David Hargreaves says the Government has run out of excuses for not collecting detailed information on house buyers

David Hargreaves says the Government has run out of excuses for not collecting detailed information on house buyers

By David Hargreaves

This is a message to the Government.

In the words of a rather successful sporting goods manufacturer, it is time to: Just Do It.

The Government has long since lost any credibility on the subject of finding out more information on house buyers and where they come from.

Time to open up the box and see what is inside. Start collecting detailed information on house buyers and end the hysterical nonsense we are now seeing.

Advice given to the Government has shown that it would be doable to collect information on the immigration/residential status of house buyers. So, just do it.

Okay that same official advice to Government cast doubts on whether it would be worth doing it - but I suspect that might have as much to do with Treasury realising the Government was against the idea as anything else.

Since first joining Interest.Co in 2013 I've been banging on about how detailed information on house buyers should be collected and I know plenty of other people have too.

The Government's attempts to close the subject down by saying it doesn't see foreign buying as an issue have long since smacked of a Government that doesn't want to leave itself open to revealing a problem - because then it would have to do something about the problem.

But to continue existing in a vacuum of information as we are is simply ridiculous.

If credible, official, figures are not produced then the very thing we are now seeing is bound to happen. People create their own reality. 

Would we give much credibility to any measures the Government implemented around inflation, if we didn't have Statistics NZ measuring inflation? Likewise, would any state moves on employment carry any weight if we didn't, similarly, have detailed measures in place monitoring the labour market?

Housing is very important, so let's know the demographics of the house buyers. 

Any Government policies that deal with the housing market would be much more informed ones if proper information was available on where the property owner lives, and the reason for the purchase, IE whether it is as an investment or to live in.

The recently announced moves  that will include collection of IRD numbers and requirement for foreign buyers to have an NZ bank account will provide some more information. But it is an around-the-(sorry)-houses way of doing it.

The Government should right now say that it is going to require details of the residential status (and location, if offshore) and the purpose of buying to be entered on house purchases/land transfers.

Collect the information.

Then, 12 months down the track, let's have a look and see what the information tells us.

Of course, if the information does tell us that a very large percentage of Auckland houses are being bought by people offshore then it will behove the Government to come up with an appropriate response.

And clearly that would be tricky. But confronting tricky situations is something a Government should do.

At the moment this Government simply doesn't want to find out if there is a problem. It's the classic response of authority. Treat a problem by refusing to acknowledge its existence. In this instance it's even worse because the Government refuses to even carry out research that would enable it to know if there's a problem or not.

As for the spurious reasoning that there would be not much value in collating this information. No, I'm not having it.

There would be great benefit in better understanding the demand-side dynamics of the Auckland house market. For example, if it is possible to identify large numbers of overseas buyers, and directly identify local investors (and, yes, progress is being made on that one), then we can better understand how the market might be affected in future.

It won't have escaped anybody's attention that the Chinese stock market has been going through a rough time. Would this have the potential to quickly reverse buying interest in the Auckland market? Could the rural-driven downturn within New Zealand have a marked impact on the number of Kiwi investors in that market?

As I've said before the Government has kept driving on about the Auckland housing situation as if it is all about supply.

Clearly, that's an issue. But so is demand. Right now demand is high. But if we knew more about who is buying houses we would have a better idea of knowing how genuinely sustainable the current levels of demand are and what further steps might be needed to insulate ourselves from a sudden reversal of demand. Because I do think there's a serious risk of that in Auckland. And the people most at risk would be owner-occupiers with mortgages. 

So, Government: Get that information. No more delays. Just do it.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

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Perhaps National don't see the issue as a problem from their point of view?
The phenomenon shores up the banks assets (a concern post GFC), it gives NZ sellers cash, it provides a safe haven, probably keeps FTA partners onside, it keeps the NZ$ higher, it suppresses inflation/CPI by ensuring higher interest rates than otherwise would be necessary. What's not to like?

Only if Pollsters reflect 60%+ of NZers very concerned, &/or it becomes a re-election issue will anything be done.

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You are forgetting that the inflating house prices is stealing money from hard working Kiwi's emtering the housing market.

There is a lot not to like. Especially the fact NZers are being forced out of their own city.

An unsustainable credit bubble "shores up the banks assets"... really?

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It won't have escaped anybody's attention that the Chinese stock market has been going through a rough time. Would this have the potential to quickly reverse buying interest in the Auckland market?

