Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Update: Westpac said it is hiking fixed rates on Monday. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
FHB AFFORDABILITY SPREADS NEARLY EVERYWHERE
It turns out that 2025 was a very good year for first home buyers. They were helped by stagnant prices, plenty of stock to choose from, and falling interest rates last year. Everywhere is affordable with a 20% deposit (except Queenstown). Twenty-one of the 28 urban areas we monitor were affordable with a 10% deposit.
ACTIVITY INDICATORS DIP ON INFLATIONARY SIGNALS
The ANZ Business Confidence survey found the December improvement basically has held into January, with a worrying 'but' - a resurgence of inflationary pressures. 'We are forecasting the first OCR hike to come in December this year, but if these pricing intentions manifest in hard data, it’ll come earlier than that', ANZ noted.
STILL LOOKING FOR A TRADE SURPLUS AFTER 25 YEARS
Our exports reached more that $80.7 bln in 2025, up +14.0% from the 2024 year and a first above $80 bln for any calendar year. But imports hit $82.9 bln, up +5.4% from 2024, so a deficit of -$2.2 bln. That was its lowest annual merchandise trade deficit since . In December alone exports were matched by imports at about $7.6 bln, both up about +14.8% from the same month in 2024. Excluding the pandemic distortions, this was the lowest merchandise trade deficit since 2015. With the same exception, the last time we recorded a December year trade surplus was in 2001 (+$1.0 bln)
ITS TOUGH LEASING COMMERCIAL PREMISES
Regular readers will know that we monitor 'for lease' listings for commercial property. They rose to a high at the end of November and have dipped minorly since. As at the end of January 2026 they are nationally +12.7% higher than at the same time in 2025. They are are +32% higher in the Manukau section of Auckland but only +6.2% higher in the much larger Auckland Central market. Other notable annual shifts are Tauranga, up +24.6%, Wellington, up +15.8%, Christchurch, up +5.8%. The tightest market seems to be Queenstown.
STUNNING CHANGE IN HIGH-VALUE BORROWER BEHAVIOUR
December brought a big surge in bank switching by mortgage borrowers, shifting $5.8 bln between banks in a month. The latest Reserve Bank figures show this massive spike in change of loan provider in the month, with record amounts being moved and a record share of the total new monthly mortgage market.
HIGH BORROWING BUT RESPONSIBLE REPAYMENT HABITS
In the year to December 2025, the total mortgage interest paid was $21.3 bln, almost exactly double the amounts paid in the 2022 year ($12.0 bln). We now owe $387.5 bln for loans on housing (which has a current market value of a $1.6 tln). Borrowers paid back not only $29.7 bln in scheduled repayments, but added another +60% to that be also repaying another $17.8 bln in excess repayments (not to be confused with full repayments).
FSC CHAIR CHANGE
The Financial Services Council has appointed a new Independent Chair, David McLean, who succeeds Rob Flannagan following more than ten years in the role.
PLAYED OUR QUIZ YET THIS WEEK?
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 SLIPS AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far today. That puts it down -1.6% over the past five working days. It is up +3.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +2.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.4% so far today. Tower, Meridian, Hallensteins, and Spark are the top gainers as Investore, Tourism Holdings, Fletcher, and Stride Property are the main decliners.
ANOTHER SUCCESSFUL NZGB TENDER
At today's NZ Government Bond tender, there were 134 bids worth $1.85 bln for the $450 mln on offer in three maturities. 59 bids were successful into a rising yield situation.
PLAYING A DIFFERENT GAME
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (their central bank) held monetary policy steady for a third consecutive review today, maintaining the slope, width, and center of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, as markets expected. However, they lifted their inflation outlook for the coming year to 1% to 2%, up from the 2025 forecast range of 0.5% to1.5%. Actual CPI inflation in Singapore came in at +0.9% in December.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end but lower for longer durations today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% yesterday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.80%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.24% and down -3 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps from yesterday, now at 4.61%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Wednesday's rate up +3 bps at 4.63%. The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.25%.
EQUITIES GENERALLY LOWER
The local equity market is now up down -0.7% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is also down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.2% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.4% today so far and Shanghai is unchanged. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 leaking earlier gains to finish unchanged.
OIL RISES - IN USD
The oil price in the US is up +US$1 at just over US$63.50/bbl while the international Brent price now at US$69/bbl, again shifted by USD weakness.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS LOW
Secondary market activity has seen very few transactions and the price is unchanged at $34.50/NZU today. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD PUSHES UP BIGLY
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$322/oz and now at US$5539/oz and a +6.2% daily gain. Silver up +US$3.50 at US$117/oz, and platinum is now at US$2704/oz, up +US$39 from this time yesterday. Aluminium is still rising.
NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this time yesterday at just on 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 86.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.7 and up another +30 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN SLIPS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is now at US$88,436 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.1%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
13 Comments
Capturing the zeitgeist:
You know you're on the wrong side of history when...
https://youtu.be/wWKSoxG1K7w?si=1CDdsFqVOhCJ_kPw
...& some of us are old enough to remember this one
1.7 mln downloads in 10 hours!!
Reads like the CNN news ticker........doesn't this "celebrity" now virtually work there?
What's up with your quotes on celebrity? He's not my cup of tea, but must be one of the most recognisable musicians in the world, and particularly in America.
Yes he is a loved celeb, esp in the lefty circles. I admit that I liked some.....of his earlier stuff.
However, I don't take my steer in life from music or artsy types, most likely will hear them and do the exact opposite. It played this way in the USA too!
Their almost 90% opposition to Trump, backfired monumentally, when their high and mighty, chardonnay swilling, yet faulty words, helped propel Trump to a massive win.
Keep it up Springstinky, the Right needs your failing and faulty efforts to keepwinninggoing!
You'll enjoy this NZ masterpiece:
A generic Springsteen ditty does not a zeitgeist make....and who knows who is on the right side of history until we can look back? The phenomenal second coming of Trump suggests a much different zeitgeist.
Show biz came out en force anti Trump in 2023. Such as De Niro, Springsteen and even Swift.The public obviously were not swayed by star power. Perhaps that may have been from a perception that said stars all sit nicely in lifestyles of affluence well beyond the average Joe Blow. Which if so, is kinda ironic because Trump himself is well and truly in that tranche too isn’t he. Just musing on the bewildering results and conditions that America can produce for itself.
Commercial vacancies seem high. Retail vacancies in AKL still feel high but I guess there's some data somewhere
I see swaps (2 years and longer) have broken out above their most recent high (11 Dec or there abouts).
It wouldn't surprise me if by Feb OCR review, that hikes are seriously being considered (ie about 12 months earlier than projected).
If they delay, it could be that they are back to chasing inflation/rising wholesale rates for much longer than they would otherwise need to if they act promptly enough.
Yip.
I think the banks saying "end of year" is just wishful thinking cause they know rises will tank the Ponzi quicker
The now 5th year, of the collapsing NZ Housing Ponzi, is still very much in play! That is, big downwards play.......
DTIs of 4x are coming to a street near you!
- Buyers beware, and adjust you offers downwards, negative equity is a biatch.
Interesting comparison of gold vs the ol' rat poison to give a sense of scale.
Gold is up nearly 25%+ in the last 28 days and has added USD7.6 trillion to its market cap.
That’s 4.5x the entire Bitcoin market cap added to gold in a single month.
Or approx 8x Aotearoa Ponzis. In less than a month.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.