Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ is the first main bank to hike rates after +75 bps OCR hike, but they pushed through 'only +65 bps. They also raised all fixed rates. More here. Heartland Bank has raised its floating rate by +50 bps to 5.99%. And they have raised their fixed rates by another +15 bps to +36 bps (remembering they last raise fixed rates less than a week ago). Resimac, CMFL, and Liberty Finance all also raised rates
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ANZ raised all term deposit rates, by between +40 bps and +70 bps taking their six month rate to 4.35% and their 1 year rate to 5.10%. They also raised their Serious Saver bonus saver rate by the full +75 bps.
MORE ACTIVITY, WORSE RESULTS FOR VENDORS
National auction data last week shows auction rooms remain busier but fewer homes sold under the hammer. In fact the sales rate by auction dropped to just 28%.
SPENDING FAR & WIDE ONLINE
Global technology company Wise has today released new data revealing Black Friday and Cyber Monday online spending stretched far beyond New Zealand in 2022, with Kiwis making transactions in 86 countries across the world. Last year it was only 61 countries. The data revealed Kiwis are spending money everywhere from Armenia and Belarus to Nigeria and Zimbabwe. The most popular locations for international transactions were the UK, Australia, US, Netherlands, and Singapore, with Kiwis shopping at the likes of electronics / software stores, record stores, professional service providers, and even limousine companies.
RISING DEBT, LARGER DEFICITS BRING A NEGATIVE OUTLOOK
S&P has turned negative on Wellington City Council debt. They have tagged their AA+ bonds with a 'negative outlook' because the Council's debt is rising and they face large deficits. The downgrade will raise the cost of funding for that Council when it issues new paper.
'CHEAP' IN THE CIRCUMSTANCES
Toyota Finance has raised $100 mln in a 5 year bond rated A+, which pays 5.75% pa. This is a good outcome for them in the current bond raising environment, probably helped by the fact that it is supported by Toyota Japan.
SOFTER
Retail sales in Japan barely rose in October from September to be up +4.3% from a year ago. This was less than analysts were expecting, a softness that is proving hard to shake.
SWAP RATES SLIP
Wholesale swap rates were likely a little lower today on more risk aversion related to China. The real action comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 4.42%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.55% and unchanged. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.89% and up +3 bps and its highest in a year. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.09%, down -1 bp and above the earlier RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which is down -9 bps at 4.05%. The UST 10 year is now at 3.69% and up +3 bps from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES MIXED
Wall Street ended its Monday session down -1.5% falling away increasingly as the session wore on. Tokyo has opened -0.6% lower today. Hong Kong has opened +3.5% higher reversing earlier retreats. Shanghai is +1.8% higher at its open. The ASX200 is up +0.1% in afternoon trade. But the NZX50 is bucking the trend, up +1.0% in late trade and led by a huge +12.5% bounce back by F&P Healthcare (FPH, #1) after their results release. Genesis Energy (GNE, #20) also helped. But weighing were most other energy companies.
GOLD SOFT
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1742/oz and down another -US$7 from this time yesterday.
NZD MARGINALLY SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar is -½c softer from this time yesterday at 61.7 USc. Against the AUD we are unchanged at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped to 59.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now at 71.1 and down -20 bps.
BITCOIN SLIPS
Bitcoin is now at US$16,175 and down -1.3% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 1.5%.
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65 Comments
So the 1 year rate for >20% equity (most existing customers) looks like it will close the year out at 6.54% at the largest lender ANZ. Right on the 6.5% prediction by many. Interesting that TSB is still offering 1 yr mortgage at 5.79% on this site, they must be very close to being a registered charity not bank..........
Wholesale swap rates were likely a little lower today on more risk aversion related to China.
Three month NZ TBills recorded an average accepted yield of 4.3457%, at today's tender, whilst the 10 yr languished at 4.09%.
Protesting in China is fairly common. What happened this past weekend was not, though it should not have been a surprise. What might be, to some, is why the lockdowns continue. There's so much more to the China story - and our problems.
Xi's inhumane lockdowns and the unrest they've provoked point to much deeper troubles.
China's insistence on ZERO-COVID has little or nothing to do with the coronavirus one way or another. Instead, Xi's stubborn insistence on it can be explained by the experiences of Leon Trotsky and Mikhail Gorbachev. China's road to the socialist transformation hit a major eurodollar snag and threatens to do more than cause even emotional protesting.
