Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. These changes essentially match the big five banks. Here is a review of the current state of play. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
CHRISTCHURCH & QUEENSTOWN SHINE IN OTHERWISE DULL RESULT
Ready-mixed concrete production eked out its first positive annual growth in more than three years, with volumes in Q4-2025 up +0.4% from a year earlier. Leading the rise was Christchurch, up +11% and Otago/Southland region (presumably driven by the Queenstown/Wanaka area) up +13%. Auckland remained weak, down -3.5 on that same basis, Wellington was down -1.2%.
60,000 HOMES UNINSURED
Insurance affordability and the financial settings are a 'downstream symptom' of increasing risk, the Natural Hazards Commission boss says, as Southern Response continues to expect new claims.
DAIRY PRICES RISE AGAIN
The overnight dairy Pulse auction not only confirmed the prior week's sharp rises, it added to them. WMP was up a marginal +0.4% from a week ago to be up +14% from the start of 2026. Butter was up +6.8% from last week, up +18% year-to-date. And the SMP price was up +1.7% from last week, also up +14% so far this year. Everyone in the industry will welcome this confirmation of the recent rising trend, even if some of it is just USD weakness.
PUBLIC SECTOR CORRUPTION RISES AGAIN
New Zealand's Corruption Perceptions Index score has fallen by two points for the fourth consecutive year, a 10% drop overall. While we still rank equal fourth with Norway, this continued slide reflects diminishing confidence among business experts and international assessors in the integrity of the public sector. Over the past year, prosecutions involving bribery, deception, and misuse of public funds and power, including bid-rigging, cartel behaviour, driver licensing rorts and COVID-related fraud, have highlighted systemic weaknesses and a troubling disregard for both public money and integrity in general. The scale of the issue in the private sector is unknown. It isn't likely to be less.
THE SCOURGE OF UNINSURED CARS ON THE ROADS
Unlike Australia, we don't have compulsory third party car insurance (to get a car registered). The transport minister thinks the gains wouldn't be as good as some claim. (He is likely wrong about that.)
DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
HOW TO MAKE $765 MLN IN SIX MONTHS, 12% PA ON CAPITAL INVESTED
ASB's CEO says she sees 'more confidence in the economy' as rising costs hold down the bank's half-year profit increase to just +1%, despite a net interest margin rise to 2.35% from 2.24% a year ago. The increase was attributed in part to higher home lending margins. Staffing rose from 6272 to 6897 employees. Parent CBA also posted a AU$5.4 bln profit result and its stock price has risen +6.8% so far today, although only up +4.8% from a year ago.
POLICY YO-YO?
Westpac economists are now forecasting six OCR hikes over the period to the end of 2027, taking the OCR back to 4.0% or more. It was last at 4% in February 2025, so a pretty rapid back-track over two years is being predicted. "We think at this point just modestly restrictive interest rates of around 4.25% will be ultimately required to keep inflation close to 2%." (Yes, it's only one analyst's prediction.)
NZX50 IN ANOTHER SMALL SLIP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down another -0.2% so far today. That puts it up +0.5% over the past five working days. It is up +4.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.5% so far today in a yoyo pattern. Kathmandu, Sky TV, a2 Milk, and Investore Property lead the gains for the NZX50; Serko, EBOS, Tourism Holdings, and Freightways are the main the decliners
MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACKS
The Government has instituted an inquiry into the RBNZ's pandemic response, to be released before the election (and become a stick they can beat the Labour Party with). They have appointed monetary policy experts Athanasios Orphanides and David Archer to conduct it. Dr Orphanides is a former governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, and a professor of the Practice of Global Economics and Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. David Archer is a former Reserve Bank assistant governor and former head of the Central Banking Studies Unit at the Bank for International Settlements, which he left in 2022. (See Transparency International's report above. If this was a genuine review, they would have called it when National/Act/NZFirst took office in 2023. Waiting to weaponise it as an election issue smells like pure theater.)
SURGING
In Australia, the number of new owner-occupier new home loan commitments rose +7.5% in the December 2025 quarter compared with a year ago. On a value basis, that rose +18.9%. For housing investor loans for the same periods, the number of new loans rose +24%, and their value rose +32%.
INFLATION ERADICATED?
There is still no inflation in China, and it has turned toward deflation faster than expected. Their annual inflation rate eased to +0.2% in January from an already very low 0.8% in the previous month. This is its lowest level since October and below market estimates of 0.4%. Food prices fell for the first time in three months (-0.7% vs 1.1% in December) while non-food inflation slowed sharply too (0.4% vs 0.8%). Meanwhile, Chinese producer price deflation eased to -1.4%.
SWAP RATES EASE SLIGHTLY
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate held at 2.49% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps at 4.77%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed but now just under 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -3 bps at 2.24 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.52%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate down -1 bps at 4.53%. The UST 10yr yield is down another -5 bps from yesterday, now below 4.14% and its lowest level of 2026.
EQUITIES MIXED, BUT TOKYO CONTINUES TO STAR
But the local equity market is a little softer in Wednesday trade, down -0.4% so far. The ASX200 is up +1.4% however in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up another +2.3% in its opening trade, with a post-election glow extending further. Hong Kong is unchanged today so far and Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore is unchanged at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.3%.
OIL LITTLE-CHANGED
American oil prices are up about +50 USc from yesterday at this time at just on US$64.50/bbl, but the international Brent price is holding at just on US$69/bbl.
CARBON PRICE RISES AGAIN
There have been some more trades today on the secondary market and the price has risen +$2 to $40.25/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS SLIGHTLY AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold has risen slightly from this time yesterday, up +US$20/oz and now at US$5048/oz. Silver is unchanged at just over US$82/oz.
NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday against the USD, still at just on 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 85.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.9 and unchanged from yesterday.
BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price is now at US$68,979 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest however at +/- 1.8%.
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3 Comments
In Australia, the number of new owner-occupier new home loan commitments rose +7.5% in the December 2025 quarter compared with a year ago.
A 9.5% QoQ print against 4.8% expected implies roughly double the forecast impulse to housing credit in one quarter.
Aussie inflation must be worst in the developed world. And with the govt throwing everything at the Ponzi, this should really come as no surprise. The investor share of total finance continues to trend up with the FHB share trending down, even with Albo's reckless 5% deposit scheme.
https://australianpropertyupdate.com.au/apu/rba-move-prompts-big-banks-…
Aussie look similar to where we were post Covid.
Public Sector Corruption Rises Again. That captioned segment, given the great deal of government printed money spent, is not entirely divorced from the entry below, the new RBNZ enquiry. There was at that time too a huge influx of public servants. It is all rather disquieting. Past exposures of corporate failures, and that of other largish entities, have always revealed that what looked bad from the outside was inevitably found to be, far worse on the inside. The Australians aptly and accurately describe this as the outfit as having been white anted. It is disquieting because trends are indicating that in NZ it is becoming more and more easy and prevalent for systems, businesses and civil services to be rorted and profligately abused and there is neither accountability nor restitution to follow.
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