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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; more TD cuts, retail spending drops, councils see revenue growth evaporate, more cheap money, swap rates threaten zero, NZD firm, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; more TD cuts, retail spending drops, councils see revenue growth evaporate, more cheap money, swap rates threaten zero, NZD firm, & more
ID 22702269 © Daniaphoto | Dreamstime.com

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Both Westpac and the Cooperative Bank have trimmed their term deposit rate offers. The Westpac cuts take them down to the ANZ and ASB levels but not as low as the BNZ levels. The other main banks are sure to follow BNZ at some point.

ANOTHER HIT
COVID knocks retail spending again in August. Statistics New Zealand says retail card spending using electronic cards slumped by over half a billion dollars in the month as Auckland entered a new level 3 lockdown. It was down -5.3% from the same month a year ago, after being up +6.3% in July.

TIGHT FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Local authorities are struggling to raise revenues just as some of their costs rise. New data out to June 2020 shows that rates and regulatory income rose only +2.0% in the June quarter compared to the same quarter in 2019. That is the slowest year-on-year rise in eight years. Rates income was up +5.1% but regulatory income was down more than -20% in that period. In between, these combined revenues rose as much as +9.4% pa. But they also managed to keep their Q2-2020 total operating expenditure under control, also rising just +1.9% year-on-year.

MORE CHEAP MONEY
Treasury tendered another $950 mln in three tranches of nominal bonds today, drawing bids of more than $2.4 bln. That leaves almost $1.5 bln of money unsuccessful, looking for a 'home'. The April 2024 tranche was for $450 mln and was successfully bid at just 0.0825% pa yield. The May 2031 tranche was for $350 mln and the successful bids won a yield of 0.6262% pa. The final tranche was for $150 mln for the April 2037 issue, with the winners getting a yield of 1.10% per year.

A SPECIAL RESULT
There was a fourth tranche today, of $50 mln of inflation linked bonds with a maturity of September 2040. Those drew negative yields before the inflation premium. These investors are locking in below inflation yields for the next twenty years.

A MODEST RESULT
The NZ Super Fund has posted a modest gain in value during volatile year to June 2020. The Fund has posted an after tax return of +1.73% for the year, with the fund growing to $44.8 bln at year end, one where taxpayer contributions added $1 bln in the year to the Fund..

NEW DIRECTOR FOR ASB
ASB says Ross Buckley, who has worked for KPMG for 37 years and has been the firm's NZ managing partner, is joining its board from October 1. ASB says Buckley possesses a deep understanding of liquidity, funding and credit issues, and has expertise in financial and regulatory reporting. Buckley joins managing director Vittoria Shortt, chairman Gavin Walker, and existing directors Therese Walsh, Simon Blair, Rod Carr, Scott Bartlett and David Cohen on ASB's board.

FLEXIGROUP BRINGING 'HUMM' TO NEW ZEALAND
Flexigroup says it'll replace local buy now pay later service Oxipay with Humm, the one it operates in Australia, from September 14. Humm will offer "New Zealanders up to $10,000 of interest-free purchasing power with greater payment flexibility," Flexigroup says.

MORE BIG CARTEL FINES
Hamilton real estate agencies Lodge Real Estate & Monarch Real Estate have been fined $4 mln between them. That takes the total fines in the real estate price-fixing cartel case brought by the Commerce Commission total nearly $23 mln.

EQUITIES UPDATE
On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended the day up +2.0% and not quite recovering the prior day's sharp -2.8% fall. At its opening today, Shanghai is up +0.6%, Hong Kong is flat, and Tokyo is up +0.5%. Again, none of these recover all the prior day's declines. The ASX200 is up +0.5 after a -2.5% Wednesday fall, and the NZX50 Capital Index is up +0.8% in late trade today after a Wednesday -1.3% fall.

SWAP RATES VERY LOW
Yesterday, key local swap rates fell below zero and ended the day at zero. Updated: Today they rose across the curve, from next-to-nothing to just stuff-all. The two year and three year swaps are now 0.03% (or $2.50 in interest per year for every $10,000). We don’t have the final data for today yet and if it is significant we will update it here. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 0.30%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is 0.94% and up +3 bps. The China Govt ten year bond is at 3.10%, down -4 bps. The New Zealand Govt ten year is now at 0.60% and up +3 bps. The US Govt ten year is up +2 bps at 0.69%.

