A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; BNZ changes mortgage rates, Barfoots has good January, weak Auckland new-build completions, January building consents rise, liquidations jump, swaps and NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ changed some fixed rates today. details here.. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A STRONG START ...
Dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson made a strong start to 2026 with their sales numbers and median selling price both rising in January. Meanwhile their inventory of unsold homes is still high.

... AFTER A WEAK END ...
There was a dramatic downturn in new home completions in Auckland late last year, Auckland Council figures show. New housing completions in Auckland fall to a 7-year low in November.

... BUT WITH MORE COMING
And in December, building permits rose sharply too from the same month a year ago, up +26% on that basis, led by a +49% rise in consents for townhouses, and a 23% rise for new standalone houses. That caps a year for strong residential consenting, led by Auckland's 15,617. On a per-1000-population basis, Auckland rose to 6.9, but was pipped by Canterbury at 10.6 and Otago's 10.4 (driven largely by Queenstown/Wanaka).

MORE ZOMBIES FALL OVER
Credit bureau Centrix says there were nearly 3000 company liquidations last year - the most since 2010 in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, so a 15 year high.

STILL VERY SOFT
Non-residential building finished 2025 on a weak note, with just $584 mln of consents issued in December, the weakest result in a year.

OUR NEW QUIZ IS READY FOR YOU
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 IN ANOTHER MINOR FIRMING
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% so far today. That puts it down -0.5% over the past five working days. It is up +6.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.3% so far today. a2 Milk, F&P Healthcare, Briscoes, and Vista Group lead the gainers; SkyCity casino, Kiwi Property Group, EBOS, and Summerset are the main decliners.

LOOKING AHEAD
There is a full diary auction tomorrow morning and the derivatives market is suggesting that it will be a mixed one. From the prior full auction, even last week's Pulse event, SMP prices may well be very firm, up more than +10%. But WMP is likely to dip, maybe -2%. And a +3% appreciation in the NZD won't help.

BETTER THAN IT LOOKS
Australian residential building permits came in at 14,883 in December (actual), +4% higher than year-ago levels. But from November, the December levels are down -14.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis, although November was the strongest month since 2021. So the actual December result isn't really as weak as it is being made out.

EYES ON THE RBA
Drop back soon when we will have full details on the RBA's cash rate target review. Most analysts expect a +25 bps rise to 3.85% and revering the recent down-trend. Financial markets have priced in only 70% of this rise, so whatever happens there will be wholesale pricing consequences. (Our early report is here.)

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.51% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bp at 4.84% before the RBA decision and its highest since 2011. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also down -2 bps at 2.25 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp from this time yesterday, now at 4.64%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Monday's rate up +1 bp at 4.62%. The UST 10yr yield is up another +2 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.28%.

EQUITIES BOUNCE BACK, MOSTLY
But the local equity market is now unchanged in Tuesday trade so far. The ASX200 is has recovered after yesterday's fall, up +1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up a strong +3.2% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +1.3% today so far and Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore is up +1.0% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday trade up +0.5%.

OIL DIPS
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc from this time yesterday at just unver US$62.50/bbl while the international Brent price is just on US$66.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS SLIGHTLY ON LIGHT TRADE
Secondary market activity has seen very few transactions again but the price firmed to $36/NZU today. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD BOUNCES
In early Asian trade, gold has bounced back,  up +US$111/oz from this time yesterday and now at US$4826/oz. Silver down slightly, now at US$83/oz.

NZD MARGINALLY SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps against the USD at just on 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 63.8 and down -10 bps from yesterday..

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$78,752 and up +1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high however at +/- 3.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».