US$
US equities push higher, US Treasuries curve steepens a little. NZD down slightly, AUD up slightly, GBP underperforms
13th Jun 23, 7:52am
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US equities push higher, US Treasuries curve steepens a little. NZD down slightly, AUD up slightly, GBP underperforms
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar's performance has been marginally better than many have expected, based on the impending economic recession in New Zealand, coupled with an external Current Account deficit blow-out
12th Jun 23, 8:38am
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Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar's performance has been marginally better than many have expected, based on the impending economic recession in New Zealand, coupled with an external Current Account deficit blow-out
US equities edge higher in quiet markets. Traded volumes were the lowest since October last year. US Treasury yields higher with yield curve continuing recent flattening trend
12th Jun 23, 7:22am
US equities edge higher in quiet markets. Traded volumes were the lowest since October last year. US Treasury yields higher with yield curve continuing recent flattening trend
US initial jobless claims show a solid increase to 261,000, further confirmation of an easing in labour market pressures. This drove US Treasury yields and USD lower. Support for bonds also came from lower oil prices on reports of US-Iran nuclear talks
9th Jun 23, 7:58am
US initial jobless claims show a solid increase to 261,000, further confirmation of an easing in labour market pressures. This drove US Treasury yields and USD lower. Support for bonds also came from lower oil prices on reports of US-Iran nuclear talks
Bank of Canada surprises market with a 25bps hike, a move that spilled over into global rates and equity markets. US 10-year rate up 12bps for the day. Global forces lift NZ rates with more significant price action expected today
8th Jun 23, 8:08am
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Bank of Canada surprises market with a 25bps hike, a move that spilled over into global rates and equity markets. US 10-year rate up 12bps for the day. Global forces lift NZ rates with more significant price action expected today
NZD and AUD performance held back overnight by weak yuan on speculation of further policy easing to support China's economy. US Treasury rates flat to slightly higher. NZ rates play catch-up after long weekend
7th Jun 23, 7:56am
NZD and AUD performance held back overnight by weak yuan on speculation of further policy easing to support China's economy. US Treasury rates flat to slightly higher. NZ rates play catch-up after long weekend
US payrolls data easily beat expectations which provided upward momentum for stocks and higher US Treasury yields. Services ISM unexpectedly fell to 50.3 from 51.9 in April with the prices, new orders and employment subcomponents all falling
6th Jun 23, 7:50am
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US payrolls data easily beat expectations which provided upward momentum for stocks and higher US Treasury yields. Services ISM unexpectedly fell to 50.3 from 51.9 in April with the prices, new orders and employment subcomponents all falling
Roger J Kerr says US interest rates are set to reverse and turn lower again while Aussie interest rates will keep pushing higher. H e says the NZD/USD will closely track the AUD moves
5th Jun 23, 9:10am
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Roger J Kerr says US interest rates are set to reverse and turn lower again while Aussie interest rates will keep pushing higher. H e says the NZD/USD will closely track the AUD moves
Higher Caixin China PMI, lower Euro area inflation, soft ISM manufacturing report with lower prices paid, strong ADP employment with lower wage inflation, all deliver positive risk sentiment after US gets debt deal done
2nd Jun 23, 8:00am
Higher Caixin China PMI, lower Euro area inflation, soft ISM manufacturing report with lower prices paid, strong ADP employment with lower wage inflation, all deliver positive risk sentiment after US gets debt deal done
Mixed US JOLTS report, with more job openings but lower quits rate; Weak Chicago PMI. These forces drive US Treasury yields lower again. Softer than expected China PMI data weighs on the market
1st Jun 23, 8:08am
Mixed US JOLTS report, with more job openings but lower quits rate; Weak Chicago PMI. These forces drive US Treasury yields lower again. Softer than expected China PMI data weighs on the market
US Treasury yields down 9-11 bps following debt ceiling agreement. Weaker US consumer confidence and labour market data and soft Euro area CPI data support the move. Weaker commodity prices not helping NZD, oil down over 4%
31st May 23, 8:00am
US Treasury yields down 9-11 bps following debt ceiling agreement. Weaker US consumer confidence and labour market data and soft Euro area CPI data support the move. Weaker commodity prices not helping NZD, oil down over 4%
Small market movements following the weekend US debt ceiling agreement. US equity futures up 0.3%; Treasury futures little changed, AUD slightly higher
30th May 23, 8:06am
Small market movements following the weekend US debt ceiling agreement. US equity futures up 0.3%; Treasury futures little changed, AUD slightly higher
After another surprise from Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, Roger J Kerr asks: Where to from here?
