By Chris Trotter*
It is no small thing when a former prime minister speaks publicly during a time of national crisis. At such times, the words of former leaders, spoken in support of present leaders, can have a powerfully unifying effect. Indeed, there are few gestures capable of generating such positive results. When support is received from across the party-political divide, the message is simple. In this time of crisis, what unites us is of vastly greater importance than what divides us.
By the same token, it is no small thing when a former leader steps forward to criticise the present leadership’s handling of a national crisis. Far from generating unity, such interventions can only intensify divisions – especially when the former leader concerned hails from the Opposition party. On top of the fears arising directly out of crisis, such interventions heap the bitterness of partisanship and conflict. Only in the face of the most imminent danger; only in response to the most abject failure; could such an intervention be justified.
That the former National Party prime minister, John Key, makes no attempt to convince his fellow New Zealanders that the policies of their government pose either an imminent threat to public safety, or represent an abject failure of political leadership, casts his very public intervention in the ongoing Covid-19 crisis in a deeply troubling light. To present an alternative strategy to that of the Government: a strategy unsupported by scientific evidence, but laced with highly contentious invective; raises serious questions as to motivation.
Not the least of these questions is why Key chose to make his intervention in splendid isolation from the present leader of the National Party, Judith Collins? The most obvious riposte: to give Collins plausible deniability; simply will not wash.
Key’s article, published in competing newspapers, on the same day (26/9/21) comes at a time when Collins’ leadership is under constant fire from forces both inside and outside her party. It would, therefore, be entirely understandable if Key’s opinion-piece was construed by many National Party supporters as a “For God’s sake, woman, stand aside and let me show you how it’s done!” moment.
If Key’s article constituted a magisterial review of Jacinda Ardern’s government’s handling of the Covid-19 Pandemic, such an unflattering construction might have been avoided. Had it been full of carefully marshalled scientific evidence and practical solutions to well-established problems, suspicions of intra-party dog-fighting could have been cast aside. Especially if it had been rounded-out with a measured, above-the-fray call for bi-partisan co-operation in the national interest. Sadly, Key’s article does not fit this description.
Even Key’s choice of metaphor – the ill-fated mission of Apollo 13 – fails to fire. Key presents Apollo 13 as the classic example of imaginative adaptation:
“In a crisis, humans can be creative and inventive. Faced with the growing acceptance that Covid-19 and its variants may be with us indefinitely, the New Zealand Government and public health officials, like Nasa in 1970, rapidly need to change their thinking to adapt to the new challenge.”
Except that Key’s understanding of Apollo 13 is fundamentally flawed. Nasa didn’t change their thinking, they were simply forced to do more of it. Most importantly, they had to think about how to get the astronauts home safely using only what they had on the spacecraft. That was the critical challenge: to accept that no one was going to save Apollo 13 except the men on Apollo 13. All Houston had to offer them was advice. To get home, the Apollo 13 astronauts had to “follow the science”.
It is highly instructive that this interpretation of Apollo 13 never occurred to Key. Hardly surprising, of course, since by this reading, Jacinda Ardern, her Government, and “the team of five million” behaved exactly like the astronauts. They sealed themselves in and sat tight in their tiny, acutely vulnerable country. They consulted their scientists, heeded their advice, and with maximum care, and minimum destruction, brought New Zealand safely home.
It is telling that Key looks upon the this extraordinary success-story and can come up with no better descriptions than “smug hermit kingdom” and “North Korean option”. In the midst of this country’s ongoing, much more desperate, and yet to be won struggle against the Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus, New Zealand’s former prime minister decries what he sees as the Ardern Government’s lack of urgency:
“The only urgency we’ve seen for months is an enthusiasm to lock down our country, lock up our people and lock out our citizens who are overseas.”
This is not the sort of language one expects to hear from someone who is trying to help. Frankly, it is more akin to the sort of language one encounters on Facebook. A cartoonist who shared Key’s opinions would undoubtedly depict Jacinda Ardern as a madly cackling queen enthroned atop a pile of prostrate Kiwi prisoners.
Not content with describing his country as a gigantic jailhouse, however, Key goes on to characterise the Government’s expert scientific advisers as fearmongers:
“Public health experts and politicians have done a good job of making the public fearful, and therefore willing to accept multiple restrictions on their civil liberties which are disproportionate to the risk of them contracting Covid.”
Says who? A former prime minister whose professional expertise lies in currency trading – an occupation with no obvious connections to the science of epidemiology. One hesitates to ask which overseas model Key would wish to see promoted by the New Zealand Government: Sweden’s, Ireland’s, Singapore’s, the United Kingdom’s, the United States’?
