A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; TSB cuts mortgage rates, business confidence still subdued, more public funding for businesses, more ComCom complaints, swaps stay very low, NZD firms, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; TSB cuts mortgage rates, business confidence still subdued, more public funding for businesses, more ComCom complaints, swaps stay very low, NZD firms, & more
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Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB has cut rates to 2.49% for each of one year, 18 months and 2 years fixed. As a set, that is lower than all its rivals.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.

STAYING SUBDUED
ANZ Business Outlook preliminary survey results for November show business confidence 'definitely could be worse!' But it is essentially unchanged in early November from the October result.

A STEEPER SLIDE
Just like new cars, sales of used imports is sliding fast now too with the October data released today. The annual rate is back down to 2014 levels after a sharp slide that started in February 2018 which has accellerated since February 2020. For the month of September, sales were down more than -16% from the same month in 2019.

PROFIT DROP
BNZ was the next big bank to report sharply lower results as a result of the pandemic and the economic consequences. Annual profit fell -$260 million due to income falls and expense rises.

TAXPAYER TO STUMP UP MORE FOR STRUGGLING BUSINESSES
The Government is weighing up additional measures to support businesses, especially SMEs, through debt and equity assistance programs. More details here.

POPULAR & LOWER YIELDS
There were four more NZ Treasury bond tenders today, raising another $650 mln. The main feature today is the generally lower yields. These four issues attracted $2.346 bln, leaving almost $1.7 bln unsatisfied. The May 2024 nominal bond was won with an average yield of 0.015% and less than the 0.02% it achieved two weeks ago. The May 2031 nominal bond achieved a 0.51% yield, also less than the 0.57% yield also two weeks ago. And the May 2041 issue went for a 1.22% yield, marginally less than the prior 1.24%. There was also an inflation linker which wasn't very well supported but it went for a yield of -0.33% plus CPI.

MANY MORE COMPLAINTS
The impact of COVID-19 has seen a record level of travel-related complaints to the Commerce Commission in the 2019/20 year. There were 9892 total complaints received by the Commission in the year to June, +10% more than for the prior year. 1225 were for travel refund disputes arising from the pandemic interruptions.

IT'S ONLY ABOUT CHINA
Australia has posted another large +AU$5.6 bln trade surplus in September for both goods and services, boosted by a +4% rise in exports and a -6% fall in imports. Their surplus with China however was +AU$4.8 bln for the month and AU$63 bln for the year to September. This annual surplus reached its peak of AU$73 bln in March and since then has declined as China started using trade as a defensive weapon to try and punish Australia for its security and human rights criticisms. Aussie wheat exporters are nervously watching the escalating trade dispute with China amid fears they could be Beijing's next target.

GOLD PRICE RECOVERS
The price of gold made a sharp recovery of the losses we noted this morning in New York, ending down a relatively minor -US$6 on the day. In Asian trade, it has continued to rise, up to US$1206/oz and another +US$3. That is +US$6 higher than the afternoon fix in London.

EQUITIES UPDATE
Earlier today, the S&P500 closed up +2.2% but it is hard to understand why given the high level of US election uncertainty. Shanghai has opened marginally higher ay +0.2% but Hong Kong is up sharply by +2.5% in their early session. The Tokyo exchange is up +1.1% and the ASX200 is up +1.1% in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 Capital Index is up +0.5% in late trade.

SWAPS HIT ZERO, BOND YIELDS JUMP
Yesterday, the two year swap rate rose off the zero level. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.29%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -6 bps at 0.82%. The China Govt ten year bond is little-changed again at 3.20%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is down -7 bps at just on 0.52% and now below the earlier RBNZ-recorded fix of 0.54% (-1 bp). And the US Govt ten year is down a stunning -20 bps from this time yesterday at 0.74% in a very sharp bear shift.

NZD PICKS ITSELF UP
The Kiwi dollar gave back all of Tuesday's rise, and is now at 66.9 USc but still +½c higher than where it was this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are lower at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also a little firmer at 57.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 has risen back to 70.2.

BITCOIN FIRMER
Bitcoin continues to rise and is up another +2.3% from this time yesterday at US$14,161. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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29 Comments

I'm getting 2017 vibes from the ol' rat poison. Exciting times.

Good play on words with your username!

Thanks :)

Really is just still going isn't it! Noo I want it to drop, still need to stack some sats :(

I'm getting 2017 vibes from the ol' rat poison. Exciting times.

Yes. I'm feeling similar. With the expectation that the ATH could be just another data point in the near future.

Bitcoin now at almost $14,300. That puts its return from 1 January at +100% (beating its 2019 return of +90%), and +361% since its cycle low at the end of 2018. The current price was last reached on 15 January 2018, although in that case very much in the opposite direction.

Other similar / correlated assets doing much better, like ETH and some fintech stocks (Square, ARK funds, Microstrategy, Paypal etc)

100%.

It's an interesting time and its significance underestimated. To me, it's the equivalent of going from fax to email, or the invention of the smartphone.

