Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes today. Here is a review of the current state of play. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
AFFORDABILITY PRESSURES INTENSIFY
Food prices rocketed up +2.5% in the past month the highest monthly rise in food prices for four years, driving the annual food price rise up +4.6%. The RBNZ my have been comfortable with yesterday's consumer future inflation expectations, but this January data won't help. Interestingly, Foodstuffs claims that the cost of groceries from their suppliers only rose 2.3% in January from a year ago.
BUT NOT ON EVERYTHING
Included with the food price update were other selected price changes. They ranged from lower petrol prices (-4.8%) and higher electricity prices (+11.5%). Overall however, these components probably came in slightly lower than analysts were expecting.
TAKE A BREAK, DO OUR NEW QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
RETAILERS ARE MORE UPBEAT
The latest Retail Radar report shows confidence among retailers is at a two-year high, with 77% of respondents saying they are ‘confident’ or ‘very confident’ their business will survive the next 12 months. This is a big jump on the 65% in the previous survey, and a positive sign that retailers may finally be starting to experience some gains.
RISK-BASED INSURANCE PRICING ENCOURAGES SHOPPING AROUND
Consumer NZ’s latest house and contents premium survey found relief in insurance prices in Auckland, while prices in Wellington and Christchurch continue to rocket. They say significant savings are on the table for some people as house insurance premiums rise sharply in a few cities and drop in others.
EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
There is a full dairy auction tomorrow morning, and the derivatives market is signaling that the last week's higher prices will hold or rise. In fact, SMP may get another good gain to extend its recent run of good form. WMP might inch ahead too.
CHANCE VOIGHT UPDATE
The FMA's moves against the Chance Voight set of companies needs High Court orders to authorise it to progress its liquidation actions. But the High Court is not doing the "first call" until February 19, and wont start hearings until April 20 at the absolute earliest.
NZX50 TURNS DOWN AGAIN, WIPES OUT Y/Y GAINS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far today and falling. That puts it down -3.4% over the past five working days. It is up a meager +0.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now essentially unchanged. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -2.1% so far today. Vista, a2 Milk, Goodman, and Gentrack lead today's gains, while Contact, Oceania, Summerset, and Fletcher are the main decliners.
DELAYING CHILDBIRTH
StatsNZ is pointing out that updated demographic data shows the proportion of births to mothers aged under 25 years in 2025 reached a record low of 1 in 7 births, half of what it was a generation ago. There were 57,705 live births registered in 2025. In 1995 (around one generation ago), the number of births was similar, with 57,672 live births registered that year. In 1965 (around two generations ago), the number of births was slightly higher, at 60,045. Fourteen percent of births in 2025 were to mothers aged under 25 years (‘younger mothers’). This is down from 28 percent in 1995, and 46 percent in 1965. The median age of mothers who gave birth in 2025 was 31.7 years, up from 28.6 years in 1995 and 25.5 years in 1965.
MORE INDIGESTION
Results from the latest survey for the Reserve Bank show a sharp rise in expectation by businesses of the level of inflation in two-year's time - which is the key timeframe the RBNZ looks at.
SWAP RATES STABLE
Wholesale swap rates are probably stable today after yesterday's late softness. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.51% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.70%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -3 bps at 2.17 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps from yesterday at 4.48%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Monday's rate down -3 bps at 4.44%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from this time yesterday, now just on 4.04%.
EQUITIES MIXED BUT QUIET
The local equity market is lower in Tuesday trade, down -0.5% on an extended down trend. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.7% in its opening trade. Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed for the CNY holiday. Singapore is closed today too. Wall Street is on holiday, President's Day, and won't be back until Wednesday, our time.
OIL HOLDS
American oil prices are little-changed from this morning at just under US$63/bbl, while the international Brent price is now over US$67.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STALLS
There have been very few trades again today on the secondary market and the price is still at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD EASES
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen marginally from this time yesterday, down -US$71/oz and now at US$4959/oz. Silver is down-US$2 at just under US$76/oz.
