Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB has trimmed most rates 9 months and shorter. ISBS has trimmed most rates 18 months and shorter. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
The REINZ's median price and their House Price Index both declined in May, even if some sales volumes rose from May. But sales volumes in Auckland declined in May and a tough portend for the winter selling period. Auckland median prices are now -3.5% lower than year-ago levels,
QV SEES DECLINE EXTENDING
QV says house values are still declining but at a slower rate than previously. A few regions are actually rising.
THE STATE OF OUR HOUSING
StatsNZ today released a 2025 update of their 2020 report on housing. They say the data shows an increase in housing density, and more multi-unit homes. Home ownership has increased, while at the same time housing affordability is still an issue for many households. The proportion of people living in a crowded home increased by around 2 percentage points to 12.2%.
EARLY INFLATION SIGNALS
Statistics NZ's Selected Price Indexes show that food prices rose +4.4% in the past year to May, while rent prices had their lowest annual increase since 2015 at +2.8%. CPI is seen heading toward top of RBNZ's target range in this interim update.
A MINOR RECOVERY
Tractor sales rose to 169 in May, the most since November 2024. The average May sales over the past ten years (excluding May 2020) has been 210, so the current level is still -20% lower than that.
STILL FEELING BRIGHT
But farmer sentiment is holding very much higher than that would suggest. They say they are optimistic and intend to invest more in their businesses in the upcoming year, according to the June Rabobank survey.
FBT STILL APPLIES
The IRD is pushing back on political lobbying to carve out double cab utes from FBT There is confusion over efforts to simplify record-keeping. “When it comes to double cab utes, these are treated no differently to any other vehicle. Unless the use of the vehicle meets all the requirements for an exemption from FBT, then a double cab ute is, and always has been, subject to FBT. That is the current law,” a spokesperson said. “Work-related vehicles are only exempt from FBT if they meet certain requirements. This includes double cab utes.”
NZX50 GIVES UP EARLIER GAINS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed today shifting back from a modest gain in the morning. It is up +1.0% for the past week. It is down -2.8% since the start of the year although up +8.6% from this time last year. SkyCity casino, Infratil, Tower, and Oceania Healthcare rise while Kathmandu, Gentrack, Sky TV and Goodman Property fall.
LISTED COMPANY PROFILE UPDATES
Our NZX50 company monitoring now includes updates to the profiles (key financial metrics) for Stride Property (SPG), Turners Automotive Group (TRA), Oceania Healthcare (OCA), Investors Property (IPL), and Serko (SKO), all from annual reports with a March balance date.
EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
There is another full dairy auction tomorrow, and the derivatives market suggests the SMP price will hold but the WMP could take a more than -5% retreat.
BIG COVERED BONDS ISSUE
A ratings update from Moody's reveals that BNZ is carving out €750 mln more of mortgages into an equivalent covered bonds issue. That will take the total pool in this program to $6.4 bln.
AS EXPECTED JAPAN HOLDS RATE
The Bank of Japan held its key interest rate steady today (Tuesday) following a two-day policy meeting, keeping its rate at 0.5% amid economic uncertainty stemming from US trade policies. This marks the third consecutive meeting after which the central bank has maintained the rate; the last increase came in January.
SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today while markets hold their breath. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. Notice it isn't falling. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.30% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is also unchanged at 4.24%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is little-changed too at 4.64% but was up +3 bps at 4.62% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now up +2 bps from yesterday to 4.44%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now down -0.1% so far today on risk aversion. The ASX200 is up +0.1 so far in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.5% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.2% at its open while Shanghai is also down -0.2%. Singapore has opened up +0.4%. Wall Street sentiment was positive and the S&P500 rose +0.9% in Monday trade.
OIL HOLDS HIGH
The oil price is up another +US$1 from this morning at just under US$74/bbl in the US, and just under US$75/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
The carbon price is down -50c at NZ$56.50/NZU but on very few trades. The next official carbon auction is tomorrow, with a $68 floor price. So it will fail. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD PULLS BACK
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$41/oz from this time yesterday at US$3394/oz.
NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this time yesterday at 60.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at just on 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 52.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.1 and up +20 bps.
BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$107,477 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/-1.4%.
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22 Comments
I tractor for a while
then I hung up my plough
where are you Foxy?
:)
Descent is in a foxhole.
Often the way
Signed: Hound
I kept away from furrows - the humour police are a viscous mob.
"the humour police are a viscous mob"
Viscous enough fill out the furrows ?
depends on the crankshaft temp
tends to have a bearing on the matter
Try Coleridge then. The furrow followed gratis.
You're talking to an ancient mariner..
I had one once but Suzuki's were more reliable.
From the summary: "" housing market weakens, home ownership level rises"" - cause and effect? More please.
