Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank raised its all its fixed rates today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has raised most TD rates, but has ended its 4% one year rate, reverting to 3.65%. In the savings account space, BNZ raised its RapidSave account interest rate by +30 bps to 1.30%.
STAGFLATION IS HERE
ANZ's latest Business Outlook Survey shows overall confidence is now close to its record lows. Firms are increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for activity and profitability; cost and inflation pressures remain high; profit expectations have sagged to low levels similar to those seen after the GFC.
INVESTORS FACE DECLINING DEMAND FOR RENTALS
Trade Me Property says the supply of rental properties is increasing while demand from tenants is declining. They point out the number of rental properties advertised on their service hit all-time high in May.
'TIDE TURNING AGAINST HOUSING'
The RBNZ has been looking at our housing market in some detail. They are now saying the tide 'may well have turned against housing as a one-way bet'. RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says there are reasons to think that some of the core market fundamentals that determine sustainable house prices may also be changing.
HOUSING LENDING SLOWS
Confirming all these "housing slowdown" views, the RBNZ C5 May update of changes to the banks mortgage books reveals that they grew just +$1.1 bln from April, and that is the slowest rise since September 2018 if you look past some pandemic lockdown months. It was up +$21.8 bln in the year however.
BUSINESS LENDING RISES FAST
Meanwhile the same RBNZ data release (C5) shows that lending to non-farm businesses was up +$10.6 bln in the year to May, the most ever recorded.
SAVING MORE & IN TDs
Households ran their transaction account balances down by -$1 bln in May from April. And they took -$306 mln out of their savings account balances. But they put +$1.5 bln more into term deposit balances, so the sum of all household bank deposits hit $220 bln for the first time ever, up +7.9% in a year and the fastest rise in 14 months since the pandemic uncertainty induced a conservative mood shift in household savers.
DEMOGRAPHIC OBSERVATION
Apropos of nothing, and only because I stumbled on the data after reading about the same issue in the Australian 2021 Census results, our demographics are different to the Aussies. They have 21.5% of their population as Millennials and Boomers, equal for the first time ever (as Millennials rise and Boomers fall). But in New Zealand, Millennials have always had a much larger share of our population, currently at 22.5% here. Gen-Xers make up 20.0% (and falling), while Boomers make up 19.2% and rising. If Millennials and Gen-Xers only voted, they could change the world. The one thing Boomers do that the others don't, is vote.
NO HOLDING BACK
In Australia, CBA, Australia’s largest bank (and parent of ASB), has hiked fixed rates for customers by +1.4% ahead of next Tuesday's RBA rate review, as analysts say larger hikes are on the way for homeowners there. CBA no longer has any comparison fixed rates lower than 5% now.
PANDEMIC SPREAD RISING WITH FLU
The Government says with hospitals under Winter pressures from flu and Covid and numbers starting to creep up again, a set of additional measures are being put in place to help reduce the Covid spread, mainly focused on children under 12 yrs.
STEPPING BACK
Fonterra's sell-down of its 100% ownership in the Global Dairy Trade platform to 33% by bringing in two exchange partners (The NZX and a European one) has now satisfied all the regulatory and shareholder approvals, and the change is now in place.
REVISED BOARD
The Government is making changes to the RBNZ board of directors. Details are here.
ONLY A THIRD RELATE TO COVID
Southern Cross Travel Insurance says Omicron has caused travelers to cancel trips and delay their travel plans, resulting in a steady flow of related claims. They say Covid-19 claims have made up 32% of the total claims received across its international and domestic policies in New Zealand. The average amount paid per claim is sitting at $1,943. Interestingly, the average claim paid for domestic travel sits at $2,164 while international claims average $1,884.
IMPROVING POST LOCKDOWN
China was expecting its factory PMI to expand in June after contracting in the prior three months - and it did. But only just and by less than expected. The sudden shift in their services PMI from contraction to expansion was more impressive however. But these are the official data. We should wait for the private surveys before getting too carried away. And all countries got a bounce after lockdowns, bounces that have been hard to sustain.
SWAP RATES SOFT
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet but they may have slipped today to end the month on a soft note. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +4 bps at 2.86% today (and a new three year high). The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.69% and down -7 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 2.84% and -1 bp lower. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 3.88%, down -9 bps and still lower than the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond which was down -6 bps to 3.89%. The UST 10 year is now at 3.10% and down -7 bps from this time yesterday.
EQUITY PRICES QUITE MIXED
On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Wednesday session little-changed. Tokyo has opened down -0.9% in late morning trade. However, Hong Kong is up +0.3% in its Thursday session and Shanghai is up +1.1% in their opening trade. The ASX200 is down -0.8% in mid afternoon trade. The NZX50 is little-changed in late trade.
GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$2 from this time yesterday at US$1820/oz.
NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -¾c from this time yesterday at 62.2 USc although most of that happened last night. We are now at our lowest since the 2020 lockdown period. Against the AUD we have slipped marginally to 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 59.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now just under 70.4. Against the USD, we have devalued for the past three months and are now +6.4% lower than at the start of 2022. On the RBNZ's TWI-15 basis we are only -2.2% lower however.
BITCOIN SLIPS SLIGHTLY
Bitcoin is now at US$20,054 and down another -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%.
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102 Comments
If Millennials and Gen-Xers only voted, they could change the world. The one thing Boomers do that the others don't, is vote.
What sort of change are we talking here? The older I get the less confidence I have in voting as a mechanism for achieving anything. Real change could be effected not by changing governments but by changing the mechanics of our economic system. Turning off the money printer. Ending central banking. Returning to hard money. Only then will we see people prosper and real positive change occur.
Ending central banking. Returning to hard money. Only then will we see people prosper and real positive change occur.
Not a reference to the ol' rat poison is it JR?
On that note, the SEC turned down Grayscale's proposed spot ETF for BTC today. Within an hour, Grayscale launched a lawsuit against the SEC.
The gloves are off.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-rejects-grayscales-spot-bitco…
"Returning to hard money" - why would we? Contrary to popular belief fiat is doing great, only 7% inflation this year in NZD, compared to about 50% in Bitcoin. Look at the last 10 years or more and money has never been so stable I reckon.
Not sure what you're talking about. BTC can be described as 'deflationary' as new supply halves every 4 years and the total supply can never change.
If Millennials and Gen-Xers only voted, they could change the world. The one thing Boomers do that the others don't, is vote.
What an obnoxious, simplistic, statement. Younger voters turned out in record numbers to elect a Labor government that then proceeded to turn its back on those same voters, and implemented none of the policies they campaigned on.
You seem to ignore the influence and power that comes from lobby groups, a media landscape that caters to the needs of wealthy corporations over the wellbeing of the nation, shifting the overton window of what is considered viable policy. But, no, lets ignore all of that and just blame the young people for not voting enough.
Labour has actually delivered on a lot of its promises to young voters:
• house prices going down - check
• rents going down - check
• taxes on greedy landlords - check
• subsidies for EVs - check
• investment in health and education - check
• investment in apprenticeships - check
• investment in public transport - check.
We don’t need a bunch of boomers on here telling us Labour hasn’t done what we expected they would because they have. Part of the problem is boomers like to make out young people are being disadvantaged by policies that help them.
house prices going down - check
Coming down, having nearly doubled since first getting elected.
Millennials and Gen-xers have access to independent mass communication like no other generation before. There's absolutely no reason there couldnt be a policy based "party" who's policies were ranked in importance by its supporters, and whatever share of the vote they get dictates how many policies they manage to get enacted into parliament.
As pure a democratic movement as you could imagine. Instead no one can agree on anything, and it's easier to claim the system is rigged so why bother. No existing party is going to act in young people's best interest, because they still have to appease their traditional bases.
The boomers have everyone under them over a barrel and the tide could be turned fairly quickly.
We don't have democracy anymore. We have bread and circuses. Elections are political theater. The dominant institution in today's society is no longer the state, it's capital, and capital is very highly concentrated in the hands of a few.
Unfortunately, pointing this out will normally get you labelled a conspiracy theorist of some sort.
If democracy was established by the Greeks and adopted by the Romans then, since then it has become diluted into a performance nothing short of milksop if to go by the puerile, staged, circuitous and non productive debates that take place in our parliament. In those old days, in the Consul Cicero for example, you lived and died, by the skill of your oratory. NZ used to have that, to a degree. The like of Kirk, Muldoon, Lange and many MPs, Trevor De Cleene for instance, as well. Nothing like that now. Apart from a few, Dr Reti is one, mostly accusatory bitching that ends up meaning less than nothing.
Just moved from an email from Politically Correct <info@comms.stuff.co.nz> that reveals the way Gen-X have different priorities. The caption on the first news item: "MP Shanan Halbert accepts a petition from Auckland students wanting funding for gender neutral bathrooms nationwide."
God yes that would be brilliant. Separate bathrooms is just bloody reduculous waste, there has got to be better ways. As a male I do have to admit it may mean giving up the privileged position of having comparatively short ques due to our use of urinals. But otherwise yes bloody good idea.