One wonders, too, how Key must have greeted the news that the latest polling by Research New Zealand shows upwards of 70% of New Zealanders wholly or partly supportive of the “multiple restrictions on their civil liberties” that “Lockdown” entails. His dismay at discovering how very few New Zealanders favoured dropping all restrictions – “masks, quarantine and the lot” – just 7%, is easily imagined.
Key’s 5-point plan, for what? “Freedom Day”? is a curious mixture of carrot and stick. The more reasonable suggestions are already being investigated by the Government, the Ministry of Health, and the business community. At the core of his appeal, however, is Key’s deep-seated frustration (shared by the not inconsiderable number of powerful individuals and organisations for whom he is speaking) with the Government’s all-too-evident success in persuading a substantial majority of the population that the measures it has adopted to keep New Zealanders safe are both necessary and effective.
How do they explain their own failure to persuade New Zealanders that getting rid of lockdowns and throwing open the borders is the best way forward for the country? The insulting answer, sadly, is because, as far as Key is concerned, they are too scared to think for themselves. In short, they have been frightened into compliance. “Stop ruling by fear.” Key bluntly demands of Ardern’s government.
It is as well Key declined to govern New Zealand with the ham-fistedness on display in this opinion-piece. Had he done so, it is doubtful his time in office would have lasted eight years. With the considerable political finesse he demonstrated as prime minister, Key could have achieved so much more. An essay clearly intended to be constructive, filled with the agreeable optimism that made New Zealanders vote for him again and again, would likely have prompted a grateful phone-call from the Prime Minister – maybe even an invitation to toss some ideas around. The effort carried in Sunday’s newspapers, however, merited no more than it received – a good hard slap from Covid Response Minister, Chris Hipkins.
It turned out to be a small thing after all.
*Chris Trotter has been writing and commenting professionally about New Zealand politics for more than 30 years. He writes a weekly column for interest.co.nz. His work may also be found at http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com.
187 Comments
I enjoy the multi-lingual aspect of New Zealand society. There are probably about a quarter of a million Manderin and the same number of Hindi speakers in the country, if I where in a public office or a chief executive I'd get brushing up on a little even just as a courtesy gesture.
I actually had quiet admiration for Key, in that he stood aside from politics once he left. Very few ex-politicians have the discipline to do so.
And as it turns out, neither has he.
Let's not forget that (Sir) John Key is very, very good at one thing; and one thing only - jumping all ships before they go down, and so looking after 'what’s good for John Key'.
Really?? I think the timing of his resignation and his associations at the time paint a more accurate picture of reality. His wife may have also been putting him under pressure as a result of the same assosociations, but his resignation was dressed up for public consumption into something the people could think was plausible. This is how the jigsaw pieces fit in my opinion.
Notice how he is back right on queue after being silent for exactly 4 years and the coast maybe clear.
John Key is yesterday's man. But there are still a few Key-cultists out there; it would do the rest of us all a big favour if he could pied-piper them off to some very remote promised land where they can practice unbridled capitalism among themselves. Guatamala would be a good choice.
In terms of the energy and resource streams - in other words, the material flows without which there is NO economy, Key was parasitic. He contributed nothing, in a physical sense - as indeed many of us in this era of temporary surplus energy, contribute nothing.
That is changing.
Rendering much of this discussion obsolete.
Whether he is stepping in to stem the National disintegration, though, is a valid question.
In the last 20 years the property market has been the hottest under Arden ( with her “let’s cool the market by targeting a tiny slice of the buyers” policy ), in second place we have Helen Clark, Bill English comes in at third with John Key having the lowest house price inflation in recent history under his watch. How did you conclude that Key ignited a property ponzi?
I remember going to a seminar with him maybe 8 years ago where he steadfastly told the audience there were no issues with our property and housing market at all. Then a year or two later National started market some changes to brake the market, which Labour are now ramping up.
But you just go pretending the short sharp shift of the last couple of years isnt largely due to pandemic monetary response ramping up the pre existing issues.
Key was the master of the back flip or maybe he always had early onset of some kind.
See this speech from very early on, in the end he saying there was no issue with housing. What changed?