Nobody was made for the Trump era more than Justin Sun. Rotten to the core. Even the crypto degenerates / crooks can't really get their heads around this. SRM Entertainment stock price took off before the announcement - 60%+. Up 533% on the day.
Crypto billionaire Justin Sun’s digital asset platform Tron is set to go public in the US, four months after market regulators agreed to pause a fraud investigation into several of his companies.
Tron will go public in a reverse merger with Nasdaq-listed SRM Entertainment in a deal orchestrated by Dominari Securities, a New York-based boutique investment bank with ties to Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump, according to two people briefed on the matter.
https://www.ft.com/content/13a6cead-af71-4811-9b90-553f233ac45f
Is the link on 'StatsNZ today released a 2025 update' wrong?
Hiding in plain sight...
Scientists may have found a big, mysterious carbon sink in the South Island
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/564407/scientists-may-have-found-a-…
This is probably what Profile has latched onto.
But it's nonsense - go back to basics. Mature forest is mature forest - neutral in carbon terms. If some of it is regen and maturing, fine; if not, not.
Secondly, you cannot pull 300 million BOE (barrels of oil equivalent) of fossil energy OUT OF THE GROUND EVERY DAY and somehow think you can 'sequester' it above-ground, without massive ecological change. We did not evolve in the Carboniferous.
And the biggest stupidity, is assuming that we can get out of jail free - while ignoring the fact that the atmosphere is global - so the money you think you'll make because local BAU can/might get out of jail free - isn't going to be there to trade with you. Lack of Systems thinking - just lack of logic, really. Peak globalisation was a long time ago.
Straws. Cling.
one of the things i clicked while offshore sailing is just how small the planet really is, you are toddling along at perhaps (in my old tub) 5knts or 8kmph average, and in six days you are in New Cal, 9 in Fiji etc.... the breathable atmosphere is only extending above you 8000m and so the livable atmosphere is actually very very small, and we just keep pumping crap into it as if its endless...
Flying over it, drinking free piss and watching movies you probably think its endless.
Its not...
Aye - I remember tootling along in a dying breeze 300 miles short of Papeete - starry night; half-metre swell no whitecaps. There was a single white light, no navs, about 3 miles away, going out of sight in the swell. Small. No land for 300 m. Go figure. Who, and why? They probably though nothing of it - probably got back by old-school nav - homing birds and wave-refraction.
Would like to get back to Moorea before I cark it.
Neville Shute. The Trustee From The Toolroom. Describes such a natural seaman, such navigation, such a voyage. Bit dated now but nonetheless one of those books, always worthy of remembering. Said sailor availed in part scheduled daily Pacific flight,in an uncrowded sky. Just take a peek at Flight Radar these days. Mind boggling in comparison.
I've got it. Sliderule is good too - maybe better.
I spent a lot of time with David Lewis (We, the Navigators, Icebird etc) - he instigated the first of the re-enactments (Hokulea Hawaii-Tahiti in '76). Fascinating stuff; land-birds homing at sunset are headed for land. Green under a CU or a Cunim cloud is reflected forest. All refracted waves will be at 90deg to what they bounced off. They went offset (Tahiti chain runs N/S) and turned in half-way down - bigger target. Fascinating ftuff.
Fitting, its super easy to sail from New Cal to NZ in Oct just follow Matariki
I used to have chart plotter on v low but sail by the stars and the mast position, easy once you get used to it..
https://www.tepapa.govt.nz/discover-collections/read-watch-play/matarik…
By the stars. An old family friend pilot of a Short Stirling that had been shot to pieces, crew bailed out except for the engineer who appeared in the cockpit explaining that he hadn’t gone because he was afraid of heights. Anyway the pilot was a well versed yachtsman with enough natural knowledge to navigate by the stars, which he did all the way over Holland, the channel and in the dark found the home base and landed. Awarded the CGM. Look up the history of No 75 Squadron. It’s all there. Have to wonder if such talent is still common these days.
My grandfather was one of the first members of 75 - he wasn't a navigator, he was a radio operator/gunner. He somehow survived WW2. As a teenager, I'd join him on his ham radio talking to his buddies across the world. It felt like those people were little stars and talking to them was like navigating across the world. I have to agree, Fox, they don't make them like that any more.
See if you can get a hold of Adam Claasen’s Grid. From an earlier time WW1 biography ok Keith Caldwell. Absolutely staggering as to what achievements, responsibilities and maturity all only by the age of twenty two.
I read a more recent (Parallel Motion 2011) biography of Shute last year. A hard to read syntax however it had a fascinating amount of detail about his life.
Landfall is probably my pick however I really enjoyed most of his books when I first picked them up in high school.
An unusual mix. Extremely capable engineer especially aeronautics. Yet he wrote with a wonderful insight of human nature and could portray pathos subtlety, without being cloying. By chance once came across a review of his work by Graham Greene who expressed something like - if he wasn’t so lazy he could be right up here with me and Somerset.
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