A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; REINZ data weak, retail sales weak, services sector improves, inflation seen at 4%, population ages, NZX50 falls again, swaps hold, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes today. Here is a review of the current state of play. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

WEAK START I
The housing market made a weak start to 2026 with sales volumes and prices both softer in January, according to the latest REINZ data. And the number of new listings in January was the second highest for any month since the end of 2021. Although the stock of property for sale fell slightly, it is only 1.2% below October 2025’s 10-year high.

WEAK START II
According to StatsNZ electronic card transaction data, total retail sales were only up +0.4% from the same January month a year ago, with core retail up only +1.1%. There vale changes are not inflation adjusted, so that means they fell in real terms. Seasonal adjustment doesn't make the data look any better. All the same, the retail industry is desperate for any signs of gains and welcomed this result.

TURNING AROUND
In contrast, the BNZ/BusinessNZ services PMI was more upbeat. The service sector expanded again in January, following on from similar growth in manufacturing. 'The big question to end 2025 was whether the economy may be turning. Data since then has given us confidence that recent positive momentum can be sustained. The economy is growing', noted BNZ.

STABLE BUT OLDER
StatsNZ said the resident population of New Zealand was 5,342,000 as at December 31, 2025. That is up +0.6% for the year. We also ended the year with the median age of the population at 38.4 years, its highest ever.

DIFFERING VIEWS
The RBNZ H1 survey of households and their inflation expectations shows then thinking inflation will be 4.0% in one years time, just as they did in the December 2025 quarter. Still, that is quite a bit more than the M14 survey of 'experts' released on Friday which suggested it would be 2.59% in one year. However, the consumer survey isn't getting worse so the RBNZ may well like that aspect. Also see this.

NEW QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

MAKING EDEN PARK GREAT AGAIN
Under the new settings, Eden Park will be able to host up to 12 large concerts and 20 medium-sized concerts per year as permitted activities, without needing resource consent. That’s up from its current limit of 12 concerts, which were not permitted to be from more than six different artists or acts. Timing restrictions will also be eased.

NZX50 TURNS DOWN AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.7% so far today and falling. That puts it down -2.5% over the past five working days. It is up a meager +1.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +0.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -5.0% so far today. a2 Milk, Tourism Holdings, Vulcan Steel, and Gentrack lead gains with Meridian, Fletcher, Mercury, and Ryman the main decliners.

TO BE SOLD AGAIN?
Morgan Stanley Infrastructure, the owner of Strait Ferries and the operator of the Bluebridge Cook Strait service, is looking to offload them and has put them up for sale, or so the market chat goes.

SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower today except perhaps for the 1 year. Update: they eased across the maturity curve, and by a bit more than we suspected. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 2.51% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.73%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.20 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged from this morning at 4.50%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Friday's rate down -5 bps at 4.47%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from this morning, now just on 4.05%.

EQUITIES MIXED BUT QUIET
But the local equity market is lower in Monday trade, down -0.7% so far following Friday's fall. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.2% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.2% today so far but is only open for the morning, and Shanghai is closed for a week. Singapore is closed today too. Wall Street is on holiday, President's Day, and won't be back until Wednesday, our time.

OIL HOLDS
American oil prices are little-changed from this morning at just under US$63/bbl, while the international Brent price is now over US$67.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STABLE
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market and the price is back to at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen marginally from this morning, down -US$13/oz and now at US$5028/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just on US$78/oz.

NZD QUIET
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this morning's open against the USD, still at just on 60.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 85.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.7 and unchanged from this morning.

BITCOIN NET STABLE
The bitcoin price is now at US$68,656 and and up just +0.1% from this morning's open. Volatility has stayed moderate however at +/- 2.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».