A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; no retail rate changes, investors active, FMA slams NZX, cleaner cars coming, bigger trade surplus, swaps soft, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

RISING SHARE BUT TOUGHER OUTLOOK
CoreLogic says investors' share of the residential property market is now the highest since 2016. It also says it's looking increasingly likely residential property investors will face tougher lending restrictions and new tax rules on capital gains.

FMA SLAMS NZX OVER IT ISSUES
The Financial Markets Authority says the NZX did not accept responsibility for known systemic issues in its IT systems and was slow to act when its problems first surfaced.

TOUGHER EMISSIONS STANDARDS
The Government has committed to introducing its 'Clean Car Import Standard' this year, giving importers until 2025 to slash the emissions profiles of the passenger cars they bring into the country. 

CASCADING REACTIONS
Another Infratil asset dons the 'for sale' sign. Trustpower (TPW) says it is 'testing market interest' in its retail energy business that has over 230,000 customers. Infratil (IFT) started this chain reaction, putting its large holding in Tilt Energy up for sales. Now two Aussie infrastructure investors are trying to buy Infratil itself.

"THE FUTURE IS MÄORI"
The RBNZ today released an intensive review it commissioned BERL to do on the Māori economy. It is as at 2018. Although it is a few years old now, it is still a fascinating read. It details an asset base in 2018 of $69 bln and a production GDP for this economy of $17 bln. Most of the financial assets are in the agribusiness sector, and real estate. But the other eleven sectors seem to have much higher productivity levels. On a Production GDP basis it represented a 6.5% of the national economy. On a Income basis, it is 8.3%. On an Expenditure basis it is 14.9% on the national economy. The breadth of investment is impressive and it grew a remarkable +37% between 2013 and 2018, far faster than the overall economy. The Māori workforce is increasing fast and skill levels are rising. The Māori asset base is increasingly diverse and healthy. Māori employers are increasingly prominent.

TAKING A POINT OFF
Ratings agency Fitch has rated Heartland's AU$75 mln wholesale Notes as BBB-, just within investment grade. Heartland Group is rated BBB. Fitch says this lower rating is "reflecting a lack of sufficient bank holding company senior debt and group junior debt buffers."

BIGGER SURPLUS, MORE DIVERSIFIED
Our trade balance ended 2020 with a bit of a whimper. The December surplus was just +$17 mln, compared to +$380 mln in December 2019. In 2018 the December balance was +$9.3 mln. For the whole year, merchandise exports were $59.9 bln, unchanged from 2019. Imports were $59 bln, so there was an annual surplus of +$2.9 bln, the first year we have posted an annual trade surplus since 2011. Our surpluses with China and Australia were little-changed in 2020 from 2019, but we turned a -$795 mln deficit with the USA into a 2020 surplus (of +$1.1 bln), and a -$732 mln deficit with Japan into a +$331 mln surplus. It has been a year of diversifying markets with the China share of our exports slipping slightly to 27.7%.

NOT QUITE AS POPULAR
The new slimmed-down NZ Govt bond tenders are not as popular as they have been recently, if today's event is any indication. They attracted $1.3 bln in bids for the $450 on offer. This is the first time in a long time less than $1 bln has been left unsatisfied. The May 2024 $200 mln tranche attracted 32 bidders with 11 successful at 0.29% pa yield, actually slightly lower than the prior event two weeks ago. The April 2027 $150 mln tranche attracted 42 bids with only 7 successful. This one yielded 0.58% pa, similar to last time. The final $100 mln May 2041 tranche had 39 bids with 16 successful at 1.90% pa, slightly higher than the 1.86% two weeks ago.

NEW BOND SCAM
ASIC is warning investors of a rise in imposter bond investment offers. Scammers pretend to be associated with well-known domestic and international financial service firms and offer high yield bond investments to investors.

AUSSIE CULTURE WARS TURNING EVEN
In Australia, a new poll detects a sizeable recent shift. 59% of Australians want January 26 known as Australia Day but a sizeable minority of 41% wants it known as Invasion Day. It is increasingly the old and male vs the young.

GOLD PRICE DOWN
Gold is trading in Australia, and soon in Asian markets. So far today it is down -US$13 from this time yesterday to US$1839 which is -US$9 below the closing New York price and -US$7 below the afternoon fix in London.

EQUITIES UPDATES
The S&P500 ended its session today down an ugly -2.6% as it sunk progressively as the day wore on. The ASX is down -2.4% in early afternoon trade in a mirror. The NZX50 Capital Index is down -1.9% in late trade. In Shanghai, they have opened down -0.9%, Hong Kong is down -0.9%, but the Tokyo market is down -1.3% all in very early trade.

SWAP & BOND RATES SOFT
We don't have today's swap rate movements yet. If there are material changes when the end-of-day swap rates are available today, we will update them here. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 0.29%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -1 bp at 1.05%. The China Govt ten year bond is also down -1 bp at 3.19%. But the New Zealand Govt ten year is up by +3 bps at 1.09% and above where the earlier RBNZ fix was, at 1.07% (up +4 bps). The US Govt ten year is soft at under 1.03%.

NZD SUFFERS
The Kiwi dollar is now at 71.5 and almost -1c lower than at this time yesterday as commodity currencies lack favour in the current risk-off mood. On the cross rates we are marginally firmer against the Aussie at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are soft at 59.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is down to 73.1.

BITCOIN SINKS
The bitcoin price hasn't recovered today after the overnight drubbing. It is very down -4.0% from this time yesterday at US$30,935.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».