NZD SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 85.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.5 and down -20 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN STILL STABLE
The bitcoin price is now at US$68,680 and and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has stayed modest however at +/- 1.9%.
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28 Comments
Foodstuffs claims that the cost of groceries from their suppliers only rose 2.3% in January from a year ago.
Same same but different. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has taken Coles to the Federal Court alleging it ran “illusory” or fake discounts on hundreds of products under its “Down Down” promotions. The claim is that Coles temporarily increased prices by at least about 15% on everyday items, then advertised “price drops” back to a level that was at or above the previous regular price, potentially misleading shoppers during a cost‑of‑living squeeze.
Coles denies the allegations, arguing its discounts were genuine and that price rises reflected inflation and supplier cost pressures; the case has been described by a former ACCC head as a “case of the century” for supermarkets.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-16/accc-coles-federal-court-case-di…
Good to see having more food retailers brings cheaper prices!
Maybe they can argue "not going to charge you more" is the same as a discount.
On a related matter, anyone notice how many counts of eggs they sell now? Used to be 6 or 12, now it's 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15 and 20. They'll say we now have more choice, I say it's a marketing exercise so you can't tell how much you might be overpaying.
Good to see having more food retailers brings cheaper prices!
Aussie has a comparatively inefficient food retail sector. The most competitive supermarket sector in the developed world is arguably Japan, which is structurally fragmented and highly competitive (supported by govt policy) - the fragmentation being a core strength rather than a bug in the system for shoppers and consumers.
Aussie beef sells at lower prices on Japanese shelves than in Aussie, despite 20%+ tariffs and transport costs. This is because of the complexity and competitiveness of the Japan food retail ecosystem.
Sub $10 minimum wage also helps immensely, as does being a larger buyer.
Try going somewhere where workers are paid even less. I can get a nice meal for $1. State of the art distribution system, dude with chickens in a wooden crate on the back of a scooter.
Yeah I pick up the 10 pack regularly then realise their trick.
I don't get the competition thing. Imagine if we split bunnings and mitre10 up into lots of smaller chains, does anyone believe that would reduce prices? I feel like hardware was a lot more expensive before those two behemoths.
Maybe splitting resale and wholesale would help.
To be honest there should just be one giant warehouse where you go pick up your stuff. The competition we have, usually makes their point of difference the brands they sell, or the same stuff but sold in slightly different quantities.
But yeah sometimes economies of scale is a thing that's better than a bunch of small players.
Our big supermarket chains are not efficient, they make their money from control. Break them up.
They aren’t big by world standards. Break them up too much and they’d be dairies.
And I don’t think they are that expensive- if you add 15% GST to the supermarket prices of similar countries I don’t think they’d be much cheaper.
“Our big supermarket chains are not efficient.”
The number of former suburban grocery shops (eg Four Square) and butcher shops now either empty or op shops suggest some efficiency.
There's a reason most people aren't doing their weekly food shop at the dairy.
Shrinkflation works wonders
I've always admired those Aussies who frequently call a spade a bloody shovel, kiwis have a tendency to wimp out. And our judiciary has long given good reason for contempt.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/home-property/360939771/unconscionable-westpac-…
I've never really understood that expression cause spades and shovels are different and do different jobs . A shovel is not just a manly name for a spade .
Somerset Maugham origin apparently
the case has been described by a former ACCC head as a “case of the century” for supermarkets.
Good to see Oz regulators have some teeth. Something we could aspire to.
Ray Dalio’s article 'The World Order Has Broken Down' is online. Best read and interpreted for yourself, but he argues that the post‑1945 rules‑based international order has effectively ended and the world has entered a more chaotic “Stage 6” of his Big Cycle, where raw power overrides formal rules and institutions.
Dalio believes that people have far too little exposure to gold, commodities, resource‑linked assets and too much long‑duration bonds and excess cash. He also emphasizes owning claims on entities that provide essential goods and services with minimal dependence on fragile global supply chains: food, energy, critical materials, basic infrastructure. On that note, Aotearoa is somewhat failing considering we have weak food and energy security, as well as woeful investment in basic infrastructure.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-official-world-order-has-broken-down…
Yip read the book 'Changing World Order' when it came out a few years ago. That with 'The 4th Turning' at a similar time and when viewed together, what seems like a chaotic mess we have in the world right now, actually makes a lot of sense.