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0708/S00336/key-speech-to-new-zealand…
I do take the point that Robertson is very wet behind the ears in allowing the Reserve Bank to drive such inequality on his watch as a Labour Finance Minister
Wikipedia is a great resource when comparing the achievements/actions of different governments in NZ. For each different administration they summarise 'Significant policies'. It makes for very interesting reading/comparison;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_National_Government_of_New_Zealand
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_Labour_Government_of_New_Zealand
This is such an unbalanced piece of writing.
What's wrong with having another opinion? Why should we accept what Labour is doing is the right way of doing things?
Why do former PMs need to support the current PM?
At the very least Sir John Key has a plan and is not afriad to share it, unlike the current PM who just smiles and locks people down without a plan.
Exactly. The reality is that an open border & elimination are mutually exclusive. In that you can have one but not the other. Many businesses both exporters & tourism rely on an open border. They need to know the strategy as this effects their decision making process. If there is no intention on opening the border post vaccination the govt should come out & say this. Instead they are pussy footing around the issue.
Further many Kiwi's have family overseas. If they are not going to open the border then these people deserve to know. That way they can relocate if they need to for personal reasons.
Good on John Key for calling the current govt our over the issue. The "wait & see" approach gets tiresome after 18 months.
i read his piece and while i agree with some of it some i don't, and it is good to have another voice and opinion
we do need to sort out the border, we need to bring in antigen fast testing an hour before you get on and when you get off the plane a PCR test, you will need to be double vaxed, and bring in home quarantine with proper tracking, MIQ should now pivot to the unvaxed and people coming from very high risk counties, why is someone from the islands, WA , queensland, with no covid in the community going through MIQ
i was not surprised that he has stepped in as national gets overtaken by ACT and even less surprised that the herald published it, whom says our media is unbiased
Closed borders and eradication was the right strategy for the first 12-18 months, it isn't any longer. We had this time to vaccinate and prepare the health system for a surge, we have been too slow in both.
Key is right when he says the lottery system is an embarrassment. People do not spend 2 weeks in quarantine frivolously - predominantly they had to travel for work and family and had little choice, could have been trying to get home for months.
The 23,000 who missed a spot in the lead up to Xmas is a lot of tax and spending the country needs - the team of 5m can pick up the ever-growing tab.
They do have a plan which they have communicated quite clearly, and that is to get vax rates up and gradually ease restrictions as it makes sense. A plan does not have to have percentages or dates attached, in fact doing so for a situation that is constantly evolving would actually be quite stupid.
If you say "I plan to go to America when Covid is over", you have a plan. If you say "we will open up more when it is safe to do so", you also have a plan. If you say "we will open up when we reach 70% vax no matter what new evidence we see from other countries and no matter what new strains there are", you are an idiot.
I think Labour have a bit more detail in their plans than you do. Labour plan to open up by vaccinating. They have repeatedly stated 90% as their goal but have not made that a set in stone level due to the new evidence that is coming through on an almost daily basis. At this stage, setting a vax % wouldn't really help anyone anyway as we don't know when/if we will make that %.
I like the idea of short term plans based on the current evidence (I actually think they should set a date that they take Auckland back to level 2 for example), but long term plans about opening up the border etc don't seem as possible or necessary.
90% is ambitious, and probably somewhat optimistic too. How many countries have reached 90% vaccination? My concern is that they're dangling this 90% carrot whilst knowing it is very unlikely 90% will be reached. And when it isn't reached they'll say, "We're not at 90% yet." Could go on like this for quite some time....
well Jimbo- a plan with no timeframes, no outcomes, no measures is called an idea or a concept - not a plan
i can assure you the pandemic plans i have to submit to the DHB , ACC, MOH and Dep of C - Have to have numbers in them -- lots of them - very specific numbers and also dates ! In fact i have to specify the minimum number of staff on each shift at each service, the skill mix of those staff, and the number of weeks PPE supplies i have -despite that being a shifting number if we had a Covid Case - I also need to be specific that i have four weeks food for clients and staff alike, that its calorific value is in line with HDSS standards -- and where we would source additional staff if i lose a whole team to MIQ -
Exactly, it means the National party can have a bob each way. If elimination isn't achieved, then John Key told us so. And if it is achieved, then Judith thought elimination was a good idea. I like how John criticised Labour, but didn't mention that National also support elimination (or do they not anymore, god who knows?)
While I largely agree with most of the criticism both of the article and of JK, let's face it there is an element of basic truth here. NZ cannot keep it's borders shut indefinitely. We have to open up to enable travel and trade, and that will be predicated on vaccinations that are effective at controlling the impact of the disease, so not only do people need to get vaccinated, we also need to look for a booster that will deal to the mutations. But as another commenter has indicated, we must also look to see the Government lift restrictions as these goals are met, and not use some weak excuse to continue to exercise this type of power.
