A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; housing market weakens, home ownership level rises, inflation rises, farmers feeling better but still not buying tractors, swaps stable, NZD rises, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB has trimmed most rates 9 months and shorter. ISBS has trimmed most rates 18 months and shorter. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

The REINZ's median price and their House Price Index both declined in May, even if some sales volumes rose from May. But sales volumes in Auckland declined in May and a tough portend for the winter selling period. Auckland median prices are now -3.5% lower than year-ago levels, 

QV SEES DECLINE EXTENDING
QV says house values are still declining but at a slower rate than previously. A few regions are actually rising.

THE STATE OF OUR HOUSING
StatsNZ today released a 2025 update of their 2020 report on housing. They say the data shows an increase in housing density, and more multi-unit homes. Home ownership has increased, while at the same time housing affordability is still an issue for many households. The proportion of people living in a crowded home increased by around 2 percentage points to 12.2%.

EARLY INFLATION SIGNALS
Statistics NZ's Selected Price Indexes show that food prices rose +4.4% in the past year to May, while rent prices had their lowest annual increase since 2015 at +2.8%. CPI is seen heading toward top of RBNZ's target range in this interim update.

A MINOR RECOVERY
Tractor sales rose to 169 in May, the most since November 2024. The average May sales over the past ten years (excluding May 2020) has been 210, so the current level is still -20% lower than that.

STILL FEELING BRIGHT
But farmer sentiment is holding very much higher than that would suggest. They say they are optimistic and intend to invest more in their businesses in the upcoming year, according to the June Rabobank survey.

FBT STILL APPLIES
The IRD is pushing back on political lobbying to carve out double cab utes from FBT  There is confusion over efforts to simplify record-keeping. “When it comes to double cab utes, these are treated no differently to any other vehicle. Unless the use of the vehicle meets all the requirements for an exemption from FBT, then a double cab ute is, and always has been, subject to FBT. That is the current law,” a spokesperson said. “Work-related vehicles are only exempt from FBT if they meet certain requirements. This includes double cab utes.”

NZX50 GIVES UP EARLIER GAINS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed today shifting back from a modest gain in the morning. It is up +1.0% for the past week. It is down -2.8% since the start of the year although up +8.6% from this time last year. SkyCity casino, Infratil, Tower, and Oceania Healthcare rise while Kathmandu, Gentrack, Sky TV and Goodman Property fall.

LISTED COMPANY PROFILE UPDATES
Our NZX50 company monitoring now includes updates to the profiles (key financial metrics) for Stride Property (SPG), Turners Automotive Group (TRA), Oceania Healthcare (OCA), Investors Property (IPL), and Serko (SKO), all from annual reports with a March balance date.

EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
There is another full dairy auction tomorrow, and the derivatives market suggests the SMP price will hold but the WMP could take a more than -5% retreat.

BIG COVERED BONDS ISSUE
A ratings update from Moody's reveals that BNZ is carving out €750 mln more of mortgages into an equivalent covered bonds issue. That will take the total pool in this program to $6.4 bln.

AS EXPECTED JAPAN HOLDS RATE
The Bank of Japan held its key interest rate steady today (Tuesday) following a two-day policy meeting, keeping its rate at 0.5% amid economic uncertainty stemming from US trade policies. This marks the third consecutive meeting after which the central bank has maintained the rate; the last increase came in January.

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today while markets hold their breath. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. Notice it isn't falling. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.30% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is also unchanged at 4.24%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is little-changed too at 4.64% but was up +3 bps at 4.62% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now up +2 bps from yesterday to 4.44%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now down -0.1% so far today on risk aversion. The ASX200 is up +0.1 so far in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.5% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.2% at its open while Shanghai is also down -0.2%. Singapore has opened up +0.4%. Wall Street sentiment was positive and the S&P500 rose +0.9% in Monday trade.

OIL HOLDS HIGH
The oil price is up another +US$1 from this morning at just under US$74/bbl in the US, and just under US$75/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
The carbon price is down -50c at NZ$56.50/NZU but on very few trades. The next official carbon auction is tomorrow, with a $68 floor price. So it will fail. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD PULLS BACK
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$41/oz from this time yesterday at US$3394/oz.

NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this time yesterday at 60.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at just on 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 52.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.1 and up +20 bps.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$107,477 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/-1.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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