So it’s return since the 15th of Jan 2018 is?

ask again on 15th Jan 2021 - will be a different story

You would be up a few hundred dollars, as BTC is now $14,500

Feels like the calm before the storm. Seems more people putting their houses on the market at crazy prices ATM, and some far higher than some of these estimator websites, let alone the RVs

Yes there's been a massive surge in Auckland properties listed on Trademe in the past 2 weeks, over 10,000 now and counting

Surge, yes, but I wouldn't say massive. Two years ago the pre Xmas surge was 3k more stock in akl. This year 500 so far?

NZ houses. Meh. The smart money is steering clear of debt-driven bubbles.

sales of used imports is sliding fast now too with the October data released today

The mythical cashed up Kiwis returning from abroad don't seem to be interested in anything but SUV and overpriced properties.

From member of the house to seller of house. Pretty much same thing, talk lots of BS: https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123310399/former-mp-hamish-walke...

"Wow, for a white supremacist Donald Trump has done very well among black and Latino voters. Literally Hitler, as some woke agitators loved to call him after he won the election in 2016, seems to have boosted his support among black men and black women and, most strikingly, among Latinos, who appear to be swinging things for Trump in some areas. Not bad for a president who, as the correct-thinking section of society constantly insisted, cares only about white folks.

...Whatever else the election might do, it hasn’t repudiated Trumpism. But it is very possible that it will repudiate identity politics."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/donald-trump-and-the-death-of-identi...

It's interesting, isn't it. Sadly I'd agree that it isn't a repudiation of Trumpism. But one shouldn't get carried away -- yes he did better amongst these minority groups than last time, and better than expected, but still abysmally in absolute terms.

""In Florida, one of the most stunning results of the night, almost half of Latinos voted for Trump, up from 35 per cent in 2016.""
Roughly half the Latinos in Florida is not 'abysmally in absolute terms'. An increase in Black working class votes too. Nobody hates Trump more than me but there is a lesson to be learned from this election. I'd say the lesson is minority groups don't like the white middle class lecturing them.

The lesson is that there isn't enough for everyone, anymore. And that's in the #1 Empire on the planet. Same goes for here; the PM was silly (naive? ignorant?) taking on Child Poverty again. Can't be had. If we went fully egalitarian tomorrow (which includes not defrauding future generations, of course) we'd be consuming stuff-all each. And it wouldn't be 'an economy' in the currently-accepted sense.

Anyway, Trump appeals to those with nothing to lose, those dropped by the current system. The demographic is 'those without'; some of whom remember being 'with'. He cant fix what is an existential problem. Nobody can. But nobody has told the dispossessed. Yet.

In Florida, with some rather unique circumstances (eg Cuba), that was his best performance by far and he broke even. Look elsewhere and I stand by abysmal in absolute terms. Lost blacks 7 to 1 and Latinos 2 to 1 nationally.

4.3 million Latinos in Florida (2010 census). That compares to 4.35 million New Zealanders in 2010.

Quote from the article: ""There appears to have been a shift of working-class black voters towards Trump too."" OK 1 in 7 is not impressive, you might say abysmal but surely given the outrageous statements Trump has made since he has been president a massive decline would have been predicted - almost all the media has concentrated on the implicit racism of his comments.
I have a visceral dislike of Trump predating his interest in politics and the more I learn about him the worse it gets. But every vote for Trump has a meaning. To rephrase it: 'there is an ever widening gap between ordinary people and the establishment'. Is it a simple failure of diversity in our media, politics and academia - not diversity of ethnicity and gender but class. The silencing of the working class?

In Florida the Latino groups are mostly comprised of Cubans and Venuzeleans. Trump promised to roll back the Obama sweet-heart deals with Cuba etc. Whereas in Arizona the opposite. Latinos mostly comprise Mexicanos and they 100% voted for Biden. Arizona had a regime that subjected Mexicans to police road-side stops and show-me-your-papers

Welcome to NZ MIQ voucher system
As from midnight 2 November 2020 all inbound arrivals into NZ require an MIQ accommodation voucher

Today 5 november exemptions being issued already
Wonder he didnt apply to the Court of Appeal for name suppression
But, speed dial to NZ Herald got them on the job
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/tall-blacks-star-tom-vodanovich-and-girlfr...

And then in the ranks...

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-christchurch/huge-tension-and-resen...

"There is huge tension and resentment within the hotel at how things are managed between the groups involved, including private security firms on minimum wage 'who do all the heavy lifting' plus police, who have their own room, nurses and other health staff provided by the Canterbury District Health Board and Aviation Security.

How do you actually go about negotiating for a lower fixed interest rate that has expired and rolled onto floating? My brothers 305k loan has come up for renewal and the branch isnt interested saying just login and pick your term online. ASB. Im cashed up now but would have hit up my commercial account manager who was happy to neogiate.

Asb certainly likes to act like their app/online offers are the last word. I doubt that's true in all cases, but it might be for 300k.

Sorry. Was trying to reply and hit report comment by accident. The buttons are so close together on my phone.
Anyway- if he is only floating so free to move banks get a good broker involved. Recently - 350k lending, got a discount on rate and $2100 cash back 3 months ago when broker negotiated for me. Paulette trotter in highland Park. Don't need to be nearby. but I'm sure someone in your circle can recommend one to.