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New Zealand's largest bank follows two of its main rivals down with one home loan offer of 2.99%. TSB follows, going down to 2.89%. But savers pay with large term deposit rate cuts

New Zealand's largest bank follows two of its main rivals down with one home loan offer of 2.99%. TSB follows, going down to 2.89%. But savers pay with large term deposit rate cuts

Update: TSB has now cut its one year 'special rate by -20 basis points to 2.89%.


ANZ has chased Kiwibank and ASB down with a matching 2.99% home loan rate.

This reduction is part of a set of three rates reduced by New Zealand's largest mortgage lender.

ANZ's new one year fixed carded 'special' offer is now 2.99%, a reduction of -6 basis points.

The bank has reduced its 18 month rate by -29 bps from a previously uncompetitive level, down to 3.20%.

And ANZ has cut -10 bps from its two year fixed rate, taking that carded rate down to 3.25%.

Similar reductions apply to ANZ's 'standard' rates.

These moves leave both BNZ and Westpac stranded with no offer below 3%, although negotiation may be able to prise matching rates from them.

At the same time, ANZ has taken a knife to term deposit offers, dropping almost all rates from 60 days to 18 months by -15 bps. The exception in this bracket is its one year rate which has been cut by -20 bps. Smaller cuts apply to two and three year terms. The effect is to put back a term premium for the longer rates (even if the overall levels are now getting very low). We will have more on the term deposit rate cuts separately.

Of course, these main bank reductions are not the first banks to go below this benchmark.

HSBC already offers rates as low as 2.95%. Heartland Bank offers a 2.89% rate. And China Construction Bank has the lowest of them all at 2.80%.

All banks are reporting squeezed net interest margins (NIMs) and the ANZ's matching term deposit rate cuts show they are serious about protecting margin, and that savers will be the group paying the price for low borrowing rates for homeowners.

Despite the lower fixed rate offers, there is no suggestion from any bank that floating rates will be reduced, and it is floating rates that are the basis for SME lending. These borrowers are being quietly passed by.


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Hold on for the BNZ and Westpac response. Most likely (and based on past behaviour) Westpac will just match the others. But BNZ has had a habit of being a bit more daring. We shall see.

Wholesale swap rates have fallen sharply in lockdown although the latest daily shifts have seen that retreat end and a kind of floor may have been found. See the charts here.

Here is the full snapshot of the advertised lowest fixed-term rates on offer from the key retail banks.

Fixed, below 80% LVR 6 mths  1 yr  18 mth  2 yrs   3 yrs  4 yrs  5 yrs 
as at May 12, 2020 % % % % % % %
               
ANZ 3.65 2.99 3.20 3.25 3.99 4.75 4.85
ASB 3.89 3.05 3.25 2.99 3.69 3.79 3.89
4.79 3.09 3.05 3.35 3.69 3.79 3.89
Kiwibank 4.29 2.99   3.39 3.65 3.99 4.09
Westpac 4.79 3.05 4.25 3.35 3.69 3.79 3.89
               
Bank of China 5.15 5.25   5.35 5.50 5.70 5.99
Co-operative Bank 3.25 3.25 3.35 3.45 3.69 3.89 3.99
China Construction Bank 4.70 2.80   2.85 3.19 3.30 3.45
Heartland Bank   2.89   2.97 3.39    
ICBC 4.29 3.18 3.18 3.18 3.20 3.99 3.99
HSBC 3.64 2.95 2.95 3.09 3.50 3.60 3.70
SBS Bank 3.89 3.09 3.39 3.39 3.69 3.79 3.89
  3.89 2.89 3.35 3.35 3.69 3.79 3.89

In addition to the above table, BNZ has a unique fixed seven year rate of 5.20%.

Fixed mortgage rates

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87 Comments

The futility of Monetary Policy manipulation is on full display here.
(NB: I can't be bothered running through 'why' yet another time)

Whatever you do ..................DO NOT FIX

Interest rates are going to go even lower , and the bank would love to lock you in right now

Bnz floating rate is 4.55%. It would have to drop a long way to outweigh taking the fixed rate for 12 months. That's 1.5% higher than what I could fix it for at the end of the month when my mortgage comes up for renewal. Maybe it will drop significantly quickly maybe it wont. I am leaning towards taking the 12 month fixed over defaulting to the floating rate which is a significant extra interest payment while I wait around for the rates to drop further. Why are floating rates so much higher? At what point would you fix boatman? How long would you be prepared to take the hit on the floating rate while waiting?