Stop being so judgmental just because he has done well money-wise. You should stop working for money then too. Oh wait, you aren't as wealthy as Key so you deserve being paid for your work more than he does.
I am not saying he got paid to write the opinion piece, just making a point.
He's not saying anything or adding anything of great wisdom. Any guy in a pub has said the same for the last few weeks.
Yet the media and public fawn over a guy who ran run the country up against the wall with 9 years of populist nonsense.
Such vision...broken health system, dirty rivers, run down infrastructure, housing (not a) crisis, mass immigration.
Short memories. If it were Nth Korea as he thinks he would be down a coal mine.
All of them. Including Key who really ramped it up.
Much of what is failing now is due to his short term populism. He had massive public support from across society and he did what???
He had 9 years to create a legacy. His legacy was mass immigration and huge environmental damage, run down services and infrastructure.
He failed...yet the tribe still honour him.
And he's been gone for years, yet people still want to put a blow-torch to him more than hold the current, in-power government to any sort of account, and any such attempt to is met with the sneering and pathetic 'nine long years' garbage, as if it's a defence for their own incompetence or bait-and-swtich electoral policies.
apart from his knighthood he left no legacy behind, he did nothing , every other PM and finance minster has, even some third party leaders used their capital to create something, is that not the aim to get in there get some say and do something that you will be remembered for he wasted his time and political capital and achieved nothing, he will only be remembered for awkward handshakes and peeing in the shower on radio
from muldoon think big oil industry, lange nuclear free, roger douglas GST reforms, bolger treaty settlements, rrichardson mother of all budgets cutting the dole. jim anderton kiwibank, mcullen kiwisaver, Helen clark WFF, even winston peters will be remembered for his gold card and Dame Tariana Turia for whanau ora, gee even tim shadbolt has uilt an airport and len brown built a train line
So Dame Turia for Whanau Ora, but not Key who was PM at the time? Being the Govt that actually greenlit the CRL? Openly stating as PM he would vote in favour of same-sex marriage? Do people think before they type this sort of garbage?
But what I love the most is that compared to the current government, the Key era was one of swift and decisive action, with attempts to reign in a bloated civil service, build infrastructure and at least attempting some intervention in the housing market, even if it wasn't ultimately enough to turn the tide.
How can the gov't be expected to know when the border will reopen? They'll be looking at vaccination rates, the global progress of the disease and so on. To make a date and stick to it regardless of the circumstances would be stupid; to make a date knowing you'll probably have to change it anyway would be even worse, because you'd give people a false sense of certainty.
I am not at all a fan of this Labour government, but the National Party seems determined to beclown itself every time they talk about Covid policy. They'd be doing much better if they had someone capable of being calm and objective (Reti?) in charge.
How can they be expected to know? Well they're the ones who would be making that decision and announcing it, so quite easily I would have thought.
Plus, they have already signposted the borders will loosen early next year. Setting a date might motivate those who would otherwise not be able to travel to get a jab.
Frankly the idea we can't do this but we can leave our biggest city in week-to-week limbo to find out if businesses can even trade is absurd.
Also Key hasn't been a National Party MP for several years now. I know this is hard for some people to understand but he's not even the most recent National Prime Minister.
I completely agree. I have only had one vaccination. Why? Because I booked the FIRST available appointment to get vaccinated AS SOON AS my age group became eligible for a vaccine which was after this Level 4 lockdown began. Jacinda and her government have completely failed the country with their roll-out and they ought to be held accountable. Will I vote for Labour at the next election? Absolutely not.
Which point in the last 16 months do you think it would've been a good idea to throw the gates to the border wide open?
Because it seems like this is a question which the only sensible answer for most of that period is "not right now".
Its like a kid asking "are we there yet?".
I couldn't disagree more with you Chris Trotter, at a time when the current government is stripping individual freedom and is imposing that there is only "their way" to deal with Covid, it is wonderful to have someone with enough courage to offer a different perspective, i.e. "a way to reopen up the country and end lockdowns".
Auckland has now had 129 days of lockdown (and the rest of NZ much less). Compared to right wing "lets open up" England with 213 days. And we wouldn't even be in this lockdown if it wasn't for the stupid trans Tasman bubble that the likes of Key thought was a great idea.
Yes it sucks for businesses. But there is no alternative which doesn't suck except for the current strategy of getting the vax rate as high as possible and then opening up more.