It's all happening for reasons.
The biggest one being we haven't fundamentally changed enough not to keep repeating the same habits and behaviour.
Actual free will, is very rare, if present at all.
On that note, Aotearoa is somewhat failing considering we have weak food and energy security, as well as woeful investment in basic infrastructure.
Our economy like most is set up for efficiency. So our agricultural sector is geared around a handful of core products (economies of scale). One of our few core benefits is the ability to produce a wide variety of foodstuffs, more efficiently than most other places in earth. If needed, our current agricultural setup can be reconfigured in a handful of years to provide a wider balance of food stuffs. We won't go short on animal protein anyway.
In a declining global order, export items are of high value, and foodstuffs will fall in that category. Which we would then sell in order to acquire the things we don't have.
Our basic infrastructure is pretty good. For basic infrastructure. You wouldn't want it much more complex, as complexity usually is imported, so ongoing servicing and maintenance becomes problematic.
Life will be very different, we are better place than most of the rest of the world.
I don't think you understand. Guyana, China, and Vietnam were identified as having the highest levels of food self sufficiency among nations, even if that does not make sense to you. In the case of the communist countries, that is partly because they have food security policies. Aotearoa and Aussie do not. Just because both countries are food producers does not mean they have higher levels of food security than other countries.
I felt my reply responded directly to this talking point you have mentioned before. That's an index based on the state of things as it stands today. Which as I said, assumes free an open global trade. See the countries who are red for most categories? They're the ones with problems.
China needs a policy like this, we don't. 10s of millions of their people starved to death in recent history.
How about you JC? If the supermarket is empty and you can't get food delivered, how secure is your caloric supply?
China needs a policy like this, we don't. 10s of millions of their people starved to death in recent history.
Yes China needs a food security policy. Most East Asian nations have food security policies because it's an important pillar for socio-economic development and also important for developed markets like S'pore, Japan, and Korea.
Aotearoa does not feel it needs food security policies, yet the paradox is exposed when food (and the other elements on the lowest rung on hierarchy of needs) of developed economies require an increasing share of individual / h'hold income and labor.
You've just made a list of net food importers though. That all got to experience decent periods without enough calories, in living memory. That's why they have a food security policy.
Other counties require similar policy around water, for similar reasons.
Aotearoa does not feel it needs food security policies, yet the paradox is exposed when food (and the other elements on the lowest rung on hierarchy of needs) of developed economies require an increasing share of individual / h'hold income and labor.
Thats not illustrative of food insecurity dude.
Japan has higher food inflation than NZ
China has lower food inflation, but that's because of low demand.
You make bad arguments to try and support your pre existing biases.
Japan’s food inflation has averaged about 2.8% per year since 1971. Aoteraoa’s food inflation has averaged about 5.5% per year since 1961.
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/food-inflation
Thats not illustrative of food insecurity dude
The research is indicative of food security. Argue with the methodology and data.
I'm arguing with how you're presenting it and for what conclusion. We don't need a food security policy because food scarcity isn't a significant risk for NZ. If the world goes upsie daisy, within 5-10 years we can produce all the various food types in your food security document, internally. That's not an option for Japan, Singapore China, etc.
Vietnam are technically capable of feeding themselves. Because they were in wars on and off for decades, their food supply got interrupted and their population suffered from chronic hunger. Hence, they also have a need for a food security policy.
NZ hasn't had a recorded starvation event. 10s of millions of people in East/SE Asia died from starvation in the same period. You can understand why the the need for such policy is greater in one area than another, right?
Can I encourage most of us to read Lynda Moore's piece, it's excellent in my opinion.
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/137234/lynda-moore-says-pur…
I’m not sure Aussie is the same. We’ve got a lot of slack in our economy, theirs is starting to smell very overheated to me. Wouldn’t be surprised if their first recession in decades is on the cards.
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