwed their generation really are. Not just on climate, but on housing, super etc etc.
Many in their 20s don't care about housing prices, buying a house is not really on the radar for many of them.
Different story once they get in to their 30s (as a generalisation).
There's going to be a flood of boomers's children hitting their 30s in the next 5-10 years, will be interesting times.

"how screwed their generation really are." By your generation Fritz?

No. By the system (and by the 'bad luck of the draw') in general

Agree with you but who do we vote for?

Lets assume we want the housing crisis solved, which means sustainable immigration and more houses. Last election we voted for labour who was pumped up to deliver these things. And they have achieved...... Sadly National is not better.

I guess it's going to need direct pressure on the people in charge. Direct being more than opinions on the internet or letters, or even phone calls.

The best pressure for Labour should be the threat of losing the next election. There will be lots of people like me, more inclined to vote Labour but have voted National before, who might potentially consider the Nats next time.
Labor's saving grace is that the Nats don't have a compelling offering at present, either in terms of policy or personnel.

Fritz the next election will not be won by National it will be lost by the Coalition. They are throwing it away in spades.
As far as National go have another look at their line up, suggest you have missed most of it.

imhenry,

I voted to dump National last time and I am no fan of Bridges,but the increasingly evident lack of ability among labour ministers and the appalling Shane Jones might just force me back into the fold. I am going to listen to Paul Goldsmith tomorrow at an NZ Shareholders Assoc. meeting and I will listen with interest.

Even though I am older I am in the same boat.
I believe "growth" is overrated.
Sustainability will be the buzz word and the Greens now have my full attention. Voting history National for ever until the last election when I realized they were raping NZ for the benefit of a bunch of cronies. Went with Labour in 2017.

The Greens... their co-leader has six tamariki. What part of sustainable does that get filed under???

Population growth followed by GDP

No one ...Voting is a complete waste of time & achieves nothing
Democracy belonged to times of surplus and those times are gone - on one in power can now deliver on their promises
Flag the big picture and focus on local

25
up

No wonder they are stressed (and my health associates report the same) but on goes the property spruiking , immigration, environmental destruction - same policy from one govt to the next.

The younger generation are being raped - economically, financially, environmentally and mentally.

Jacinda and co have been a major let down. Elected by the protest vote (mine included) to reverse the nonsense. That vote is looking for another home. It too has became homeless.

This Govt talk a lot about climate change very little about environmental destruction and policies that will protect and improve the natural environment.

It’s almost like the Govt are turning a blind eye to over fishing and pollution of the air and the water.

Jacinda and co have been a major let down. Elected by the protest vote (mine included) to reverse the nonsense. That vote is looking for another home. It too has became homeless.

To be honest, I'm not surprised that the govt has not been up to the challenge. At the end of the day, Labour is 'National Lite', just with a more caring face. By that, I'm not saying that their intentions are wrong (similarly with National), but you're effectively asking for a wholesale change in vision, attitudes and behavior across the institutional constructs of NZ.

Too many people's reputations and careers are at risk for any meaningful change. Not trying to be demeaning, but Jacinda Ardern is no Joan of Arc. The only event that I could see triggering change would be a massive economic depression.

Labour has already outlawed offshore spice mining. How are we going to fold space now?

Great comment!

"...his wife ran off with his lawyer..." How'd that work out?!
It never ceases to amaze me that he (the lawyer) would think that she, (your friends' ex-wife) wouldn't do the same to him if/when things get tough.
Life wasn't meant to be easy, but if there's one thing we are all supposed to trust implicitly, it's family. Because if we can't - what's the point?

At 3-400 per hour hes probably doing ok.

Trust me, money on its own won't hold on to her. (Ask Jeff Bezos!)

That wasn't Bezos' money, it was theirs.

A smart lawyer would have a relationship property agreement and trust set up to ensure she has to stick around to enjoy the fruits of his labour.

you know, how some of your friends get married and at the wedding you're thinking, "yeah, na this is really not going to work".

I too find it hard to put a finger on, but yes, the 'West' has changed. For adults, I think the most negative effect on our view of society is the high degree of divisiveness. I've never known Western democracies to be so polarised. For kids, I think the most negative effect on their view of society is the high degree of doomsdayism - the 6 o'clock news itself is chock full of sensationally, bad news - and no one is making I Dream of Jeannie and Bewitched-type kid-friendly comedy shows anymore.

Life has become too serious and too hard for too many.

i worry an ugliness is going to rise up and consume us all. Once we have started down this path is there any hope of turning the ship?

