Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes so far. Update: SBS Bank has raised most of its fixed rates today/
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has raised term deposit rates today.
EASING UP
The Government has announced some significant relaxation in our pandemic rules. Gathering limits will be loosened from this weekend. Vaccine passes and some mandates to be removed from April 5. (But it seems likely most people will shift there sooner.)
HOUSEHOLD BUDGETS TO BE CRIMPED
ASB economists see a -$15 bln hit to local household budgets this year, with housing costs spiking +8%. They estimate average household living costs will rise by $150 per week from here - that is almost $8000 in a year if sustained.
ANOTHER GREEN-WASHED BOND
A- rated Spark Finance has launched a new $100 mln 6½ year "sustainability-linked unsecured, unsubordinated medium term bond issue". It will be priced at 4.37% pa.
UNEXPECTED EXTRA SERVICING COST
[Revised] The Treasury has put a $5 bln price tag on the Reserve Bank's QE program in its 2022 Investment Statement. When the RBNZ launched the bond-buying program in 2020, the Treasury thought the premium the RBNZ would pay, buying the bonds on the secondary market, would be offset by the program lowering the government's overall debt servicing costs. However, with interest rates rising faster than expected, this hasn't materialised, and the Treasury now expects the program to come at a net cost of $5 bln.
LOTS OF FRAUD AROUND
More than 10% of all Australians experienced one or more types of personal fraud in 2020-21 according to an official survey. That is more than 2.1 mln people there. The survey asked about experiences of personal fraud including card fraud, identity theft, and selected types of scams.
GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trading, gold is down -US$14 from this time yesterday at just under US$1920/oz.
EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The S&P500 ended their Tuesday session up +1.1% and holding the mid-morning gains for the rest of the day. Tokyo has opened today up +2.2% on top of yesterday's good rise. Hong Kong has started up +0.6% and heading for a 3 week high. Shanghai has started their session little-changed. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in early afternoon trade. But the NZX50 is down -1.0% in late trade with chunky losses for FPH (-7.3%) and FBU (-1.4%) wrecking today's session.
SWAP ELEVATOR STILL GOING UP
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to have risen sharply today, maybe by another +4 bps across the curve. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.58%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is up +8 bps at 2.79% from this this time yesterday. The China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp at 2.85%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 3.36% (up +6 bps) and still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 3.34% (up +7 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 2.42% and up another +10 bps from this time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR TURNS HIGHER
The Kiwi dollar is now at 69.6 USc and up more than -¾c than at this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up more than +½c at 63.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now just over 74.8 and a +70 bps rise in the last 24 hours.
BITCOIN UP
Bitcoin is up +2.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$42,107. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.7%.
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67 Comments
ASB economists see a -$15 bln hit to local household budgets this year, with housing costs spiking +8%. They estimate average household living costs will rise by $150 per week from here - that is almost $8000 in a year if sustained.
This is all share of wallet to be "lost" in consumption. Based on my professional experience, the first to be hit will be the 'nice to have' products on the supermarket shelves. All the crafty, cottage-like businesses are going to find it tough.
The big yellow and black sheds are run by a NZ owned co-op. All the profits are returned to the shop owners who buy off the co-op. On a level playing field the Aussie owned company, which coincidentally also owns K-Mart and Bunnings, cannot compete. I cannot understand why anyone would buy off a more expensive foreign owned outfit. I have been involved in many businesses, however, where the shareholders and other directors work out the correct thing to do, and then do the opposite. That can be the only reason for supporting these foreign owned businesses. But takeaways will be okay. People will still go out if they are poorer than they were, but will just go cheaper. So all restaurant patrons will just go down one or two layers of expensiveness. McDonalds was invented as a place for poor people to go out for a feed. But that appears to have changed from my infrequent visits. Last time I had to fight my way past crowds of people gathered round big screenie things to get to the counter and put my order in with the kid there. Luckily I have a proper locally owned fish and chip shop around the corner from home for normal takeaways. If there actually is such a thing.
For anyone looking for an inflation hedge, the FOOD exchange traded fund from the ASX might be an option.
Share price is currently very bullish. Has exposure to global agriculture/fertiliser/producers etc.
Not financial advice, just an option for anyone looking for a liquid way of having some protection against inflation vs cash savings and diversifying assets.
- Vaccine passes may be used again in the future if circumstances change, including if a new variant emerges.
- Businesses can continue to use vaccine passes if they wish.
- People are encouraged to keep vaccine passes on their phones.
No doubt people are going to get caught out by that odd establishment that will demand a vaccine pass - why not just drop it everywhere!?
How long is this going to last too? They seem clear there could be another variant.
Clear as mud. The difference in Traffic lights, is now just mask wearing. Mostly, many, encouraged. But it's ok, the unvaxxed teachers can go back to work now....