If millenials and gen x era would vote they could change the world, if indeed, less moaning and more doing required . Both need to learn to participate in the democracy or lose it . Government appointing new reserve bank board members, was this due or are we unsatisfied with existing members . NZ dollar falling, no surprises there , only economy is housing ponzi and that's not looking so good at the moment and milk powder mostly dependent on one customer who's always grumpy about something.
"less moaning and more doing required" - sounds like a cop out. At that age people don't understand the need to vote, life is all about parties and shagging and all the fun stuff. When you get old you have nothing better to do. Its been like this forever, I'm sure it was in your day too. However the millenials might be different as they are not doing the partying and shagging apparently.
True.
Voting isnt important til you are old enuf to own bunch of expensive stuff (that you dont want people to steal or deflate in value), have kids that need educating, earn enough to want to pay less tax or your body starts to fail and needs healthcare...
before that you are too busy trying to make kids, get some money to buy some expensive stuff and earn enough to make tax an issue - and doing your best to make your body fail faster...
its kind of a cool process.
I thought young Kiwi voters were lured to the polling booths by the cannabis referendum during the 2020 election. They did help bring more Green and Labour MPs into Parliament.
How is that faring for the country, particularly for our youth? The Labour caucus is in complete denial on how unlivable NZ has become for Kiwis in their 20s. Their elected overlords are pinning the entire blame the mass exodus warnings on pent-up demand for OE during Covid.
Meanwhile, Drug use among older adults a 'hidden epidemic'
The referendum was something of an own goal. If it hadn’t occurred the Greens would have been in a perfect position to lobby/pressure the Labour government to achieve reform/relaxation aligned with their policy. But it wasn’t to be, the result of the referendum completely stymied that opportunity.
Ah, as one who was fortunate enough to have grown up in the 60 - drugs and sex and rock'n roll - that wonderful window of opportunity between the advent of The Pill and dope and the advent of AIDS, I am not sure where you get your information from. Unless you are just another sad Boomer hater. Poor bastard.
My comment was somewhat tongue in cheek, but it's pretty clear the older generations largely voted against, and the young largely voted for. 70% of 18-29 year-olds voted for, 70% of over 65s voted against. If you were one of the 30% of (presumably?) 65+ voting for, then good on you and I wish you'd convinced more of your peers.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/16-11-2020/new-zealands-cannabis-refe…
While a lot of it has been rising interest rates, I think people are failing to thank Labour for this. Yes it took a while to deliver, yes it took a while to take effect, but Labour have done a lot in terms of tax and supply, the main things they had control over. Some of the changes have been absolutely unheard of: taxing all rents was a sledgehammer, increase in brightline is almost a capital gains tax, and the council can't say no to almost anything 3 stories or less which is very unusual in the western world.
First of all the removing of interest was fair. Up until then the govt was charging students more than the cost of that borrowing, essentially a for profit enterprise on the back of students.
Second, the national party is hardly above a good lolly scramble. It’s the entire governing philosophy - cut public services give tax cuts to the rich.
Yup. The interest was made up of a 1.9% base rate + a 5.1% adjustment rate - the latter being purely to bring it up to the same level as a bank loan.
Which was really unfair on those not-a-few students who did not qualify for Student Allowance because their parents earned more than $59,000 + $2,500 per additional child under/over/something ?18? (Figures to best of my memory, it's been 20 years since I worked as a Student Services Offer at WINZ). And this was raw - so if they were separated/divorced the child support was counted twice.
It was classic New Zealand over reaction. A high interest rate to begin with then zero interest. Fair would be a low interest rate. Any child of a wealthy family that doesn't need student loan will surely still take it at zero interest and invest it?
So in my opinion, it was a Labour lolly scramble. National definitely not above a lolly scramble either as per Simon 'where are our' Bridges promises in Northland bi election.
When Labour came to power, the average residential price was $550,000. Today it’s over $1,000,000.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/127683255/labours-lack-…
When Labour became the Government in 2017, 5,844 New Zealanders were on the emergency housing wait list.
Last week there were officially 26,868
https://waateanews.com/2022/06/06/opinion-another-housing-failure-why-1…
They've made a complete mess...
People have short memories...
Jacinda when the market was going crazy...
Asked to explain why a fall in prices would be bad, Ardern said: “What we’ve simply expressed here is that the growth that we’ve seen is unsustainable. So, if anything, it is much more sustainable to have those much smaller increases. I think people expect that you see that in the market.
“What we also accept is that for most New Zealanders, their house is their most significant asset… A significant crash in the housing market - that impacts people’s most significant asset.”
Put to her that people who invest in shares, for example, don’t always expect the value of that asset to go up, so why should it be different for housing? Ardern responded: “This gets to the heart of the issue of why so many New Zealanders turn to the housing market.”
