Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac is adopting 2.65% for a one year fixed rate (down from 2.79%) but just at the same level most of their main rivals are already at.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Westpac has cut both term deposit and savings account rates.
A CLEARER RUN TO KILL EFTPOS
Big banks are starting to unwind COVID-19 inspired free contactless debit transactions for SME customers. It turns out platform providers Visa and MasterCard provided zero relief during lockdowns. Their goal is to wipeout the least-cost routing via EFTPOS and unlike Australia there is no regulator in New Zealand standing in their way to prevent this anti-competitive behaviour.
CHANGE AT THE TOP
Fonterra appointed Peter McBride as its new chairman to succeed John Monaghan in November.
A NATIONAL BOUNCE
The latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll shows support for Labour drops back amid border problems, and as Todd Muller takes over National's leadership.
NOT A SIGN OF RENEWED STRENGTH
Consumer confidence in June rose from the ugly May levels, but it is still hard to get enthusiastic about where it stands. It is still well under its historical average. The net proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item lifted 20 points to +5%, still recessionary levels. The bounce is encouraging, but with unemployment set to rise sharply when payroll support runs out, we need to be realistic about how much spring is likely left, says ANZ. Consumers no longer think house prices will rise in the next year. (In January, February and March they expected them to rise +5%.)
FRAUD CONVICTION
Dr Jaeho Choi has been fined $60,250 after pleading guilty to one charge of obstruction under the Overseas Investment Act 2005. Dr Choi appeared in the Auckland District Court on Thursday 25 June 2020. Dr Choi is an Auckland solicitor who - with his client Dr Won Joo Hur - obstructed the Overseas Investment Office during an investigation into the acquisition of sensitive land in Helensville. Dr Hur was sentenced in February 2020 and ordered to pay a fine of $100,000 for his role in the offending.
HANDS OFF
In its latest statistical release, the RBNZ has revealed that it is not actively manipulating the currency through market trading operations. In fact, it hasn't done so since 2015.
NO FEES ON DOC LAND JUST THE START
The Government is waiving $25 mln worth of access fees for about 1000 tourism operators impacted by COVID-19, with a decision to waive most Department of Conservation tourism related concession fees from 1 March 2020 until 30 June 2021. This is in addition to the wage subsidies, the $400 mln Tourism Recovery Package, and the $1.3 bln "nature based jobs package". In addition, the Government is stumping up $85 mln to kickstart $300 mln in infrastructure spending the the Queenstown area.
GETTING OFF LIGHTLY?
Westpac expects farming to be negatively impacted by the pandemic, but more lightly than other sectors. "We expect COVID will knock overall New Zealand agricultural incomes later in the year, with key dairy and meat farmgate prices likely to be lower over the new season compared to last. – By and large, though, the sector is likely to remain profitable, affording agriculture options that other sectors don’t have."
AUSTRALIA UPDATE
COVID-19 infections are rising ever faster across the ditch. In Australia, reported total cases are up to 7595, +38 since yesterday in a rising trend especially in Victoria. Their death count is unchanged at 104 deaths and their recovery rate is back down to slightly over 91%. There are now 567 active cases in Australia (+38). Major supermarkets have re-instituted a 2-pack limit on toilet paper purchases, as consumer fears return suddenly.
GLOBAL UPDATE
The latest compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is now 9,581,700 and up +176,000 since this time yesterday. This is a rising pace. (And a reminder, when this tally exceeds 10 mln, we plan to give up reporting the number daily.) Total American cases have risen by +38,000 again today to 2,418,400. That is a larger-than-usual daily rise too. The number of active cases in the US is now 1,630,400 and up +28,100 in one day. US deaths now exceed 124,000. Global deaths now exceed 489,000.
"DO YOUR JOB PROPERLY"
Aussie regulator ASIC has lost its badly prosecuted "wagu and shiraz" responsible lending case in the Aussie courts after completely misunderstanding what responsible lending is all about. It's a black eye for cavalier regulators.