Likely the opposite - those Chinese investors fleeing equities are more likely to look to RE assets. Hence what is left after the train wreck is more likely to go offshore (depending of course on what the PRC government does to manage capital flight - presently they seem to be promoting it, but ..)

I feel that collating this data at this stage and waiting 12 months to then act on it once we can actually "prove" what is happening - will be too late. External shocks will likely have overtaken us by then and as unemployment takes off - the bubble will soon be deflated without any specific policy change/effort by the government of the day..

So really, if something is to be done to cushion the shock - it needs to be done now - unfortunately without the benefit of the proper data. Seems to me that if Australia, Canada, Hong Kong and Singapore have moved - we can be pretty certain that we should have as well.

Hopefully the Chinese stock market get routed like the Japanese was and then the immature "prices only rise" mentality will be lost and the Chinese in herd mentality panic sell all assets in favour of cash and short term bonds.

Probably only wishful thinking though.

Cleaning out these Chinese Auckland property buyers who not only drive up prices but avoid taxes by buying assets without even contemplating the yield, is what is needed.

Start by investigating the agents that sell to these buyers. Look for the brown paper bags filled with money being passed around...

The sad thing is - those NZers who do have cash presently but are waiting for the music to stop - will likely be benefiting from the misery of fellow NZers being foreclosed on.

When everyone else was declaring that the foreign investors were only 5-10% of the market and hence had little influence - I made the point that it is the highest price paid for a similar property in a similar neighbourhood that sets the market expectation - and hence all prices rise accordingly.

Kate, I recently suggested on another post that potentially up to 25% of current sales were to Chinese who were either foreign buyers or NZ Chinese buying on behalf of Chinese Nationals.

If we were to assume the 9% Chinese in Auckland bought at the same rate as the general population (91% buy 60.5% means 9% buy 6%) hence using the 39.5% figure, then 33.5% of Auckland properties sell to foreign Chinese (directly or indirectly).

Do you mind if I yell: FOREIGN CHINESE MONEY IS BUYING 1/3 OF ALL AUCKLAND PROPERTIES.

WAKE UP NZ. WAKE JK AND DR SMITH.

And the other 2/3rds of Auckland property buyers are paying WAY OVER THE TOP for their purchases as a result!

I don't care if it's Chinese or not Chinese, it's that it's outside economys' money is what worries me.

That assumption is plain wrong. Chinese migrants as a group should be way younger than the general population (esp if you only consider European Kiwis), which usually means higher turnover. Funny people see how many Chinese buyers in the auction room but never think about how many Chinese sellers are out there.

That's illogical.

The Chinese population is only likely to be slightly younger on average and there is no way people in their 20s and 30s say buy houses at 6.6x the rate the general population does. Even if people in that age group bought at double the general rate it would not mean the Chinese rate was that high. The Chinese have young children and older parents here too.

"The sad thing is - those NZers who do have cash presently but are waiting for the music to stop - will likely be benefiting from the misery of fellow NZers being foreclosed on."

Sorry, I don't see anything sad in that situation.
If you're stupid enough to pile in now while rational people sit on the side-lines waiting for the inevitable then more the fool you.

Agree that rising prices are a self-fulfilling prophecy though. Higher prices set a new watermark and then people trigger off that. It's nuts.

At least match our regulations to Australia and Canada. Or yet again, NZ will be the naive dupe who agrees to play strip poker in a game where everybody else has marked the deck.

A large portion of the information is contained in the 2013 Census - if you can get at it - I have tried on several occasions to do a query on the Census databse - but found it beyond my capabilities

Answers to these questions provide information as to whether they have arrived within the past 5 years, their birthplace, ethnicity, and if they own the property outright or rent it

Location
Dwelling address
Usual residence
Usual residence five years ago
Years at usual residence

Ethnicity
Birthplace
Years since arrival in New Zealand

Housing
Occupied dwelling type
Tenure of household (do you own it or rent it)
Weekly rent paid by households (if you rent it)

I wish I could create my own reality. Sure as hell wouldn't include the National Party or the Chinese.

I've been working on an alternate universe myself. Need a breakthrough. Advice welcome. We have until 2060 or thereabouts according to Sir Issac Newton's prediction. Can't see it going much beyond that on this planet with these jokers in charge.

Join the National party.......