"Why are floating rates so much higher?"
You can march into that same BNZ store tomorrow and pay off the loan without penalty, or swap lenders whenever you like.
Fixing, fixes more than just the interest rate.

Always take the lowest rate, which is invariably the one year rate, unless you can demand a large cashback to take a 2 or 3 year rate. The reason the floating rate is so high is that the banks want to lock you into a fixed rate.

split your loan into chunks -- and then fix a chunk --- i had a floating loan ( 3.95 with discount) with 50K or 8 months to run - just thought 2.99 was worth grabbing even for the short time -- went on line chose teh 2 years and it automatically gave me a keep payments the same option -- net result just fixed for 8 months at 2.99% :)

Fixed last week at 3.05%, but whats 0.06% difference?

You fixed?? I would have stayed floating given the current circumstances

Your nom de pleur speaks voluminously

Plume

Oh the irony haha

Yes, "nom de plume", plume being the feather which of course was the writing tool long ago

2.8% minimum end of year, maybe 2.5% - we'll see

That implies term depo rates in the realm of 1.5-1.8% max. May be hard to get people to deposit their money at that rate.. all we need if for them to chase yield in riskier classes

They don’t really want depositors, what they need now is an environment that forces even the thrifty to go out and borrow rather than save.. the extra borrowing they desperately need need to keep the housing ponzi and themselves alive

Desperate to flush out the creditworthy wealthy and asset rich seeking an additional residential real estate investment?

But they know it's wiser, and instantly profitable, to front run the RBNZ LSAP operations over the near term investment horizon.

It's always interesting to me when a bank offers a retail fixed rate that's within RBNZs inflation target band. It's really a vote of no confidence in the Reserve Banks ability to move inflation to that part of the band (or, in real terms, they'd lose money on the loan.)

Whatever you do ..................DO NOT FIX

Interest rates are going to go even lower , and the bank would love to lock you in right now

I'm hearing reports of credit tightening. One instance of a FHB with 20% deposit, asked for x7.5 income (not at all unusual until recently) and offered a loan capped at 3.5x income. Anyone else have info either way?

That will be very interesting as fixed 1 year loans start to come to an end, will they continue that rule? With "only 3.5x", I'd have to sell a rental, and my household income would be in the top 1%. Yet on the other hand, by the end of the year paying my interest will be nearly trivial.

Whether or not that will apply to you isn't the real question.
A better one would be "Are you going to hang around with that rental until roll-over date to find out?"
Ask them! Then you'll know which way to go now.

3.5 x income? Boomers must be chuckling over that one (used to be the norm to buy a 1/4 acre piece of paradise)

yeah, but that was the total property value... the mortgage was only 2.8x

No the x3.5 was the size of the loan, the 20% deposit was on top.

Crossed wires GN, i was referring to the boomers, not your associates. :)

at 7.5x they deserve to be declined. That is crazy. Borrowing over 6x is nuts... that's why RBNZ classify this as riskiest... https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c40-residential-mortgage-lending-by-...

For the last 3 years kiwibank have only been willing to lend me <5x salaried income, that is with over 40% deposit and rental income on the property in addition to my salary.
I moved over from ANZ on the principle of supporting a kiwi bank, the difference in risk appetite was a bit of a shock. But it supports the reasons for my move. Thank goodness my lending is now <1x my salary. Thank goodness.

Good for you Solve_it. I bet you sleep more deeply with that <1 x DTI in these crazy times.

I've been offered anything between x 7 and x 11 in NZ!! Coming from the UK where the limit was 4.5 (less when i was younger and single) . I nearly fell over when I was offered such a huge mortgage. I took it as a clear indication of exuberance and said no thank you!

Auckland housing market and incomes are very different to UK. Goodluck buying in a decent suburb in Auckland unless you earn a huge amount.

Chessmaster, wow thanks for telling me, i'm a grown ass woman who has bought and sold multiple homes but i obviously hadn't noticed that the UK and NZ were different, wow, thanks for enlightening me.