Sorry Chris Trotter but the "woeful opinion piece" is yours written above.
It is terribly one eyed towards the current government
You repeatedly attempt to link J Key to the National party when he actually speaks as a NZ (high profile) citizen
You seem unable or unwilling to consider an alternative view from the one and only "lockdown and close the country" option which, it seems in your opinion, no one is entitled to challenge
My point is that it can be childish and counterproductive to demand certainty.
Would you trust a doctor who put you on medications when you reached an arbitrary age, for the sake of sticking to a plan? Or would you rather they assess your actual physical state at a given time and exercise their judgment?
And no, I'm not Jacinda. I think this government has been catastrophically bad on almost every front *except* Covid strategy.
You are right, a plan should not be followed blindly. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't make the plan known.
A doctor would say, at x age, it would be normal to look into a course of y medication for Z reason. You could then yea/nay that plan.
The difference is, that we are not being given the plan at all.
Exactly, the partisan nature of it is disappointing.
And it's quite disingenuous in arguing that there is no meaningful basis for significant criticism of the govt on account of it being emergency times where everyone has to be unified. I thought that was especially lame.
I think Hendy did fine with the modelling. I guess he knows his stuff. But the blatant use of the 'middle' number (7000) instead of the probable number (2200) in reporting/announcing the modelling was highly disingenuous at the least and fear mongering at the worst.
But is the probable number what we really need to know? People have very poor comprehension of statistics, to simplify it you need to make assumptions about what is important to them. If I say "the most likely outcome is that 2200 will die, but there is also a fairly reasonable chance that 7000 will die, and its even slightly possible that Covid will wipe us all out", most people would be more interested in the second piece of info: a reasonable estimate of the "worstish case".
Its just like if there was a 30% chance that we get bombed tomorrow, I wouldn't want to not hear about it just because the most likely case is that we don't.
The likelihood of 7,000 dying is statistically lower than the 2,200. The 2,200 is the most probably and likely outcome. So that is the number to use.
To use the "worstish case" is fearmongering by definition. What if they had announced "bestish" case, which was lower than 2,200... We are told to use the facts and believe the truth. But the reality is the truth is manipulated and presented in an un-truthful way.
As always, do the digging yourself, and treat anything from the 1pm as fully narrated and PR vetted for maximum political gain.
australia has a death rate of 1.25% 99074 cases 1234 deaths and the good news is it does look like vaccination has peaked the daily cases in NSW and the daily total is on the way down and no one bats an eyelid for the deaths, 12 today. they will be opening up soon so we can watch from here to see what happens
Coronavirus Australia: Latest data on COVID-19 updates (smh.com.au)
It's all fun and games until someone interferes with your short trip to your favourite Hawaiian golf course.
I think you can read the column as Sir Key having a tantrum and throwing his weight around after getting stuck in back half of the MIQ lobby like a normal person. That's probably not fair but I agree with CT if he's going to open with poor metaphors without introducing his points he's probably not that serious.
Ah yes the comment that suggests that all overseas travel is for rich people staying in luxury resorts.
How about the parents that want to take their kids overseas to meet their ailing grand-parents? Oh yes we don't mention these people has it goes against the narrative. Be kind!
Do you really think that column was written to help you? Some people important to Key possibly himself are being inconvenienced* by the MIQ situation he wants it changed, it could be lobbying for business. He's not close to being serious or coherent enough to be presenting an argument for an alternative direction, this was put together on the fly with existing ideas in a hurry.
*Edit: I'm not intending to call your situation an inconvenience.
Good points.
Do you really think the article was written by Key?
it reads straight like an article by Oliver Hartwich and the NZ Initiative.... start with a nice story about something to reinforce you are clever and then drop in the point you are trying to make...rinse and repeat
I have a personal rule of thumb if you don't introduce your main ideas in the opening paragraph your not serious and relying on entertainment or emotive framing to try to make your reader more receptive and less critical of your points (its mostly used by weekly columnist who were struggling for good ideas that week and if I had to do their job i would struggle too). When you spend the first half of your column on metaphor and insults well...
I think he wrote the majority of it but I'm sure he had help and an editor. I don't think a group would have let that much petty disappointment and annoyance though to the published copy. It is sufficiently out of touch that the help was from the Initiative or similar.