I often think of England during the early part of the industrial revolution - child labourers, filthy cities, organised crime... it was the 'face' of capitalism that Karl Marx critiqued. Very dismal for the proletariat/masses. Certainly that ship turned and life did improve massively for the working class. So yes, I do think it can turn again. The world does need another Henry Ford however - and I don't see any 'captains of industry' in the digital revolution being of a similar mind. Bill Gates could have single-handedly saved the Amazon by paying for its ecosystem services, but he didn't.

but England had colonies to export people . Without growth it's hard to see an easy solution.

The world does not need 'growth' of the kind we measure (GDP) - it needs self-sufficiency; and having achieved that, excesses should be redistributed to other countries/regions unable to self-sustain. We need to somehow bring back the egalitarian values we once had.

'I've never known Western democracies to be so polarised'

Is this at last partly a result of growing polarisation of wealth?

Not so sure. Brexit isn't a rich vs poor divide, is it? And plenty of folks I know that voted for Trump are by no means wealthy - quite the opposite, as the swing states he won were the economically deprived, "rust-belt" regions. And the upset in Hong Kong isn't to do with rich vs poor either. But I do think 'governments' generally are seen by the masses to favour multinational corporates. Elizabeth Warren is she gets in in the US is likely the only person cleaver enough to write legislation that would reign them in. Thing is though, she'd need a proper majority in both houses, but once enacted, it would be a very brave government that attempted to reverse those initiatives.

'Brexit isn't a rich vs poor divide, is it? '

Not strictly, but *generally* speaking there were higher levels of support for Brexit among lower income Brits who felt marginalised by high immigration and neo-liberalism, and more support for staying within the wealthier and better educated cohorts.

The lower income groups think immigrants take their jobs when in truth they create their jobs , wealthier people can see the advantages of unity and freedom of movement.

Fritz,

I have just spent 2 months in the UK,mostly in Scotland and I took every opportunity to ask people for their views on Brexit. What struck me forcibly was the clear hardening of views on both sides. From everything I read and heard, a significant percentage of the population are so fed up with the never ending uncertainties,that they are prepared to see a no-deal exit,just to move on. That surprised me.

I lived there for most of my life before retiring to NZ and frankly,I was pleased to leave.It's very sad and I think it's going to get worse.

"the most negative effect on our view of society is the high degree of divisiveness."

Its common sense
When the pie gets smaller, tribes band together to protect their own
You cant change human nature
Everyone was just sucked in to the rhetoric that we were now nice and there is and ALWAYS will be plenty to go round (courtesy of massive fossil fuel burning over the last 80 years)
Now no longer the case

The problem could be that youth don't get enough exercise. Now the youth in Hong Kong have finally found this out and are all now getting a regular healthy dose.

Just been in Vietnam for the past week, and Cambodia prior to that. Despite the fact that neither has a social welfare net, the people are very friendly. They appear to be thankful for employment. I have seen one beggar in 3 weeks. And believe you me these people do it tough. We have major issues in NZ. And I fear the solution is very very complex.

The GFC is over now?

14
up

it was never over, the solutions kicked the can down the road to be dealt with at a later date.
there is more world debt than ever before, growth and inflation have never reappeared in many many countries.
there will be a GFC2 and what is left to fight it with, not much left in the tool box.

We can't fight GFC2 - and we don't need to. What we NEED to do is adapt to the financial plunge that will occur and bring our society along into the future non-capitalist sharing economy. We have everything we need now. Some of us are going to move out of offices and back into growing food....

Non-capitalist sharing economy. Good description.

'non-capitalist sharing economy' - that sounds like socialism!

Elizabeth Warren calls it "accountable capitalism";

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accountable_Capitalism_Act

When you think about it - it's a bit like an agricultural cooperative model applied to all large (i.e., $1 billion +) business entities.

One could look at a cooperative as a sort of non-capitalist sharing type of socialist organisation.

No surprise here. Dropping rates haven't worked in economies around the world.

Liam Dann: Cheer up, we're not sliding into recession
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=12...
Cheer up.

New Zealand's economy is not sliding into recession.

Sure, it is sliding.

According to a consensus of economists, things will probably get worse before they get better.

But not much worse. And not for much longer.

Then they are expected to get better - from about the start of next year by most estimates.

That's the bit that gets missed in the more gloomy headlines.

Economists tend to keep a laser-like focus on the direction of travel. And for the past 18 months that direction has been downwards.
But almost universally they plot New Zealand's GDP growth trajectory as a gentle trough, hitting bottom later this year or early next, then rising again.

