Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ have cut rates in a wide range of popular TD terms.. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RECORD MEDIAN PRICE DROP
There have been substantial drops in Barfoot's average and median selling prices in February. The realtor says falling house prices are attracting buyers who were previously priced out of the market. Their sales volumes in February were good, but it is low end properties that are selling. They only sold 6 properties over $3 mln and only 24 in the $2-3 mln range, both unusually low levels. Their -$96,000 median price fall in February from January is the largest drop they have ever recorded.
CHINESE-OWNED PROPRTY DEVELOPER REACHES END OF THE ROAD
Meanwhile, the owner and developer of Auckland's Seascape residential tower is in receivership. Calibre Partners have been appointed receivers of this 52 storey apartment tower development. The receivers have also been appointed to a related company, Shundi Tamaki Village, the site of the former Auckland University campus in Glen Innes.
A SHARP SHIFT BACK TO LONGER FIXED HOME LOAN TERMS
Latest Reserve Bank figures show that in two months after the RBNZ effectively declared there would be no more interest rate cuts, the amount of money on fixed mortgage rates for longer than a two year duration increased by over $10 bln.
SENTIMENT TURNS AS THE YOUNG SHUN HOUSING FOR INVESTMENT
ASB is reporting a shift in investment sentiment as traditional property investments lose ground to KiwiSaver and managed funds. Overall investor confidence lifted marginally in Q4-2025 according to their survey. A generational divide is apparent with the over 60s holding steady in their belief that your own home is still the best investment, which is unsurprising. Gen Z on the other hand believe the best returns currently lie in investing in shares of publicly listed companies, signaling the rise of the DIY investor as an accessible path to growing wealth.
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
UP RECENTLY, NARROWING THE YEAR-ON-YEAR LOSS
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose +4.2%in February from January to be -1..1% lower than year-ago levels. The same commodities on NZD are down -4.3% from a year ago. Rising geopolitical tension throughout January and February likely contributed to higher commodity prices across several categories. Dairy prices increased +7.8% in the month, continuing the rebound that began in January.
IMPROVING TERMS OF TRADE
Our terms of trade (on a price basis) rose +7.8% in the December quarter from the same period a year ago. For goods exports, they were up +11.3% and for goods imports, up +3.2%. But for services, we slipped back -0.5%.
AN UPDATE OF WHAT WE PAY/COLLECT FOR IP USE
Of note, we collected -$40 mln less for the use of intellectual property services, down to $428 mln in Q4-2025. But we paid $500 mln for the use of intellectual property services, up +$30 mln. (It surprised us that this 'trade' was so close to balance.)
McEWEN CONVICTED & BANNED
Former financial advisor David McEwen has been convicted of four charges of breaching an FMA Stop Order. He has been banned from being a director or promoter, or involved in the management, of a company in New Zealand and for providing financial advice services for 7 years.
THE AVERAGE KIWISAVER FUND MANAGER ISN'T WORTH MUCH - THE BIG PICTURE ISN'T PRETTY
The RBNZ released its KiwiSaver valuation today as at December 2025, at $143 bln. That is +11.9% higher than a year ago, a rise of +$15.2 bln. But in Q4, the rise was only +$2.3 bln. However IRD data shows member contributions in Q4 were $2.4 bln, so fund managers lost their members -$100 mln in the quarter. For the full year to December, KiwiSaver fund managers made just +$4.3 bln after member contributions, equivalent to just a +3.3% return on the starting balances. You can actually do better with a one year term deposit !! (In the same year the NZ Super Fund earned +14.2%.)
NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.7% so far today. That leaves it unchanged over the past five working days, up +3.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.1% so far today. Briscoes, EBOS, Summerset and Ryman lift among the limited gainers as Tourism Holdings, Fletcher, Infratil and Napier Port weigh on this down market.
SET UP WITH MORE COSTS THAN REVENUES
Jarden analysts have put a 'sell' recommendation on Air New Zealand stock as they see the national carrier making a pre-tax loss for the current financial year of -$134 mln and another in 2027.
VISA'S NZ MARKETING ARM LIFTS "PROFIT"
Visa Worldwide (New Zealand) Ltd has posted September year profit of just over $10 mln, up from just over $9 mln the previous year. Revenue was $119.6 mln v $102.8 mln. The company provides marketing support services in NZ and software development support services for the Visa Group. Its immediate parent entity is Singapore's Visa Worldwide Pte. Ltd, where the majority of revenue the Visa Group generates in NZ is booked. The Australia-based Cameron Wilson replaced Anthony Watson as one of Visa Worldwide NZ's two directors last month.
