Stephen Toplis
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis says he continues to believe the next move in interest rates will be down 'and that this will possibly occur sooner than the RBNZ expects'
4th Jul 23, 2:18pm
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BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis says he continues to believe the next move in interest rates will be down 'and that this will possibly occur sooner than the RBNZ expects'
BNZ economists say a solid bounce in economic activity is expected in the second half of next year, but in the meantime there is more pain to be felt as the economy bounces along the bottom - torn between rising immigration and higher interest rates
21st Jun 23, 2:04pm
13
BNZ economists say a solid bounce in economic activity is expected in the second half of next year, but in the meantime there is more pain to be felt as the economy bounces along the bottom - torn between rising immigration and higher interest rates
A high rate of migration has offset a steeper decline in New Zealand’s GDP per capita
16th Jun 23, 6:39am
50
A high rate of migration has offset a steeper decline in New Zealand’s GDP per capita
Grant Robertson's decision to reappoint Adrian Orr last year without bipartisan support has opened the bank up to more political criticism despite the role of the monetary policy committee
1st Jun 23, 10:24am
24
Grant Robertson's decision to reappoint Adrian Orr last year without bipartisan support has opened the bank up to more political criticism despite the role of the monetary policy committee
The Reserve Bank says the OCR has gone high enough and recession may be avoided
24th May 23, 6:33pm
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The Reserve Bank says the OCR has gone high enough and recession may be avoided
The Reserve Bank is almost being 'out-hawked' by economists as they bid up the odds of higher interest rates ahead of this week's latest Official Cash Rate decision
22nd May 23, 2:23pm
23
The Reserve Bank is almost being 'out-hawked' by economists as they bid up the odds of higher interest rates ahead of this week's latest Official Cash Rate decision
[updated]
Credit rating agency's budget comments highlight ongoing concerns about NZ's current account deficit; Govt bond issuance revised up $20b over 4 years
18th May 23, 4:23pm
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Credit rating agency's budget comments highlight ongoing concerns about NZ's current account deficit; Govt bond issuance revised up $20b over 4 years
BNZ economists say the Reserve Bank's next move is likely to be heavily influenced by its assumptions of the supply and demand impacts of a net migration inflow that is 'much stronger than anyone believed'
17th May 23, 12:05pm
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BNZ economists say the Reserve Bank's next move is likely to be heavily influenced by its assumptions of the supply and demand impacts of a net migration inflow that is 'much stronger than anyone believed'
BNZ economists say the migration surge is 'great news for moderating wage inflation' but raises questions of how strong population-led growth may become and how this may delay the Reserve Bank easing monetary conditions
3rd May 23, 2:32pm
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BNZ economists say the migration surge is 'great news for moderating wage inflation' but raises questions of how strong population-led growth may become and how this may delay the Reserve Bank easing monetary conditions
BNZ's head of research says the RBNZ should have opted for a smaller Official Cash Rate rise and caution that further rate rises might be needed; approach taken 'will most definitely generate heightened volatility'
6th Apr 23, 8:45am
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BNZ's head of research says the RBNZ should have opted for a smaller Official Cash Rate rise and caution that further rate rises might be needed; approach taken 'will most definitely generate heightened volatility'
NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion shows RBNZ winning inflation battle and causing recession
4th Apr 23, 2:00pm
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NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion shows RBNZ winning inflation battle and causing recession
Reserve Bank expected to keep its inflation fight going despite weaker than expected GDP, cyclone impact & global banking ructions
27th Mar 23, 3:15pm
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Reserve Bank expected to keep its inflation fight going despite weaker than expected GDP, cyclone impact & global banking ructions
'There comes a time when such restraint is no longer necessary. We are definitely approaching that time,' says BNZ head of research
15th Feb 23, 11:35am
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'There comes a time when such restraint is no longer necessary. We are definitely approaching that time,' says BNZ head of research
[updated]
Statistics New Zealand says the unemployment rate has risen to 3.4% from 3.3%; it was widely expected to fall; private sector hourly wage growth has slowed to 8.1% from 8.6% when it was expected to rise: BNZ economists change OCR call
1st Feb 23, 11:01am
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Statistics New Zealand says the unemployment rate has risen to 3.4% from 3.3%; it was widely expected to fall; private sector hourly wage growth has slowed to 8.1% from 8.6% when it was expected to rise: BNZ economists change OCR call
BNZ economists say they think the Reserve Bank would 'prefer' to hike the OCR by just 50 basis points rather than the 75 that is widely expected in the markets
14th Nov 22, 2:46pm
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BNZ economists say they think the Reserve Bank would 'prefer' to hike the OCR by just 50 basis points rather than the 75 that is widely expected in the markets
[updated]
Searing domestic inflation has the financial markets now picking a 75-point rise to the Official Cash Rate from the Reserve Bank next month and a peak OCR of over 5%
18th Oct 22, 11:01am
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Searing domestic inflation has the financial markets now picking a 75-point rise to the Official Cash Rate from the Reserve Bank next month and a peak OCR of over 5%
With a weak NZ dollar harming the outlook for imported inflation, could the RBNZ be tempted to intervene to try and prop the NZ dollar up?