They do seem to operate on an alternative reality.

Good point. If lots of us right wingers who are disgusted with Key and co join the party, then we can make sure any new candidates are not the same Key ass-kissers, that we currently have.

Could be a plan.

David Seymour was looking particularly sensible on telly this morning.

I was a fan of Prebble. Seymour seems like a Key ass-kisser.

Not so sure - he went against them on something recently (might have been the mandatory insulation issue?).

I don't see how the Chinese are any different.
Europeans/British into Arborigal Australia or Maori New Zealand.
Portuguese and Spaniards into Central and South America
Normans in Saxon England, Saxons into Angle and Pict England.
Rome into Germany.
English into Scotland and Ireland.
Germany into Poland.
various kingdoms of Chin into each other until the Yellow Emperor.

Turks into Netherlands.
Lebanese into Australia.
Isrealis into Palestine and vice versa.
Portuguese and Spaniards and French into South and Central Africa.
Jews into everywhere.
Muslims into everywhere.
Christians into everywhere.
US corporations and culture into everywhere.

If you step outside your own cup of tea circle that is the world.
Only meeting on the level seems to slow it.

[ blatant racist comment removed. Last warning. Ed]

Bernard Hickey gives Shamubeel Eaqub a promo
Shamubeel Eaqub is right about this: 'There is a real urgency to get legitimate data'
https://twitter.com/bernardchickey/status/619661934082682880

Which takes you to Shamubeel un-censored at Stuff - 307 comments - afternoon reading
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/70155168/Labour-Party-property-dat...

David Hargreaves has been consistent in demanding this for over 2 years
Bernard Hickey never touches it directly
Shamubeel is suddenly on-board - a johnny-come-lately - a bit opportunistic

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If you haven't realized yet that National are severely compromised by Chinese interests you have not been paying attention. Might take the sheep a while longer to realize that 'honest John' is just the front guy, but it will happen eventually.

John Key said that offshore buying is very minor.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1137...
Nothing to see here. move on. It's all due to our booming economy and returning NZers.

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Key also thought removing the Kiwisaver kickstart wouldn't affect new sign ups! Yeah right!

Down 50% according to the ANZ.

Never trust a word JK utters.

Same short-term non-thinking as letting foreign buyers go completely unrestricted. Short-term gain, long-term disaster.

What short-term gain and for whom?

surely people now realize don't trust a word JK says, the guy cant lie straight in bed at night

It's unbelievable that posters on this site want to give even more information to the authorities.
Why not go the whole way and have cameras in each house and each room feeding directly to a central hub so we can be constantly monitored 24 hours day?
Sleep walking into the future of "Big Brother Is Watching You" seems closer than ever.
link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Brother_%28Nineteen_Eighty-Four%29

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Even to those of us who are used to your ridiculous dissembling that particular comment reaches a new low......

People have to state their nationality and place of residence when on immigration cards. Is this a sign of encroaching Big Brother?

I am expected to supply "ethnic identity" on many government forms (for statistical purposes).
expecting that on sale/possession of limited edition NZ capital assets is not a big ask, especially considering the effect foreign (not just Chinese) incoming money is likely to be having on the local market.

I would think potential direct consequences demand that much due diligence, in case incoming (not just Chinese) funding is distorting the NZ economy !

Considering the invasion of personal information is already done for much less relevant things to us by Government that the precedent has already been set, and that asking this one question does not resemble any level of increased invasion, and given the information is very important and on a critical topic, it needs to be done and fully retrograded to ALL property in NZ - as due diligence, not a witch hunt.

Is that the best you could come up with? These guys monitor all of our phone calls and web traffic and you're worried about them collecting information on who is buying Auckland - I wonder why..

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Bernard/DC, why can't we post on the other pages about this issue??

I note the man whinging about his name sounding Chinese, when he is an Asian!! Go figure...

The point is that the Auckland market is overrun with Asian buyers purchasing homes at what is clearly (from the Twyford figures) six and a half times the rate of the general population.

Even though the buyers may be NZ residents, they are often buying for family or "friends" with foreign money.

Twyford is on the right track. Nick Smith and co are delusional.

Because most times people get to emotive and personal in their responses.

Using terms like "whinging".
seriously...dude. you needed to do that in a sensitive topic?

Playing the racism card is a powerful way to stifle debate on this embarrassing topic. The British government used it to shout down any discussion on their open doors immigration policy.

