Nick Smyth
NZD continues to hug the US64 cent level. Markets have a “glass half full” view of trade talk headlines. Eyes on RBNZ's FSR and new employment indicators
22nd Nov 19, 8:00am
NZD continues to hug the US64 cent level. Markets have a “glass half full” view of trade talk headlines. Eyes on RBNZ's FSR and new employment indicators
Eyes on US Fed minutes but surprises not expected. NZD steady, despite some vestiges of risk aversion. Forecasts for 2019/20 milk price lifted
21st Nov 19, 7:56am
Eyes on US Fed minutes but surprises not expected. NZD steady, despite some vestiges of risk aversion. Forecasts for 2019/20 milk price lifted
Global rates fall modestly, S&P500 unchanged. Market shrugs off “dovish” RBA minutes from yesterday. NZD top performing currency over the past 24 hours
20th Nov 19, 7:58am
Global rates fall modestly, S&P500 unchanged. Market shrugs off “dovish” RBA minutes from yesterday. NZD top performing currency over the past 24 hours
Global rates fall modestly after report China was pessimistic about a trade deal. GBP rising on UK election polls. Positive local data doesn't move many needles
19th Nov 19, 7:49am
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Global rates fall modestly after report China was pessimistic about a trade deal. GBP rising on UK election polls. Positive local data doesn't move many needles
New record highs for US equities as Kudlow implies Phase-One talks in the final stages. NZD ends the week just above 0.64 supported by a rebound in PMI, RBNZ Hawkesby comments
18th Nov 19, 7:45am
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New record highs for US equities as Kudlow implies Phase-One talks in the final stages. NZD ends the week just above 0.64 supported by a rebound in PMI, RBNZ Hawkesby comments
US-China trade optimism drives Dow Jones to record high, global rates higher. NZ rates experience another big move higher yesterday. NZD consolidates about 0.64. RBA expected to keep rates on hold and maintain easing bias today.
5th Nov 19, 8:00am
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US-China trade optimism drives Dow Jones to record high, global rates higher. NZ rates experience another big move higher yesterday. NZD consolidates about 0.64. RBA expected to keep rates on hold and maintain easing bias today.
Fresh record highs for S&P500, NASDAQ after strong payrolls report. Sentiment also boosted as China says a “consensus in principle” achieved on Phase-One trade agreement. USD falls for a fifth day in a row, while NZD consolidates above 0.64.
4th Nov 19, 9:27am
Fresh record highs for S&P500, NASDAQ after strong payrolls report. Sentiment also boosted as China says a “consensus in principle” achieved on Phase-One trade agreement. USD falls for a fifth day in a row, while NZD consolidates above 0.64.
Equities and bond yields fall after reports that a US-China ‘Phase-Two’ agreement will be difficult. USD weakens sharply after Powell says the hurdle for Fed hikes is very high. NZ rates rise as market pares back November OCR cut pricing to 50%.
1st Nov 19, 8:35am
Equities and bond yields fall after reports that a US-China ‘Phase-Two’ agreement will be difficult. USD weakens sharply after Powell says the hurdle for Fed hikes is very high. NZ rates rise as market pares back November OCR cut pricing to 50%.
Fed cuts 25bps, hints as rate pause – limited reaction so far as market waits for Powell Q&A. Bank of Canada signals easing bias – Canadian dollar and rates drop sharply. Little movement in NZD overnight; ANZ Business Survey this afternoon.
31st Oct 19, 8:23am
Fed cuts 25bps, hints as rate pause – limited reaction so far as market waits for Powell Q&A. Bank of Canada signals easing bias – Canadian dollar and rates drop sharply. Little movement in NZD overnight; ANZ Business Survey this afternoon.
Markets consolidate ahead of FOMC tomorrow morning. UK set for December election – GBP receives initial boost. NZ rates move sharply higher yesterday – some nervousness around a Nov OCR cut.
30th Oct 19, 8:02am
Markets consolidate ahead of FOMC tomorrow morning. UK set for December election – GBP receives initial boost. NZ rates move sharply higher yesterday – some nervousness around a Nov OCR cut.
Global rates and equities higher on trade optimism. GBP supported by EU offer of 3-month Brexit extension. NZD underperforms despite risk-on backdrop.
29th Oct 19, 7:54am
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Global rates and equities higher on trade optimism. GBP supported by EU offer of 3-month Brexit extension. NZD underperforms despite risk-on backdrop.
