A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; workers rush in, wealth shrinks, PPI rise tame except on farms, no debt stress, election and NZX50 updates, swaps up, NZD down, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Nothing again today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Update: The Co-operative Bank pushed through some minor increases to rates today.

THE FLOOD CONTINUES
More than 14,000 overseas workers and 12,000 overseas students arrived in the country during July. That took the total over the past year to more than +100,000 overseas workers who arrived in just the six months to July.

WEALTH SHRINKING
Kiwis' wealth per adult suffered an annual retreat, according to the Credit Suisse-UBS Global Wealth Report.

NOT TAKING IT ANYMORE
Producer price costs have got suddenly tamer in the June quarter from a year ago. There were up only +1.1% in June, far lower than the +4.5% rise in the March quarter and the +9.8% rise in the year to June 2022. From March they actually fell slightly. Clearly business can not longer afford to absorb high cost increases and are avoiding them now, or going without.

TOUGHER ON THE FARM
Farm expenses are rising faster than overall producer costs (+1.1%), and overall CPI inflation (+6.0%). They were up +7.9% in June from a year ago, with chunky rises for lime fertiliser (+9.2%), insurance premiums, (+8.3%) and interest costs (+43.8%). But they also benefited from a -24% fall in fuel costs over the same year.

65c OF SPENDING CUT BACK
DairyNZ has revised its national breakeven level to $7.51 per kg/MS for this season, down from $8.16/kg MS to reflect changes farmers are making now in light of the tough dairy market..

REAL COMPANY DEBT STRESS, YES. FOR INDIVIDUALS, NO
Credit reporting agencies are a source of stories and data about how debt stress is building. But that stress isn't being reflected in official data for bankruptcies nor No Asset Procedures (NAPs). In fact in July NAPs (bankruptcy lite) fell to their lowest level ever, since this option because available in late 2007. Only 24 people in the whole country went into a NAP in July. Only 46 went into bankruptcy, and while that wasn't a record low it was close (20 in January 2023). People are still coping. But there is evidence in ITS-administered company bankruptcies that pressure is rising - there were 33 in July, the highest monthly total since June 2014.

NZX50 PROFILE UPDATES
Regular users of our NZX50 profiles will want to know we have updated the financial profiles of these companies to reflect the March 2023 annual financial updates. They are for #26 ARG - Argosy, #28 ARV - Arvida, #6 CEN - Contact Energy, #9 FBU - Fletcher Building, #1 FPH - F&P Healthcare, #14 GMT - Goodman Property Trust, #4 IFT - Infratil, #8 MFT - Mainfreight, and #13 RYM - Ryman Healthcare. For investors who want to understand the New Zealand companies that make up the NZX50, and their key financials, these resource pages are an excellent place to start. Reading financial statements is one thing (and there is a lot of spin and dross to push through), so our summaries go to the heart of they key financial metrics, and show how they have changed over the past five or six years. If you want to be a knowledgeable investor, these are a good place to start. Updates are made when each company releases its annual results.

MORE POLICIES TO COMPARE
More Election 2023 policies are coming through. They include, Act - Education, Labour - Parental Leave, TOP - Women's Issues, TOP - Health, and NZ First - Senior Citizens. You can find all policies, compared between parties, here.

AUSSIE JOBLESS RATE LIFTS
In Australia, they released their July labour market data. Their jobless rate rose to 3.7% in July from 3.5% in June, above market expectations of 3.6%, and the highest level since April. There are now 541,000 unemployed in Australia, and increase of +35,600 in one month. Employment unexpectedly fell by -14,600 when analysts expected a +15,000 rise. Full-time employment fell by -24,200 while part-time employment rose by +9,600. Their participation rate fell to 66.7%.

MANY MORE LISTINGS THAN NEW BUYERS
In Australia, there is a listing surge underway in their housing markets, rising at a rate far higher than the market can absorb without selling price discounting.

SWAPS HIGHER
Wholesale swap rates were probably up sharply today on global moves higher but the real reaction will come after the press conference until the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged yet again at 5.64% and now +14 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps from this time yesterday at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.59% and a three year low. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate has surged up +12 bps to 5.12% and its highest since 2011, and still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which was up +4 bps bps at 4.98%. The UST 10 year yield is at 4.29% and up a sharp +9 bps from yesterday and its highest since October 2022. Rising long rates are a global trend (except in China).

EQUITIES LOWER AGAIN
The NZX50 is down -1.2% today in late trade on a global risk-off vibe. The ASX200 is down -0.8% in afternoon trade, hurt by the China weakness. Tokyo has opened its Thursday session down -0.9% in morning trade. Hong Kong has opened down another -0.2% and Shanghai is unchanged. The S&P500 ended its Wednesday session down -0.8%.

GOLD FALLS
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1892/oz and down a further -US$9 from yesterday. Earlier in New York it closed at US$1891, and earlier still in London it closed at US$1904/oz.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is lower today, down -40 bps from this time yesterday at just over 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we holding with a firmish tinge at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we down -¼c at 54.4 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 68.4 and llower.

BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is lower today, now at US$28,593 and down -2.1%. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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