Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current home loan rates area here. There will be more changes pre-Christmas, we hear. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
GoLend has cut its peer-to-peer rate. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
LESS PESSIMISTIC, & LOOKING FORWARD WITH HOPE
The latest Q4-2025 survey of consumer sentiment comes from Westpac-McDermott Miller. It reports growing optimism, but still not more than pessimists. But households are feeling more optimistic about the 'outlook for the economy' over the coming years. In fact, the proportion of people who expect economic conditions will improve over the coming year is the highest it’s been since 2021. And that growing optimism has also given spending appetites a boost. (The ANZ-Roy Morgan monthly version is due on Friday.)
RELATIVELY SMALLER CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
The current account deficit shrunk in Q3-2025 to a four-year low. The deficit between what we earn overseas and what we spend has continued to narrow, now to -3.5% of GDP, compared with a level of -9% three years ago. Global credit rating agencies should be happy.
MORE EXTERNAL DEBT
Net external debt (international assets and liabilities excluding equity and financial derivatives) widened by $7.1 bln during Q3-2025 to reach almost $226 bln or 51.4% of GDP.
MORE OCR REVIEWS COMING
Governor Anna Breman says the Reserve Bank 'really has to consider' moving to eight OCR meetings per year - something the bank switched away from 10 years ago.
DAIRY PRICES IN TOUGH BEAR MARKET
The overnight dairy auction was another bad one with prices down -4.4% in USD terms and down -5.4% in NZD terms. The key WMP price fell -5.7% in USD terms. This is now serious. The recent downgrades to current season milk payout forecasts are going to get looked at again by the analysts. Since the peak in May, theses prices have dropped -25% and are down -17% from this time last year. We are in a full bear market for dairy prices. Making it worse is that we are now just past the seasonal peak of the milk curve, which will take the top off the country's export earnings. Yesterday's MPI SOPI is already out of date, and even that wasn't very positive about earnings from dairy exports. More here.
MORE ABLE TO FUND LOWER QUALITY PROJECTS
With Adrian Orr gone, the RBNZ has caved to bank and political (especially farming) pressures, rolling back the amount of capital shareholders need to support their bank. The RBNZ now says the coming regulatory changes will reduce bank costs and bolser credit (debt) availability. But despite the wishful thinking by Fed Farmers and some politicians it is hard to see how this move will bolster economic activity. Actually, Fed Farmers wanted much more rollback. It is more likely to see projects funded that won't have good returns. And banks will now become even more leveraged and their shareholders will get juiced ROI.
MORE TRACTORS?
There were +13% more tractors sold in November than in the same month a year ago. But that was only 188 new tractors purchased. The prior 5 year average for a November is 229; the prior ten year average is 257. So in fact the November 2025 remains unusually low. Farmers are not investing in new tractors.
DONE OUR UPDATED QUIZ YET?
Our quiz has been refreshed for the new week. You can do it here.
NZX50 DROPS, UP LESS THAN INFLATION FROM A YEAR AGO
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.4% so far today following the overnight global retreat. That puts it unchanged over the past five working days. It is up +2.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up only +3.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.9% so far today. Gentrack, Freightways, Channel Infrastructure and Oceania lead the gainers while Meridian, Property for Industry, F&P Healthcare and Infratil retreat.
A NEW BLUE ECONOMY HUB IN NELSON
Westpac says it is helping fund a dedicated workspace for blue economy businesses in Nelson for the 'blue economy' in partnership with the Nelson Regional Development Agency and Kernohan Engineering. The funded workspace will include administrative support for start-ups and businesses transitioning to sustainable ocean activities, they say. Westpac's commitment is for three years.
HOLDING ON TO CHARITY REGISTRATION
The Department of Internal Affairs has been investigating Waipareira Trust over governance issues. The investigation has concluded with a finding from the Charities Registration Board that de-registration of the Trust is not required in light of the substantial changes made. The Board found that Te Whānau O Waipareira Trust made significant changes of sufficient scale and magnitude to maintain its charitable status including structural, financial and governance changes.
CORE MACHINERY ORDERS RISE MORE THAN EXPECTED
In Japan, machinery orders, (but excluding volatile sectors such like ships and electric power systems), jumped +7.0% in October from September's good 4.2% gain. This is even better that expected because a -2.3% decline was anticipated. The October level was also the highest since March.
EXPORT RISE
So it won't be a surprise to know that Japan’s exports rose +6.1% in November from a year ago, the third consecutive monthly gain and better than the expected rise. In fact, it was the fastest pace in export shipments since February, and was driven by demand from the US who have just accepted that they have to pay their tariff-taxes. This gain pushed Japan back into a trade surplus.
