Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report so far today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
WBS launched a 4% rate 1 year rate. ICBC raised its 1 year and 18 month rate. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
MORE SELLERS THAN BUYERS
The number of homes listed for sale was at a 10-year high for the month of January. Home buyers continue to have plenty of choice and are taking their time as the market kicks into gear for 2026.
INDEBTED HOUSEHOLDS WIN
Stats NZ says falling interest rates helped push household living costs down to 2.2% and below the official rate of inflation as measured by the Consumers Price Index in the past year of 3.1%. They say a key cause was a -17.3% reduction in interest payments in 2025. This is a curious result, because on Friday, the RBNZ released data that showed home loan interest paid in the December quarter alone was a -13.6% reduction. (For the 2025 year it was $21.25 bln whereas in 2024 was $22.3 bln, just a -4.7% reduction.) Given that a third of all households have no mortgage, the difference between the StatsNZ and RBNZ data is "interesting".
OUR NEW QUIZ IS READY FOR YOU
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 IN MINOR FIRMING
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% so far today. That puts it unchanged over the past five working days. It is up +6.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.1% so far today. Skellerup, Chorus, Channel Infrastructure, and Scales top the gainers to start the week while Fletcher Building, Kathmandu, NZX, and Gentrack are the main decliners
RIP, FFL
We missed it last month in these updates, but in early December, the final repayment of the pandemic-era Funding for Lending program was made. It started on December 11, 2020 with a minor $60 mln advance. It rose to $19.0 bln by November 30, 2022 (which was less than provided for), and was all repaid with OCR interest by December 2025. It was a successful program, despite its critics, because it enabled the banking system to operate normally when the rest of society was far from normal. It solved a potential liquidity stress issue when no-one actually know how things were going o play out.
HELPING OTHERS GAIN CONTROL IN THE COST OF LIVING CRISIS
The Salvation Army is launching its Fresh Start Appeal to support financial mentoring services at a time when the cost‑of‑living crisis is pushing many families to breaking point. With rising prices, holiday spending and back‑to‑school costs piling up all at once, more people are looking for practical support to get their finances back under control and regain a sense of stability. You can support the Salvation Army's Fresh Start Appeal by making a donation, setting up a regular gift, donating your government tax credits or leaving a gift in a will. Every contribution helps someone move from financial stress to stability, and ultimately, to a fresh start, they say.
BUMPING UP AGAINST AFFORDABILITY LIMITS
In Australia, Cotality said low supply levels, first home buyer incentives and a resilient labour market are combining to keep house prices rising. They are up +9.4% nationally from a year ago. But there is wide variation. They said mounting affordability and debt headwinds are butting up against 'fragile sentiment'. This is especially true where the prices are highest, in Sydney and Melbourne, where prices rose only +6.4% and +5.4% in January from a year ago, the least of any major city. The median house price in Sydney is now AU$1.29 mln (NZ$1,5 mln). It is now also above AU$1 mln in Brisbane at AU$1.055 mln (NZ$1.22 mln).
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.51% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.82%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also up +2 bps at 2.27 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp from this morning, now at 4.65%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Friday's rate down -1 bp at 4.61%. The UST 10yr yield is up another +2 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.26%.
EQUITIES GENERALLY LOWER AGAIN
But the local equity market is now unchanged in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.6% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -1.6% today so far and Shanghai is down -0.6%. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 dipping -0.1%. Wall Street futures suggest that the S&P500 will open tomorrow down -0.3%.
OIL RETREATS
The oil price in the US is down -US$2 from this morning at just on US$63/bbl while the international Brent price is just on US$67/bbl.
CARBON PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED, AGAIN
Secondary market activity has seen very few transactions again but the price firmed slightly to $35/NZU today. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DOWN AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold has retreated again, down another -US$163/oz from this morning and now at US$4725/oz. Silver down -US$1 at US$83.50/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this morning against the USD at just on 60.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 63.9 and unchanged from where we started the day..
BITCOIN STAYS DOWN
The bitcoin price is now at US$77,466 and virtually unchanged from this morning's open. Volatility has been moderate however at +/- 2.2%.
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6 Comments
They say a key cause was a -17.3% reduction in interest payments in 2025
The Stats article linked says interest payments including mortgages. I do wonder if many of the post COVID spending on finance in 2020 to 2022 has now been paid off and not replaced. IE vehicles and appliances etc on 3 to 5 year terms. Could explain the difference between stats and RBNZ reporting?
Gold was the top U.S. export for the second consecutive month – the only two months in at least the last 20 years.
A trade debtor that exports gold at a floating price is settling part of its trade deficit in gold at a floating price.
This should result in a much higher gold price, a lower USD, and contained 10y UST yields.
And ultimately, the reshoring of US industry and the US middle class.
The fact that gold exports went from never being #1 in two decades to suddenly being #1 in 2 months number in a row should be setting off alarms.
You would think.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2026/01/30/not-good-news-gold-w…
It appears the US economy is being bouyed by:
- Gold exports
- massive spending on AI
Those are both fairly short term propositions. There will be an AI bust at some point.
Historical times P. The stuff of conspiracy theory. Yet it's all unrolling (and perhaps unravelling) in real time.
Every day is a historical time. We just like to think there's something extra special about the time we occupy.
Sadly, it's all the same cycle just repeating.
Sadly, it's all the same cycle just repeating.
I don't think so. If the cycle you describe is what I think it is Ponzinomics with QE1, QE2, QE3,.....I believe it has fundamentally broken.
QE is to to be replaced by Reserve Management Purposes (same same, but different).
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