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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; more TD rate cuts, fewer immigrants, ACC delays billing, Auckland Council under pressure, swaps fall, NZD rises, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; more TD rate cuts, fewer immigrants, ACC delays billing, Auckland Council under pressure, swaps fall, NZD rises, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut its TD rates for most of its rate card by between -5 and -20 bps. NZCU Employees has cut most of its TD rates today as well.

DOWN -40%
A total of 23,430 fewer people came into the country on work, residence or student visas in March compared to March last year. Most of the drop happened in the second half of the month, and will be far greater in April.

VANISHING INFLATION
Economists see inflation possibly dropping below the minimum target of 1% this year, but say it's going to be difficult to even accurately measure it after the disruption of the lockdown

ACC DELAYS BILLING
ACC says invoices for levies due from businesses for the 2020/21 financial year would usually have been sent from 1 July but will now be issued in October. Other invoices issued throughout the year will also be on hold for three months.

NEW WEEKLY CHARTING
The Treasury today has published its first weekly dashboard tracking the impact of the economic shock from Covid-19. It says it will provide a regular snapshot of economic conditions as they are developing.

MORE DEFERRALS
Electricity lines companies Orion, Powerco, Vector and Wellington Electricity serve 60% of New Zealand’s electricity customers. The group has worked together to provide network payment deferral programs to business customers on their networks.

GUIDANCE FOR DEBTORS
The Commerce Commission has released "guidance for borrowers" who may need assistance when dealing with lenders. It is guidance that ensures that obligations by lenders under responsible lending rules, and the CCCFA law are clearly understood by borrowers, especially those in financial stress.

HARD CHOICES
Our largest Council is under increasing financial stress. Its ability to deliver a balanced budget and comply with its debt-to-revenue ratio policy are going to involve some very tough choices.

DEPOSIT INSURANCE NOT URGENT
The Finance Minister says finalising the design of a deposit insurance scheme "is a priority", but there's no plan for it to be set up before 2023.

HYDRO LAKES NORMAL
Although the north and east are still very dry, our hydro lakes are about at normal capacity for this time of year, even if recent inflows have been slightly light.

LOCAL UPDATE
There are now 1409 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another +8 new cases today and less than the +15 increase yesterday. The number of clusters is still at 16. Eleven people have died here now, up 2 from yesterday and both in the same cluster. There are now 14 people in hospital with the disease today, with three in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up to 58% and rising.

GLOBAL UPDATE
Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 2,157,100 and up +94,000 from this time yesterday. 31% of all cases globally are in the US and they are up +32,000 in one day to 670,200. The American recovery rate is just over 8%. The American death data reached a record high today. China claims its recovery rate is stable at 94%. Australia now has over 6400 cases, and haven't changed in four days now. Australia's recovery rate is 36%, also little unchanged. Reported global deaths now exceed 144,000.

EQUITY UPDATE
Wall Street ended with a minor rise today (S&P500 up +0.6%). But Asian markets have started firmly higher with Shanghai up +0.7%, Hong Kong up +2.4% and Tokyo uo +2.6%. In later trade, the ASX200 is +2.2% and the NZX50 Capital Index is up an impressive +3.1%, no doubt powered by the very optimistic virus report in New Zealand today. Other markets are all benefiting from widening plans to restart economies.

A HARD FALL & PARTIAL RECOVERY
China's Q1 GDP fell -6.8% from the same quarter a year ago. That was worse than the -6.0% markets were expecting. And it is a huge reversal of the +6.0% rise in Q4-2019. It is the first solid indication of the sort of shift other countries can expect when they report their Q2-2020 economic 'growth' data. China's retail sales fell by -16% in March, less than the -21% fall in February but online food sales actually rose +10%. Their electricity production was down -4.6% in March and less than the -8% decline in February. Industrial production crashed almost -14% in February but actually bounced back to be just -1% lower in March. While that data may seem dubious, it is probably dangerous to think all of China suffered as Hubei Province did. Hubei only makes up about 5% of China's overall GDP.

SWAP RATES SINK FURTHER
Yesterday, swap rates plumbed new lows for all durations except the ten year. The two year was down -3 bps to just 0.38%, the five year was down -5 bps to just 0.53%, and the ten year was down -6 bps to 0.91%. We don't have wholesale swap rates movement details today yet. We will update this later in the day if they show a significant change. They probably fell again; everything else has. The 90-day bank bill rate is down another -3 bps at 0.39%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +2 bps at 0.87%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.54%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also up +2 bps at 0.96%. The UST 10yr is up+4 bps today to just under 0.68% after the US Fed stepped in to rescue SME loan and forgiveness programs.

