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Currencies

US 10-year rate higher, reversing its post US-CPI fall. NZD underperforms, alongside AUD, to be back under 0.70. Second-tier NZ data yesterday reinforces case for RBNZ OCR hikes
13th Aug 21, 7:49am
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US 10-year rate higher, reversing its post US-CPI fall. NZD underperforms, alongside AUD, to be back under 0.70. Second-tier NZ data yesterday reinforces case for RBNZ OCR hikes
Market takes some comfort from latest US CPI report. USD and US 10-year yield fall, the latter aided by strong bond auction. NZD outperforms, up as high as 0.7060
12th Aug 21, 7:48am
Market takes some comfort from latest US CPI report. USD and US 10-year yield fall, the latter aided by strong bond auction. NZD outperforms, up as high as 0.7060
Little news, but risk sentiment improves overnight. US and European equity indices at fresh record highs, commodity currencies rebound - NZD back with 0.70 handle. US 10-year rate continues to grind higher
11th Aug 21, 7:44am
Little news, but risk sentiment improves overnight. US and European equity indices at fresh record highs, commodity currencies rebound - NZD back with 0.70 handle. US 10-year rate continues to grind higher
Commodity prices under pressure. NZD hangs in there around 0.70. US rates push higher; equities flat
10th Aug 21, 7:53am
Commodity prices under pressure. NZD hangs in there around 0.70. US rates push higher; equities flat
US nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected on all fronts. US 10-year jumps to 1.30%, USD higher on potential for earlier Fed tapering. S&P500 edges to fresh record high, with reflation trade favourites making a comeback
9th Aug 21, 7:30am
US nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected on all fronts. US 10-year jumps to 1.30%, USD higher on potential for earlier Fed tapering. S&P500 edges to fresh record high, with reflation trade favourites making a comeback
Limited market moves as investors wait on payrolls tonight. Equities, bond yields and NZD all higher overnight. Bank of England suggests some "modest" tightening likely. NZ rates consolidate yesterday after their sharp increases post-HLFS
6th Aug 21, 7:49am
Limited market moves as investors wait on payrolls tonight. Equities, bond yields and NZD all higher overnight. Bank of England suggests some "modest" tightening likely. NZ rates consolidate yesterday after their sharp increases post-HLFS
US Treasuries whipsawed by mixed US data and upbeat comments from Fed vice-chair Clarida. NZ rates rise across the curve as the market banks on an earlier and more aggressive monetary tightening cycle
5th Aug 21, 7:54am
US Treasuries whipsawed by mixed US data and upbeat comments from Fed vice-chair Clarida. NZ rates rise across the curve as the market banks on an earlier and more aggressive monetary tightening cycle
RBNZ gives nod to potential August rate hike pushing up short rates higher and NZD well supported. RBA upbeat despite lockdowns, supporting AUD. Global equities push higher; UST10s range-bound
4th Aug 21, 7:53am
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RBNZ gives nod to potential August rate hike pushing up short rates higher and NZD well supported. RBA upbeat despite lockdowns, supporting AUD. Global equities push higher; UST10s range-bound
US 10-year rate tumbles to a low of just below 1.15% after slightly softer US ISM survey. AUD up ahead of RBA this afternoon; NZD flat. COVID19 spreads across nearly half of China's provinces
3rd Aug 21, 7:43am
US 10-year rate tumbles to a low of just below 1.15% after slightly softer US ISM survey. AUD up ahead of RBA this afternoon; NZD flat. COVID19 spreads across nearly half of China's provinces
Equities and bond yields lower, USD higher on Friday. Plenty of economic data but little impact on markets. AUD and NZD underperform last week with RBA expected to reverse tapering decision
2nd Aug 21, 7:36am
Equities and bond yields lower, USD higher on Friday. Plenty of economic data but little impact on markets. AUD and NZD underperform last week with RBA expected to reverse tapering decision
US Q2 GDP weaker than expected, but with strong consumption and investment. Equities and bond yields increase, USD continues to fall. NZD back above 0.70 with gains on all the key crosses
30th Jul 21, 7:56am
US Q2 GDP weaker than expected, but with strong consumption and investment. Equities and bond yields increase, USD continues to fall. NZD back above 0.70 with gains on all the key crosses
Willem Buiter offers an estimate of the remaining US output gap in light of the pandemic's lingering effects
29th Jul 21, 9:43am
by Guest
Willem Buiter offers an estimate of the remaining US output gap in light of the pandemic's lingering effects
Fed tweaks policy Statement but unlikely to change market expectations of timing of tapering decision. Little market reaction; USD slightly weaker as Fed Chair Powell offers some dovish soundbites
29th Jul 21, 7:52am
Fed tweaks policy Statement but unlikely to change market expectations of timing of tapering decision. Little market reaction; USD slightly weaker as Fed Chair Powell offers some dovish soundbites
Risk off as China's regulatory crackdown on sectors spills over into other markets. S&P500 down over 1%, Nasdaq down over 2% at their lows. USD surprisingly weak during risk-off episode, but NZD and AUD still dragged down by hit on CNY