Optimism for a Brexit deal continues to build (although no news yet) - GBP hits 5 month high. Little movement in global rates and equities overnight. NZD underperforms after RBNZ's. Bascand says “reasonable prospect” of a lower OCR
17th Oct 19, 7:52am
Optimism for a Brexit deal continues to build (although no news yet) - GBP hits 5 month high. Little movement in global rates and equities overnight. NZD underperforms after RBNZ's. Bascand says “reasonable prospect” of a lower OCR
Market sentiment a bit more cautious to start the week. Trading activity light with some international holidays. Partial reversal of last week's move up with bond yields, NZD, AUD all lower
15th Oct 19, 7:53am
Market sentiment a bit more cautious to start the week. Trading activity light with some international holidays. Partial reversal of last week's move up with bond yields, NZD, AUD all lower
US-China agree ‘mini’ trade deal – China buys farm goods, US suspends October tariffs. Brexit optimism continues as EU and UK “intensify” negotiations over weekend – GBP +1.8%. Equities and bond yields head higher, USD weaker
14th Oct 19, 7:55am
US-China agree ‘mini’ trade deal – China buys farm goods, US suspends October tariffs. Brexit optimism continues as EU and UK “intensify” negotiations over weekend – GBP +1.8%. Equities and bond yields head higher, USD weaker
Very weak ISM non-manufacturing survey triggers large decline in US rates, fall in USD. Equities plunge, then recover sharply on Fed rate cut expectations. NZD and AUD outperform as risk appetite turns positive
4th Oct 19, 7:57am
Very weak ISM non-manufacturing survey triggers large decline in US rates, fall in USD. Equities plunge, then recover sharply on Fed rate cut expectations. NZD and AUD outperform as risk appetite turns positive
Risk-off market moves: equities and bond yields fall sharply again. NZD outperforms, likely on short-covering. NZ rates make new all-time lows as market starts pricing a chance of -50 bp RBNZ November cut
3rd Oct 19, 8:02am
Risk-off market moves: equities and bond yields fall sharply again. NZD outperforms, likely on short-covering. NZ rates make new all-time lows as market starts pricing a chance of -50 bp RBNZ November cut
US rates, equities, USD fall sharply after a very weak ISM manufacturing survey. AUD weakens after RBA cuts again. NZ OCR rate cut expectations rise after another dire NZ business confidence survey
2nd Oct 19, 7:56am
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US rates, equities, USD fall sharply after a very weak ISM manufacturing survey. AUD weakens after RBA cuts again. NZ OCR rate cut expectations rise after another dire NZ business confidence survey
Equity markets end September on positive note, brushing off reports of US restrictions on Chinese investments. USD strengthens again. NZD falls to fresh four year low after another miserable ANZ business survey
1st Oct 19, 7:56am
Equity markets end September on positive note, brushing off reports of US restrictions on Chinese investments. USD strengthens again. NZD falls to fresh four year low after another miserable ANZ business survey
Equities fall after reports that US had discussed restrictions on US investments in Chinese companies. Yuan falls, but only minor impact on NZD and AUD. Big week ahead: RBA meeting, Chinese PMIs, ISMs, payrolls, QSBO
30th Sep 19, 8:11am
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Equities fall after reports that US had discussed restrictions on US investments in Chinese companies. Yuan falls, but only minor impact on NZD and AUD. Big week ahead: RBA meeting, Chinese PMIs, ISMs, payrolls, QSBO
The ECB cuts rates, resumes QE. The EUR and German bond yields initially fell then moved higher. Market sentiment boosted by positive trade talk news giving both equity markets and the CNY a boost. NZD lower. The global bond sell-off extends
13th Sep 19, 7:54am
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The ECB cuts rates, resumes QE. The EUR and German bond yields initially fell then moved higher. Market sentiment boosted by positive trade talk news giving both equity markets and the CNY a boost. NZD lower. The global bond sell-off extends
The USD strengthens as markets await an ECB decision with new easing measures expected. Equity markets up in anticipation. Global bond yields stable. NZD stable
12th Sep 19, 8:00am
The USD strengthens as markets await an ECB decision with new easing measures expected. Equity markets up in anticipation. Global bond yields stable. NZD stable
NZD unchanged as global bond yields rise again on ECB news. Reports that China had offered to buy more US agricultural goods ahead of the October trade talks also supported rates
11th Sep 19, 8:16am
NZD unchanged as global bond yields rise again on ECB news. Reports that China had offered to buy more US agricultural goods ahead of the October trade talks also supported rates
Markets cautiously optimistic despite the US payrolls weaker than expected. Global equities and US Treasury yields consolidated. The NZD up. NZ rates up sharply across the curve
9th Sep 19, 7:53am
Markets cautiously optimistic despite the US payrolls weaker than expected. Global equities and US Treasury yields consolidated. The NZD up. NZ rates up sharply across the curve
Markets read positive signals from what China is implying rather than saying. Sentiment improves. Safe haven currencies underperform, as does the NZD on weak local data
30th Aug 19, 8:04am
Markets read positive signals from what China is implying rather than saying. Sentiment improves. Safe haven currencies underperform, as does the NZD on weak local data
Global rates have continued to grind lower on growing risk fears. British politics grabs headlines. NZD sinks lower. Eyes on local business confidence survey
29th Aug 19, 7:49am
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Global rates have continued to grind lower on growing risk fears. British politics grabs headlines. NZD sinks lower. Eyes on local business confidence survey