What happened Wednesday

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; another TD rate cut, rents under attack, RBNZ optimistic, China trade strong, swaps stay low, NZD firm, & more

6th May 20, 3:59pm by David Chaston

ID 22702269 © Daniaphoto | Dreamstime.com

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes here today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has trimmed most TD rates for terms between 3 months and 18 months.

WORST EVER
Yesterday we reported the -90% dive in new car sales. Today we can update, that used import sales also fell just as hard. Only 622 used imports were sold in April, presumable in the few days of L3 lockdown at the end of the month. That is -94% lower than the 10,883 sold in April 2019.

IRRELEVANTLY UP
QV reported its April data today, but they also dismissed its relevance because there are insufficient transactions to draw meaningful conclusions.

IRRELEVANTLY STABLE
Statistics New Zealand says unemployment edged up to 4.2% at the end of the March quarter from 4% previously. That's all irrelevant now.

RENTS UNDER ATTACK
Rents in major shopping malls are being slashed in half. The outlook is grim for owners of shopping malls and even grimmer for mum and dad investors with small suburban retail premises. Diving rents undermine valuations and pressure cash flows in the extreme, especially for recent owners.

OPTIMISTS
The RBNZ released its economic scenarios ahead of much-anticipated Monetary Policy Statement due next Wednesday. They took a more upbeat view than Treasury, but did note that even at Level 1, international tourism will be reduced to barely 10% of normal activity.

LESS IS MORE?
"Everyone knows" that using cash for transactions is dangerous in a viral pandemic. But the RBNZ has reported that there has been a huge rise in demand for banknotes. David Hargreaves tried to reconcile the two trends.

BEING SAVED BY THE CHINA TRADE
Statistics NZ is tracking our goods trade flows daily during the pandemic lockdown and comparing it to the same period a year ago. For the latest reviewed week to April 29, total exports to all countries were up +3.3% (+$38 mln), to $1.18 bln, total imports from all countries were down -28%(-$331 mln), to $834 mln, exports to China were up +20% (+$56 mln), to $333 mln, and imports from China were up +4.5% (+$10 mln), to $232 mln.

HOLDING ON
Somewhat surprisingly, dairy prices were basically unchanged at the regular auction today with WMP and SMP prices firming and butter and cheese lower. Volumes sold were near seasonal lows.

SETBACK FOR ANZ IN ROSS ASSET MANAGEMENT CASE
ANZ has failed to have a claim brought against the bank by victims of David Ross' Ross Asset Management (RAM) Ponzi scheme struck out. ANZ, which was RAM's bank, argued none of the claims were reasonably arguable, and any claims for losses suffered before 1 June 2010 had been brought too late and could not be claimed. The Court can only strike out the claim if it is so untenable that it cannot succeed. The Court declined to strike out the claim. The investors allege ANZ is liable for assisting David Ross’ breach of trust, for receiving a benefit from his breach of trust and for negligence. About 700 investors suffered losses of about $115 million when RAM was exposed as a Ponzi scheme in 2012.

LOCAL UPDATE
There are 1488 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with two new cases today, up from zero yesterday. One probable and one confirmed cases were reported. Twenty-one people have died, +1 from yesterday, almost all geriatric patients. There are just two people left in hospital with the disease (-2), and none are in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up over 88% and still rising.

AUSTRALIA UPDATE
In Australia, there are now 6849 cases (+24 since yesterday), 96 deaths (+1) and a stable recovery rate of just under 86%. 66 people are in hospital there (-4) with 27 in ICU (-1).

GLOBAL UPDATE
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 3,662,100 and up +79,600 from this time yesterday which is an unchanged level of growth. Now, just under 33% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +23,600 since this time yesterday taking the total to 1,203,900 and the only country to exceed 1 mln cases. This is a stable level of increase. US deaths now exceed 71,000. Global deaths are about to exceed 257,000. In Brazil, Russia and India there is an acceleration of infection being reported and the underlying dodgy data will build fear quickly.

HIGH CORE FUNDING RATIO
Going into the lockdown, the March bank core funding ratio was at 88.3%, higher than at any time in 2019 and near its highest (best) ever (The actual best-ever was 88.8% in April 2018.)

