Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
All the main banks have cut their floating rates, but only by -15 bps or -20 bps. They were joined by SBS Bank and TSB today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
You can find the bank savings account reductions following the OCR cut, here. They were joined by TSB, Kernel and Sharesies today. And Westpac has cut all its term deposit rates to 18 months today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
WALLETS START TO OPEN ...
The latest data on retail spending was much stronger than expected. StatsNZ reports a +$472 mln inflation-adjusted, seasonally-adjusted increase in the volume of retail sales in the September quarter with the increase dominated by rises in electronic goods and motor vehicle sales. That's a lift of +1.9%.
... WITH SOME CONFIRMATION
And business is seeing that. Business confidence as tracked in the ANZ Business Outlook survey is now at its highest level in 11 years. ANZ's chief economist says the improvement in sentiment 'is rooted in an improvement in experienced activity, not just hope'.
ASSET RICH, INCOME POOR
June 2025 data released today by StatsNZ on the government accounts reveals an interesting issue. Local government apparently has $151 bln invested in 'buildings and structures' whereas central government has $134 bln in these same types of assets. But local government only generated $20.6 bln in annual operating revenue whereas central government generated $149.7 bln.
MATCHING -5% CUT
Synlait has matched Fonterra, dropping its 2025/26 season milk payout forecast from $10/kgMS to $9.50. Also, see this.
BETTER RESULTS I
State farner Pāmu (Landcorp Farming) has announced an updated forecast net operating profit for the financial year ending 30 June 2026 of between $80 to $90 mln, up from the August 2025 forecast of between $69 to $79 mln and well above its target of $61.3 mln contained in its FY26-FY28 Statement of Corporate Intent. Better global markets are a big part of this improvement.
VERY GOOD PRODUCTIVITY RISE
The latest New Zealand Dairy Statistics 2024/25, reveals total milksolids production rose +2.9% in 2024/25 to 1.94 bln kilograms, despite a -0.5% fall in cow numbers to 4.68 mln. The lift was driven by record-high productivity per cow, with the average cow producing 414 kgs of milksolids, which is up +14kg or +3.5% from last season.
ACCESS TO CASH MAY NEED A STICK
The RBNZ seems concerned banks want to pull back from handling currency notes and coins. They say "The public expect banks to provide cash services to them. In addition to the Community Cash Trial we are looking at how best to expand cash services across New Zealand and one option is encouraging banks to voluntarily commit to providing their customers with good access to full cash services to a minimum standard. We will speak with banks about this approach soon, but we may need to use our existing powers to obtain the right outcomes if voluntary commitments fall short."
NZGB BONDS
The very hot demand for NZ Government Bonds has continued with $2.1 bln in 105 bids received today for the two tranches offered of $450 mln. Only 22 bids were successful. But bidders achieved huigher yields that the prior equivalent events two weeks ago.
NZX50 SLIPS SLIGHTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.3% so far on Thursday. That puts it up +0.6% over the past five working days. It is up +3.5% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +2.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.2% so far today after yesterday's big gain. Kathmandu, Tower, Vector, and Ryman post gains while Scales, Tourism Holdings, The NZX and Serko all slip.
BETTER RESULTS II
Kiwi insurer Tower (TWR) has announced a record underlying profit performance for the year ended 30 September 2025, delivering an underlying NPAT of $107.2 mln and a reported full profit of $83.7 mln. The result was driven by low large events/disaster costs and a significantly reduced business-as-usual claims ratio, alongside customer growth.
KIWISAVER FUND MANAGERS ADD +6.4% TO BALANCES
Total KiwiSaver assets now exceed $140 bln according to the September quarterly RBNZ data released today. The value of these assets is up +14.7% or +$18.0 bln from a year ago, with those assets held in New Zealand up +7.9% and assets held outside New Zealand up almost +20%. Of course, some of the rise in 'value' will be current contributions, which according to the IRD, was +$6.3 bln from employees, +$3.5 bln from employers, and with the Government top-ups, totals +$10.9 bln. So the fund managers added +$7.1 bln in the year, or +6.4% on the starting balance in September 2024. (For reference, the NZ Super Fund saw their portfolio grow more than +10% in the same period.)
BACKSTOP STILL BUILDING
The RBNZ's total foreign currency intervention capacity rose to $27.25 bln as at the end of October although some of this will be because they value this in NZD. But from a year ago it has risen +11%.
DTI RULES TIGHTENED TO LIMIT FROTH RISKS
In Australia, prudential regulator APRA has said it will limit high debt-to-income home loans to constrain riskier lending that is starting to show up in that market. Some of it has been induced by the Canberra government's taxpayer-subsidised 5% deposit guarantee scheme.