29th Sep 22, 1:15pm
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With a weak NZ dollar harming the outlook for imported inflation, could the RBNZ be tempted to intervene to try and prop the NZ dollar up?
BNZ economists warn of global recession and say the RBNZ should not be increasing its forecasts of how high the Official Cash Rate might go at this stage
27th Sep 22, 2:10pm
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BNZ economists warn of global recession and say the RBNZ should not be increasing its forecasts of how high the Official Cash Rate might go at this stage
With financial markets increasingly expecting interest rates might ease next year, the Reserve Bank may well deliver a strongly 'hawkish' message next week to the effect that now is not the time to ease up on inflation
14th Aug 22, 8:02am
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With financial markets increasingly expecting interest rates might ease next year, the Reserve Bank may well deliver a strongly 'hawkish' message next week to the effect that now is not the time to ease up on inflation
BNZ economists say one of the tricky aspects facing the RBNZ is the 'market' desire to price in interest rate cuts next year
9th Aug 22, 9:17am
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BNZ economists say one of the tricky aspects facing the RBNZ is the 'market' desire to price in interest rate cuts next year
David Hargreaves assesses the possibilities and prospects ahead of the release of labour market data next week that will likely show the country's unemployment rate hitting a new low and the biggest rates of pay rises in well over a decade
31st Jul 22, 6:00am
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David Hargreaves assesses the possibilities and prospects ahead of the release of labour market data next week that will likely show the country's unemployment rate hitting a new low and the biggest rates of pay rises in well over a decade
BNZ economists see unemployment rate falling further and say unless there are soon signs 'the worm is turning' the RBNZ will have to contemplate 'a more aggressive interest rate track'
25th Jul 22, 3:07pm
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BNZ economists see unemployment rate falling further and say unless there are soon signs 'the worm is turning' the RBNZ will have to contemplate 'a more aggressive interest rate track'
A third consecutive 50 point rise taking the Official Cash Rate to 2.5% is universally expected. The focus will be on any clues the Reserve Bank gives on what it might do next
8th Jul 22, 12:59pm
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A third consecutive 50 point rise taking the Official Cash Rate to 2.5% is universally expected. The focus will be on any clues the Reserve Bank gives on what it might do next
[updated]
The economy shrank in the three months to March, contrary to the expectations of the Reserve Bank, which had forecast 0.7% growth
16th Jun 22, 10:54am
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The economy shrank in the three months to March, contrary to the expectations of the Reserve Bank, which had forecast 0.7% growth
[updated]
The downbeat results from the ANZ Business Outlook survey suggest that the RBNZ may have to rethink its OCR hiking plan, according to BNZ economists
31st May 22, 1:24pm
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The downbeat results from the ANZ Business Outlook survey suggest that the RBNZ may have to rethink its OCR hiking plan, according to BNZ economists