It's a powerful tool and it's being used the same way here in New Zealand.

But this issue is not a free pass to post racist comment here. And who gives a toss what the Brits do/did? (They couldn't be futher away from NZ if they tried.) Also, our comment stream shows clearly that debate is not being stilfled.

Is that a derogatory/borderline racist comment about the British, Mr Chaston?

yes... I smell a little racism here.... the Brits..

I don't see any racism here yet comments have been blocked on the other related stories. Meets the definition of stifling debate.

The British government reference was more of a general comment on the reaction of the owned press and National government, I've seen it all before.

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Rob Salmond is spot on in his article. Keith Ng is in fairyland.

Headline should be "CHINESE BUY AUCKLAND HOUSES AT 6.6x THE RATE THAT NON CHINESE AUCKLANDERS DO"

(9% buy 39.5% = 1 per 4.4, versus 91% buying 60.5% = 1 per 0.66, and 4.4/0.66=6.6)

How is it possible that a group that earn less than the general population in Auckland buy 6.6 times the number if houses, especially when banks put such a reliance on income when lending...

It would be interesting to see how many of these newly purchased properties (by Chinese) are indeed mortgaged to NZ banks? I suspect very much less than the average.

I think you're right for the wrong reasons. Keith was very right to challenge the estimates based on entry-level high school calculations of probability.

Is Auckland property a real market or is it a bit like the Chinese sharemarket, a rigged market?

I predict in the next Auckland slump prices will be down by an amount that would make our favourite gloomster the big Bernard Hickey very happy.

Not surprisingly we are selling out of the Auckland market. Only a mug wouldn't be.

It's similar to the five words of advice given about the Chinese stock market a few months back:

GET. THE. HELL. OUT. NOW!

And as Brian Gaynor explains in his Herald column - all the signs of a bubble were there .. but still the market grew;

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=114...

Yeah, but it's different this time.

Will you market with a Chinese salesperson Chris J

No. We marketed the first with a local. Not a single Asian at the auction but the property was Grey Lynn, not exactly hot property for Asians. It sold to a local Aucklander. The price was about 25% more than what we thought we would sell it for last Christmas (6 months ago). (It was a tidy ready to move into house, the Asians seem to buy the dumps and just the cheapies unless it is in Epsom, or Remuera, or another area that appears good value.

Asians must think the inner west is overvalued or something??

Asians generally go through with their own agents if they are interested anyway.

Chinese don't like the word 'west' because in their own word, 'going west' means dying = ’归西‘, and no they don't go through their own agents. That shows how little you know about Chinese trend in the Auckland market.

Doublegz, why are Asians buying in West Auckland then?

At the auctions a fair number of Asian bidders seem to have their own buyers agent acting for them.

And at those auctions it is pretty clear what happens, the Asian bidders get into bidding wars that they are unwilling to lose. Also although they seem to buy everywhere in the city, they tend to bid excessively high prices on houses in areas that no one particularly wants and pay what seems to be over the top. Eg properties in grotty locations like Mt Wellington or Panmure or Mt Roskill or Avondale.

Agree.
Lots of Asian investor action out west- particularly Henderson (esp land that is dubdividable), West Harbour and parts of Massey.

Chris J- followed you comments for years and respect them. When will this correction hit in Auckland?
My pick is just before the next election......

28/29 (although you must be mid 30s by now!), my theory is when something is being talked about by absolutely everyone, that it is already peaked. In saying that momentum can make things last a while longer.

So in reality who knows.

But what I do know, is that when assets are overpriced they always correct. But that doesn't mean everything needs to be sold. What it means is your exposure needs to be limited.

If for example you bought a villa in the central suburbs for $1m a four years ago as a rental that returns $800pw, but could sell for $2m today. You need to ask would you be happy if the value fell to $1.5m or would you be devastated if it continued to rise to $2.5m and you had sold today?

The fact is that intervention is now likely, and interventions have bad outcomes.

In the long term prices will rise, but banking short term gains might be more sensible...

"my theory is when something is being talked about by absolutely everyone, that it is already peaked."

My philosophy exactly. "Be fearful when others are greedy" and all that jazz.

I've just moved to Auckland and I'm finding it absolutely tiresome - it's honestly the third thing people ask me about when they meet me.... "So, how do you like the weather here?.... where are you living?... will you buy?"