MORE POSITIVE THAN EXPECTED
Australia reported that its economic activity rose +2.6% in Q4-2025, compared to the same period in 2024. Analysts had expected it to rise +2.2% on that basis, so it was a very positive outcome. GDP per capita increased for the fourth consecutive quarter and is now +0.9% higher than a year ago, the highest year-on-year growth since December 2022. For the full 2025, this is +2.0% (real) higher than calendar 2024. Compensation of employees rose +6.5% in the year. The household saving to income ratio increased to 6.9%, up from 6.1% in the September quarter. This ratio is now at its highest level since the September quarter 2022. All this data is 'real' after inflation.
SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are probably rising again today as risk premiums rise. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.48% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.75% after yesterday's big rise. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.11% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.44%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Monday rate up +4 bps at 4.39%. The UST 10yr yield is up +8 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.04%. All eyes remain on the US credit spreads which are rising on top of this.
EQUITIES IN HARD RETREAT
Global equity markets are still pivoting lower on war and subsequent stagflation risks. The local equity market has fallen -0.9% in Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is down -1.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Wednesday down another -2.7% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down a lesser -1.5% and Shanghai is down -1.0%. Singapore is down -1.7%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.9%.
OIL RISES AGAIN
American oil prices are up another +$3 at just under US$75/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$82/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been few trades today on the secondary market, and the price is unchanged at $47/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FALLS
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen from this time yesterday, down -US$167/oz and now at US$5175/oz. Silver is down -US$3.50 at just under US$84.50/oz.
NZD FALLS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down just -70 bps from this this time yesterday against the USD, now at just under 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 65 and down -50 bps from this morning.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$68,448 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at +/- 1.9%.
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7 Comments
If the US has neutralised the Iranian navy, and if they can put a protective umbrella over the strait and then organise escorted convoys through them, there is no reason as to why oil supply shipping cannot resume from non Iranian producers in the Gulf and if all of that has a happy landing then an international oil shock might well be averted. As a matter of interest and suggestive of Iranian attack capacity diminishing, flight radar now displays Emirates flights recommencing at Dubai International albeit at a much reduced rate.
probably cargo
There was an A380 Sydney bound. UAE414 now just sth west of Indonesia. Plane spotters agogo!
US embassies, consulates hit by Iran as thousands of Americans are trapped in Mideast
Choose your sauce carefully, Foxy.
Note the two faked 'pilot' clips. Standard stuff (we have no idea how much propaganda emanates from 'our' side).
My take is that 90 million people (with the obvious exception of those expats who were Shah-privileged and want their status back) are fairly cohesive in their hatred of the 'west'. Unsurprising, given our treatment of them (CIA comes to mind but resource rape generally). And it takes at least two - sometimes more, expensive, complex and not plentiful defense missiles to take out a cobbled-together drone. Of which there are thousands, and the control is dissipated. So it's asymmetrical warfare, which the US has lost every time since Korea.
We'll see, you may be right. But my money is not on the US 'coming out on top'. At best, another layer of complexity (defense of Hormuz is exactly airport queues ever since 9/11) made permanent. The Roman Empire crumbled thus; the effort needed to defend outweighed the return.
South Korea's KOSPI all over the shop. Circuit breaker triggered after the mkt fell up to 12%. The KOSPI has doubled since last August and has already corrected 17% from Friday's high. This is like the radical end of crypto.
South Korea's market is retail-dominated. It is estimated that up to 70% of its trading is retail, compared to about 20% for the NYSE. For years, South Korea was the world's largest equity options market by contract volume, even larger than the U.S., despite it being a mid-sized economy.
This is what retail-dominated markets can do. They don't rally, they double. They don't correct, they crash.
South Korea imports 94% of its oil, with 75% coming from the Middle East. So, it is easy to see why its "degens" are panicking.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/04/asia-markets-hang-seng-index-kospi-nikk…
even big four aussie banks puking a bit today
Australia's economy is growing at an annual rate of 2.6%, which is much stronger than expected.
Cynical Matt Barrie comments:
"2.6% growth with 11% currency debasement.. winning"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-04/december-quarter-gdp-2025-austra…
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