NZ DOLLAR RECOVERS
The Kiwi dollar has recovered some of yesterday's drop to be now at 60.2 USc and a +½c rise in a day. Against the Aussie we are softer again at 94.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -¼c to 54.4 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 66.3.

BITCOIN UP TOO
The price of Bitcoin is up from this time yesterday at US$7,095, a good rise of +6.8%. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart (including bitcoin) is here.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

94 Comments

NZX back over 10500. Being nicely pumped up with taxpayer money.

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Or maybe newbies just opening trading accounts and buying everything looking at last years earnings etc.
It will be a miracle if this keeps going for another week.
I am picking another big drop cleaning out all recent buyers just look at the history of most bear markets very risky right now.

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Neither ............ Its a bear market rally , and it wont last.

More likely to be a dead cat bounce

Likely 2 ( or more ) things have triggered this , first a case of euphoria with America outlining a PLAN OF ACTION giving some optimism to a market devoid of any good news

The second is that March short sellers have to make good on their short positions and have entered the market to cover them , thus leading to action where there was none

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Those investors who bought ahead of the rally, a mere 3 or 4 weeks ago, have obviously made an absolute killing. Good for them..

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This is greed at its best or as Warren Buffet would say
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

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Yes some of these share prices can only be interpreted as Covid 19 completely eliminated worldwide in the next 2 weeks, then business just the same as 2 months ago.

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Haha hardly. If they were you wouldn't find companies at one quarter or one third previous values.plenty of upside left I'd say

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Could it be that submissions to the Crown Infrastructure Fund (shovel ready projects which can show public benefit) closed on 14 April? Billions of dollars will be allocated for infrastructure/construction projects and jobs will follow. The next stimulus. Some of those projects we've been waiting for may now happen.

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Yeah our market is in big time denial. I expect it from the US market (dominated by HFT), but our market? Some weird shit going on.

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Wow head firmly lodged up his ass. Our local council still wants to have a rates increase of 3.3% even though local business has been decimated. Even had a person on the council say they won't be taking a pay cut. According to him, they're a very hard working team and the most important contributors to the local economy. Arrogance personified

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They should do an experiment, sack the guy, see what his skills are worth in the private sector, then adjust all council ceo's pay accordingly.

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Wow head firmly lodged up his ass

Truly dreadful human and awful leader

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Yuck. So much greeeeed

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Clearly these executives are more valuable than Dr Bloomfield who has taken a pay cut. If they want to know what working hard in a responsible job is then they can deputise for the hospital cleaners who are the highest risk for covid-19. I'm sure they would adapt to shift work.

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Should be pushing for a pay rise if working harder than ever? Or perhaps a pay cut after all this when he returns to the normal daily cruise.

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Ironically, my first thought was that he has no morals. He also claims they are busier than ever - unlikely. The crew running the wastewater treatment plant probably are, and the rubbish collectors. The managers are probably all huddled around the coffee machine tell each other how busy they are.

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Unbelievable. This virus is doing a great job shining the spot light on peoples attitudes & behaviours. We suspect the beauracrats have this narcissistic view of the world & their position within however always tricky to prove. This jackass has done that well. A friend of mine used to joke how cruisy work was as a council planner in Wellington. These outfits should be the focus of the publics rage when they drive cities broke while continuing to pay themselves first.

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Yes The Warehouse amongst others in the real world have announced pay cuts for everyone earning over 50,000. There are over 100,000 council employees, teachers etc earning well over 50,000 that will roll thru this completely unaffected, funded by tax payers.

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I continue to hear the rallying cry that Capitalism and the Free Market is dead or needs a rethink , now its our French friend Monsieur Macaroni , chipping in .

I wonder what he thinks will replace it ?

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Sacre Bleu! Working for 40 hours a week? Non, non... Vive la Revolution!

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The French have long understood, at the top at least, that the post Bretton-Woods epoch is in trouble.

Your comment is classic - shoot the messenger to shoot the unwelcome message; I've see/heard it a thousand times. It doesn't matter if he has an alternative, and maybe there isn't one. That doesn't make his statement untrue.