NO. I'M NOT GOING TO.

I can see why people do though, it's a subtle societal pressure that's constantly there. It's nuts.

Fair call Chris J
I have a long term strategy and still 30+ years off getting the pension
Glad I listened to you than BH back in 2009 :)
Those rentals I bought back then have more than doubled in value and tenants are paying them all off
I will never sell but agree with your sentiment of limiting my exposure
No need to buy anymore. Greed is bad....

yeah... but u may be surprised by how much more it can go up...before it crashes..

Care to give some kind of timing to your prediction...????

but when it does crash you will find you own il-liquid assets.

My gut feeling is that in Auckland prices will be at or below current levels at the end of 2017.

I know that is vague, but it may continue to rise a bit causing a bigger downturn.

The reason for my view is: no one expected the Asian Crisis in 1997 or the credit crunch in 2008 to impact the market as it did.

On top of this, interventions (1 Oct) are imminent and more will come as the issue gets more traction.

Also yields are too low and prices too high for most to be able to hang on without capital gains. It is different to markets that doubled in the regions a few years back as this was because yields dropped from 15-25% to 7-10%. Auckland is not sustainable at 2% yields (which is about what we sold in Grey Lynn at).

Remember the Chch boom is already over, prices have been flat for a year.

However where are you going to put your money that is safe?

This house buying is rising in most Western cities now

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/351606a8-159b-11e5-be54-00144feabdc0.html...

"Houses in English-speaking democracies with good education systems, excellent quality of life, strong rule of law and strong property rights are regarded by Chinese buyers as excellent stores of wealth."

Need to revise those "Yankee Go Home" signs to make this less of a comfortable place to "store wealth"

From the guy who did the data analysis for Labour

Ethnically Chinese agents make about 71% of their sales to ethnically Chinese buyers;
Ethnically European agents make about 13% of their sales to ethnically Chinese buyers.
This means if there are multiple real estate firms in Auckland with large numbers of ethnically Chinese agents, they are also likely making large numbers of sales to ethnically Chinese purchasers.

One such firm is Harcourts, whose market share is less than 45% meaning it is likely not the subject of the leak. This morning I found no fewer than 89 Auckland-based Harcourts agents with common, ethnically Chinese names. This suggests at a minimum that a second large Auckland real estate firm is making large numbers of sales to ethnic Chinese buyers, whether resident or not.

http://publicaddress.net/speaker/house-buying-patterns-in-auckland/

Although there is plenty of evidence of foreign off shore buyer activity the bigger issue is that two many migrants have been easily let into NZ and of those the Chinese have gone into rampant house buyer mode, distorting the market, inflating prices to unrealistic levels. Chinese already resident here including Chinese real estate agents have often been buying multiple properties.

I say good work Labour bringing this out in the open.

Would appear the data was leaked by someone within Barfoots - nobody else in Auckland has 45% market share with nearly 4,000 sales over 3 months. The data Rob Salmond had must have included name of buyer and seller and name of salesperson.

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I think it's unfair to suggest that Chinese are just pouring $$$ into the housing market. After, all they do also contribute generously to worthwhile charities, eg the National Party.

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The PM of Parnell can take the day off - I will answer for him.
"Look, at the end of the day who is buying houses in AKL is not important. I think most Kiwis will understand that housing, together with tourists from China checking out the real estate, are the only things keeping NZ going. What we really need to have a discussion on is the color of the flag"

And that is about the sum of all of this

Yes the flag should be a red background with a southern cross of four gold stars.

with a stars and stripes off in a corner and a for sale sign in another.

Pertinent but maybe just a teeny bit busy

This situation reminds me of murder/rape/theft/drug dealing in a criminal family or cult. Although there are many adults present at, or near the crime, NOBODY saw anything. NOBODY knows anything. Nobody can help the police. Nobody will testify. Nobody has any suspicions. NOBODY is very concerned about the situation. There is no justice, ever.

As we all know, this is not lack of information, it is CRIMINAL OBSTRUCTION of an investigation. It has happened repeatedly over the years in NZ.

Our governments refusal to collect information about who is buying our country is, IMO, criminal obstruction. I would go so far as to say that they have collected the info already (how could they not have, our Secret Squirrels burrowing around 24/7?), but will not tell us. Does anybody really believe that John Key does not have detailed info of who owns what? They just will not tell us.