RISKY BEHAVIOUR
Aussie regulator ASIC's analysis of local equity markets during the COVID-19 period has revealed a substantial increase in retail activity across the securities market, as well as greater exposure to risk. "We found that some retail investors are engaging in short term trading strategies unsuccessfully attempting to time price trends." Something similar is happening in New Zealand with the NZX flooded with small transactions largely via the Sharsies platform.

SECURITISATION CASUALTIES?
Fitch Ratings has place three of five Fleet Partners NZ lease contract securitisation lines on "Outlook Negative". Who holds these types of instruments? Probably fund managers who tried to juice up their fixed income returns.

WATER STORAGE UPDATES
Hydro lake inflows have picked up and are now back at normal levels. Auckland drinking water storage has picked up from 44% last week to 46% and rising, but still well below the normal 77% at this time of year.

EQUITY UPDATE
The NZX50 Capital Index is up strongly today, up +0.9% so far and getting back to levels we had at the end of April. The ASX200 is down -0.7% today. Shanghai is open again and in early trade it is off marginally, down -0.2%. Last night the S&P500 ended its daily session up +0.9% after Europe's very strog rises that were north of +2%.

SWAP RATES UPDATE
Yesterday, wholesale swap rates firmed in a minor way. We don't have wholesale swap rates movement details today yet. We will update this later in the day if they show a significant change. The 90-day bank bill rate is back down -1 bp to 0.26%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +4 bps at 0.90%. The China Govt 10yr is up +3 bps to 2.55%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield has turned sharply higher, up +9 bps to 0.67%. The UST 10yr has firmed slightly today to 0.66%, a +3 bps rise.

NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has changed little today, still at 60.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 94.2 AUc. Against the euro we are quite firm at 55.9 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is pretty much unchanged today at 66.6.

BITCOIN FIRM
The price of Bitcoin is up another +1.8% from this time yesterday to US$8,994. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart (including bitcoin) is here.

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56 Comments

by Pat.T | 6th May 20, 4:11pm 1588738302

Good luck to the 700 investors who are seeking redress from the ANZ over the David Ross' Ross Asset Management fraud.

by blobbles | 6th May 20, 4:19pm 1588738744

Comment from ANZ: "...any claims for losses suffered before 1 June 2010 had been brought too late and could not be claimed".

Didn't ANZ hold up court proceedings for a huge amount of time (trying to stop release of data)? Now claiming that it's too late? Seems pretty underhanded...

by Smalltown | 6th May 20, 4:30pm 1588739405

....it was all the fault of a junior staffer.

by Ralph | 6th May 20, 6:32pm 1588746723

I can’t see how the ANZ can be liable unless they can prove the ANZ directly knew the benefit received was based on fraud.

The bank itself didn’t breach any trust or run a Ponzi scheme. Surely at best they might have been negligent, but a bank isn’t the care taker or guarantor of the conduct of every business it serves.

Smells a bit like a need to just have a go at the richest person in the room.

by blobbles | 6th May 20, 10:27pm 1588760842

There are certain transaction patterns that banks must monitor appropriately under AML guidelines. It's why you can't just roll up with 100k in bank notes and get away without giving them paper records... I suspect the operations of a pyramid scheme potentially fall into this category. Hence liability may be possible.

I have witnessed some of the "suspicious transaction" flags raised in ANZ first hand and had to write code to do certain levels of monitoring while working there.

by Ralph | 7th May 20, 10:46am 1588805203

Good post, thanks.

by Becnz | 6th May 20, 4:20pm 1588738835

Calm before the storm.
The government needs to do weekly updates on unempolyment etc otherwise its is going to hit all at once.
It may be better to drip feed news and let everyone know the good and bad so we can make good decisions going forward based on solid figures rather than sugar coating everything and hoping for the best.

by Independent_Observer | 6th May 20, 5:35pm 1588743315

It may not be either Becnz if its bad news from the outset!