And it's always a growth trajectory. Nobody is predicting a recession.

As a yardstick let's use forecasts by ANZ, one of the countries gloomiest research units this year.

That gloomy stance has made it one of the most accurate, the first to call that the Reserve Bank would need to start cutting rates again.

ANZ sees annual growth hitting bottom at 1.9 per cent early next year then rising back above 2 per cent as increased government spending and low interest rates finally start to flow through to consumers.

At no point in the next two years do they see unemployment rising above 4.5 per cent.

That's not to say that an external shock like a financial market crisis - or a natural disaster like drought or earthquake couldn't knock us into recession.

That risk is always there.

But remember, these are the gloomiest forecasts from a pretty broad selection.
As Finance Minister Grant Robertson has been keen to point out, GDP growth at 2.1 per cent - or even 1.9 per cent - still puts us ahead of Australia, Canada, Japan, the UK, Europe or the OECD average.

Among that bunch we're like, I don't know, a rock star?

No! Not going there.

For the record the US is tracking at annual growth of 2.3 per cent. According to ANZ's (admittedly long range) forecasts we'll be back at that level by March 2021.

Others think we'll bounce to 3 per cent by then, although that might require something (like a trade war resolution) to give the global economy a boost.

Still, in the past month we've had reports from the International Monetary Fund, and ratings agencies Moody's and S&P telling us what good shape we're in relatively speaking.

"We expect New Zealand's economic growth to be solid over the medium term," wrote S&P Global in its latest risk assessment of our banks.

"We consider the risks facing New Zealand's financial system have stabilised, reflecting the slowdown of a rapid rate of increase in house prices and private sector debt."

That's a salient reminder that one of the big drivers of New Zealand's rock star growth was an unhealthy artificial stimulant - the wealth effect caused by a property bubble.

So we've got slower, more solid growth. Is everybody happy? Nope.

When it comes to confidence - whether it's the economy or sport, or anything for that matter - direction of travel seems to be a bigger influence on our perceptions than the reality of the here and now.

Humans just aren't great at living in the moment.

We're immediately nostalgic for the past and anxious about the future - that seems to be some kind of evolutionary trait which no amount of mindfulness or zen meditation can undo.

Over the next several months it looks like we'll see stabilisation.

Increased government spending, monetary policy stimulus and a pretty healthy trade balance will battle with global uncertainty and the fallout from low business and consumer confidence.
It might feel like we're stalled for a while. That might not feel great, even if we haven't really stalled in such a bad place.

That neutral place will leave plenty of room for interpretation and we're already seeing a lively battle of economic narratives.

To his credit, National finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith has been wary of talking the economy down for political points.

He's argues it could be doing better if there were more business-friendly policies in place. He might be right.

But that's politics. The people who elected this government didn't vote for an extra point or two of GDP growth, they voted for more focus on social equity and welfare.

Some of them are disappointed that, for all his wellbeing talk, Robertson is still focused on the fiscal bottom line and maintaining GDP growth.

I'm glad he is.

I think he does a pretty good job of balancing the competing demands of economic and social expectation.
But I think he's struggling to win the battle of the economic narrative. Finance ministers only have so much sway.

If this government wants to wrestle back that narrative, its going to need the Prime Minister to swing in behind the story.

Jacinda Ardern has been distracted fighting internal political fires and now, this week, doing what she does well - representing New Zealand on the global stage.

If she still has star power then it is now needed back home to reassert the Government's economic plan, to reassure on its execution and to remind New Zealanders that the outlook is not really so grim.

Vman, that's a very long post for a Monday!

Office a bit quiet is it - hmm, are you bosses planning a restructure soon......?

Pretty sure he's just copy-pasting a Herald article...

Yes it is,I was just going to give just the link,but it never ceases to amaze me how many people wont shell out $2.50 for a read,a paper they were all over when it was free.

It's not worth the paper it's written on.

Back then it was worth what I paid for it.. And it still is.

Can't bring myself to give money to anybody that will be passing some of that onto the Hosk if I can avoid it.

Not sure what your comment has to do with this topic,but as you raised it,no,on RDO's...not everyone is a 9-5 office worker...

Liam Dann: Cheer up, we're not sliding into recession

A very long musing on...."I have no idea but she'll be right"

Great content for the empty target audience of Granny Herald.

Oh, Dann is OK... not nearly as insightful as some of the older writers like Fallow, but OK.
Pretty beige, though. But maybe his assessment is right? The economy is OK. Not good, not bad.

I think he underestimates very real headwinds and risks, mind you.

