A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; a surprise floating rate cut, limp retail, low migration, softer tourism, dairy prices stay up, big SI projects planned, swaps flat, NZD recovers, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank cut its floating rate by -25 bps to 5.95% today. More here. This is the lowest of any bank and the lowest since July 2022. More here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are none to report today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SPENDING LEVELS LIMP
Electronic cards retail activity data for April shows that hospitality, durables and consumables spending rose in the month, but the apparel industry is still doing it tough. Overall it was retail spending that was officially flat, but had some signs of life. Retail NZ’s latest quarterly Retail Radar survey, covering January-March 2025, found that 57% of retailers did not meet sales targets for the quarter and had mixed expectations for quarter two sales.

MUCH LESS MIGRATION
Data out today reveals that March-year net migration gain tumbled a massive -74%. That means population growth from migration declined by almost three quarters in year to March as fewer migrants arrived and more people left NZ long-term.

TOURISM STUTTERS
Tourism arrivals were weaker in March in a broad-based slowdown. In total, 311,808 tourists arrived in the month amounting to 82% of March 2019 (pre-pandemic levels), falling from 85% in February to the lowest level since May 2024. The decrease in visitor arrivals compared to a year ago was likely related to the timing of Easter as Good Friday fell on 18 April this year and 29 March in 2024. Meanwhile the number of Kiwis travelling overseas rose and for the full year to March cracked 3 mln again, levels we have only had in the 2019 and 2020 March years.

STAYING UP
The overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered similar but slightly lower results for both SMP and WMP that were achieved at last week's full auction, basically confirming the recent shifts, especially the up-shift for WMP.

SEEMS LIKE A LOT
The National Cyber Security Centre’s (NCSC) annual survey for 2024, conducted by The Research Agency (TRA) claims the financial loss suffered by New Zealanders due to online security threats is around $1.6 billion. The research found 54% of adult New Zealanders had experienced an online threat in the last six months and 830,000 had experienced some financial loss, with the average amount lost per attack being $1,260. These levels are far higher than the ones directly reported to the NCSC. And apathy in reporting scams is growing, they say.

BANK CUSTOMER SATISFACTION SURVEY UPDATE
The Co-operative Bank topped the 2025 Consumer NZ bank customer satisfaction survey, again. ANZ slipped to the bottom of those rankings, replacing Westpac.

NZX LITTLE-CHANGED
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is unchanged so far today. That means it is up +2.4% for the past week, down -2.1% since the start of the year, and up +10.1% from this time last year. Tourism Holdings, Meridian, Turners, and EBOS top the gains, with Kathmandu, Oceania, Hallenstein, and Auckland Airport the main decliners.

NEW LARGE INLAND PORT PLANNED IN OTAGO
Privately-owned Calder Stewart, NZ’s largest industrial landowner, has announced plans for a $3 bin, privately funded industrial precinct in Otago that will also create the country’s largest inland port. The Milburn Quadrant development, located north of Milton, will span over 200 hectares, including a 55 hectare inland port, and connect directly to State Highway 1 and the South Island’s main trunk rail line. The site is already zoned for heavy industrial use and will require no public infrastructure investment.

ANOTHER LARGE SI DEVELOPMENT PLANNED
And just as the Americans move to block their film studios using 'foreign' production facilities, listed Winton Land is trumpeting the fast-track approval process of their new Queenstown $200 mln Ayrburn Film Hub.

GOING BACKWARDS
The Financial Services Council's latest Financial Resilience Report says financial confidence has decreased, job security has dropped, investment money has reduced, fewer people feel prepared for retirement, financial literacy has declined (even if only slightly), but the effect of finances on overall wellbeing has stabilised.

BIG BANK BEHAVING BADLY, AGAIN
In Australia, regulator ASIC is tackling Macquarie again. ASIC is suing Macquarie Securities alleging it engaged in misleading conduct by misreporting millions of short sales to the market operator for over 14 years. They allege that between 11 December 2009 and 14 February 2024, Macquarie failed to correctly report the volume of short sales by at least 73 million. ASIC estimates that this could be between 298 million and 1.5 billion short sales. The last ASIC action against Macquarie was just a week ago over compliance failures. Today's action is the fifth by ASIC against Macquarie since April 2024. You do have to wonder what it would take for APRA to open a review of their banking license.

FADING I
In Australia, home loan growth is fading, mainly due to weak demand from first home buyers. The value of new owner-occupier loan commitments for dwellings fell by -2.5% to AU$53.2 bn in Q1-2025 from Q4. That is starkly different from the revised +3.7% growth in Q4. Demand by investors was weak too.

FADING II
House prices double every ten years, right? Well not anymore. And not in Australia. Over the past ten years they only rose +60% in Sydney, only +40% in Melbourne. It was +90% in Brisbane and Adelaide but only +55% in Perth. In Auckland it is only +42%. In Wellington is has been +90%. In Christchurch +67%. Doubling happens at +7% per year. It's no longer anything like that.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates may be little-changed at the short end but with a steepening curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged again at 3.37% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.53%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding higher at 1.68%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps at 4.71% and was up +3 bps to 4.65% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.47%, up +1 bp.

EQUITIES RELIEF RALLY RUNS OUT OF STEAM
The NZX50 is up just +0.1% today, and the ASX200 is down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.8 in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong has recovered +1.3% having overdone it yesterday while Shanghai is up only +0.1%. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. Wall Street rose more modestly today, with the S&P500 up +0.7% in Tuesday trade.

OIL FIRMER AGAIN
The oil price is up +US$1.50 just over US$63/bbl in the US, and just over US$66/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED
The carbon price is little-changed at NZ$52.90/NZU, up 70c and still on modest volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD ON HOLD
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed, up just +US$2/oz from this time yesterday at US$3230/oz.

NZD RECOVERS STRONGLY
The Kiwi dollar is back up +80 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 53.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.9 and up +40 bps.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is at US103,530 which is up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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