by Becnz | 6th May 20, 5:44pm 1588743869

Our main stream news has been down playing whats is now about to hit on the economic front at least Stuff.co.nz is now reporting some of the many who are now suffering job losses.
The reporting here on Interest.co.nz has been more balanced.
The NZherald has some crazy stories linked to Oneroof website that made me cancel my subs paying for crap like they are reporting.
The sooner we face what is coming the quicker we can adapt.

by Independent_Observer | 6th May 20, 6:14pm 1588745661

I've just been watching America to see what we could expect. They could be anywhere between 20-30% unemployed right now. 1930 depression type figures. If it turns out we do better than that - great news.

by Richardfromauckland | 7th May 20, 6:40am 1588790416

Same here. The herald does churn out a lot of nonsense.

by Smalltown | 6th May 20, 4:30pm 1588739441

Have you seen the savage takedown of the noted Epidemiologist Duncan Garner?

(Funningly enough it doesn't seem to have been reported in NZ MSM but the rest of the world is having a laugh.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/closures/nz-pm-jacinda-ardern…
Applicable to all the other jumped up epidemiologists experts including Rewi Woodford (adding it to his byline for virus articles was just crass for an ex professor in an unrelated field), Hosking, Ximon and all.

The PM is taking advice from specialist trained professionals, not someone who has watched "Contagion" 3 times

by Henry_Tull | 6th May 20, 4:36pm 1588739806

Are you sure that's the one view of reality?

What is your view of the situation described below:.
For instance the government workers send home to work from home, while being unable to work from home. Ministerial responsibility.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/415992/immigration-nz-in-disarray-o…

About the DG, do you agree it's a question a number of people, especially business people were interested in?
The guy is a reporter and has been a parliamentary reporter.
Would the question be unexpected, or a surprise to the PM?

by Smalltown | 6th May 20, 4:42pm 1588740168

DG lost it at "I reckon..."

The bigger question is why it wasn't reported in NZ MSM. I guess the employers of the Herald didnt want lil Mikey with his Nigerian PHD in everything exposed.

by Lapun | 6th May 20, 8:15pm 1588752907

Which is worst at INZ - their incompetance or their lack of empathy/kindness?

by dollar_bill | 6th May 20, 4:39pm 1588739992

lol - internet experts and sidelined experts - if anything they are responsible for extending lockdown with their incessant outrage and cajoling of the PTB into making doubly sure, for sure.

by gingerninja | 6th May 20, 5:33pm 1588743237

I have mixed feelings about this. I can understand why Arden is grouchy with journalists. There are few occasions when she is questioned and I don't cringe. NZ media lacks professionalism, rigour, and respect. I watch other global premiers being questioned by journos, (even where there are feelings running extremely high) for instance between Trump and certain newspapers, but they are still incredibly intelligent and respectful, they preface with Mr President etc and the questions are informed and skillful. And then I watch NZ journalists shout over each other in garbled incoherent, childish sentences and it's embarrassing.
However, we have to be able to ALWAYS question the decisions of our leaders. We must never ever, ever, stop questioning and challenging them. That is why we have free, uncensored journalism in the first place. Would we respect a dictator saying "do as I say, trust me, I have experts and you have no authority to question"? How dangerous would that be? It's not unreasonable to question the balance between economic harm and health harm whether you are an epidemiologist or not. Now, unfortunately the NZ media are doing Kiwis as massive disservice with their shoddy journalism. The weaker your journalism, the weaker your democracy IMO.

by Henry_Tull | 6th May 20, 6:18pm 1588745933

GingerN. What do you make of this.

Four weeks ago. A young girl wrote to the Prime Minister asking if there would still be an Easter Bunny.
See TV Ine interview of girl here.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/jacinda-ardern-says-easter-…

The PMs department, apparently the press secretary, passed the question to 1 NEWS political editor Jessica Mutch McKay, who duly asked the PM the question.

The PM made international headlines deeming Easter Bunny as an essential worker.

TV One then interviewed the school girl asking if she was happy the PM had answered her question.

https://amp.tvnz.co.nz/news/story/JTJGY29udGVudCUyRnR2bnolMkZvbmVuZXdzJ…

What do we think?
You can ask the questions you are asked to ask.

by Ralph | 6th May 20, 6:37pm 1588747029

I think most politicians use that tactic and it's crocodile tears when the media goes against them.