"Leading edge intelligence for a safe and thriving New Zealand. Welcome to the official website of the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS)".

or
"GCSB contributes to New Zealand’s national security by providing information assurance and cyber security to the New Zealand Government and critical infrastructure organisations, foreign intelligence to government decision-makers, and cooperation and assistance to other New Zealand government agencies."

re: Criminal Obstruction, cracks me up when I see it on the TV dramas my girlfriend loves.

Yes jonkey the donkey will bug NZers, spy on everyone, trade secrets, draw up secret plans with people we know don't have our interests at heart ... but he refuses to count those who buy up NZ's most limited capital assets (even if just for statistical purposes). hardly shadey at all o_O

Focus

If you accept that, prior to 2015, it was illegal for Chinese Nationals to get more than $50,000 per annum out of the country legitimately, then, theoretically, every cash settled purchase of any Auckland property for $1 million or more, prior to 2015, by a Chinese National was by definition illegitimate, and therefore of interest to the Fox Hunters. And by definition, knowing this, the NZ govt has done an Admiral Horatio Nelson and turned a blind eye. That's called aiding-and-abetting.

From that, the inference can be drawn that NZ is an easy-touch destination for "naughty money"

As for the GCSB, and recent Cyber-Hacking penetrations of Govt Depts in the USA, it is quite conceivable that the PROC are not waiting for the GCSB to ring, but is doing the job for them. Question is, does the PROC supply that information back to the GCSB. Doubt it.

If asked nicely, the Cyber-Penetration Dept could probably provide that info for free

Recent article in the NZ Herald, hinting that a tsunami of Chinese money is to hit the NZ property market soon. With the latest action in the share market there, this money could hit us faster and earlier than expected....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1146...

Well the Nats are well positioned to take in the tsunami with Brash and Shipley at the banks to funnel it all in and the reelection coffers do need topping up after all.

not too mention one of their biggest donors being the head of one of aucklands RE

Fran O'Sullivan is worth reading these days. I think she learned a lot from the Dirty Politics episode.

national must be worried they have had there spin doctors websites kiwiblog amd whaleoil sites running with labour are racists.
considering both have been staying well away from the whole Auckland housing issue in the say nothing and it will go away style
trouble is it is backfiring in that many people are posting backing up what is common knowledge about foreign buyers buying up large chunks of Auckland housing.
This could become a major election issue if you have national and act on one side saying anyone can purchase no restrictions
labour and NZ first banning foreign ownership of existing residential housing
the greens, the maori party and peter dunn still to take a stance.
with home ownership rates falling in Auckland they might have found the nail for the coffin
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8703685/Auckland-has-lowest-h...

Yes John must be quaking in his boots thinking Andrew is coming at him. Get real. Labour need a leader to have a chance in 2017. That is why they lost in 2014. John was ripe for the plucking but Labour was rudderless and still is.

I agree labour cant win unless they get their house in order but that does not mean national cant lose.
if WP takes enough disenchanted national voters me being one they wont have the numbers to govern.
they will get there one act and PD seats, I cant see the maori party surviving so that means they need 59 seats, big ask. unless they try to do a deal with WP and he wont with JK there

The vote always goes to whomever appears the most trustworthy.
doesn't matter on clothes, policy, position left or right, competency, platform, or party.

Even if they know they're going to get screwed the swing voters will pick someone they can trust over someone they don't feel like they can trust purely from uncertainly, fear, hope, and the reputation of power in the position (government, prime monster) , so every time they go for the trust.

And you would vote for WP in 2017 at his age and with his dubious reputation. You surprise me. I thought you had a bit more intellect .

my other choice is don't vote at all which I cant do as I believe you must have a say in your government.
national have lost their way. my hope is a quick kick in the pants (hopefully only out one turn) and they will revert back to where they should be.
even there zero contracts law today is so wishy washy, either support zero hours or don't they have now made it so complicated and are leaving it up to judges to decide

Oh lets put ppl down. Um no, I almost voted NZF because I didnt like National in the least and Labour and the Greens were too far left for me, plus the odd policy I strongly disagreed with (He/NZF is also pro-gun ownership, unlike the Greens who are anti) What ever WPs bad points he has some good ones which is speaking out aloud and making the Govn of the day act a bit more honest and raise their game.