Also, his piece was released prior to the ANZ survey. Are the ANZ still forecasting unemployment to not rise above 4.5%, even with the latest survey results?

J.C.thanks for your sanctimonious response.Sorry if by reading the Herald it makes me 'empty'...obviously,not everyone can be so learned as yourself...
Perhaps you should get a hold of the Nat party PR chief,AKA Hosking...maybe he doesn't know he is espousing his deep knowledge to an 'empty' audience.
Maybe next time he is around JK's for a barbecue with Soimon,they can discuss whether 1 Interest.co reader is worth twice a Herald reader...what was it that Soimon and his previous best mate Jamie-Lee Ross were chatting about?? 1 Chinese voter being worth 2 Indians or similar..

J.C.thanks for your sanctimonious response.Sorry if by reading the Herald it makes me 'empty'

It depends on the extent to which Granny Herald has segmented its audience. I don't go to the Herald for gravitas on any content or issue. That's just me.

I forgot we should be listening to business leaders only,they have certainly shown us the way ahead...leading lights such as Fonterra, Fletcher Building...all brilliant performers.
Air NZ who had the highest paid CEO in the country last year has had international consultants in to help guide and restructure...funny how the messiah Luxon is bailing out now there is head winds and he doesn't want his reputation tarnished...obviously has no clue so got the consultants in.
He did nothing innovative in his tenure,Rob Fyfe & Ralph Norris were the architects of change there...Luxo inherited it when the hard work had been done and hit the sweet spot,record low fuel prices,no competitors on AKL-LAX route,super fuel efficient 787's arrived on his watch...4 years late after Fyfe made the decision to be the launch customer for the -9 model...Rob took the risks,Luxon enjoyed the tailwinds.

Re Luxon look at the Air NZ lounge fiasco at AKL and ask yourself is this how he Luxon would curtail spending a la JK with the DHBs/ schools/ roads/police/ well just about everything except irrigation dams for his mates and then Labour would have to come in and play catch up.

“We are nearing a point where the capacity of borrowers to keep borrowing has been reached... a long period of deleveraging lies ahead”

A good read on all sorts of related and unrelated topics, but the above quote sums up where we are at the moment IMHO.
https://outline.com/H26nDL

Yes, a good read, thanks for the link.

It has everything to do with overseas happenings. We look after our wellbeing remember. Soon Deutsche Bank falls over, that's when confidence is going to be zero.

ANZ should tell us more about the case of the current problems.

Unsustainable lending growth, aid and abated by their Chair people Jonkey and his mate Hisco. The one that did the dodgy in house the IRD should be investigating how.

I wonder whether they have the same auditors as Fonterra? You see a pattern here people. Big boys using big advisors, who burn most people (including government) off in court. Time for some regulation with teeth, like banning directors for life.

Everyone is sick of these confidential settlements, where the guilty walk away without admitting liability. I'd be happy to part with more taxes, to see justice served and I'm sure most others would too.

JA doesn't have any local mana. She's a global model & like the one before her, will disappear into the UN when she's ready. And for my money, she isn't about to lead the Labour Party to victory in 2020, probably the reverse is more the case. If I were her I'd pull now, citing parenthood, before she burns what little trust she has left even among her own kind, let alone middle NZ. PS: If we could just get National to realise that all immigration does is clog up the arteries.....

immigration is turning into an invasion.

'PS: If we could just get National to realise that all immigration does is clog up the arteries.....'

Good luck with that! The Nats are fundamentally addicted to 'phoney growth' propelled by high immigration and foreign investment.

For the same price as an Auckland house you could buy this: https://www.airway1.com/brazilian-aircraft-carrier-goes-on-sale-for-1-27.... And for the price of a fire sale shoebox apartment you could have a fighter jet: https://www.granturismoevents.com/why-you-really-need-aero-l39-albatros. Don't waste time trying to grow your business just park it in the gulf and invade Auckland. No one could stop you. That'd have to cheer folk up and would look good on the balance sheet.

The problem is that biz nz is having a groundhog day of the same conditions post asian economic crisis and post gfc. They've predominantly ridden the relatively properous times for all it was worth and invested nothing in productivity gains which are important to do because they position the economy to overcome the lean times. So as the headwinds materialise biz nz goes anemic and schlorotic and lacking the postioning to ride out the adversity simply goes into a prolonged tailspin for the next several years. Given our propensity for electing so called 'economic mangers' like the previous National government claimed to be, the tailspin is usually compounded by reduced spending and misguided and economically damaging policies. We deserve better!