The bit that is a little surprising is anybody believing this politician is different.

by Speechless | 6th May 20, 6:29pm 1588746551

Many of those of us who were considering a career in journalism took one look at the state of the industry by the time we finished uni and said no thank you. $40k a year to write corporate propaganda? Nah, I'm good. Thus we are more or less left with the dregs, the ones who were either too stupid to see the problems with the industry or didn't care.

(Not a dig at the excellent journos here at Interest.co, who it goes without saying are the scholars among barbarians.)

But yes, to your point, leaders should be questioned. But I can also understand why it's frustrating to be running on 2 hours of sleep and getting asked the same science illiterate questions over and over and over again by functionally useless talking heads.

Nicky Hager tried to do investigative journalism in NZ, remember what happened there? The freedom and liberty brigade all seem to have conveniently forgotten about that in their anti-police-state rants.

by redcows1 | 6th May 20, 7:12pm 1588749148

Yea but Hagar was just a $&_# stirrer and has been proven totally wrong.

Oh, oh, no that's right.

by Speechless | 6th May 20, 7:52pm 1588751529

Not the point.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/104638742/police-apologise-to…

But your comment confirms exactly what I'm saying - police state tactics all good as long as your team is in charge, so the freedom and liberty whinging is all opportunistic bullsh$t.

by redcows1 | 6th May 20, 10:40pm 1588761652

Not sure I got your point. Mine was sarcasm as Nicky Hagar was totally on the money all the he way.
My own consumption of media has narrowed considerable due to a lack of interest in the feelings of the presenters and writers.

by Speechless | 6th May 20, 11:03pm 1588763009

Ah sorry. There are so many credulous commenters on here I can't tell when the sarc is on sometimes.

But yeah I don't recall ever seeing the Nats engage this sanctimonious civil-rights-crusader mode to defend someone they don't agree with. 10 years ago when Russel Norman got roughed up by Chinese security right in front of parliament for protesting Tibet and all the Nats could do was take the piss, that told me all I needed to know. (Fun fact, the 'Chinese dignitary' whose visit he was protesting at was Xi Jinping. Canary in the coalmine.)

by gingerninja | 7th May 20, 6:19am 1588789153

I can absolutely understand that if you are a politician, journos are annoying, they are the thorn on your side. However, they also supposed to be. It's very unfortunate that NZ journos approach it in such a childish, irritating unskillful way but equally, politicians are supposed to take that on the chin, as its just as much part of *their* job as anything else. Winnie is often a grouchy twat with the media too and I don't think that's good for NZ democracy either.
I understand in this video, it was the umpteenth time the journo had asked the same question more or less, and he was being belligerent but increasingly I can see the irritation on Ardern's face, in her voice but that is not what we want. Her response was sarcastic and withering. That would be cool on a talk show or panel discussion but i do not think it's cool from a Prime Minister. The journo was actually representing (badly) an important question that many Kiwi's are asking. We might not all agree but we all get a voice. It's undemocratic to say "you're not an expert so your question isn't valid". Are there even any virology or epidemiology trained journalists in NZ? How are we supposed to question and keep a government accountable if only an epidemiologist is allowed to ask the PM about the strategy?

Now I know that is probably not what she meant, she was irritated and that guy is a douche, but you get my point? Freedom is taking a very large hammering right now as it is. That's not the PM's fault but no one can deny that this is a dangerous time for our personal liberties and therefore I would suggest that its more important than ever that journos irritate politicians as much as possible, if not then the tension will just spill out elsewhere in society.

I'm not anti-Ardern at all btw. In many areas, I think she is doing a great job, but she is not perfect and must still face scrutiny. I absolutely hated John Key. He actually turns my stomach and I have never been able to understand the love affair so many have with him. But Bill English was fine and better than Grant IMO. I do not subscribe to red team/blue team nonsense. Especially in NZ when both teams are and have been shades of purple for decades.

by Henry_Tull | 7th May 20, 7:56am 1588795019

Yep and it's a weekly thing, she goes on his show for a chat about things each week.
The reaction seems as though it was to something more than the question. The question plus something else.
To call DG out as a dick now, when he was doing what he's always done doesn't fit.
Asking for reporter professionalism now, after earlier giving reporters questions to ask in formal press briefing, doesn't fit either.

