Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
UnityMoney applied its -25 bps floating rate cut from the previous OCR shift, today. And so has Kāinga Ora, reducing their floating rate by -15 bps. Kāinga Ora also cut all its fixed rates. All rates are here. And remember, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to note today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
FIVE MONTHS OF COOLER PRICES
Cotality says caution dominates the housing market, and it's 'unlikely people will be rushing out to bid up house prices aggressively over the rest of 2025'. Median prices have now fallen for five straight months, they say.
STAYING SHORT, JUST NOT AS SHORT
Latest monthly RBNZ figures show that the preference for one-year fixed mortgages was consolidated in July, while the brief fling with floating rates is dying off.
SNAKE BIT
Fletcher's contract to build the Auckland International Convention Center is a poisoned chalice. First the fire, now asbestos issues. Fletcher Building and SkyCity say they are 'working closely together to understand any impacts' from the supply of fire doors for the convention center that could potentially be contaminated by asbestos.
CONSTRUCTION DRAGS
Data revealing the value of building work in Q2-2025 in readiness to be incorporated in our Q2-2025 GDP result on Thursday September 18, showed that it was $7.8 bln in the quarter, down -8.5% from the June 2024 quarter. Within this, residential building work was down -9.1$ to $4.8 bln, and non-residential work was down -7.5% on the same basis. By region, Auckland was down -10%, Waikato was down -13%, Wellington down almost -10% and Canterbury was down -3.6%. Also see this.
SIGNS OF POSITIVITY, EVEN IF OFF A LOW BASE
ANZ's review of its customer card usage shows overall card spending was up +0.4% in August on a s.a. basis. Spending is up +3.0% compared to the same time last year. Apart from the impact of lower petrol prices, more positive trends are emerging in card spending, they say. Even the apparel sector finally has its nose above water.
NEW LENDING SURGES, AND LIVESTOCK FARMERS ARE PARTICULARLY KEEN
The RBNZ's July data on 'new lending by purpose' (C70) shows it surging to +$17.7 bln, the largest month increase since this series began in April 2021. Of course, the most was into residential property, but $5.0 bln went into non-property new business lending in July. Maybe that was juiced by one or two big deals? because it is an unusual jump. New lending to non-dairy livestock farming was also a new record high at +$428 mln in July. May and June are the usual seasonal peaks for this, and they certainly peaked this year. But for July to extend that and claim a 'record' is unusual. But maybe the next two items explain some of that.
FARMERS WIN ON BEEF PRICES
Rabobank's senior ad analyst Emma Higgins reports that high beef prices continue to hold. Record saleyard prices, as well as high export prices, highlight robust market conditions heading into the 2025/26 season. Also see this. Indications are that prices will rise again next week.
FARMERS WIN ON SHEEP PRICES
The same review shows that lamb prices hit all-time record highs in August, driven by tight supply and strong global demand. Export values surged in August despite local volumes with EU markets continuing to drive this trend. These levels may also be higher next week.
NZX50 TURNS FIRMER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% in a positive Thursday session. And it is up +1.7% over the past working five days. It also up +0.4% year-to-date. And it is now up +4.5% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged again today so far. Channel Infrastructure, Freightways, Serko rise; Vista, Hallensteins, EBOS, and Gentrack fall.
CLOSED OVERSUBSCRIBED
As we had previously noted, Meridian was seeking $250 mln for a 6.5 year unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed rate 'green bond'. They were open to oversubscriptions and have taken $350 mln in this offer. The yield they are paying is 4.55% pa, a margin of 100 bps to swap, at the lower end of the indicated range.
STILL HOT DEMAND FOR SAFETY
A total of $1.6 bln was bid for the two NZGB tenders today where $450 mln was offered. There were 105 bids but only 31 of them won anything. Yields were little different to the prior equivalent event just a week ago. Next week's public tender will likely be cancelled in favour of another large placed syndication.
HIGHER RISK PERCEPTION TIGHTENS MARGIN
And there was a small ($25 mln) inflation indexed bond issued which attracted $97 mln in bids. The yield achieved was 1.80% (plus inflation), which is the lowest level since May 2023, thirty six events ago. That margin had risen to +3.24% in between.
MORE SPENDING ON SERVICES
In Australia, household spending is strong and rising. It was up +5.1% in July from the same month a year ago, up +0.5% in July from June which is an even faster rate. That's the third month in a row it has risen and it has risen in nine of the past ten months. In July, this spending was concentrated on services, especially health services, hotel accommodation, air travel, and dining out. But they actually cut back on spending on goods.