MILK POWDER DEMAND CLOUDS
New Zealand milk powder and ingredient exports to China may suffer because of official regulatory pushback in response to irresponsible ordering and use by Chinese consumers. Viral misinformation is powering orders.
EQUITY MARKET UPDATES
At the end of the New York session, the S&P500 rose +1.1% on the day. But that doesn't quite take it back to where the week started. The Shanghai market is closed for a national holiday. Hong Kong is down -0.3% in early trade today. Tokyo is up +1.0% in its early trade. The ASX200 is up +0.7%% heading for a -1.2% weekly decline and the NZX50 is up +0.3% in late trade and heading for a -0.9% weekly loss.
SWAP RATES UPDATE
Swap rates were probably unchanged today. We don't have wholesale swap rates movement details yet but we will update this later in the day if they show a significant movement. The 90-day bank bill rate is staying up at 0.30%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is unchanged at 0.88%. The China Govt 10yr is also unchanged at 2.91% but they are on the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The NZ Govt 10yr yield is not on holiday but is also little-changed at 0.95%. The UST 10yr is little-changed at 0.68%.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has stopped falling, and now up slightly fron this time yesterday at 64.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also little-changed at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 57.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is marginally firmer at 69..2
BITCOIN ALSO ON HOLD
The price of Bitcoin is little-changed from yesterday at US$9,246. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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34 Comments
" the Government is stumping up $85 mln to kickstart $300 mln in infrastructure spending the Queenstown area." No better an example of what 'free' money, that never has to be repaid, can be wasted spent on.
(A bit like SCF and Lumsden property investments flicked on to Dunedin Council when the GFC hit - it's who you know and who the likely losers might be)
CN , I noted your reference today to Ireland . Obviously in 2007 , few expected price falls of any significance. Although this data does not break down the separate Dublin areas, it nonetheless provides sobering tabled data. I note mortgage rates continue to be lower in Ireland, the economy, not withstanding a housing rout substantially larger than New Zealand , and house prices significantly lower..
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YATedhi3k9Znxk8MyBGAY0y5fDtoHVx…
I have thrown in one for the property investors ,rental income..
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HdKNk9DpzNJkp03FplKWa7EjoYjc0DX…
This is huge but not sure what the Fed is playing at here.
For the first time since the aftermath of the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve is putting new restrictions on how the country’s biggest banks spend capital, with an eye toward protecting the financial system from risks to the economy posed by the coronavirus pandemic.
The Fed ordered the country’s 33 biggest banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America, to suspend their stock buyback programs and limit dividend payments to shareholders in the third quarter. The banks must also submit new plans for maintaining enough of the capital needed to survive a downturn.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/25/fed-stress-test-coro…
Well, Slow Joe said today that more than 120 Million have died from Covid. What has this guy been doing down in his bunker. Smoking dope.
If this has happened then the Fed would be happy the banks don't need to lend all these funds to businesses.
Problem solved - Thanks Joe
Email from RE Agent :
Hi,
The outlook for the Auckland property market is as bright as it was going into lockdown and the resilience and ever-enduring importance of property has been proven once again!
Banks have already slashed mortgage rates, so there’s no better time to think about buying your dream property.
Check out our open homes this weekend and you could be in your new home sooner than you thought!
Enjoy the weekend!
Regards,
they are so disjointed over there, the federal government , VIC and NSW have gone for control the virus where the rest have gone for elimination these two states wont make those arriving take a test , today you had NT reimpose quarantine for people from VIC , WA are not going to open, they are taking Queensland to federal court to get them to open
Starting to get a few returning Kiwis who have lost their jobs however at this early stage they are likely to be ones that had no house to sell and hence have no money to buy here and will be renting. Also a few others can see a crash coming and are exiting to rent. It's a complex market at the moment for sure and its looking more and more like a high stakes poker game.
Meanwhile, Winston/NZF axes Auckland light rail likely because he loves Chinese electric buses.
https://www.gw.govt.nz/metlink-to-boost-electric-buses-from-2-to-22-per…
Auckland have also started buying full electric buses this year...
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