SWAP RATES RETREAT UNDER PRESSURE
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today across the maturity curve after the RBNZ moved to correct 'interpretation errors' by financial markets. That correct is now done, it seems, and swaps will move on from here net higher. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bps at 2.49% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.74%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.84%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.58%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate down -4 bps at 4.54%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bps from yesterday at 4.16%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY WEAKER AGAIN
The local equity market is down -0.3% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.1% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is little-changed so far as is Shanghai. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 down another -0.2%.
OIL SOFTER YET AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down another -US$1 at just over US$55.50/bbl while the international Brent price is at just on US$59.50/bbl. Both levels are new two month lows. Expected weaker demand from the US is behind the shift, and comes even though the US is now blockading Venezuelan ports.
CARBON PRICE INCHES LOWER AGAIN
Secondary market transactions are still small and far between, and still inching lower, now to $38.75/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD AND SILVER UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$18/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4325/oz and back near its historic October 20 highs. Silver is rising further, now just under US$65.50/oz and a new record high.
NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday, now just under 57.9 USc. (Kiwibank thinks the NZD could hit 63 USc in 2026, a +9% revaluation.) Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62 and up +20 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price is now at US$87,518 and up +1.9% from yesterday. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.5%.
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16 Comments
Dairy prices tanking !
NZ Real estate only slides
We are in serious trouble down on the farm!
If I told you that Mainland prices doubled every 7-10 years, like the Ponzi, that should make sense.
Prices have to increase like this if the Ponzi is the be all and end all.
We are in a full bear market for dairy prices.
Similarly for the ol' rat poison. The bears are in control.
Big difference is that my finger will be hovering above the buy button if we get down around the USD25K level.
But don't expect to see the same with discounted butter on the shelves.
Although you can freeze butter and put it in cold storage 😂
That's a good point. I'm not thinking laterally.
WSJ takes on 'Why Everyone Got Trump’s Tariffs Wrong' - predictions of the duties’ impact on the economy were buoyant or dire.
The article concludes that tariffs neither “fixed” nor “wrecked” the economy; instead they created a muddled middle outcome, with modest drag, pockets of sectoral strain, and ongoing uncertainty rather than clear-cut catastrophe or success.
And Trump and the economists largely missed the mark on inflation. Some great graphics here to illustrate, such as an indexed price of imported goods.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/why-everyone-got-trumps-tariffs-wrong-d16a4…
Almost everything is overhyped.
It's either clickbait or rage bait.
The tariffs were imposed (and constantly amended since) little more than 6 months ago....dont be in such a hurry to judge.
Time is always an overlooked factor.
ETPMAG up a whopping 5% today on the ASX - futures the same. This is uncommon and I suspect the price movement was driven by China mkt action. Price rocketed over USD65. Citi is looking at massive losses on their silver short positions. Yikes. This is looking like a squeeze. Is there a banking crisis incoming?
ETPMAG is the ASX code for Global X Physical Silver, a physically backed silver exchange-traded fund. It provides investors with exposure to the spot price of silver in AUD.
Now up 112% for the year.
Lovin the Gold and Silver physical and miners BIGGEST BULL market ever!!!!
King of Riverswamphead must be spitting tacks..... betting it all on crashing property.......poor old sod!
Well if I had told you silver was going to be up 100%+ and gold 60%+ by year end in Jan 2024 [which I would never have been able to predict], I would have been laughed out of the BBQ and been a target of mockery at the water cooler. Wouldn't have been in Granny's predictions. They would have gone for the safety of 7% increase in Ponzi prices.
Actually, you would have been in good company.
by Yvil | 29th Jun 23, 4:54pm
I've started buying gold since it dropped under USD 1,950, I'm not winning so far, but I don't expect to sell it for at least 12-18 months
Is this some kind of Fantasy League you're in Dr Y?
And banks will now become even more leveraged and their shareholders will get juiced ROI.
Along with crap return on assets.
Um but that is how you create a ‘rockstar economy’. We just keep creating more private debt relative to productivity and then you never actually have to be more productive to improve the economy and living standards - all you have to do is issue more mortgage debt so we get the wealth effect!!
Its the recipe for everlasting economic property where you don’t actually have to produce more goods and services for the rest of the world to improve domestic living standards - you just get banks to leverage up the housing market some more using lower interest rates and relaxed capital rules and then you can say ‘look at how rich we all (or some of us) are!!
(Such behaviour and thinking breaks all the rules of hundreds of years of economic thought and proven experience - but here in NZ we are special in this time and place, immune from reality of how sustainable prosperity is really created - by producing more things to export - not creating more housing debt and capital gains).
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