Regards MIQ 14 day stays for Kiwi's returning who were already Vaccinated. What is the sense of that compared to this: My neighbour flies for Air NZ. Pre-vaccination each week he stayed 3 days in Quarantine was tested and then released. Now for 2 months post vaccination he comes off his overseas flight--no test (like Auckland Truck Drivers at the border) and is back home in 3 hrs and free to run about as though he never left the country. Tell me the sense of that, and why everyone else has to spend 14 days in Quarantine.
What's you point? Those were my best guess on where you were going with that. I suggested he was getting emotional over missing out on MIQ privileges. A lot of people will be in a similar situation and have similar emotions but don't have the platform or managed to control theirs. There are very few people who have clout to get the published in multiple papers and he used it to publish that, I don't think I would have let anyone else off if they were not rich.
maybe he was reflecting the 33000 people who registered last week for the first MIQ lottery -- or the even larger numbers who dont have the emotional energy to continue being rejected in their quest to come home to their own country -
No matter if you agree with MIQ or not -- all these people have a right to come home - and this government has failed in its obligation to make that happen -- even if that meant creating three times as many MIQ spots -- it needed to get its people home -- yet we hear on teh podium this is New Zealand we dont leave anyopne behind regardless of age ethnicity or any other difference -- such as currently being stuck overseas ......
Being wealthy isn't a crime, people get downright pissed off when wealthy people expect better treatment.
It is reasonable to have the discussion of where we draw the line between lives saved and economic cost. It's a bit muddled but the government is trying to do that with their projections of death tolls at different vaccination levels.
Articles like John Key's completely ignore any potential death toll and put the economy, and reading between the lines, personal convenience first, but don't discuss where they think the line should be.
If you actually read the article, his entire argument about opening up is contingent on vaccinating more people and how to make that happen as quickly as possible.
But feel free to mischaracterise his argument as 'lives vs the economy' as if there's no economic consequences to haphazard lockdowns which we're told is contingent on a flat-lining vaxx rate.
Amidst all the waffling about Apollo 13, John Key makes 5 suggestions:
1) Give Māori and Pacific health providers a financial incentive for every person they get vaccinated in the next six weeks.
2) Give every person aged between 12-29 a $25 voucher of their choice if they get vaccinated before December 1.
3) Allow only vaccinated people into licensed premises (and maybe park the Shot Bro bus outside a few nightclubs as an incentive).
4) Tell New Zealanders when borders will re-open. It might incentivise more people to get jabbed.
5) Stop ruling by fear. Instead, reassure people that living with the virus is possible, as long as you’re vaccinated. Take positive actions like funding Pharmac to invest in therapies proven to help fight the virus, build up our hospital capacity and workforce, use saliva testing for Covid, subsidise home-Covid testing kits and order booster shots now.
1. Is reasonable.
2. Is nothing new, others have asked before this article and Grant Robertson spoke to the difficulty of whether you'd have to backdate to the already vaccinated.
3. This is what they're doing overseas (e.g. restaurants in some American cities), so a reasonable suggestion.
4. This is the whole lives vs the economy argument. By setting a date you're saying after that date, regardless of where vaccination rates are we're going to reopen. The government's current approach of modelling death rates at different vaccination levels, and targeting a vaccination level rather than an arbitrary calendar date seems superior to me.
5. On the one hand you have "business leaders" telling the government to do risk assessments. On the other you tell them off for doing modelling that's a direct input to risk assessments. It sounds like John Key is one of those people that likes risk assessments as long as they tell him what he wanted to hear. My take is he'd be telling Professor Hendy to redo his modelling, or just hide the report.
So he brings a few reasonable suggestions (1, 2 & 3) - but none are new or novel, and are no doubt all things that are being considered already.
Key is actually helping the government. Not by giving them advice, but by saying what a lot of the country is starting to think. People are starting to get fed up with the way things are rolling so if Key's piece helps light a fire under the government then all the better.
Overall I think the government has done a reasonably good job of handling the crisis but if they continue along the current trajectory they risk undoing their good work. They need to be pushing forward towards opening up the country and returning personal liberty with greater urgency.
66% of the country are enjoying level 2 with no fear of death or sickness. It seems odd that they would prefer something more like England with similar restrictions and 100 Covid deaths a day (scaled to NZ that would be ~10 a day or 3650 a year, and that is after a lot of UK already have immunity). It will be quite hard to convince them of change, at least until vaccination rates are much higher.
Ah yes, the 'we jammed a bunch of MIQ facilities in the largest city and bought it to its knees' is a feature, not a bug argument.
It's funny how there's no possible middle ground between what we have and hundreds of deaths a day. Those are apparently the only two options.
