Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB today dropped its 6 month and one year fixed rates and that takes its one year rate to 4.39%, the lowest in the current market. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB also raised rates for TDs, for 9 months and longer. These changes essentially match the big five banks. Here is a review of the current state of play. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
ON THE UP
Westpac says it is noticing an encouraging lift in discretionary spending, with particularly large increases in spending in the hospitality sector, as well as increased sales of furnishings and other household durables. That equates to a +6% rise in January from a year ago.
MIXED
ANZ's truckometer tracking of road activity shows their The Light Traffic Index (basically cars) eased -1.1% in January but is up a solid +3.6% year-on-year. The Heavy Traffic Index (basically commercial trucks) fell -2.4% in the month, but this was off the back of a +3.2% lift in December. It is up 2.0% year-on-year, with annual growth trending up, they report..
A DIFFERENT IMMIGRATION PROFILE
Student immigration is building back, but differently to pre-pandemic profiles. Secondary schools are increasingly popular with overseas students, tertiary institutions not so much. This is trend that has housing market implications.
JOINING THE PACK AFTER GETTING IT WRONG
ANZ analysts had set their dairy payout forecast way lower than other analysts. Today the shifted back in line with the consensus.
DO THE QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
MONITORING INTERNAL CORRUPTION
A review by the Anti-Corruption Taskforce of monitoring and controls at the Department of Corrections, Inland Revenue, ACC, Ministry of Social Development, Land Information New Zealand, and Sport New Zealand, found that cases of internal fraud and corruption are almost certainly being under-reported due to inadequate prevention and detection controls in some agencies, and gaps in reporting. Some were much better at this than others. Leading tis review was the SFO.
NZX50 IN A SMALL SLIP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% so far today. That puts it down -0.1% over the past five working days. It is up +3.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is back up +1.4% so far today. Vulcan Steel, Napier Port, Property for Industry, and Precinct top today's gainers as Freightways, SkyCity casino, Ryman, and Serko are the main decliners
RATES UP, SENTIMENT DOWN
In Australia, consumer sentiment slipped in February, and not insignificantly. Recall, the RBA has recently pushed through a rate rise. Analysts say the fall is muted response compared to previous rate hikes. Over 80% of those surveyed expect interest rates to rise further in the next 12 months. Homebuyer sentiment has sunk as price expectations hit new 15 year high.
SWAP RATES STABLE
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate held at 2.49% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.85%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also unchanged at 2.27 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is holding as well at 4.56%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Monday's rate also still at 4.54%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.19% and dipping lower toward mid-January levels.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER, NZX MISSES OUT
But the local equity market is a little firmer in Tuesday trade, up +0.3% so far. The ASX200 is also up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up another +2.4% in its opening trade, with a post-election glow extending. Hong Kong is up another +1.2% today so far but Shanghai is up only +0.1%. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street started its week firmly, with the S&P500 up +0.5%.
OIL FIRMER
American oil prices are up about +US$1 from yesterday at this time at just on US$64/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$69/bbl.
CARBON PRICE RISES
There have been some more good trades today on the secondary market and the price has risen +50c to $38.25/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold has risen slightly from this time yesterday, up +US$38/oz and now at US$5028/oz. Silver is up +US$2, now just over US$82/oz.
NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 85.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.9 and up +20 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,377 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate however at +/- 2.0%.
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26 Comments
"Westpac says it is noticing an encouraging lift in discretionary spending" - surely this is impossible, entropy and all.
Discretionary spending can increase, when in reality it's flat or going backwards. People anchor on nominal figures (salary up, spend up) and under‑adjust for inflation, so they feel they are spending more freely even as their purchasing power erodes. An individual’s restaurant and leisure spend rises from $10K to $11K year‑on‑year (+10%), but prices in those categories are up 15–20%; in real terms, they can afford fewer or lower‑quality experiences than a year earlier, despite a higher nominal discretionary budget.
Always be careful of the snake oil. It's omnipresent.
Yes.
So what is real inflation running at?
And how much debt is being incurred? (because we can all up our spending, discretionary or not, by upping our debt. That's what we've done planet-wide).
Which all points to the obvious fact that money is not a real marker.
Which begs the question: Why do so many need, so fiercely, to myopically fixate on it?
You get it Power. As for how much debt is being incurred, that is essentially measured by money supply. And that increase in debt is essentially inflation.
We have a civil duty to upset the narratives at the water coolers and BBQs.
Not with what you're peddling though.