29th May 23, 8:12am
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After another surprise from Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, Roger J Kerr asks: Where to from here?
US agreement in principle to increase the US Debt ceiling and US personal consumption and PCE higher than expected sees USD higher. Asian policymakers scramble to support their currencies
29th May 23, 7:47am
US agreement in principle to increase the US Debt ceiling and US personal consumption and PCE higher than expected sees USD higher. Asian policymakers scramble to support their currencies
Global rates much higher as the market prices in additional tightening from the Fed, ECB and BoE. US 2-year rate up for the tenth day running. Mixed economic data; Germany officially in recession, US GDP revised slightly higher
26th May 23, 7:55am
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Global rates much higher as the market prices in additional tightening from the Fed, ECB and BoE. US 2-year rate up for the tenth day running. Mixed economic data; Germany officially in recession, US GDP revised slightly higher
Little progress on US debt ceiling negotiations. A number of China concerns in the spotlight, and a big upside miss for UK CPI inflation. AUD hits a fresh low for the year but NZD/AUD still down 1.3% to 93.3 AUc
25th May 23, 8:19am
Little progress on US debt ceiling negotiations. A number of China concerns in the spotlight, and a big upside miss for UK CPI inflation. AUD hits a fresh low for the year but NZD/AUD still down 1.3% to 93.3 AUc
Weaker risk appetite as unresolved debt ceiling negotiations hog the headlines. Equities lower, modest changes in Treasuries, USD broadly stronger; NZD and AUD underperform
24th May 23, 7:48am
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Weaker risk appetite as unresolved debt ceiling negotiations hog the headlines. Equities lower, modest changes in Treasuries, USD broadly stronger; NZD and AUD underperform
The two sides still far apart as the US debt X-date approaches. Modest market movements in a quiet start to the week; US Treasury yields push higher; US equities push higher. NZD tracks sideways
23rd May 23, 8:11am
The two sides still far apart as the US debt X-date approaches. Modest market movements in a quiet start to the week; US Treasury yields push higher; US equities push higher. NZD tracks sideways
Roger J Kerr says the recent rises in the US interest rates and US currency are unlikely to be sustained
22nd May 23, 8:58am
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Roger J Kerr says the recent rises in the US interest rates and US currency are unlikely to be sustained
Comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appeared to support a pause at the June FOMC. US treasury yields and US Dollar move lower following Powell’s comments
22nd May 23, 8:21am
Comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appeared to support a pause at the June FOMC. US treasury yields and US Dollar move lower following Powell’s comments
US Treasury yields higher after more positive vibes on US debt ceiling negotiations, a drop in initial jobless claims. NZ Budget conveys picture of loose fiscal policy, with large cash deficit, rising debt levels. S&P fires warning shot on credit rating
19th May 23, 8:03am
US Treasury yields higher after more positive vibes on US debt ceiling negotiations, a drop in initial jobless claims. NZ Budget conveys picture of loose fiscal policy, with large cash deficit, rising debt levels. S&P fires warning shot on credit rating
Risk sentiment higher on less fear of an imminent US debt default and less concern on US banking sector. US equities up over 1%, US Treasury rates higher for a fourth consecutive day. NZ rates higher on revised OCR calls
18th May 23, 7:42am
Risk sentiment higher on less fear of an imminent US debt default and less concern on US banking sector. US equities up over 1%, US Treasury rates higher for a fourth consecutive day. NZ rates higher on revised OCR calls
War rooms and bailouts: How banks and the Fed are preparing for a US default – and the chaos expected to follow
17th May 23, 10:39am
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War rooms and bailouts: How banks and the Fed are preparing for a US default – and the chaos expected to follow
US Treasury yields push higher, market weighed by corporate supply. NZ rates higher after Westpac's 6% OCR call. Soft China data weigh on yuan and AUD; modest lift in USD
17th May 23, 8:08am
US Treasury yields push higher, market weighed by corporate supply. NZ rates higher after Westpac's 6% OCR call. Soft China data weigh on yuan and AUD; modest lift in USD
US Treasury yields push higher; plunge in US Empire manufacturing survey soon forgotten; mixed messages from FOMC members. Locally, Westpac changes NZ rate call to a 6% OCR peak
16th May 23, 7:56am
US Treasury yields push higher; plunge in US Empire manufacturing survey soon forgotten; mixed messages from FOMC members. Locally, Westpac changes NZ rate call to a 6% OCR peak