Dude. I have bought and sold in London, when I worked for the NHS on and NHS salary, don't talk to me about Auckland prices, like I wouldn't know the struggle of affordability. Kiwi exceptionalism about their housing market is such a crock. There have been housing affordability issues in every country at different times, on and off for decades. I bought my first house in 1999 so i've seen a few cycles.

Good to know. I will ask you for my property advice. So are you a doctor, dont understand NHS reference or the Grown Ass Woman reference. That's very disrespectful

The NHS is the 5th biggest employer in the world, you're on a finance website but you don't understand the reference? The entire pandemic there have been regular discussions about healthcare and essential worker wages... but somehow you missed that too huh? Did you think Auckland was the only city in the world with affordability issues? Seriously?

The point i was making, rather obviously I thought, is that borrowing large amounts of money is risky. That Auckland prices are too high on a salary metric and that this is a problem. It is, however, not a problem exclusive to Auckand.

Also, welcome to the internet, referring to oneself as "grown ass" is not disrespectful, its a common humorous colloquialism....but perhaps you are very out of the loop with contemporary culture or even internet culture? Urban dictionary may help you navigate the confusing world of online linguistics.

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=grown%20ass%20woman

Haha, brilliant. Love the Urban dictionary reference.

To me Auckland is not over priced. Its the best city in the world and i can see prices continuing to go up as more people move here. Compared to Sydney and Melbourne (also great cities), we are much better priced and better place for kids schooling etc. To me better comparison is Melbourne and Sydney not UK cities. I have heard for almost 20 years of prices dropping in Auckland.

I don't mind "grown ass" but may I suggest a hyphen?

Contemporary parlance usually writes it grown-ass. Unless one's intent is to describe the consequences of middle age onset and shuttered gyms, I suppose.

Ah yes Rick, grown-ass would have been more correct, alas after a month of lockdown "grown ass" has also become more accurate.

I'll be interested to see. We're considering a purchase which would have been absolutely trivial before (total debt ~3x income across two properties, ~50% equity). I wonder if it might not be now.

I can't see that being a problem for any bank TBH. x3 DTI and a chunky deposit will be a banks wet dream in these times. You're exactly the kind of business they'll be competing for.

Just need to get the combination of a good interest rate and a good discount on sale price.

Good interest rate seems fairly easy. Knowing how much discount is a "good" one at the moment is the tricky bit.

What’s more scary 7.5 times being lent previously or the drastic change now?

It's a hard pick, both are pretty awful eh?

Whatever you do ..................DO NOT FIX

Interest rates are going to go even lower , and the bank would love to lock you in right now

Yes I think most banks will go to 2.8 - 2.9%.
And I think there's an outside chance OCR will go negative, in which case rates could go down to circa 2.5%.

OCR is a largely irrelevant construct for fixed rates... hard to pass on a negative OCR to depos

2.25 is my pick, that's what I'm budgeting for in a year's time when we come off fixed. What we have is enough to get us through, but not enough to stoke the economy if everyone decides to just hold onto their cash and slash discretionary spending.

So you budget for something that may or may not happen...seems legit. I’ve only been a home owner for a year but i budget for the floating rate then fix with the current offered rate. Because that’s one thing you can be pretty certain of.

Good.
Short term fix is the new floating.
However I m kind of hoping the see the expected15-20% property discounts...

LOWER, LOWer, lower...

. . . . and the savvy property investors are quietly circling, watching and waiting; falling term deposit rates, falling house prices, falling interest rates, lack of LVR, rents buoyed and with good certainty due to Accommodation Supplements, and increasing net rental yields, . . . .

Touche

'Rents buoyed'.
Please elaborate.

Yes Fritz
Yes, rents buoyed by Accommodation Supplements.
Property investors just love those on Accommodation Supplements . . . you really should try figure.

The AS only goes so far.
We have a market at play here - demand for rentals will fall, supply will increase (Air B and Bs, new build supply to the market).
Rentals in Auckland on TradeMe are creeping up, and a lot of places are just sitting there.
Even if there's a bit of a Mexican standoff at present, It's hard not to think that rents will drop.

Btw what do you think is a good net rental yield right now? Very very hard to get better than 3.5-4.0% in Auckland.