Experiences of Trotsky & Gorbachev. A long drawdown in time indeed between those two. Both rather dead right now although the latter did not require an ice pick to hasten that status. Undoubtedly Chairman Mao early on followed the road map that the Bolsheviks had drawn up, there wasn’t much of an alternative. I cannot remember all of what Rewi Alley spoke about when I met him in the early sixties, when I was let’s say a youth, but it was indicative that China, regardless of what system of government it had in place, would ultimately reach a time of independence and international growth. Interestingly enough, General MacMaster in the brief time of his role with Trump recorded that he was damn sure China had already reached that point some time ago, except he used expansion instead of growth. China has replaced Russia as the other let’s say super power, and Russia’s drastic weakening of itself economically, militarily and societally by its failed invasion of Ukraine, has gifted Russia right into the CCP’s power play. Just speculating.
If you watch the rather long TraumaZone https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2022/oct/13/russia-1985-1999-t… (Guardian gave it 5 stars) it documents the downfall of the Soviet Union, this may well come to China. Xi and his cronies have studied it for sure.
China now has way too much debt, and little to show for it. It is short of energy and food production. I think Russia has more to fear from China than the rest of the world.
Russia has a military arsenal and natural resources second to none, coupled with an educated population.
https://www.euronews.com/video/2022/11/02/despite-tensions-russia-is-sh…
Much easier and profitable for China, if it really does have expansion on its mind, to move north or west or both, rather than south. For a start its army for obvious reasons is geared for manoeuvres in that sort of territory. The expressions of interest in “reintroducing” traditional Chinese “culture” to the Mongolian lifestyle has lately been of increasing tempo. Of course Mongolia seceded from China only just over 100 years ago, when China was weak. Stalin then filled the void rather nicely. Should China want it back, and take it back that then would humiliate Russia somewhat and thumb a nose at the West who given the geography, would be powerless to intervene. That gambit might well therefore be a rest case for the CCP to gauge the impact on, and resultant reaction or non reaction of, the West and at the same time provide much home publicity to douse some of the troublemaking? Just speculating again.
Mongolia? I met with the head of the central bank in respect of a gold trading deal in the late eighties. I am sure Russia and China have bigger fish in mind. The latest proposed gas pipeline from Russia to China will traverse this territory. Mongolia will welcome the transit fees from both sides.
In the end Chemical Bank bought JP Morgan together with its London bullion trading franchise.
Has explained that often enough. Explained being something of a euphemism for the sake of modesty. Made a personal fortune out of the former, sufficient to retire on reaching the forties and that gave rise to a great deal of contempt for both the personalities and circumstances that facilitated such. success.
Well then why didn’t you set yourself up and do all what you did on your own for yourself and keep all the profit for yourself rather than be an employee for a supposed crap employer that had the temerity to consider that the shareholders who owned the operation were more important than the employees?
Yes that’s obvious isn’t it so let’s spell it out another way. Why would either the owners or the purchasers, or both, of the gas pay another nation for right of transit through that nation when they could own that nation and to boot, forced labour would be cost effective for the maintenance as well.
Fidelity, one of the world’s largest financial services providers, has officially started opening retail bitcoin trading accounts. Invitation only for now.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/fidelity-opens-retail-bitcoin-trad…
Wouldn't it be great to have a timeline of wrong predictions! I wonder how wrong Tony Alexander's last interest rate peak prediction will be.
Although I must admit I never saw this coming, who would have predicted an almost 7% 2yr rate last year! Surely they have well and truly overcooked it.
Yea I imagine "factored in" means they have a forecast of rate increases that have the current OCR trajectory factored in. I very much doubt that todays rates could hold steady if the OCR does reach 5.5% in 2023, but rather that they have factored in the necessary steps to follow that path.
I am certain that if this is the case, then the likes of TA should know this and stop spouting on about interest rate peaks.
ANZ are a disgrace - pricing in next year's anticipated OCR rises, which won't happen at anywhere near the level RBNZ are trying to convince us they will, is cynical profiteering. It's an abuse of their market power. The banks are now taking 2% of GDP in profits and distributing it to their wealthy shareholders - skimming money off the middle classes to be handed to the very wealthy.
I have looked at this in some detail - kiwisaver accounts contain very small amounts of Aussie bank shares. In fact they contain far more Govt bonds! And, in any case, the wealthiest 20% of NZers have average (median) of $1.1m of shares, equity etc, whilst the poorest 20% of NZers have just $9,000! When shares pay dividends or appreciate in value, those with the most wealth get wealthier. That's just the hard reality of the situation.
Housemouse, they hadnt factored in the OCR "rising to 5.5% and staying there for a year". Also chinese trade disruptions back on the table today = inflation. And they are still spending like drunken sailors in the US, rises to continue there. Still no sign of a let up. Kiwi wage claims still high, teachers rejected their offer this week, not listening to the governor..........