INVESTING FASTER
And staying in Australia, new private capital spending is rising and more quickly than expected. The rise was largely driven by non-mining industries, which recorded a +13.0% jump, while spending on mining equipment and machinery grew just +4.5%.
KOREA ON HOLD
The Bank of Korea held its base policy rate at 2.5% at today's meeting, the final policy session of the year. It did this despite concerns over the broader Korean economic outlook, including a persistent property market slump and a volatile currency.
SWAP RATES RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably sharply higher again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.41% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.48%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.84%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps from this time yesterday at 4.36%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Wednesday's rate up +6 bps at 4.33%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 3.99%.
EQUITIES RISE, EXCEPT THE NZX50
The local equity market is down -0.4% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.3% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.5% and Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore is +0.3% firmer at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 up +0.7%.
OIL FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The oil price in the US up +50 USc just under US$58.50/bbl and the international Brent price is up at just under US$63/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FALLS
There have been some good sized trades today but at lower prices, dow down to just $40/NZU, and the lowest since July 2023. (It peaked at $90.5/NZU in September 2022.) The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$5/oz from yesterday at this time, now at US$4153/oz.
NZD RISES FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is up another +50 bps from this time yesterday to just on 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +30 bps at 49.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +40 bps from yesterday at just under 61.9.
BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price is now at US$91,195 and up +3.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
9 Comments
"Local government apparently has $151 bln invested in 'buildings and structures' whereas central government has $134 bln in these same types of assets. But local government only generated $20.6 bln in annual operating revenue whereas central government generated $149.7 bln."
Primarily because Central government doesn't pay rates?
The quote is poor journalism by David Chaston.
Both levels are there to serve a public need - health, education, sports facilities, libraries, things that can't turn a profit, or if they did, would not provide the service.
So to rate them on their 'return' - without mentioning social worth, is ignorant.
Sorry, but it is.
The joke is that the System DC - and most of the MSM - touts, is consumption-growth of parts of a finite planet. Measured in keystroke-issued debt tokens (what, exactly, do they measure?). That System is faltering, having run into the physical Limits to Growth. Those who tout it politically, are having to subsume/eliminate all perceived 'impediments' - but aren't addressing the demise. End game is not enough surplus energy to support ANY national-level governance structure - a much bigger issue than which 'returns' (neither generate - wrong word) what amount of proxy?
Simple question DC: Why should a library (say) turn a profit?
We're a long way down the rabbit-hole, aren't we?
To be fair to DC, I think the point he was making was that is a lot of assets to maintain, with limited income (and especially if central govt isn't paying their share).
Aussie really pushing the envelope here. Anywhere else, this would be a crisis.
Over the past five years, the median home price climbed at two-and-a-half times the pace of an average Australian household’s income.
Aggregates show mortgages swallowed 26% of household income in 2020. Fast forward to 2025, and mortgages are swallowing 45% of household income.
Suspect there will be howls of protest about this that it's all sustainable. And maybe those protests are justified. But there's a heap of moolah sucked from discretionary spend if the boomers don't pick up the slack.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/dire-housing-affordability-widening-wealth-16…
Aussie regulators finally showing signs of life (or maybe a kind of virtue signal). APRA has installed debt-to-income limits on home loans for the very first time.
APRA chair John Lonsdale said a debt-to-income lending limit would be put in place with support from other regulators including the RBA.
From February 1, the limit will only allow banks to lend up to 20 per cent of new mortgages at debt of six times income or more. The limit will apply separately to owner-occupier and investor lending.
https://www.apra.gov.au/activating-debt-to-income-limits-as-a-macroprud…
That's interesting to see. Slightly stricter than our own limits (we allow 20% at 7+ for investors for some reason). I do believe this makes a significant different to the classic mom-and-pop investor who wants to lever up and build a portfolio of houses - yields don't allow you much borrowing so you need a lot of outside income to buy more than 1 or 2 extra houses. That old property snowball becomes much slower moving.
I think it's a good move.
APRA is a joke. Headed and staffed by the Game of Mates looking for an overpaid gig before heading off in to the sunset.
The 2018–19 Hayne Royal Commission and a subsequent independent capability review criticised APRA for a “low profile” supervisory style, slow decision‑making and reluctance to use formal enforcement powers, especially where consumer harm (rather than pure system stability) was at stake.
They don't give a rats really.
https://hallandwilcox.com.au/news/the-financial-services-royal-commissi…
Great to see the insurance companies posting ever larger profits. It’s always reassuring to see where my 30% rises in premiums every year for the last 3 are going.
Aussie needs to cut annual migration by almost 120,000 to improve housing affordability as the nation has “clearly failed” to match immigration to what the property market can handle, a leading economist has declared.
https://www.skynews.com.au/business/real-estate/amps-shane-oliver-calls…
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.