12
up

"Landlords in denial as deflation beckons"
New Zealand Property Investors' Federation President Sharon Cullwick said she had also given this stark warning to fellow investors:
"Make a decision now on whether you can afford to keep your investments," Cullwick said. And stick with it. If it means you've got to get out of the market then get out of the market, but know that you can get back in later," she said."

://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/16/1129745/houses-of-pain-if-you-need-to-get-out

That sums it up nicely.
And even landlords and landlord advocates are saying this.
Good to see some of them have faced up to reality.
Denial is the most dangerous of things.

Ginger and Fritz
Time will tell but those who I talk aren’t doom and gloom seeing opportunity and positioning themselves.
No problem with those newbie investors negatively geared and/or those without primary income security getting out. Those not and with a little cash are watching and waiting.

Sure, there could be some good opportunities, don't deny that.
But that reflects the fact that the market is in trouble - hence there will be some much reduced prices ('opportunity').
I wouldn't be counting on significant capital gains in the future though, so if you can get good yield, good luck to you.

The article isn't saying "give up being a landlord it's a bad investment now for all time". Just that if there is any issue with you covering your mortgages during this crisis, get out now, while you can get a good price, nearish the top and then buy back in when prices are cheaper and you aren't at risk of default. That doesn't sound like doom and gloom to me, that just sounds like sensible advise for any market!

I think there will be a price drop and then prices will plateau for ages . Maybe 5-10 years of minimal house price growth. If the crash is substantial then growth will return sooner probably but I think it could be a long time for prices to go above what they got to at the Yvil peak.

I think he’s referring to the 700 sky city workers who won’t be paying rent or mortgages without a replacement job to go to.

Tappertee
There is a shortage of government social housing and they won’t be sleeping in the streets or under bridges.
You, ginger, Fritz and I will be paying taxes to pay their benefit plus accommodation supplement to live in private sector housing.

Quick question - you don't see any worries in the market - at all?

Fritz
Yes, there will be some landlords on reduced incomes or with poor job security under pressure who are forced to sell. Those well established and/or cash flow positive will appreciate the income, try to ride the storm out on the basis of not wanting to sell in a depressed market (and with associated costs), and, if able, wait and watch for opportunities.
I will be closely watching RBNZ monthly reports on mortgage lending figures.
I am initially expecting low investor and FHB activity, but as things progress I expect greater investor activity - that is sadly for me the most significant worry as homeownership rates fall further. That could become well entrenched.
Potential FHB will be very worried and uncertain - I would be waiting but also watching those RBNZ mortgage lending figures - when increasing investor activity occurs that would suggest that those with experience see it as the time to buy.

Printer8, are you on the hunt in Auckland?
What sort of property, and what sort of yield do you think is acceptable?

Fritz
No longer an Aucklander. Always believed that rentals require a landlord to be hands-on (management fees too high vs yields, no control over choice of tenants, heard too many horror stories re managers) so property needs to be in one’s locality and self-managed.
As to yields and ideal property; the question is too simplistic.
The most important thing is what niche you are interested in. As examples:
A low socio-economic area tends to on paper give a good yield but lots of issues, higher turnover and down time, so lots of work/chasing up (Eg T/ Tribunal) and not ideal if your primary work is demanding.
Small two bedroom reasonably modern flat suitable young recent married couple both working tends to have far less issues (they tend to have people for dinners rather than parties), rent payments not an issue and likely to stay about 2 years so great if one’s primary job has a heavy work load but yields not as great.
Cheaper three bedroom homes suitable solo mums a good niche - tend to be longer term because of schooling and dp benefit is regular and assured income.
House with multiple young flat mates each paying for a room has great yields but one needs to be 6foot plus tall, 15 stone, and a threatening disposition if needed.
So what is a good yield - well the yields on these would vary by about a factor of at least 2.
Investors heavily involved with larger portfolios aiming for maximum yields tend to be involved in the first scenario.
Mum and dad investors looking at longer term retirement fund tend to accept second scenario.

Thanks and I realise all of that.
But there must still be a bottom line yield that is acceptable
I will put it out there and say 4% net.
And that is hard to find in Auckland and will still be hard to find even with 10% price drops.

