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The Opening Bell: Where currencies start for Monday, April 15, 2013

Currencies
The Opening Bell: Where currencies start for Monday, April 15, 2013

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens lower at 0.8565 this morning.

US retail sales fell 0.4% in March, which is the 2nd fall in the past 3 months. This is casting some doubt over the strength of the US economic recovery, and is helping to reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue its stimulus and bond-buying program.

Global equity and commodity markets suffered losses across the board.

NZDUSD traded as low as 0.8547 on the back of the weak US data. NZDJPY fell 2.5% from Friday’s high, while the NZ TWI has fallen 1.1% from Thursday’s all-time peak.

The Gold price plunged 5% on Friday to trade to a USD$1477 low. Gold prices have dropped by over 20% from their 2011 highs and is now technically in a bear market.

Fears that Slovenia, Hungary, Portugal, Spain, and Italy may follow Cyprus’s lead and announce sales of their bullion reserves has pressured the gold price.

The NZD opens at 0.8565 USD, 0.8150 AUD, 0.6530 EUR, 0.5585 GBP, & 84.20 JPY.

There is no NZ data on the calendar today. NZ inflation data will hit the tapes on Wednesday, which is the only piece of significant data scheduled this week.

A plethora of Chinese data will rule the roost today with retail sales, industrial production, GDP, and fixed asset investment on the schedule this afternoon.

Also see; Where's the gold price headed? Our interview with NZ Mint CEO Simon Harding here.

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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3 Comments

Gold has been having a good correction, but eventually gold will rebound as it is oversold.  With money printing and eventually people seeing inflation prices will rebound much higher.  Gold will also trek higher with the oil price.

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We will soon know, won't we?  But I hope your are correct. My suspicion is there is a large number of punters with their finger on the sell button, watching the market closely today. Especially those who recently bought into the market.

Not everybody is as happy as Marc with the breakdown in gold last Friday. But I suspect he is correct on the longish term trend for gold.

HGW

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Why bother with equities and commodities when the BOJO and the FED are confirmed buyers of USD 80 billion and USD 85 billion of bonds a month respectively in their own markets?

 

Since when has fighting the FED or the BOJO for that matter been profitable?

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