The middle ground is having gotten our shit together earlier with vaccinations and not needing to be locked down again in the first place.
People are very good at picking countries with crappy responses and saying "SEE IT COULD BE WORSE" while refusing to be critical about any aspect of our response at all - they're picking an incredibly low bar to begin with and then claiming anything better than that is a response that cannot possibly be critiqued, even when it doesn't do what it tells people it says it's doing or ignore the independent reports it commissions to head off criticism that it can't respond to.
The awkward moment when Ardern accepts his points as reasonable but runs a defence by claiming a lot of stuff is already in the works under her Govt.
Also, extremely bold from Trotter to tell Key to stay in his lane as a 'former currency trader' given our current PM's background, or lack thereof.
Yes, that was not in good taste, referencing to the 'currency trader' past. His recent past is that he has been the HoG here for nearly 9 years and has been very popular and also efficient in some ways. He increased the profile of NZ overseas, kept the housing market afloat and helped it to recover well, and faced the challenge from the Internet Party. Imagine if that had taken off ? Key has a good grasp of things that will increase value for all, especially businesses. And his input is to be considered in national crises like this. Why not ?
She was asked about former prime minister John Key's comments on the outbreak over the weekend, specifically on a comment that there's no plan, just hope and luck.
"He is wrong," Ardern told The AM Show when questioned specifically on this wording. Hope and luck has not got us to where we are today, she said. "It was not luck, it was a plan" and every New Zealander has played a role in that, she said.
Ardern said they hope to avoid lockdowns in the future
I mean really, does anyone actually listen to her contradict herself?
I mean really, does anyone actually listen to her contradict herself?
Have you actually tried listening to her, she doesn't even use complete sentences, and is expert at staying "on message" and not ever saying anything definitive.
Really she is a masterclass in using lots of words to fill in the space and avoid making actual statements.
She is an expert propagandist!
JK forgot to congratulate JA for her good work (& RBNZ) supercharging the property market post 1st lockdown. After all, high property prices is a sign of a successful economy isn't it JK?
I remember when I read that (was it 10 years ago now)?? I though to myself.....this guy has no interest in solving the housing crisis, and now here we are!!
Although I think he has a valid opinion and I think he made some good points, I'll never get my head around that statement. Showed a very short sighted view on stability, no wonder he bailed when he did.
I think John Key might be stretching it going for a 5 point plan, based on the success of his 4 point plan post-election promise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWPgoAI1cLE
At the end of it, his measure was taken, and found wanting.
It would be a horrific world if science alone ruled. Remember that sort of thinking eventually led to eugenics and associated extremes.
Shouting about "the science" simply doesn't cut it. There are other considerations in a civilised democratic society, and always have been.
The best takeaway from Key's piece is that he has referenced David Seymour. That is a hint to National Party members to ditch Judith and get some one with the same charisma and precocity as David Seymour to lead National. What he has directed to Jacinda is not that revolutionary, so Jacinda may adopt some of it, especially the incentivising of vaccination among the skeptics.
May be Jacinda should also give a bucket of KFC to those who have already been fully vaccinated ?
There are so many obvious ways to crank up the vaccine numbers. Just have food trucks giving out free food (kebabs/burgers/sushi/burritos/whatever) to people after they've had their vaccines and people will be there in droves. Enlist a few All Blacks/Black Caps/Silver Ferns to be at the vaccine centres, appropriately masked up and socially distanced of course, and there will be a ton of extra attendees. Throw in a lucky draw to give away some memorabilia and it'll be even more popular. Or enlist well know musicians to play at vaccine centres etc etc.
All these cost money, but it turns out that lockdowns aren't cheap either!
The voice of the lock down liberal left. Living their best lives under Covid19. Same income with less work if they are lucky. No work if they are really lucky. Not to be confused with the working class. Struggling on reduced incomes and afraid to get tested. Just in case they are positive and get taken away to Covid jail so they can no longer work at all and provide for their families.
Easy to make bold proposals when you're not an incumbent running for re-election. Prime Minister Ardern doesn't want to be seen as firmly pro- or anti-vax. Labour could expend a lot of political capital on various carrot and stick approaches that would likely end up only alienating working class voters.
Don`t mind reading Chris Trotter sometimes but I would like to know if Chris has anyone caught up in this whole MIQ shambles that`s creating a whole lot of long term anguish for this country in so many ways.
There needs to be more information out there on when and where people can move again.