Thanks to better performing councils in Hutt, Porirua and further afield that have picked up the slack and provided housing to people working in the capital.
It is faster to train into CBD from those parts of the region than drive or ride a bus from outer suburbs of Wellington city.
Labour Soft on Crime =
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/130608449/youth-who-attacked-78y…
what part of be kind to gangs do they not understand
Treat the Mongrel Mob like the Mongrels they are. Lets see what the sentance is, then what the discount is for a troubled youth etc..... This is killing labour. They don't understand its not about there core 28% voters its the swing voters that are leaving them.
Worst Prime Minister Ever.
Some Colour on the ONE that sold
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/property/residential/manukau-city/pakuranga/h…
Sale price $1,263,000 Current CV $1,650,000 (last sold $767,500 in 2013).
Thats 23.45% under CV, still only offering a mid 4s low 5s yield.
One roof estimates Low$1,485,000 OneRoof estimate $1,650,000 High$1,815,000 so we can start ignoring these..........
Agent Cindy Wu got her sale, I wonder if the seller was a foreign vendor getting out with a $470k profit.
I looked at the other stuff on offer today, there was a lot of rental/bowl over dev sites in that lot, I am not surprised.
The Westmere one was a decent house but they prob want 3-4 mil for it.
TTP is going to struggle to spin this, he seems to have left the bridge. The DGMs have the conn.
tothepoint - deactivated
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LABOUR SOFT ON CRIME A charge of participating in an organised criminal group was withdrawn by Crown prosecutor Nandini Turner.
He adopted a sentencing start point of sixteen-and-a-half months’ imprisonment, but then allowed a 20 per cent discount for Peeti’s personal circumstances and a further five per cent for remorse.
Peeti was also given credit for the 45 days he spent in custody and the lengthy time on electronically monitored bail, which reduced the sentence to two months’ imprisonment.
Judge Carter then converted the sentence to two months’ community detention and six months’ supervision.
Gangster used standover tactics to demand cash and motorcycle after car crash
By
Open Justice multimedia journalist, Whanganui
29 Nov, 2022 07:24 PM3 mins to read
Rebels MC member Dallas James Peeti demanded money from two men and a dirt bike following a car crash, the Whanganui District Court has heard.
A patched Rebels MC gang member told two men they each owed the club $1000 and ordered one of them to surrender his dirt bike following a car crash with other members of the club.
In September 2021, a few days after the crash, Dallas Peeti, along with three other members or prospects from the gang, went to the victim’s home in Marton, the Crown summary of facts says.
Peeti demanded the men pay the cash within a month, and told one of them his dirt bike now belonged to the gang.
Later that night, three gang members returned to the address, telling the victim they had come for the motorcycle, which he allowed them to take.
In November, 2020, Peeti was one of a group of five Rebels gang members, some armed with metal bars, who went to an address in Marton to take back a Holden Commodore.
Two of the group confronted the victim - who was with her two-week-old baby - in her Land Rover and used the weapons to smash panels on the vehicle, causing $1000 in damage, before she reversed down the driveway and fled the scene.
On Monday, Peeti appeared before Judge Ian Carter in the Whanganui District Court charged with demanding with menaces and intentional damage.
Peeti pleaded guilty to the offending after being given a sentencing indication in September.
A charge of participating in an organised criminal group was withdrawn by Crown prosecutor Nandini Turner.
Judge Carter said there had been an escalation in tensions between the Rangitīkei chapter of the Rebels and the family of the men involved in the car crash in the months leading up to Peeti’s standover tactics.
He said Peeti’s gang connections were a significant aggravating factor in both crimes because of the intimidation element of the charge.
“[He] did not want to pay but allegedly felt he had no choice due to an earlier incident involving a gun when he was dealing with gang members.
“You told the complainants that they owed the Rebels a dirt bike and $1,000 because of the previous collision, and the demand was backed up by the fact that there were three other gang members or prospects who picked up the dirt bike later in the evening.
Judge Carter said he couldn’t take into account the effect the standover tactics had on the men because they had not made victim impact statements, but did note it was part of an increase in tension that led to more serious alleged offending.
He adopted a sentencing start point of sixteen-and-a-half months’ imprisonment, but then allowed a 20 per cent discount for Peeti’s personal circumstances and a further five per cent for remorse.
Peeti was also given credit for the 45 days he spent in custody and the lengthy time on electronically monitored bail, which reduced the sentence to two months’ imprisonment.
Judge Carter then converted the sentence to two months’ community detention and six months’ supervision.
Peeti was also ordered to pay $200 reparation to the victim of the intentional damage.
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