It's also "civic" duty.
The fixation is part and parcel of status. Humans, unlike say the biggest and meanest lion or gorilla, worked out that possessions could create power which could in turn surmount the importance of personal physical prowess. The old Russian authors were good at explaining the limitations of that. I forget which one had the family of aristocrats, during the winter famine, trying to trade diamond tiaras with the serfs for bread.
Damn tootin'
What many people dont understand
That when it all goes whoopsie daisy hyper inflation
Gold's not really worth that much.
Gold is ALWAYs worth something.
But sure having sheep, beef and the ability to close local roads via decent ownership of 22, 308 and shotgun reloaders in times of marshal law is also good.
Briton held it together during the Blitz , I am sure NZ can withstand a collapse of USD.
"Gold is ALWAYs worth something"
Lol...can you eat or drink it? Will it shelter you from the elements?
Gold is as fiat...excepting it may be somewhat more cross border.
I suspect that people who have a lot of physical also have the smarts to have covered off food water and power for at least a 12 month period... probably have guns, ammo and ability to close local roads, lets just call them rural NZ....
I'd say most won't, but some will.
So their real preparation is not gold but rather force....and hoping they wont be overcome.
When it goes tits up, production evaporates, so your gold is worth a lot less, as there's less goods to chase.
The Bitis, stay calm and carry on? Not bloody likely. Not with the media circus today turning every mole hill into a mountain and the conspiracy freaks lapping it up.
It was easier for "leadership" back then... but almost every neighbor I have is licensed, local leadership steps in.
if you live in a city sure life would be harder you would depend on central leadership.
hell I must have 10 years of tress to provide heat and I can sort meat with a bullet and knife
NZ could implement marshal law with little practice call it a covid level 4 lockdown or level 3 with stick trucks etc
Jacinda proved a fear of death works, marshal law is just that
Which all points to the obvious fact that money is not a real marker.
Anything can be a real marker. It's just what does the marker represent.
Fiat currency has actually been the most stable, sane form of money for the past 5 years.
Fiat currency is constantly devalued. Gold has been used for more than 2 thousand years
It's devalued, but usually slowly. But it's usually more useful than gold in a modern economy, and it's fairly stable.
If there was only gold most people would still be serfs.
what about 50 years?
5 seems a bit stupid my kids are 18, so saying fiat has not been great for 18 year olds seems strange , since they are the future.
my kids gold has made them more money then their kiwisaver
SA grand parents understand.
what about 50 years?
You shouldn't just stack cash for 50 years.
I don't think I've ever had much more than 10-15% stored in cash. But it's good to know if you ever need it, you don't have to think about "timing"
"Westpac says it is noticing an encouraging lift in discretionary spending" - surely this is impossible, entropy and all.
spending more for the same thing with fiat is what entropy is all about
Westpac data is NOT reflective of the national data. They have been showing 5% yearonyear increases for months while official data says 0%.
I assume their data is reflective of their cliental?....or do they source additional data fro the likes of Stats NZ when they make their statements?
Which they're honest about. Their data is based on spend on Westpac-issued debit and credit cards. All data is directional at best, even if it's collected and produced by the govt. Methodologies have their frailties and limitations.
I've harped on at times about Truflation in the U.S. showing that CPI inflation might be lower than what it is. Others have taken it further and questions its accuracy. But also is critical of the bureuacrats.
The broader point here is that the Federal Reserve’s credibility is being eroded.
When the US public loses faith in the central bank’s commitment or ability to maintain price stability, we risk inflation expectations becoming unanchored. As Milton Friedman taught us, expectations matter greatly for inflation dynamics.
The evidence for this erosion of credibility is mounting.
https://marketmonetarist.com/2025/02/13/credibility-problems-the-fed-is…
On Wednesday morning, Commonwealth Bank will deliver what is arguably the most important result of the February reporting season, when it hands down its numbers for the December half.
The major concern is that AI agents can take over what software accomplishes today. When one agent can automate what ten humans used to do, that’s ten subscription seats that the software vendor loses. The data is already showing per-user pricing dropping off a cliff.
It is estimated that in the long run, AI agents will steal 60% of profit from software companies.
This is key,
Also whats apparent is just how much AI agents can achieve in a 24 hour period, now if the tokens are actually available to spend which is a new question.
AI can use exponentially more tokens then humans in a 24 hr period, even if this spend is providing benefit , is it actually available? Ie IS THERE ENOUGH INFERENCE AVAIABLE TO PURCHASE?
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