Look at the date on this : https://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/hard-times-here-stay

Don't say you weren't warned in goodly time.... :)

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Macron is an international finance poster child for neo-liberalsim. His own people hate him. He couldn't get rid of the Gilets Jaunes. He was saved by a virus that gave him the excuse to declare mandatory social distancing. His declaration of the end of capitalism is not a clear minded assessment of the facts. What he and you describe as capitalism is the crumbling order of private finance that foists debt upon developed countries and conflates it with GDP growth. Yes, this system has come to an end, but it has nothing to do with capitalism and everything to do with government enabled banker looting of the productive capacity of populations around the world. It's not capitalism. It's financial pillage. Capitalism creates actual products to meet actual demand. Financial pillage enslaves through the creation of interest generating debt instruments.

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When historians assess how countries approached the coronavirus pandemic, New Zealand is sure to stand out.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/australianz/this-country-says-its-on-…

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Will we be back to sq.1 in a couple of years and do the whole lock-up thing again?

Collignon questions whether New Zealand's eradication strategy is realistic.

"The reality is this virus is everywhere, it's all around the world," he said. "So even if you're successful for a short period of time, how long do you do this for? Six months? Two years? Invariably, you're going to get the virus re-introduced."

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Gosh. That sounds like somebody using logic and reason instead of riding a wave of nauseating virtue signalling.

That's not how we roll in New Zealand.

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So we follow the rest of the world like sheep when we have an alternative root?
No sorry we do not. Time is money and money is time. Controlling this gives us time and money to be able to deal with it more effectively and with better knowledge at a later date.
Your logic calculator is a long way out of wack.

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There is a remote possibility that NZ ends up as the only developed country in the world where people are not wearing face masks in public - where teenagers in love only have to worry about STD's - where we greet strangers with handshake, kiss on cheek, hongi. I wonder how valuable that would be?

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Or a country that can carry on buisness as normal. Pack up your machines and put them on a ship to NZ, they have staff that can work freely.

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An alternative root. Saucy.

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Tinder without masks.

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Once you get the mandatory vaccination and the microchip - you'll be let out of your cage and can participate in the new Great Society they have planned for you.

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Sounds like sci fi...

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Well that's what's happening in Australia... trying to get buy in from the people for the c19 tracker app. At this stage it's voluntary.

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We already tag all the livestock.
Have to.

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Not all livestock..remember movis...

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I guess if an effective test is available with very fast results it may be part of the boarding procedure to get onto a plane to come here. As you say if we cant keep it out our eradication strategy is somewhat pointless.

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Bollocks. Keeping it out buys us time.
Time to do research on how to treat thos and find a cure or the ability to to treat it with better outcomes.

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Failing effective treatment or a vaccine, if exposure does grant a level of resistance / immunity, then if worst comes to worst we can roll out a programme of deliberately infecting people with low doses.

Under such a controlled infection programme, people will know they have the disease and know they need to self-isolate and can be supported through it. We need to get to 60%+ with resistance for effective herd immunity, so this approach would allow us to spare vulnerable / older people while infecting those who can deal with it, and throttle the infection rate to one that our hospitals can keep up with if needed.

This is something that you can only do with the luxury of time and planning, and lots of research to be sure it's safe.

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Yes roll it town by town through NZ at our own leasure. Why stress the whole country out at one time...

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Are you serious ....?

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You need to follow the conversation from the start.

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You are most likely correct but
A/ there will be a lot more medical information out there to know how to save lives.
B/ a hell of a lot of respiratory incubators available for cheap.
C/ time to get ready.
D/ a chance that an anti virus is found.
E/ for NZ to become a global safe haven and profit from that.
F/ if second and third and even 4th waves hit we escape those.

Your problem is?

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12-18 months is the timeline. Do you think the economy can wait that long?
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2762690

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Why do you think the economy is 'waiting'?

It's likely we'll be moving to level 3 next week and level 2 within 2 months. We're going into recession, but it's not like the economy is going into meltdown.

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Trust me if it takes 2 months to get to Level 2 it WILL be meltdown

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You can't be serious? At this rate, we are skipping recession straight to depression. A decline in GDP of 10% can be described as such no?

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The economy can either go to hell the way it is or go to hell with people dieing.
Your call and your job and your political parties future depends on it.
Times up make your call. There is only one call that makes sense.

