A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; $4.70 confirmed, trade balance surprise, immigration surge, swap rates flatten, weak AUD promotes the kiwi

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There have been no home loan rate changes again today.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
It's all quiet on the term deposit front as well.

NO CHANGE, BUT STILL POSSIBLE
Surprising few, Fonterra confirmed its $4.70 payout level today for the current season. With fast rising dairy prices the gloom has lifted from the industry quite quickly. Economists still believe Fonterra may yet raise its forecast milk price for the current year even though the diary giant declined to do so in its update today.

A POSITIVE TRADE SURPRISE
New Zealand recorded a trade surplus of $56 mln in January, beating market forecasts of a small deficit. It was the first surplus since June 2014 and compares with a surplus of $285 mln in January 2014. There were no special factors behind the surprise, with both exports and imports slightly more favourable than was expected. The cost of oil was less than usual, a welcome saving.

GAME OVER?
The latest BNZ review of online sales confirms the recent trend of local online retailers losing share to offshore merchants. Electronic goods and clothing are both areas where we are not supporting home grown offerings. The failure of the Shanton Fashions retail brand today confirms how hard it is for local clothing retailers to run at cost levels that can sustain their businesses locally.

OUR COUSINS STRUGGLING
The weak capex investment data out of Australia today is putting the AU$ under pressure. It is also putting the RBA under pressure for another cut to the cash rate, with economists increasing bets on a March reduction next week.

IMMIGRATION SURGES
More permanent migrants arrived in January that in any other month, ever. This data is being boosted by a surging education sector. The leakage to Australia has nearly dried up.

TOURIST ARRIVALS STRONG
We are getting more than our share of tourists visiting. In fact, it is the visitors from Australia that are pumping the numbers, which undermines the idea that our high exchange is hurting that sector. It is clearly not.

EIGHT MONTH LOW
Although the holiday period may explain some of it, the proportion of high LVR home loans made by banks in January was the lowest we have seen since May 2014. Only 5.8% of all loans approved were above the 80% threshold. The biggest proportional drop was for first home buyers but investor approvals for high LVR lending also fell sharply.

A NEW EXEMPTION
Body corporates will no longer have to register for GST. There are nearly 14,000 of them and many are self-managed. This change will benefit them. But there are also increasing numbers set up captively by developers and run by 'professionals' and this proposed no-GST regime may be looked on by this obscure sector as a potential tax dodge.

PORTUGAL STRATEGY HAS CONTRIBUTED $900 MLN
NZ Super Fund CEO Adrian Orr says the specific investment strategy that has seen the Super Fund lose a US$150 mln loan, pending legal challenge, to Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo, has contributed NZ$900 mln to the Fund since mid-2009. Gavin Walker, Chairman of the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, told Parliament's Commerce Select Committee the Fund has returned 18.7% p.a. over three years. However, over the long-term the Fund is expected to generate average returns of 8% to 9% per annum, based on current portfolio settings.

YUAN ON THE UP
The latest data for global SWIFT trade transactions is out and that shows the Chinese yuan representing almost 10% of all deals. The US dollar is holding at over 80%, but it is the yen that have been declining along with many other minnows. The euro has been holding, surprisingly.

WHOLESALE RATES FLATTEN
Swap rates are down again today with a very strong flattening bias. For 2 years they are down just -1 bps, for 5 years down -3 bps and for 10 years they are down -6 bps which is a very large one day reaction. The 90 day bank bill rate however is up +1 bps bp to 3.63%.

NZ DOLLAR RISES
Check our real-time charts here. The fx markets have jumped around quite a bit today driven by the migration and trade data but we are basically back to levels we had at this time yesterday. The kiwi dollar is now at 75.5 USc, up to 96.3 AUc on the weak Aussie capex data, and the TWI is up to 78.7.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.