Look carefully.
When talking yield look at the amount invested and not necessarily property price; provided mortgage, other expenses are covered, a net 4% on property price could mean 12% return on one’s equity.
And don’t forget capital gain , and yeah, yeah prices are going to fall in short and possibly medium term but property is a long term investment so where are prices going to be in ten years? (I would question anyone looking at property for even 7 years; it’s like being in a KiwiSaver growth fund You really need to be there for the long term and the longer the better)
Just on the current situation; the friends I know have been in for over 10 years, properties have minimum mortgages. The rents have paid off most of the mortgages, the houses are at least twice what they paid. They will not be affected with the downturn and have plenty of equity to leverage more property if wanted.

Fritz
As for the current situation - I had experience of the GFC and property. Bought a property 2006, saw the RV go down by over 10% during GFC. Meaningless - same house, same rent. Sold 2016 for pretty reasonable capital gain.

So what is a good yield - well the yields on these would vary by about a factor of at least 2.

Enough with the trolling. These are serious times. The reality of the bubble being dead and buried is looking more likely with every passing day. Almost everyone was not prepared for what has occured. Learn to live with it.

Why would the no. of rental properties available be going up at this time of years?
Most properties would be on fixed tenancies till at least the end of the year!
We have only one property that is on periodic tenancy and it suits us.
Have spoken to a few agents in the last week who all told me that 5hey have had a lot of enquires from people looking at buying, and word is that offices have been busy and still in level 3.
Christchurch is a sleeping giant that is starting to wake!

TheMan
That is consistent with Tony Alexander’s survey results of REA.
We are in for interesting times; yes, one can expect a fall, and yes there is going to be a degree carnage in some regions (i.e. Queenstown and holiday homes areas).
How big a fall and for how long? Too early to tell - some positive drivers as well as the negatives but too early to know what weighting each of these will have.

'Most properties would be on fixed tenancies till at least the end of the year!'

You as much as anyone must know that properties are tenanted throughout the year. Hence, tenancies will be coming off fixed term as we speak.

You are also ignoring the large number of ex-Air B and B's coming onto the rental market. Not to mention newly built townhouses and apartments - of which there are many coming online. Or aren't those things happening in ChCh?

Fritz, we don’t allow tenancies to expire in the middle of the year, why would you in The middle of winter.
As professional landlords we ensure the tenancy expires only when demand is going to be good, why would,you want an empty property for weeks.
We very very rarely have a house empty for more than a week, just the way we operate.
Yes there will be many AirBNB coming onto the market to rent and sell, but that’s not a market we have dealt in.
A lot of the AirBNBs that will come on are horrible attached 2 storied boxes that suckers have been enticed to buy by saying they are affordable.
They have no garaging and often no parking, which is crazy.
They are paying far too much for what they are and not fit for purpose as family homes either.
In ChCh there are many cheaply chucked up 2 storied units still being thrown up where the buyers (wouldn't don’t call them investors) are going to come a gutser when they want to sell.
They are paying over $400k and are told they will get $450 to $500 per week for one bedroom.
There are vulnerable in every industry

Nah what The Man 2 does, is when he acquires a new rental property he leaves it empty until January. If February comes along and no tenant is found, he'll leave it empty until the following January.

Wierd. I've never been on a fixed term tenancy as a renter, and don't know anyone currently on one. All periodic. Odd every scenario you know is the opposite.

The norm in auckland seems to have been a one year or 6 month fixed that rolls into periodic from what I have seen. Be interesting to see what happens in the future with proposed legislation changes.

I've been on fixed term which expired in March. It's gone onto month-to-month periodic. So it does happen throughout the year.
I suspect the next time I see my landlord she'll be pushing for me to fix for a year again. Which I won't do.
Hopefully it doesn't make things awkward...

Anyone with no debt is in a good position right now. The trick is maintaining purchasing power in an environment where every government is racing to the bottom devaluing their currency with QE.

Yes and what to invest in given that some are saying deflation is coming and others are saying inflation is coming!

It's perfectly possible to have both. We have had both since the GFC. My own personal best guess is that for a few years we will have some imported inflation related to exchange rates and lower trade volumes on the supply side, but that this will be balanced by the deflationary effects of unemployment and less discretionary spending on the demand side. The inflation/deflation will not be even across assets either. There is going to be a property market correction but how deep and for how long is beyond my ken.