28th Jul 21, 8:01am
Risk off as China's regulatory crackdown on sectors spills over into other markets. S&P500 down over 1%, Nasdaq down over 2% at their lows. USD surprisingly weak during risk-off episode, but NZD and AUD still dragged down by hit on CNY
Risk appetite recovers after weak Asian trading session. US equities up slightly to a fresh record high. US nominal 10-year rate little changed for the day but real rate prints a record low. NZD regains the 0.70 handle amidst broad USD weakness
27th Jul 21, 7:41am
Risk appetite recovers after weak Asian trading session. US equities up slightly to a fresh record high. US nominal 10-year rate little changed for the day but real rate prints a record low. NZD regains the 0.70 handle amidst broad USD weakness
Equity markets reach new record highs, supported by corporate earnings expectations. Global rates and currencies little changed on Friday. FOMC meeting, Australian CPI the key highlights this week
26th Jul 21, 7:36am
Equity markets reach new record highs, supported by corporate earnings expectations. Global rates and currencies little changed on Friday. FOMC meeting, Australian CPI the key highlights this week
Global equities push higher; global rates push lower. ECB reasserts dovish credentials resulting in small EUR underperformance. NZD and AUD show small gains. Strong demand for NZGBs even after QE ends in NZ
23rd Jul 21, 7:46am
Global equities push higher; global rates push lower. ECB reasserts dovish credentials resulting in small EUR underperformance. NZD and AUD show small gains. Strong demand for NZGBs even after QE ends in NZ
Higher risk sentiment drives up equities, global rates, commodities and commodity currencies. US 10-year rate back up towards 1.3%. Strong US earnings help; companies report widespread inflation pressures
22nd Jul 21, 7:48am
Higher risk sentiment drives up equities, global rates, commodities and commodity currencies. US 10-year rate back up towards 1.3%. Strong US earnings help; companies report widespread inflation pressures
US equities bounce back strongly but other markets don't. US 10-year rate hits fresh low below 1.13% before reversing course. NZD and AUD hit fresh year-to-date lows. COVID19 risks overhang the market; conviction of August RBNZ rate hike recedes
21st Jul 21, 7:51am
US equities bounce back strongly but other markets don't. US 10-year rate hits fresh low below 1.13% before reversing course. NZD and AUD hit fresh year-to-date lows. COVID19 risks overhang the market; conviction of August RBNZ rate hike recedes
Risk sentiment sours on worries about delta variant and increased geopolitical tensions with China. Equities tumble, US 10-year rate plunges to 5-month low of 1.17%. Commodity currencies down around 1%; NZD nears 0.6920 support level
20th Jul 21, 7:51am
Risk sentiment sours on worries about delta variant and increased geopolitical tensions with China. Equities tumble, US 10-year rate plunges to 5-month low of 1.17%. Commodity currencies down around 1%; NZD nears 0.6920 support level
Roger J Kerr doesn't see an August OCR hike, seeing stresses building in our regional economies with no overheating, and speculators ready to bet that the NZD is too high especially against the AUD
19th Jul 21, 8:11am
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Roger J Kerr doesn't see an August OCR hike, seeing stresses building in our regional economies with no overheating, and speculators ready to bet that the NZD is too high especially against the AUD
Risk appetite weaker on Friday as US consumer sentiment softens. US 10-year rate closes below 1.30%; USD well supported. NZD supported as inflation surges to above the RBNZ's 1-3% target range
19th Jul 21, 7:40am
Risk appetite weaker on Friday as US consumer sentiment softens. US 10-year rate closes below 1.30%; USD well supported. NZD supported as inflation surges to above the RBNZ's 1-3% target range
Market sentiment turns more cautious. Equity markets lower, US 10-year falls below 1.30%. USD strengthens to near a three-month high. NZ 2-year swap jumps another 6bps ahead of the CPI release this morning
16th Jul 21, 7:49am
Market sentiment turns more cautious. Equity markets lower, US 10-year falls below 1.30%. USD strengthens to near a three-month high. NZ 2-year swap jumps another 6bps ahead of the CPI release this morning
RBNZ announces an end to bond buying - market prices ~70% chance of an August OCR hike. US 10-year and USD pull back after yesterday's post-US CPI increases. Bank of Canada tapers QE, but market expected more hawkish guidance
15th Jul 21, 7:48am
RBNZ announces an end to bond buying - market prices ~70% chance of an August OCR hike. US 10-year and USD pull back after yesterday's post-US CPI increases. Bank of Canada tapers QE, but market expected more hawkish guidance
US CPI much higher than expected again. Yield curve initially flattens on Fed rate hike risk before weak 30-year auction drags long-end rates higher. Equity markets give back earlier gains as US 10-year rate jumps
14th Jul 21, 7:49am
US CPI much higher than expected again. Yield curve initially flattens on Fed rate hike risk before weak 30-year auction drags long-end rates higher. Equity markets give back earlier gains as US 10-year rate jumps