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/108301/pm-jacinda-ardern-says-susta…
Add to that, that she was completely aware of rising property prices because she had noticed the house across the street from hers, had recently sold. Blimey! She certainly can shuffle the cards can’t she! Regret to say, this is the most flimsy mealy mouthed inconsequential PM of our nation that I can recall. That is my considered opinion, based on and dated back to, and my meeting, Mr Holland when I was quite young.
None of that was of any significant counter to interest rates being plunged to a pittance earning level, and an equivalent low borrowing level, that effectively urged investors to divest equities, securities and plunge headlong into property investment. As per the figures quoted above (nifty) undeniably reveal. Hell in less than three years property values have been virtually strapped to a rocket.
Where do I start on the promises:
- Kiwibuild, what were the big numbers promised again?
- Light rail, built by 2021? It hasn't even been confirmed yet, let alone built
- Major Unitec development announced with great fanfare in 2018? What's happened since?
- Major actions on Child poverty
- Abolishing the Rural Urban boundary in Auckland
etc etc.....
Abysmal performance on most of their promises.
The 3 storey planning stuff was never a promise, it was sprung late 2021 in kahoots with the Nats. Clever play by the Nats - Labour will get most of the electoral backlash for it! Which will be major in Central Auckland.
It may have future benefits but I guarantee it's had bugger all influence on the house price declines in the past 6 months.
Yes that was a failed promise for sure. I voted for him first time, he communicated with me about a year before he was elected on housing.
But generally speaking, he refrained from making big idealistic promises the way has Arden done (and generally failed delivering on them).
she is a Chardonnay socialist.
He campaigned that we were on the cusp of something special in NZ. That we could get rid of all natural predators in NZ. That we would close the wage gap with Australia. That house prices would become more affordable. He promised to increase exports to 40 percent of GDP.
All politicians talk big and never deliver fully.
So how do you think labour caused that? Which of their policies did that? Or was it just the independent RBNZ that caused it?
Im guessing you’re one of those National supporters who think anything bad that’s happened under labour is 100% their fault but anything good (high GDP growth, very low unemployment) is just a fluke.
Oh for sure some truth in that but on the other side of the coin did the Labour zgovernment ever express much concern as this spiral commenced and got the wind in its sails. Quite the opposite actually according to the PM, increasing property values was in the interests of New Zealanders in general and what they expected. At the same time money is being printed on a very hot press and flung around the nation like confetti. And here we are. Property more out of reach for the younger generations, mortgage cost for same not viable and inflation in the furnace.QED.
I'm sorry, you are showing your Labour apologist leanings too strongly again.
Those planning changes, flawed as they are, may have some future benefits but to suggest that they've had some impact on moderating or lowering prices over the past 12 months is patent nonsense.
The tax changes are a good thing, but probably have only had a minor influence on house price movements.
INVESTORS FACE DECLINING DEMAND FOR RENTALS
Trade Me Property says the supply of rental properties is increasing while demand from tenants is declining. They point out the number of rental properties advertised on their service hit all-time high in May.
So
- Plenty of houses for sale at cheaper prices
- plenty of houses being built and plans to have loads more
- Plenty of rentals about, getting cheaper..
In the old days before the huge crash... didnt people used to say our house prices risen so fast because of a really bad 'housing shortage'?
> In Australia, CBA, Australia’s largest bank (and parent of ASB), has hiked fixed rates for customers by +1.4% ahead of next Tuesday's RBA rate review
1.4% !?
That's... really a lot.
If Millennials and Gen-Xers only voted, they could change the world. The one thing Boomers do that the others don't, is vote.
That claim assumes the chosen candidates are representing individual voter's concerns - hardly the case in the USA: What more proof is needed that America is a dictatorship, not a democracy?
The older i get the less sceptical that democracy ever really existed anywhere.
I dont think its a 'conspiracy' either. Just that a few people with the majority of the money have always had the leverage to get politicians to do whatever they want.
We just get to choose from a couple of puppets (or muppets) every few years.. so the rich make us believe we have freedom and choice :)
Interesting that domestic claims are more costly than International -- really Nothing interesting in the fact that its cheaper for kiwis to have a 10 day holiday on the gold coast rather than 3 days in Queensland !
We have become an incredibly expensive place - and it will take a very very long time for our tourist industries to recover at current prices!
Interesting how we've gone from couching the dollar dropping in different terms. At times, the way a dropping dollar gets reported on, you'd think there was no downside to it dropping whatsoever.
Now with hyper-vigilence around living costs, it's the time to help people understand why having a higher/stable dollar is probably better for their wallets, even if it is at the expense of export receipts
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