Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.
DOWN LOW BUT NOT OUT YET
Activity in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms hit a new low last week but numbers are picking up this week.
STUBBED TOE
Synlait (SML, #48) has reported at -$28.5 mln loss, but looks for return to 'robust profitability' and sees return to 'similar levels' of profits as prior to this year by 2023.
NZX50 WINNERS & LOSERS
Last week on the NZX50, capitalisation rose just +0.1% in the week to be +12.3% higher than a year ago, and now at $135 bln (or 39.7% of GDP - or 11.8% of residential housing values excluding rentals). Napier Port (NPH, #50) fell -3.3% and two places to last place. Largest % fall for the week was Pushpay Holdings (PPH, #23) down -5.1%. The largest increase was Fonterra (FSF, #46) and up +8.0%, and Skellerup (SKL, #30) which was up +7.6% for the week.
GREEN HYDROGEN INTEREST PIQUED
A proposal to build the world’s first large-scale green hydrogen plant in Southland has been met with strong interest from domestic and international businesses. Meridian (MFT, #4) and Contact (CEN, #6)'s Southern Green Hydrogen project has attracted more than 80 responses to its registration of interest process. There is a strong focus on using green hydrogen produced from renewable energy for export and also to decarbonise carbon-intensive sectors including heavy transport, aviation, shipping and agriculture in New Zealand.
MONOPOLY CONTROL OF A CHOKE POINT
In Australia, unions are about to launch extended industrial action on their waterfront, designed to exert maximum pressure leading up to the end-of-year import rush. It could get ugly in a system already near breaking point. Previous ongoing slowdowns have led to ship wait times of 18 days in Sydney, 9 days in Melbourne and Brisbane. Union employees also took random sickies 7500 times in the past few months. These workers are paid an average of AU$172,000 for a 35 day roster to work 200 days a year and are seeking better conditions than that.
GERMAN ELECTION UPDATE
Further vote counting in the German MMP election suggests that the SDP is increasing its lead (up by +5%) with the far left probably failing to reach the 5% threshold, the far-right AfD floundering (down by -2%) but safely above the threshold, the Greens up by +5%, and the CDU (ex Merkle) down by -8%). That might squeeze the center party FDP out (up by +1%). A grand coalition SDP/CDU is still possible, excluding all the little parties. Counting continues.
PANDEMIC PRESSURE EASES
In Australia, there were another 787 new community cases in NSW reported today with another 596 not assigned to known clusters, and these numbers are a material improvement - or perhaps they just relate to weekend testing. They now have 11,260 active locally acquired cases. Victoria reported another 779 new cases today. Queensland is still reporting zero new cases. The ACT has 25 new cases again. Overall in Australia, more than 51% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 24% have now had one shot so far. There were no new cases in New Zealand at the border, and 12 more in the community, all in Auckland and all linked to already isolating cases. So far, 43% of eligible Kiwis now have both shots, another 34% the initial shot. So far the New Zealand vaccination effort (77% of Kiwis and rising) and the resistance seen in Australia is fading with theirs now at 75.8%.
GOLD FIRMER TODAY
Compared to where we were this time Saturday, the gold price has risen +US$4 at US$1754/oz in early Asian trade.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 started positively today, but has now turned negative and is down -0.2% near the end of trading. Meanwhile the ASX200 is still positive, up +0.6% in early afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.2% in very early trade. Hong Kong is up +% and Shanghai is up +%. Europe will be affected by the stalemate in the German MMP election. The S&P500 futures suggests Wall Street will open up +0.3%.
SWAP & BONDS RATES HOLD
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. We will update this if there are significantly different changes when the end-of-day data comes through. The 90 day bank bill rate firmed +1 bp to 0.63%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is now at 1.42% and up +2 bps from this time Saturday. The China Govt 10yr is now at 2.89% and unchanged. The New Zealand Govt 10 year rate is now at 1.94%, unchanged from this morning, and now well above the earlier RBNZ fix for that rate at 1.91% (+1 bp). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.45% and unchanged from this time this morning.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is now at 70.2 USc and just marginally firmer than were we opened this morning. Against the Aussie we are just over 96.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also higher at just on 59.9 euro cents. The TWI-5 is just on 73.7, and moving up but still not quite at the top of the 72-74 range we have been in for most of the past eleven months.
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BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$43,473 and a mere +0.6% above where we opened this morning. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been high at just over +/- 3.8%.
