Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
DURABLES SPENDING RISES
The country's biggest bank, ANZ, reports that the very cyclical 'durables' spending is showing the largest overall annual rate of growth, even though overall card spending stays pretty flat.
MODEST PICKUP QUICKENS
ANZ also says its Truckometer monitoring shows the Light Traffic Index rose +0.2% in October but is +3.2% higher than a year ago, with annual growth increasing rapidly. A year ago, that same year-on-year metric declined.
RISING SUPPLY DOES ITS JOB, REBALANCING THE LEDGER
The latest MBIE rental figures are good news for tenants but landlords won't be happy. They indicate strong supply of rental housing is pushing down rents.
SOOTHING NEWS FOR THE RBNZ
Every quarter the RBNZ surveys a range of professional analysts about what they think the future holds. The latest survey results were released today (M14) and there was little-change from Q2. This quarter, the survey went into the field on July 22, 2025, following Stats NZ’s Consumers Price Index release on July 21. Annual CPI inflation for the June 2025 quarter was 2.7%, up from 2.5% in the March 2025 quarter. The mean one-year-ahead annual inflation expectation decreased from 2.41% to 2.37%, a decrease of 4 basis points compared to the last quarter. The mean two year-ahead annual inflation expectation decreased by 1 basis point, from 2.29% last quarter to 2.28% in the September 2025 quarter. More here.
NEW STUFF
Interest.co.nz recently teamed up with Quashed to help you track insurance premium changes for car insurance. Here's our new tool to help you wrestle with car insurance renewals. And yesterday we launched our new quiz feature which will challenge your knowledge and memory. You can take it here.
WE ARE HIRING
We have an opening in Wellington for a full-time Press Gallery journalist who can help us explain the New Zealand economy to New Zealanders. 2026 is Election Year, so there will be a lot to cover. See this.
NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is now down -0.6% so far on Tuesday and deteriorating. That puts it also -0.5% lower over the past five working days. However it is up +3.6% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +6.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has dipped -0.3% so far today. Kathmandu, Freightways, SkyCity casino, and Vista gain, but Vital Healthcare, Serko, a2 Milk, and EBOS decline.
REFINANCING SIGNALED
Kiwibank said it is likely to raise up to $200 mln (plus the ability to accept oversubscriptions at Kiwibank’s discretion) of unsecured subordinated notes. This funding is expected to constitute Tier 2 Capital for Kiwibank’s regulatory capital requirements. These funds will largely fund their existing unsecured subordinated notes which they said they wil redeem on December 11, 2025.
SUDDEN TURN POSITIVE
In Australia, the Westpac consumer confidence survey was suddenly quite positive, the first positive result since early 2022 and a seven year high. It reported that Christmas spending plans will be less restrained than last year. Consumers think the domestic economy is improving while they think trade risks are subsiding. One group however reported less confidence - those in their 'mortgage belt. They see interest rate risks along with job security risks.
UNCHANGED POSITIVE
Meanwhile, there wasn't the same uplift in business confidence. The NAB business sentiment survey reported little-change in October, just marginally lower than in September
SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again today especially at the short end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.47% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.41%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 4.14%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Monday's rate is up +3 bps to 4.11%. The UST 10yr yield is holding at 4.12%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now down -0.5% in Tuesday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has risen +0.6% at its open. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open. Shanghai is down -0.3%. Singapore is up +1.4% at its open. Wall Street rose +1.5% on the S&P500.
OIL LITTLE-CHANGED
The oil price in the US is little-changed at just under US$60/bbl and the international Brent price is still just under US$64/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STAYS DOWN
There have been very few trades today after yesterday's price fall to $44/NZU. It was last at this level, briefly, on May 2024, and prior to that July 2023. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$88 from this morning, now at US$4131/oz.
NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at just on 56.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 48.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +10 bps at 60.9.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$105,752 and virtually unchanged from yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just over +/- 1.2%.
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4 Comments
Chief of OneWoof Greg Hornblow has departed suddenly. Don't know too much about him but something of a legend of the marketing of real estate in Aotearoa.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/oneroof-boss-greg-hornblow-departs/…
Tokyo has been officially ranked as the world's richest city by GDP in 2025, with an estimated GDP of $2.55 trillion, surpassing other major urban economies such as New York and Los Angeles.
Tokyo’s wealth is rooted in decades of innovation, particularly in technology, automotive engineering, and precision manufacturing. It is also a significant center for global finance, hosting many of the world’s largest investment banks and insurance firms, as well as being home to a high concentration of Fortune Global 500 company headquarters.
Expect some howls of protest at the water coolers about the methodology used. But it is what it is.
I mean, it is also the world's most populated city.
I also think most water cooler attendees wouldn't even mention this, let alone protest it. Why do you need to include imaginary detractors in your thinking?
Per capita stat would be interesting. Greater Tokyo is over 37 million people now. But also depends what geography they're measuring - 23 wards or also the bedroom prefectures
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