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Back to business with social controls in place as practical. There's no way we should run up a tab for future generations to pay just so the generations that left the economy so fragile can feel safe.

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now it's starting to hit the fan
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinese-gdp

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Thanks for that.
The MSM narrative is that China got on top of this, will recover quickly, and the rest of us will benefit from that.
This strongly questions that narrative.
I'm still curious to see whether we will see Chinese nationals exiting the NZ housing / speculative land market en masse to repatriate funds to save themselves back home.
Starting to see quite a few mid to large sized sites, with consents, owned by Chinese and up for sale. eg. in Albany, Flatbush, Hobsonville

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Fritz, problem in China now is that most exporters there have no purchase orders to produce for.
As rest of world in lock down.
This week and last those exporters have been putting workers off.

The CCP will be checking their sources of protein.

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Sounds like they have a secure source for now, unemployed workers.

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If you trust Chinese statistics checkout https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and toggle 'now' and 'yesterday'. Apparently yesterday China had 1,107 active cases and no deaths but today it is 116 active cases but 1,290 deaths.

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Bring back made in NZ. My mask is Cactus...made in NZ. I already go out of my way to avoid all things made in China..including our food packed there.

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Interesting thought as to how many consumers in the west will consciously seek to avoid buying products made in China.
I will be.
Please up-vote this comment if you will be making that conscious decision.

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No underpants for you

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Fritz is Scottish...

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Ha ha, more good banter.

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Ha ha!
I will scrutinise. Some may be made in SE Asia?
It may be impossible to avoid MIC, but easy to minimize.
From what I can see, quite a few clothes are made outside China now.

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I hear possum fur is comfortable

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Even better if the possum is not alive.

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Yesterday, swap rates plumbed new lows for all durations except the ten year.

Not hard to guess the rentier financial institutions are front running the RBNZ's LSAP programme by receiving fixed on IR swaps or the market markers are pulling bids anticipating such actions.

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Yep in Wuhan, where the virus emerged, has revised its death toll up by 1,290 to 3,869 - an increase of 50%. China has reported its worst economic performance in decades as the impact of the virus hits. GDP figures for the first quarter of 2020 show its economy shrank 6.8%
More info here: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52319956

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Hahaha.....REA's are 'STILL' listing as Price By Negotiation. They really cannot accept their new reality can they? The games up sorry, drop the real asking price by 25%+ or have a very long commission free dry-spell for the next two or three years.

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Yes that new reality is going to hit and it's going to hit hard.

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Well, OneRoof yesterday was talking up a resurgent market post-lockdown.
F$%*en joke, that publication! Lowest of the low.

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Oneroof sent me a questionnaire yesterday. I scored it a yes I plan to buy a house soon but the biggest factor effecting my buying will be value for money due to a decreasing property market value.

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Yes and when they actually sell lower than what they were telling you it was worth they submit a 'TBC' notation on homes.co website and leave it like that for at least 6 months until no one is looking lol

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Anger needs a scapegoat. How much is out there?
Ardern being sued for ""The Prime Minister made the wrong decision … all for her political gain", he said."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12325702

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This would have settled it.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/04/attorney-general-s-deci…

Austin Powers?

Crown lawyer Austin Powell, who was virtually representing Ardern, said there were significant limits on the freedom of movement for everyone, but the restrictions did not amount to detention.

He said there were no limitations to stay a specific distance from one's home or requirements to report on movements.

(Because other people are/were instructed to do the reporting).

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This was always going to happen since the lockdown is unlawful.

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A timely reminder that simplistic, hectoring public restrictions don't stack up at all well scientifically, from, of all places, fish ecology.....

What we need to make our public areas safe isn’t just an endless parade of hand sanitizer and spaced-out floor dots, but also an intensive drive to modify our day-to-day environments through improved air flow and purification. During spring and summer, we can rely somewhat on open windows (to repeat: at both ends of a room, if at all possible). But when the next wave hits in the Fall, the weather will be colder and that old-school fix will no longer be practical. So we need to start finding mechanical solutions now. Thankfully, our economy is now bursting with all sorts of unused contracting capacity. And I can’t think of a more useful and morally justifiable way to get people back to work. The more work we do on our physical environment, the less distortion will be imposed on our ecology.
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People in NZ with China passports (some?) have been receiving face masks from the local (within NZ) Chinense Consulate General offices.

Q: any one know how wide spread this is?