I mean was it really worth terminating people (i.e. permanently removing from the job) for ~3 months. Careers, relationships, and more have been ruined. Should have just stood them down on covid pay for the duration. Would have diffused much of the animosity.
But hey, at least our overstated deaths with covid are less than everyone elses overstated deaths with covid. So we win, right?
More like a 2000 death deficit. No lives were saved - that is just team $55 million BS. We have been in excess death for the past 18 months.
https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/
What is spurious about https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/ ? I didn't pick the baseline or reference method so not sure what your point is. Quite evident that we have been in excess death these past 18 months. Perhaps click on the link and have a look for yourself?
Given median age of death with covid is higher than average life expectancy in the UK/Oz etc. so age standardisation data for NZ may not give you the answer you are looking for. Perhaps deferred mortality might be a better angle for you?
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-a…
Yes meaningless Covid mortality rates because:
- if you die from a car crash and happened to be positive, you're a Covid death.
- if you die from cancer and happen to be positive, you're a covid death
- if you die from any cause at all and you have Covid, which many have in NZ, you're added to the meaningless Covid deaths numbers
It's even worse than that. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics' definition, which is the one used by NZ's MoH, it only needs to be a suspected case of COVID-19. The deceased never even needed to have tested positive.
The whole thing is completely insane.
Looking at the hospitalisation stats from the government. It looks as though unvaccinated are over represented in hospital, as you would expect (19% of cases from 5% of population), but so are the boosted. A similar percentage of boosted (37%) and double jabbed (34%) are in hospital yet a lower percentage of the population is boosted (61.7%) than double jabbed (95%) Am I reading this right?
Well, we let people who believe in none, one, many Gods, vote for a different party than ourselves, identify differently than ourselves, so I'm not sure what your objection is?
After all, if what they are teaching is math, 2 + 2 = 4 irrespective of anything else you may think.
Exactly. I got my kids' teachers to teach them the facts, and I teach them the opinions. I am not interested in teachers' opinions. That is why we have to have concrete syllabuses (syllabi?) to stop that happening. And so we know what we are up against when our kids bring home rubbish that teachers have given them as facts.
Given teachers are going to be teaching NZ history from now on, I'd be very concerned about the framing from that from people prone imported alt-right hysteria and conspiracy theories.
I'm also not super confident I'd like hospitals to be staffed by people who think they have some sort innate right to spread disease amongst vulnerable people.... seem kind of like it might not be the best career for them.
As far as Law and Order goes, we've probably reached the stage where beggars can't be choosers, but per the recent ruling there was an extremely small number of police in this position anyway.
does not help us in healthcare - currently laying off admittedly a small number of healthy staff double vacced but who have drawn the line at boosters - especially with talk of a fourth shot shortly -- but its ok - i can bring back household contacts with a rat test - or even covid positive staff into the workplace -- total madness that - and those staff are never coming back already leaving our shores for Aussie and teh EU -- to carry on tehir careers!
kpn, glad you have weathered the storm so far. hope you still have some hair & ceiling panels left. the one thing that shines indisputably from this covid episode is firstly how ill prepared NZ was and secondly how pathetic and abysmal our bureaucracy was in rising to the challenge. Not the front line staff at all, but the shiny arses. You know how Airline pilots are paid so much so as to be the saviour in that mid air emergency. Instead in my opinion we had an obdurate, arrogant and incompetent lot in HQ directing matters about which they were operationally clueless. Something has to be done but this government is now dismantling the front line and substituting it with even more power in this same Wellington lot.
Deltacron is a thing. Think delta with the infectivity of omicron, only tempered by high levels of natural immunity overseas.
I'm thinking I will walk out of places asking for my vaccine pass on principle:
1. That they asked for them at the counter after you've been in line with everyone breathing on the food made a joke of the whole thing
2. The government says they are no longer needed. I accepted it (grudgingly) when it was a blanket thing, now it's optional I can vote with my feet.
He's probably still posting here under a different name. Like TTP, having a few personas going exposing different levels of support for the housing market and predictions allows them to switch to the ones that are most aligned with what the data is doing. Either that or some serious Pulp Fiction action has gone down in that basement ...
Indeed. Do your sums on rolling over loans at 7-8%, mass inflation on all costs, no depreciation credit, no more interest only, and having to increasingly pay tax on all rental income. When its put like that, all in one sentence, it shows how bad the addiction to tax free gain had become for the speculators.
Popcorn...
Indian Punchline throws yet another twist into the tangled yarn of international relationships. Short version: not gonna bow to US pressure....
"The point is, India struggled with the pandemic all by itself. No matter the hype about it, India realised that it has no real partnership with the US or EU, that it was a mere transactional relationship — and that in the final analysis, India lived in its region.
Indeed, India handled the pandemic far better than most countries. International experts acknowledge it today, and those who threw stones at that time grudgingly accept it, too."
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