With WP you know he is totally for himself first, all five foot two. At least with JK you have some humanity.

aren't polys out for themselves especially the top ones at the end of their political career. JK is trying to leave his legacy in a new flag same as HC tried for a big stadium same as Cullen with his super fund Muldoon with think big lange with nuclear free.
he knows his time at the top is coming to an end it will be interesting to see if he gets rolled or retires.
If he miscalculates the Auckland housing issue and public opinion turns against him then national could drop to 45% and cant govern how long do you reckon his loyal backbenches would give him if they see themselves out of a job, like you say " for himself first"

I have reviewed their methodology and it looks fairly solid given the dataset available. I'm shocked at the scale of the issue. I thought the problem was bad, but not even I thought it was that bad.

It is only question of when restrictions are put on speculative offshore capital. What happens when that much influence is removed from the market.

national have backed themselves into a corner on this, they should have used the line well it could be a problem but we are not sure then set up a register, by the time the data was collected and made public they could have policy in place to deal with it, but they have done (what frustrates me about national the most) deny its a problem and then when polls tell them its a problem and they have been found out trying to cover it up try to fix half heartedly.

[ Cross posting racist comment from another website is not acceptable here. Ed. ]

National have been claiming that the Auckland house price boom is purely a "Supply Problem". Most will realise that claim is completely wrong.
Even if Nick Smith could somehow fast track another 40k houses in various devts, it would not make any difference as there are millions of willing, eager foreign buyers. And they will keep buying existing family homes on good sections in leafy suburbs. - they're not buying townhouses in satellite minisuburbs on tiny sections.
How will the PM play it? Fob it off, shrugging "we don't know" & "even if it were true etc" How many spindoctors, bloggers, and crack Secret PR agents will be running smear campaigns on Labour, Twyford, & other commentators speaking up?
Watch for the rebuttal articles appear in the media. Don't hold your breath on any journalists pressing any hard questions.

National is hand in glove with wealthy Chinese interests.

Actually I would have expected JK or Blinglish to have come out swinging a couple of days ago. Must be having to wait for the paint to dry so they can get out of the corner they painted themselves into

if they got solid highground they're better waiting to the fight to come to them. Until then they look clean, getting in scraps risks mud on their faces. don't show up then noone can remind you of things you did/said previously or do now (speaking later)

Nationals initial PR strategy looks like putting David Seymour Act, up as their apologist/spokesman - claiming racism/poor data. This deflects from a National defence.

Ah yes, that's not a bad point, they use ACT in this sort of way quite a lot

Both racism and poor data are real issues. The Govt should sort the data issue, but only 'we' can fix the other one.

You know, generally, on a one on one basis, people are not racist, what becomes difficult is when you have large amounts of change going on in a short period of time. At the moment we are experiencing large amounts of immigration from Asia, and personally I find if I encounter people one by one either on a professional or casual basis, racial barriers break down quickly. Any such immigration must not come at the cost of our own people.
People who are not NZers buying our property are a whole another ball of wax, must stop, and it must include some serious checks on farm sales as well. Just how ludicrous this has become is illlustrated by Shanghai Pengxin feeling comfortable enough to outright state that seek to own a billion dollars worth of our dairy farms and how the move to vertical integration is not enough roughly disguised. Mad, we are mad.

incorrectly assigning racism, and brushing off racist but accurate remarks just because of there tone is also a very real issue.

David
Why are you so sensitive about "racism".... Even a shadow seems to become "racism"..
What is Racist about Hot money coming from China and India... to be invested In Aucklan real Estate.... ( Where there is a legal system that protects property rights ).
Common sense says... ...that Hot Money will have bidding power..... and that it will displace resident NZers down the food chain in regards to housing..
All the anecdotal comments on this site over the last couple of yrs support the view that there is foreign investment in the Auckland property mkt...which is distorting and disconnecting the normal metrics of affordability and price/income ratios.
Throw on top of that the intelligent comments of some people on this site about supply constraints and Councils...etc..
The real issue is the use of common sense... not so much data...and racism is just in the eye of the beholder.... ( just like reds under the beds )... making something out of nothing..

ps.. there is a good reason why very few..if any.. small South Pacific Island Nations (eg.Cook Islands ) allow foreign ownership of land...and it has nothing to do with racism..

Mass immigration is an act of racism against NZers.

In effect it elevates the rights of the new migrants and foreigners above that of the native (born here) peoples.

