Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut its TD rates for most of its rate card by between -5 and -20 bps. NZCU Employees has cut most of its TD rates today as well.
DOWN -40%
A total of 23,430 fewer people came into the country on work, residence or student visas in March compared to March last year. Most of the drop happened in the second half of the month, and will be far greater in April.
VANISHING INFLATION
Economists see inflation possibly dropping below the minimum target of 1% this year, but say it's going to be difficult to even accurately measure it after the disruption of the lockdown
ACC DELAYS BILLING
ACC says invoices for levies due from businesses for the 2020/21 financial year would usually have been sent from 1 July but will now be issued in October. Other invoices issued throughout the year will also be on hold for three months.
NEW WEEKLY CHARTING
The Treasury today has published its first weekly dashboard tracking the impact of the economic shock from Covid-19. It says it will provide a regular snapshot of economic conditions as they are developing.
MORE DEFERRALS
Electricity lines companies Orion, Powerco, Vector and Wellington Electricity serve 60% of New Zealand’s electricity customers. The group has worked together to provide network payment deferral programs to business customers on their networks.
GUIDANCE FOR DEBTORS
The Commerce Commission has released "guidance for borrowers" who may need assistance when dealing with lenders. It is guidance that ensures that obligations by lenders under responsible lending rules, and the CCCFA law are clearly understood by borrowers, especially those in financial stress.
HARD CHOICES
Our largest Council is under increasing financial stress. Its ability to deliver a balanced budget and comply with its debt-to-revenue ratio policy are going to involve some very tough choices.
DEPOSIT INSURANCE NOT URGENT
The Finance Minister says finalising the design of a deposit insurance scheme "is a priority", but there's no plan for it to be set up before 2023.
HYDRO LAKES NORMAL
Although the north and east are still very dry, our hydro lakes are about at normal capacity for this time of year, even if recent inflows have been slightly light.
LOCAL UPDATE
There are now 1409 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another +8 new cases today and less than the +15 increase yesterday. The number of clusters is still at 16. Eleven people have died here now, up 2 from yesterday and both in the same cluster. There are now 14 people in hospital with the disease today, with three in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up to 58% and rising.
GLOBAL UPDATE
Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 2,157,100 and up +94,000 from this time yesterday. 31% of all cases globally are in the US and they are up +32,000 in one day to 670,200. The American recovery rate is just over 8%. The American death data reached a record high today. China claims its recovery rate is stable at 94%. Australia now has over 6400 cases, and haven't changed in four days now. Australia's recovery rate is 36%, also little unchanged. Reported global deaths now exceed 144,000.
EQUITY UPDATE
Wall Street ended with a minor rise today (S&P500 up +0.6%). But Asian markets have started firmly higher with Shanghai up +0.7%, Hong Kong up +2.4% and Tokyo uo +2.6%. In later trade, the ASX200 is +2.2% and the NZX50 Capital Index is up an impressive +3.1%, no doubt powered by the very optimistic virus report in New Zealand today. Other markets are all benefiting from widening plans to restart economies.
A HARD FALL & PARTIAL RECOVERY
China's Q1 GDP fell -6.8% from the same quarter a year ago. That was worse than the -6.0% markets were expecting. And it is a huge reversal of the +6.0% rise in Q4-2019. It is the first solid indication of the sort of shift other countries can expect when they report their Q2-2020 economic 'growth' data. China's retail sales fell by -16% in March, less than the -21% fall in February but online food sales actually rose +10%. Their electricity production was down -4.6% in March and less than the -8% decline in February. Industrial production crashed almost -14% in February but actually bounced back to be just -1% lower in March. While that data may seem dubious, it is probably dangerous to think all of China suffered as Hubei Province did. Hubei only makes up about 5% of China's overall GDP.
SWAP RATES SINK FURTHER
Yesterday, swap rates plumbed new lows for all durations except the ten year. The two year was down -3 bps to just 0.38%, the five year was down -5 bps to just 0.53%, and the ten year was down -6 bps to 0.91%. We don't have wholesale swap rates movement details today yet. We will update this later in the day if they show a significant change. They probably fell again; everything else has. The 90-day bank bill rate is down another -3 bps at 0.39%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +2 bps at 0.87%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.54%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also up +2 bps at 0.96%. The UST 10yr is up+4 bps today to just under 0.68% after the US Fed stepped in to rescue SME loan and forgiveness programs.
NZ DOLLAR RECOVERS
The Kiwi dollar has recovered some of yesterday's drop to be now at 60.2 USc and a +½c rise in a day. Against the Aussie we are softer again at 94.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -¼c to 54.4 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 66.3.
BITCOIN UP TOO
The price of Bitcoin is up from this time yesterday at US$7,095, a good rise of +6.8%. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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