Mr Trotter's epistle is pure reactional leftism. That's who they are. They wait until someone says something then they tear into them. That's how they operate. No real plans. No real solutions. No real leadership. just knee-jerk reactions. Oil & gas. Guns. Kiwibuild. More taxes. More debt. More central govt control. More lockdowns.
Chris was obviously struggling with this weeks topic, until he read the sunday papers. Bingo. John Key attack. How dare he criticise our Jacinda. It'll rile up the interest.co. posters too. Job done.
You talk about Labour following an evidence based strategy, yet they are using the elimination strategy which has failed everywhere else in the world.
Not to mention even if we did eliminate Delta we are still stuck here with closed borders waiting for the rest of the world to eliminate Covid.
Labour has been entirely reactive with no long term vision at all of how this plays out. From the many billions spent on Covid so far, how much has really been spent on upgrading hospitals to cope? I think I saw today there are only 12 people with Covid in hospitals, and only 4 of those in ICU yet the hospitals are still saying they are at capacity.
A weeks worth of wage subsidy would have paid for a whole new hospital in the South Auckland area for example that could be dedicated to Covid initially, but that process should have started 18 months ago.
'Smug Hermit Kingdom,' 'North Korea Option.' 'Team of 5 million.'
Cue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEaKX9YYHiQ
Go Team NZ.
JK had some valid points though.
After all, what is our post-covid roadmap besides a few presentation slides they showed some time ago?
Denmark didn't reopen overnight; they prepared their people and country medically, socially and psychologically. Singapore has prepared for the reopening, though they are still getting through the fear and confusion with the rising caseload.
Suddenly, our government starts talking about this 90% vaccination rate target. Vaccination is vital, but the vaccination itself might not be enough to counter the inevitable caseload rise, that's why Singapore and Denmark prepared the medical system for it. Singapore has a 4-level covid care system with 1000 ICU beds, where are we with the covid capacity?
Is the 90% vaccination rate even realistic??
Chris often comes up with elegant essays, but this wasn't one of them. Totally over the top shrill nonsense.
But having said that, if one was looking for a sensible overview of Labour's covid record or for a measured comment on alternative strategies to come, Key didn't add much of value.
It is probably too soon to evaluate Labour's overall performance although judging from polls a majority of NZers think they haven't done too badly.
In my humble opinion I think the Government are, deliberately or incidentally trying to create myths, along the lines that the first Labour Government "saved NZ from the horrors of the Great Depression"
In reality, I think they will be found wanting. Firstly the Department of Health (their telegenic boss not withstanding) were very slow and adhoc off the mark. One would have assumed SARS and other close calls would have meant they would have had readily to hand, a pandemic response plan.
Secondly despite constant repetition by Dear Leader, NZ certainly didn't ..."Go hard & fast". More "bumble and confusion! "
Thirdly I think they will be castigated by future historians for politicizing the emergency. (Never let a disaster go to waste!) A pandemic of covid potential would surely have been the moment (as in WW2) to form a Pandemic Cabinet with members of all parties represented, & totally separate from the ordinary Cabinet charged with doing all the routinel tasks of government.
No Chris, get off your high horse, there are bigger fish to fry than Key.
JK is making reasonable suggestions such as 1) we need a clear plan with dates to unlock NZ, 2) we need to use incentives to increase vaccinations
JA was unable to provide any details or dates, answering Ryan's questions with " we hope to..." "our intention is ..." "the modelling shows..." and finally "we cannot give you a definite number of vaccinated people or a date to end lockdowns or start re-opening the borders
Even WINston is tearing into Jacinda for being useless.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-winston-peters-sa…
Chris, your article appears to be an attack on the person rather than dissecting John Key’s 5 point plan and stating what you don’t like about it.
Instead you provided no details about his plan. That is disappointing as I thought his five point plan was excellent.
I hope my son will be allowed to return to NZ some day but he can’t get a Managed Isolation booking. I guess you are not interested in improving the system otherwise you might have commented on how it could be improved.
For those of you that want to know what John’s 5 point plan was, please find it here.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12474505
'I thought his five-point plan was excellent.'
Yes but so was his 4 point 2007 pre-election plan, and he blew it. There was no more opportune time to stabilize the NZ housing market than at the bottom of a recession in 2009, but he did nothing.
The quality of the idea is not in question, just his ability to deliver.
Uh oh
once a politician always a politician, do not let facts get in the way of a rant
Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer has categorically denied former prime minister John Key’s claim that New Zealand could have paid $40 million for earlier access to its Covid-19 vaccine, saying the notion is “incorrect and baseless”.
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