NZD HIGHER
The Kiwi dollar has held at 66.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are at 91.9 AUc and marginally higher. Against the euro we are at 56.5 euro cents, also marginally higher. That means our TWI-5 is now at 69.9 and boosted by good gains against the yen and the British pound.

BITCOIN UP
Bitcoin has risen today, now at US$10,358 and +3.3% higher than this time yesterday, and recovering all the prior days decline.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

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Source: CoinDesk

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22 Comments

If the interest rate on my mortgage gets low enough I may end up having to pay tax. Sad day for farming.

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If you show a profit you have to pay tax, that's life I'm afraid.

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On the flip side your paying the bank more. Hope it's not an Aussie bank....at least taxes serve a purpose not profits.

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Did the monthly results come out from qv????been waiting for them all week!!!!

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Sorry mate,but I have to say it. If you have not been paying tax what the F have you been up to. Obviously your farm must be crap.

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Hans B,

No, it just means that like most farmers, he has a smart accountant. It's how they operate the world over.

My son went to agricultural college in Scotland and all the students who came from farming families drove fancy cars and were on full grants because the farms didn't show a profit. My son had no grant because I couldn't fiddle my income the way they did.

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Any economists in the house?
- to check the assumptions.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Adam_Creighton/status/1303800595044655104

New Zealand Lockdown ‘costing $8.5m per year of life saved’, 190 times more than usual.

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The very first line looks wrong - apparently lockdown has only saved 1000 deaths yet Sweden has had 5000 deaths with 2x population and probably a much better health system, so surely we would have had at least 2500 by now.

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Interesting you say that.

There are some that think the NZ health system is truly poor, no resilience.

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-national/hundreds-icu-ventilators-…

Waikato emergency physician Dr Martyn Harvey said he believed much of New Zealand's Covid-19 strategy had been driven by the lack of ventilators.

"New Zealand pretty much decided we can't afford people to get sick and require ventilators because we haven't got the capacity, so we are going to have to do an aggressive lockdown and try to stop the spread because we know if we are going to get large scale community transmission we are going to be well short of ventilators and ICU beds and everything else we might need."

What is less clear are the therapeutics given, at time of positive test/symptoms, but prior to hospitalization.

You get the feeling many in MOH and govt prefer to act like Democrats than Republicans and the way our PM gets triggered by Trump.

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What therapeutics?

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Checking your assumptions, Henry? That's a bold step, for you.

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OB1, you should try it sometime.
The awareness you will find liberating.

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Man the NZ super fund is amazing. That is a remarkable result in a bad year to go with all the amazing results in the good years.
I see National have gone back to their “why borrow to invest in shares” theory that cost is so much in the English era.

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Ok but you make it sound like it's rosy from here on in.
Most people would say that the sharemarkets are way overvalued and property market as well. So the future of investments is not looking rosy at all.

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Maybe - but that’s what they were saying 10 years ago wasn’t it?

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Climate Change out too ? Both parties have their Armageddons

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Is the Government missing out on a lot of tax which they would have normally collected on interest earned. Now zero interest earned on savings so zero tax take.

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True that!

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Yeah it soon won't matter what tax rate you are on for your resident withholding tax payments. 0=0.

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yes but investors have switched to rental housing investments, we will get the tax off that, oh hang on, NZ is the only country in the OECD that does not have a capital gains tax to cover housing investments, oh and hang on we better give them an OCR of zero, oh and hang on, we better give them a few billion each year for accomodation supplement. Sad but true. Sorry young people.

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.. except that current QE madness is mostly justified by the need to save jobs , mostly in hospo , tourism etc. , mostly worked by younger people.
Would it not be nice to get all the benefits without the costly side-effects ?

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Bollocks the current QE madness is solely to prop up the boomer house prices..no one gives a dam about young people's jobs which got filled by immigrants years ago.

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