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36 Comments
It is important that 'green hydrogen' is recognised as a storage and delivery mechanism for electricity that has been created by some other process. So it is not cheap energy. In this case the electricity would be generated at Manapouri and then converted to hydrogen - a two stage process. It may be a good solution but it won't be cheap. Businesses will be salivating at the investment opportunities associated with building and operating the plant.
KeithW
Partly , but the Chinese really made(I should say brought) the big breaks in technology and production. Suntech brought an Australian's Universtiies break through technology back in the late 90's / early 2000's, and became the first big producer Now virtually all panels are made in China, and the top brands are unbeatable on price and performance.Australia no longer manufactures pv panels.
You are correct that the tech has not changed massively , they've gone from about 17 % efficient to the low 20's % efficient.
Another thing to consider, is that electricity might not be an ideal energy source for certain applications. Aviation being an example. Strapping a bunch of heavy batteries to an aircraft is not viable. But if we can use wind/hydro/solar derived electricity to refine hydrogen fuel then while the EROI is negative, the outcome is a usable fuel source.
NZdan - yes, but a society going backwards that much, energy-wise, ain't flying. We are already unable to underwrite a dollar of global GDP, without ' creating' more than a dollar's worth of debt. In other words, society is already unable to pay it's way - even with a count which avoids stuff. By the time we're down to hydrogen, the debt has been defaulted on. One way or another....
Brock - too entropic; it'll never fly......
I don't subscribe to the energy shortage doom and gloom. There is boundless wind and solar in any desert. Failing that we know how to build small modular nuclear reactors and have limitless supply of fuel. Only anti-nuclear hippies stand in the way.
Necessity is the mother of all invention and technology can be developed to solve most problems.
There are lot of people queing up to use that surplus nighttime electricity - charging our EVs and electric buses / ferries / planes, batteries in homes, pumping water up the hill at Onslow, making 'green' hydrogen etc. It's almost like we might need a 'plan' of some kind.
"it is not cheap energy" This suggests its not expensive either. I'd suggest it more like very expensive.
The next stage is we made a lot of hydrogen gas, what do we do with the gas and how do we transport it?
After gas production is also likely to be expensive, perhaps hideously so. Unfortunately I don't have numbers. It would have been done by now if it was economic to do and I suspect massive subsidies or disincentives in other forms of energy will be needed to make it viable for the end user.
Did anyone see the interview on the AM show this morning with John Key and Jacinda Ardern? (you can see on TV3 on demand)
- JK, we need a plan and dates for unlocking the country and incentives to increase vaccinations
- JA, we hope... we're looking at modelling... our intention is... the plan is to look at it... we cannot say when
JK, just parroting popular opinion as usual . Virtually every commentator / opinion poster has said the same thing.
you'd have to be pretty naive or one eyed to think that government is not planning for many different scenarios going forward. JA's answer is correct , the plan must be flexible to allow for different infection rates, different strains, etc.
The incentives are been provided by local providers , depending on the local need. There's alot of money avaliable for testing / vaccinations , the incenntives can come out of that , and the health provider still makes money .
You need a plan mate, do you live your whole life without a plan or goals ? Failure to plan is planning to fail, no guessing required as to where this Labour lot are right now. If you cannot see that this is quite possibly the worst government in NZ history, I'm sure you will in a couple more years.
Having spent time working in various government departments in Wellington, its most likely that the government won't have an agreed upon plan because nobody in a political environment would want to put their neck on the line and commit to a plan that they are responsible for executing. They might end up looking bad so its best to not have a plan in the first place!
(its been a few years since I've been in Wellington....so lets hope its changed....but from what I see with government and the RBNZ....I doubt that it has).
Decision on Tiwai point needs to be made now. No use waiting till 2024, then the smelter will have the upper hand again.
I have not seen an efficiency comparison between Hydrogen and lithium battery storage.I would think the emphasise for the government will be on preserving or creating jobs in Southland. if the smelter closes , it seems likely the coal mines will close too( dairy factory and others drops coal for electricity). a plan to create a carbon neutral Southland could create jobs locally. Battery powered trains , planes , ferries, trucks and cars. A new transmission line to at least Dunedin would still be desirable.
"Battery powered trains , planes, ferries, trucks and cars" - um, only cars are commercially available at the moment, and the dreadful combination of physics and infrastructure tends to rule out any but small, light versions of all the rest. Infrastructure can be fixed with gobs of Munny, physics cannot.
Hydrogen fuel cells hold around 10 times more energy per kg than lithium ion batteries. BUT, they lose 65% to 75% of energy between charging and propulsion due to electrolysis, compression, transportation, etc. Comparable loss figures for lithium ion batteries are losses of 10% to 30%.
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