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Deposit Insurance "NOT URGENT "

WTF ?

If its not of absolute urgency right now , then it never will be .

The likelihood of a run on at least one bank or deposit taker is the highest its ever been since 1929

SMFH

Its astonishing that people have not taken steps to withdraw their savings from the banks .............its possible many people dont understand the risks the banks are facing, with a likely tsunami of non-performing loans looming in the next 12 weeks .

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But what will they do with them?
Cash? And the legal tender gets changed and today's note are worthless?
Buy a 'guaranteed' asset?
Gold? ( Have you seen the margins to buy and sell!)
What do they do with them?

Bear Sterns was a big example to all Central banks as to what happens if they allow anything resembling systemic failure. Lehmann was the answer - bailouts will come if it gets nasty. No country can survive without a currency; their own being the best one. There is no other practical choice, and 'our' banks are a safer a bet than anything else.

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Bear Stearns wasn't bailed out, it was bought by JPM initially at 2 bucks a share, revised up to 10 bucks after BS employees balked at the initial offer (a marriage brokered by the Fed.)

Lehman's did fail and was sold in parts to various banks.

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It shall be proven, even with no migrants/foreign buyers - the NZ F.I.RE economy will still flourish in positive upward trends. The price shall be maintained by the internal neolib politicians on all sides - after all? hardly you'll find any of them without a significant 'RE investment' in this country - With subsidy upon subsidy, borrow/loan upon borrow/loan, QE upon QE.. Easy to spot them, when market greed at play? the tune is always 'leave it to the market, we're not nanny state' - when fear looming? public intervention assistant is First - repeat.

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I'll guarantee you that Spain; Ireland; the UK; the USA, Japan etc etc etc ALL had politicians and bankers that 'will never allow the property market to fall' - and yet it did. I doubt New Zealand will be any different.

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The price of petrol in Aussie has dropped to under $1 per litre due to the slump in demand

The wholesale price of petrol in USA has dropped to around 4 CENTS a Litre ( 12 cents a Gallon ) due to the slump in demand .

Price of petrol in sleepy New Zealand STILL OVER $2 .00 /Litre , hardly moved a cent .

Our fuel companies are in for the rudest shock of their lives and I have no sympathy, I hope the fuel goes rotten in their tanks .

I refuse to buy fuel ( which I dont need ) until diesel is under $1 per litre

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92%, $1.81 plus 6 cents off when I drove past Mobil this morning. Z, $1.84. But I guess we don't have the Big City tax?

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Boatman, you know that over 60% of the price of petrol right now is tax, right? Even if oil was purchased for free the price at the pump cant get that much cheaper than it is now once you account for all the costs to ship, refine and distribute it.

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The govt must be losing a shitload of tax revenue from fuel sales.

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Global organizations fight back.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121079552/coronavirus…

Heres the thing...

Trump's only problem with respect to the WHO was that he had failed to take its advice and that of his own senior advisers, she says.

What is the WHO advice did Trump not take?.

Even if Helen was right, in this crisis we don't need an ex PM slagging off POTUS.

Unless it's because of Wang Yi being in Auckland now & JA asked her too.

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Yes, some people do struggle to adjust when their circumstances change.
eg. When you retire, it is a bit difficult when you first realise that you are not "the head accountant", "the experienced and respected PA", "the old school mechanic" etc.
Someone should take her aside and give her a few kind words of advice on what she should be doing now.
And the media should be ashamed of itself reporting what her opinion is.
As far as I go: I know that nobody here gives a rats ass about what I say. That's as it should be!

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A strange quiet has settled across the country. Money and markets back their same old tricks. A degree of uncertainty combined with a sense of exhaustion. The media and the markets, ever more detached from reality. Say 2+2=5 often enough, and it's true, right?

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So China is either totally incompetent or lying, or both.
Your country is a mess, X...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12325…

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Lying would be my guess.

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That lower inflation rate is concerning. We require a period of higher inflation to inflate away debt and excess wages. RBNZ should start preparation for a helicopter money program to support inflation and retail sales, even if this is as crude as returning a monthly cheque in the mail to every New Zealander until inflation is stabilised at a much higher rate.

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Helicopter money in the USA is being gobbled up by Banks to anyone in overdraft...paid off first. Same would happen here or money saved. Who would spend on retail...more chinease goods?

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Just to share why this share market going on and on

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/8824A…

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