Essentially foreign money is more important than local well being. Very divisive stuff.

" to continue existing in a vacuum of information as we are is simply ridiculous" totally agree. First rule of management, know the problem, quantify it, then you can decide what to do if anything (if its a problem or not).

Andrew little told paul henry labour will introduce laws in the first 100 days to outlaw non residents buying existing homes.
paul picked him up on if they buy a section for a new build will they have to sell within a certain period otherwise they would just land bank for GC, second would non residents be able to sell properties to other non residents. both things he should have thought of he really needs to get it together.
nick smith came out and said IRD shows only 1.5% of rentals belong to offshore investors which backs up lots of reports of empty houses across Auckland being held and traded.
my fear is if it is say 30% and once the Chinese sharemarket really goes there could be a fire sale and if that happens a lot of FHB could fall below the LVR and how do you think the banks will treat them when they try to re mortgage

if that happens a lot of FHB could fall below the LVR and how do you think the banks will treat them when they try to re mortgage

Badly. Those with less than 50 % in the game are rabid gamblers using other people's money to gain the rewards of position and therefore helping hands are out of the question. If the government wishes to subsidise mortgages for families, as they have in the past, then it becomes a matter for electors to decide.

There is little profit in closing the worst affected position early - that maximises damages and destroys recovery. If possible, and the FHB can service the debt, the banks will carry - and should, seeking relief and prop up from government, RBNZ relief, and external security organisation (create a Fannie Mae, to hold all the bad debt while swapping it for paper "perfect securities", the banks would have to pay a small margin for such securities (the cost being spread across all bank customers and trading revenue - spreading the load) and the money paid to the government held external organisation, pays off the bad debts that actually collapse. The portion of security relief, would be external organisation set (eg start max 40% of each doubtful loan) but could be shifted a little depending on funds and bank liquidity.

Such things are already in operation in the world, so we're a long way from the dead ground yet.

Yes,well, you have just described one of the main reasons why non resident foreigners should never have been allowed access to our market

If the chinese are indeed buying I'd suggest the properties they are buying are the top end, maybe upper middle, yes these could take huge losses. FHB's are however realistically down at the bottom end of the market so I dont see an immediate severe impact on FHBers.

buts its all releative if the middle house drop 10% then the lower ones that FHB are in will also decrease 10%, the scary thing is we just dont know because of no data or there is data and they dont want us to know in case it spooks the market

Can you prove this? As an example some (the better ones?) suburbs of Auckland have seen huge increases in value, while others hardly any? If the "hardly any" are the FHB suburbs (suspect so) then no I dont see that they will take such a big hit. On top of that if we have a lot of cash buyers in the top end? So these taking substantial losses do not effect bank stability directly. FHBers also will probably stick it out as they need somewhere to live.

properties in mangere are selling for 700 k + some as high as 900, its not central city so why so high?
in 2009 same thing happened the new ones in the subs were selling for 500k before GFC and then dropped to 350k after GFC as a lot of people went under with mortgages they could not longer service.
as they say history repeats

We can't have it both ways. If a correction is desirable to get house prices back to some sort of rational multiple of local incomes, then such a correction will hurt the equity of some of the most recent buyers, and or borrowers against recently inflated equity.
I would have thought most banks would be sanguine about remortgaging someone who had kept up their payments, almost regardless of a theoretical drop in the value of a property. Don't make the payments due, and the conversations could get a lot tougher, granted. So whatever mortgage you take out, be pretty confident you can make the interest payments.

not when you have as part of bank wage a bonus for every loan you can land from tellers up.
there is now a culture of pushing as much debt onto people as possible, the days of a bank manager turning you down for a loan based on what you could afford are long gone

Before all the blame gets put a JK's feet, in 2004 a local real estate agent told me of a German lady coem to town, bought ten houses and then went home. three months later it was a group of women from Australia. So it's been going on for years and the lack of a database to detail the size of the issue is an indictment of all parties in Government, not just National. While Chinese (or Asian) may be the flavour of the month, ill gotten gains or what ever, and fear of an impending crash because of issues in their own country, they are not the only one. That we think we can superficially percieve who they are (???!) they make an easy target, but without a database how do we identifiy and deal with the Brit, yank or euro spending up large here cause they have loads of lollie at an ever improving exchange rate? All FHBs must be captured in any legislation. JKs IRD and other measures are only a sop to the current Chinese Government.

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