We will find in time.
Like now we know, Winston owned up to defeating health advice and not establishing border quarantine when health first advised MFAT, rolling health.

by Lapun | 6th May 20, 8:29pm 1588753789

I agree with you. In the UK usually I feel sorry for the interviewers as their questions are evaded but in NZ I've found myself exasperated by politicians being interrupted just as they have a nuanced point to make. A good interviewer is almost invisible and just gives a politician enough rope to hang themselves.

by Audaxes | 6th May 20, 4:49pm 1588740546

In Brazil, Russia and India there is an acceleration of infection being reported and the underlying dodgy data will build fear quickly.
Hmmmm... https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1257014356618948613

Russia’s Corona Epidemic Response

by Ralph | 6th May 20, 6:38pm 1588747129

Poor countries; insufficient health system, no money for testing, high density living, high corruption levels ..

I don't envy any of them their job.

by Audaxes | 6th May 20, 7:39pm 1588750796

Maybe? - UK government 'using pandemic to transfer NHS duties to private sector'

by theglc | 6th May 20, 4:29pm 1588739351

Today my landlord proactively gave me a 20% reduction off my rent for the next 6 months.

Was totally surprised by that.

Anyone else experienced this or heard of anyone else getting a rent decrease?

I guess they have a good idea whats coming and want to keep me...

by Ralph | 6th May 20, 6:39pm 1588747175

My Sydney landlord gave me 50% without asking for April.

by CJ099 | 6th May 20, 7:28pm 1588750109

Wow that just goes to show how desperate the rental market is with the flood of short term rentals (Airbnb's) looking for long term tenants, now that tourism has gone down the spout.

by northman46 | 6th May 20, 7:36pm 1588750576

Hot dang! I'll turn my phone off silent and hope my landlord calls then.

What area are you renting in, if you don't mind saying?

by theglc | 6th May 20, 9:17pm 1588756641

New Windsor, Auckland

by Lapun | 6th May 20, 8:37pm 1588754251

I changed $525 to $450 for my tenants but just for an unspecified period. I'll be happy if i get it for the rest of the tax year. Didn't do anything formally since by law a landlord cannot change rent more than once every (6 or 12 months - can't remember which). Luckily my mortgage is for about 25% of property CV. Some landlords will find things tough when mortgage holidays end.

by Fritz | 6th May 20, 9:26pm 1588757184

Good on ya

by loganmdonnelly | 7th May 20, 7:40am 1588794054

Mine asked me to sign another year contract and if I did then "they might lower the rent".
We are currently month-to-month (finished previous year contract last year). I declined since we are patiently waiting to see what happens to the housing market now that we are pre-approved.

by Toppertee | 6th May 20, 4:34pm 1588739660

Why is using cash any more dangerous than touching a keypad at the check-out? Please can we stay away from the ‘danger of cash narrative’. It’s rubbish and is merely being used as propaganda to prepare us all for negative interest rates

by powerdownkiwi | 6th May 20, 4:48pm 1588740485

Actually it's part of preparing us for bank monopoly, no the game but the ownership.

They must realise that globalism is slipping and that Govts are taking back power. And they'll be worried; theirs is nothing but sleight of hand.

Unfortunately our PM isn't of the same understanding - Microsoft is no more use to NZ than Tiwai Smelter was, meaning we haven't come a long way since Hugh Watt.

But they're better than the Nats, who'd sell their grandmothers for 10c in the dollar.

by Smalltown | 6th May 20, 4:53pm 1588740780

What's the actual going rate for a grandmother these days?
Quite a bit I reckon if she's got the title of the family estate.

by scarfie | 6th May 20, 6:57pm 1588748258

2 bitcoin

by Newbie | 6th May 20, 5:08pm 1588741709

I am from Korea and we had experience with MS with their investment on data centers. In korea they started talking investment in 2010. And it took 5 years to build one still have not employed 1000 people as they promised at the beginning. It will take long time from the sketch and what they do is sell office365 and other high end software to governments who have no idea how to use them by lobbying officials while they enjoy free electricity and real estate price rise.