VIRTUOUS RESULT UP ALMOST +AU$2 BLN
Meanwhile, the Australian trade balance turned up after a series of declines. Markets expected a +AU$5 bln surplus in July after a +AU$5.4 bln surplus they got in June. But in fact the surplus came in as +AU$7.4 bln in July, helped by a +3.3% monthly rise in exports and a -1.3% monthly fall in imports. That means it hit a 21 month high.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today at the short end but notable lower for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate up +1 bp at 3.01% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.38%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 1.74%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.45%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was up +6 bps at 4.48% at the end of Wednesday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -6 bps from yesterday, now at 4.22%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is firmer in Thursday trade, up +0.4%. The ASX200 however is up +0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +1.2%. Hong Kong down -1.1% with Shanghai down a sharper -1.6%. Singapore has opened up +0.2%. Wall Street ended their Wednesday trade with the S&P500 up +0.5% although much of this was just glow from a few big tech stocks, and much of that glow was 'relief' that Google isn't going to be required to divest anything.
OIL SOFT
The oil price in the US is now just under US$63.50/bbl and down -US$2 and the international Brent price is just under US$67.50/bbl. Demand prospects are weighing on it.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There are more trades again today but the price holding at $57. The next official carbon auction is next week on September 10, 2025 and heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD TAKES A BREATHER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$10 from yesterday at US$3526/oz and just off its record high.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at just over 66.3 and up +20 bps.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,470 and little-changed from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/- 0.9%.
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20 Comments
Surely fletchers won't be impacted by the fire doors, wouldn't the supplier have to replace them. Unless the supplier goes under.
They may have to refit them..... isn't every door in a hotel fire resistant?
Don't see it as a fire issue but an asbestos issue. Wouldn't be surprised if it's a Fletcher owned subsidiary that supplied them.
The outfit has got so many tentacles reaching and gripping so much into the trade, it would be small wonder that one might strangle another.
Fletchers sold Pacific Doors to Assa Abloy a few years back.
This is your typical over dramatic freak out over a bit of asbestos.
Thanks. Contract for old mates?
Australia’s most recent census data, analyzed by CEDA, shows that a significant share of ‘skilled’ migrants are underemployed and underpaid compared to their qualifications and experience.
CEDA’s research finds that 23% of permanent skilled migrants in Australia are working in jobs beneath their skill level within 18 months of arrival. In some fields, such as engineering, only 50% of overseas-born qualified engineers actually work in engineering roles. In addition, research from 2024 and external organizations puts the figure even higher, around 44%, when including all permanent migrants.
No doubt similar in Aotearoa.
https://theconversation.com/underuse-of-migrants-skills-is-costing-us-b…
Get the skilled migrant visa, then never get the opportunity to use their quals and wind up uber driving. Seems the western way sadly
Kathmandu closing a few stores... every day another retailer downsizes, restructures or fails, unemployment and sentiment can clearly fall further from here, there will be a 5% round of cuts coming to most of the NZ Banks (many have already quietly started, plus a move away from mortgage brokers).
I think NZ is close to a series of credit downgrades. At least the stable outlook removed, as the recovery has not arrived as planned. Treasury numbers are still erring on the high side, the books will look worse as well once IRD actually starts liquidating and formally writing off the billions companies owe them.
Budget 2026 will show bigger holes then 2025 did for sure, compounded by lower tax revenues.
Beautiful couple of spring days in Auckland but its still bloody gloomy. As a trader I used to know would say, its all arse.
You may have missed this
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/135037/new-zealand-may-find-it…
Damn i read it, was on a few painkillers back when that was published after a knee surgery.... a bit fuzzy, day goes quickly.
Thats a soft way of saying you need to balance the books.
Treasure suggest we move away from a 2% structural def towards a sustained surplus, While Luxy wants to do this by growth, its feeling more it will need further cuts, which will only reduce sentiment further.
BREAKING NEWS , looking like 140 jobs to go Sawmill in Tasman
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/572008/tasman-nelson-mayors-lobby-t…
Another 140 jobs in a rural region, offers of 6m 150x50 H4 retaining timber is selling 25% off all over the place vs a year ago.
That's not breaking, it was out days back and Nelsonites knew it was coming after the announcement. Sad as the job market is dire in Nelson for anything that pays semi-well. Expect to work 2-3x harder for a 90k job in Nelson vs Wellington.
China has devalued CNY by ~50% in the past 2 years vs gold. If CNY is "too weak" relative to USD, that means USD is "too strong" relative to gold.
More gold appreciation in USD will be necessary to stop Chinese mercantilism.
Do not be shocked if the oft talked about theory of a gold-backed BRICS currency becomes a reality this Fall. My bet is on the BRICS contingent keeping it simple and coalescing around a gold-back yuan instead of the basket of goods that was being discussed years ago.
How will the US respond? An event like this would likely crater the market for US Treasuries, and the global financial system by extension.
With the withdrawal of the U.S. from the 'accepted' world order the lesser economies are unsure nwhich way to turn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9Vc94RVF_U
The U.K is in meltdown....and we take a lot of our cues from that direction.
Winnie plays smart, we have not offended our biggest trading partner which has a FTA with us. Sending Helon and John sends a clear message, we value our long historical trading partnership. Not sending Luxy or anyone in current power sends a message to the US, we value our partnership as well.
Its a fine line but we navigate it well IMHO
What partnership?
iiiii et al
"state capitalism with US characteristics" anyone?
(with apologies to Pesek)
Not even given Trump's (and his enablers) proclivities.
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