There could be a long stagnation or even stagflation. There could be a depression. There could be war or a great reset. While there is an ongoing global pandemic, all I am expecting with any surety is great volatility, so i'm covering all bases. Eventually there will be a recovery but that could be in 3 years or 20 or 200. I genuinely don't have a clue right now, this is one of those events that could go in some extreme directions and the likelihood of great changes have increased massively.

In NZ we have had a storage of supply of housing , this has been driven by

1. investors getting higher returns from short term stays , depleting long term rental stock.
2. excessive regulation / high construction cost structures
3. Land supply constraints

so what's changed ?

1 tourism has stopped

For the year ended March 2019:

Total tourism expenditure was $40.9 billion, an increase of 4 percent ($1.6 billion) from the previous year.
International tourism expenditure increased 5.2 percent ($843 million) to $17.2 billion, and contributed 20.4 percent to New Zealand’s total exports of goods and services.
The number of short-term arrivals to New Zealand increased 1.3 percent over the same period.
Tourism generated a direct contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) of $16.2 billion, or 5.8 percent of GDP.
Tourism is our biggest export industry, contributing 21% of foreign exchange earnings.
The indirect value added of industries supporting tourism generated an additional $11.2 billion, or 4.0 percent of GDP.
229,566 people were directly employed in tourism (8.4 percent of the total number of people employed in New Zealand), an increase of 3.9 percent from the previous year.
Tourists generated $3.8 billion in goods and services tax (GST) revenue, with $1.8 billion coming from international tourists

what hasn't changed

2. excessive regulation / high construction cost structures
3. Land supply constraints

there will be a medium term oversupply 18 -36 months of rental property until tourism cranks up again.

Rental rates ARE decreasing / capital values will follow / some regions will suffer more than others.

If you are forced to sell you WILL make a Loss, if not hang on, because the reduction in rental rates is being off set by a reduction in interest costs and Jacindas charity .Today the government emailed inviting me to apply for a non secured loan @ 3% paid out in 5 working days, how crazy is that.

And remember who's balance sheet is affected the most , Banks, who want the party to continue....

If you are forced to sell you WILL make a Loss,

If you can find someone to sell to. There is no guranteee that will happen.

Does anyone know if break fees are tax deductible?

Not on your owner occupied home. Investment property - possible. Talk to your accountant

I am not touching an ANZ house loan until Cruella offers me the same $4mill sweetener she gave Hisco.

Is TTP MIA?

Chairman Moa!? Don't tell me you missed all the TTP news?? An account named Sam Roma outed TTP on the Martin North, DFA youtube channel. They seem to know who several commentators on here are (including me!?). It's all very bizarre. They claim to have emailed TTP and threatened him, that if he doesn't stop using the interest.co.nz comments there would be professional reprisals for him. TTP made a few comments a couple of weeks ago, on here, after this Sam Roma person had apparently issued the ultimatum. TTP had made a reply to me on here (I think this has since been deleted). It wasn't a bad comment by any means but I referred to him by his alleged real name and then he replied and signed off with that name, as if to acknowledge it. Anyway, some other people have since shared some scandals that TTP has been involved in and well, there has been a lot of popcorn ;-)

The general up shot of the drama is that TTP is a fairly major player in the Real Estate Industry and has been leading something of a false identity here. That's just standard internet behaviour to me. Half the internet seems to have aliases, sock puppet accounts, alter egos and online identity multiples (i've had them since the 90s) but apparently the issue is that TTP is bound by a professional code, so may have been in breach of that in his comments on here. I'm not sure about any of that personally, I don't know the REA code of conduct in NZ, but he was certainly not being honest (if he indeed *is* the person that Same Roma states).

From my perspective, online anonymity means anyone could be anything. I used to have a whole FB account where I claimed to be Tom Bombadil and only ever said things as Tom Bombadil, which as a massive Tolkien geek, found highly amusing. So, online persona's aren't at all shocking to me. I have numerous male alter egos because I find online, people are much nicer and i receive less abuse, if they think i'm male. Sad but true.

Comments are in the link below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJx9TzPItLM&lc=Ugxxd5-bpc-490lgoTl4AaABA...

How did I miss this!? Count me amused.

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