A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; ATM on tenterhooks, GDP growth stronger, buoyant farm sales, SMEs growing again, dairy's core role, swaps stable, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There were none here today either.

NERVOUS WAIT
Darling dairy company A2Milk (ATM) is in an unexpected trading halt. The share price was $14.12 at that halt. Little has been revealed by them as to the reason, but Synlait (SML) has suggested A2Milk has sales level issues. SML's share price was at $5.40 before the announcement and has fallen almost -7% since in today's trading. Investors will be watching nervously for the updates by both companies.

BACK IN GROWTH MODE, JUST
The New Zealand economy expanded a record +14% in September quarter from the prior June quarter when it contracted -11%. Year-on-year it is now +0.4% up after being -12.4% lower in the June quarter. This is better than the expected -1.3% y/y result.

A STRONG RECOVERY, EXCEPT FOR PRICES
There were 199 farms sold in November, the best November since 2016. Of those, 27 were dairy farms. Finishing and grazing units sold especially well. But average prices were unremarkable. In fact average dairy farm sales prices on a $/ha basis were down -15% from November 2019, and the lowest November average since 2010. Prices $/ha for finishing farms are at a three year low, and for grazing farms, also the lowest since we tracked them starting in 2009.

A RECORD HIGH?
Lifestyle block sales were also very buoyant in November, with 1157 farmlets sold in the month, the highest of any month since our records began in 2003.

LOCKED BORDER CONSEQUENCE
Our migrant population is down by more than -53,000 since March. And the number of people in this country on work visas sank by almost -28,000 between March and November.

EASY MONEY
There was another $650 mln tendered by Treasury today in four maturities. This set attracted $1.7 bln in bids, leaving $1.1 bln unsatisfied. The May 2024 maturity went for an average yield of 0.30% pa, the May 2031 maturity went for a yield of 0.94% pa, and the May 2041 tranche went for 1.73%. All were higher yields than at the equivalent previous tenders. There was also an inflation-linker bond offered and it was very popular. The $50 mln attracted $224 mln in bids and went for -0.09% plus CPI. The equivalent prior one of these was at -0.01% plus CPI.

SME's GET GROWTH AGAIN
Xero's Small Business Insights report shows a revenue uplift of +3.2% year-on-year in November, resulting in six straight months of year-on-year revenue growth. Similarly, small business jobs rose in November with the expected seasonality boost seeing a +2.4% climb over the month, with small business employment now +3.2% above the pre-crisis level in March.

CASE CLOSED
The SFO says it has found no fraud or illegality in the Christchurch mayoral Dalziel donations case.

$20 MINIMUM
The Government has signaled that the minimum wage will increase by +5.8% to $20 an hour on April 1, 2021 as per Labour's pre-Covid and pre-election commitments.

DAIRY PERSPECTIVES
The dairy industry peak bodies have released updated industry stats today. There is a lot of detail. But at the most senior level, dairy farms account for less than 6% of New Zealand's land area, or less than 16% of New Zealand's farmed area. And that area has shrunk (by a tiny amount) each year after peaking in 2015/16. It however has been basically static for seven straight years. What is marked however is the efficiency. Cow numbers peaked in 2014/15 at just over 5 mln, and have declined to just over 4.9 mln now. In the same period, milksolids production has risen slightly but dairy export values have risen a remarkable +32%. Milk powder may be the dominant export, but our cheese exports alone are larger than our wine exports, and our infant formula exports are larger than our seafood exports. New Zealand's lifestyle (including benefit transfers) is only affordable because of dairy export earnings.

RECORD HIGH
In Australia, updated September data shows that their household net worth rose to a record high AU$11.4 tln as at September, or a +3.5% gain in a year. It was a rise driven by rises in housing values, cash deposits, and superannuation balances.

AUSSIE BREAKOUT
NSW is having a small community COVID outbreak that has officials scrambling to contain it. It is the sort of event that may delay a Trans-Tasman travel bubble. Before that, other states may well first close their borders to NSW.

EQUITIES UPDATE
The S&P500 ended up just +0.2% in Wall Street trade earlier today while they await Congressional stimulus. Shanghai has opened +0.2% higher, Hong Kong is flat, and Tokyo is also up +0.2% at their open. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade while the NZX50 Capital Index is up +0.7% near our close, and despite the ATM/SML issues (above).

SWAP & BOND RATES STABLE
We don't have todays swap rate movements yet. If there are material changes when the end-of-day swap rates are available, we will update them here. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.26%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is up +2 bps at 1.01%. The China Govt ten year bond is little-changed at 3.32%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is up +8 bps at 0.96% and now well above the earlier RBNZ-recorded fix of 0.92% (+4 bps). The US Govt ten year is up +2 bps at 0.93%.

NZD RISES
Against the US Dollar, the Kiwi dollar is up at 71.3 USc. On the cross rates we have also firmed against the Aussie, now at 94 AUc and against the euro we are also firm at 58.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now at 72.8.

BITCOIN GETS FOMO SURGE
Bitcoin is now at a new record high of US$21,695 and up +11.9% from this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».