by dollar_bill | 6th May 20, 4:49pm 1588740596

keypads don't get passed around and move from place to place I'm guessing but apparently it's all part of a Bohemian Club plan

by bw | 6th May 20, 4:53pm 1588740805

Can't say I've touched a keypad for a couple of months! Mind you, a loaf of bread and a carton of milk from Countdown is just under the $200 contactless limit....

by solardb | 6th May 20, 5:11pm 1588741898

Covid survives on metal surfaces for longer , its coins they are worried about. Paper money has had more fecal samples tested on it than toilets, but not so bad for viruses. .

by Audaxes | 6th May 20, 4:47pm 1588740435

Going into the lockdown, the March bank core funding ratio was at 88.3%, higher than at any time in 2019 and near its highest (best) ever (The actual best-ever was 88.8% in April 2018.)

by Audaxes | 31st Mar 20, 6:39pm
"Low retail interest rates aren't shifting balances out of this type of saving"

Mainly because those swapping savings for another investment vehicle find their way back via the vendor of said investment.

That's why the RBNZ considers retail deposits "sticky" in terms of CFR:
The CFR addresses their longer-term funding position by forcing them to hold a certain amount of more ‘sticky’ core funding, e.g., long-term wholesale debt with maturities of more than one year, or retail deposits.

by Audaxes | 10th Mar 20, 2:32pm
"So we'll just watch that play out. But at the moment we're in a very good position from a liquidity and funding sense, which is great going into something like this when you are seeing market dislocation," said Watson.

Given sticky bank deposits are unsecured bank IOUs created from purchasing a borrower's IOU there is obviously no funding issue because funds are not part of the equation. And these must match each other over the life of the unpaid borrower's IOU while the depositors spend the debtors' interest and principal payments over time. Which in reality are a fresh set of counterparty IOUs.

by scarfie | 6th May 20, 7:01pm 1588748496

What could go wrong? Oh wait, someone has to borrow the interest payment into circulation.

by CJ099 | 6th May 20, 5:09pm 1588741773

It's official Toddler and Chief cares more about the US economy (and survivor votes) then he does about peoples lives. You can rebuild economies but you can't raise the dead to vote Donald!

BBC Coronavirus: White House plans to disband virus task force. "Critics have accused the president of sacrificing Americans' public health in his eagerness to reopen the US economy ahead of his re-election battle in November." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52553829

by Independent_Observer | 6th May 20, 5:33pm 1588743184

Interesting the comment about sharsies investing. As I've mentioned a few times here the last 5-6 weeks that if you're on any of the Facebook share investors groups, there appear to have been a large number of new members all who have no idea and asking should I be buying x.y,z...

Similar experiences with friends who have decided to become share investors after the big fall. My advice has been that we haven't seen the bottom yet.

by gingerninja | 6th May 20, 5:41pm 1588743663

SAMEZ. There was no convincing them otherwise though. Hope they didn't spunk all their savings on the dead cat bounces.

by Toppertee | 6th May 20, 7:36pm 1588750562

Most of the newbies have no idea how low general trading volumes are.. if you look at daily trading volumes of most FTSE, Dow, Nikkei stocks they are well down on the daily averages.

by Speechless | 6th May 20, 7:55pm 1588751717

Definitely a lot of shoe shine boys in the market right now.

by wirehunt | 6th May 20, 6:39pm 1588747175

Hydro lakes in the upper Waitaki have been above average for months, even though the power companies have tried to drop them by literally pouring water down the drain, and keep their prices up.
Cheaper second hand cars will hold their value, up to 10k. The big flash utes will drop like a rock, those 60-70k utes you'll pick up for a song.
The smelter will shut another potline 'for the greater good'. Code for no money in ali and we can make more selling power on the spot market.

by Alter Ego | 6th May 20, 7:16pm 1588749394

Viral on Facebook...Maybe the future is not so Bad?.

https://www.facebook.com/julie.c.koch/videos/2898875636832760/?t=215

by Squishy | 7th May 20, 1:41am 1588772517

Thanks, I enjoyed that!