David Chaston

Term deposit savers are facing lower interest rates in 2025 from a number of factors, not the least of which is that banks face depressed lending opportunities. The DCS is also a factor

Term deposit savers are facing lower interest rates in 2025 from a number of factors, not the least of which is that banks face depressed lending opportunities. The DCS is also a factor

US inflation expectations unchanged; Chinese exports surge; India's inflation eases; Aussie inflation signals up; Spain proposes 100% property sales tax; UST 10yr at 4.77%; gold down and oil up; NZ$1 = 55.5 USc; TWI = 66.6

US inflation expectations unchanged; Chinese exports surge; India's inflation eases; Aussie inflation signals up; Spain proposes 100% property sales tax; UST 10yr at 4.77%; gold down and oil up; NZ$1 = 55.5 USc; TWI = 66.6

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Heartland trims TD rates, building consents not recovering, but filled jobs rise, swaps stable but long bond rates jump, oil up sharply, NZD holds, & more

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Heartland trims TD rates, building consents not recovering, but filled jobs rise, swaps stable but long bond rates jump, oil up sharply, NZD holds, & more

Benchmark bond yields are in the middle of significant change in many countries, NZ included. While it is hard to know where things will settle, we track the shifts so far

Benchmark bond yields are in the middle of significant change in many countries, NZ included. While it is hard to know where things will settle, we track the shifts so far

Eyes on inflation's track; US jobs rose more than expected; American fear upcoming inflation; China struggles to contain economic stagger; Aussie tax receipts surge; UST 10yr at 4.76%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 55.6 USc; TWI = 66.6

Eyes on inflation's track; US jobs rose more than expected; American fear upcoming inflation; China struggles to contain economic stagger; Aussie tax receipts surge; UST 10yr at 4.76%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 55.6 USc; TWI = 66.6

Expectations are being built for big home loan rate cuts leading up to the February OCR review and beyond. But there is more going on in the world than weak NZ housing sales. What are the chances that mortgage rates will follow the OCR down?

Expectations are being built for big home loan rate cuts leading up to the February OCR review and beyond. But there is more going on in the world than weak NZ housing sales. What are the chances that mortgage rates will follow the OCR down?

US jobs market stronger than expected; US consumers fear impending inflation; financial markets fear rate cut delays; insurers fear climate impacts; China fears bond pressures; UST 10yr at 4.76%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 55.6 USc; TWI = 66.6 (really)

US jobs market stronger than expected; US consumers fear impending inflation; financial markets fear rate cut delays; insurers fear climate impacts; China fears bond pressures; UST 10yr at 4.76%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 55.6 USc; TWI = 66.6 (really)

China still battling deflation, moves to defend the yuan; Japanese wages rise; India growth slows; Aussie retail rises; freight rates twist; UST 10yr at 4.69%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 56 USc; TWI = 66.9

China still battling deflation, moves to defend the yuan; Japanese wages rise; India growth slows; Aussie retail rises; freight rates twist; UST 10yr at 4.69%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 56 USc; TWI = 66.9

Asking prices of homes for sale on Realestate.co.nz fell again in December taking them -17.6% below their January 2022 peak

Asking prices of homes for sale on Realestate.co.nz fell again in December taking them -17.6% below their January 2022 peak

US data positive; rates for long-dated bonds rise; China expands its consumer subsidies; EU sentiment slips; Aussie inflation stable but more job vacancies; UST 10yr at 4.68%; gold up and oil down; NZ$1 = 56.1 USc; TWI = 66.9

US data positive; rates for long-dated bonds rise; China expands its consumer subsidies; EU sentiment slips; Aussie inflation stable but more job vacancies; UST 10yr at 4.68%; gold up and oil down; NZ$1 = 56.1 USc; TWI = 66.9

For the first time in more than a decade a new registered non-bank financial institution is about to launch, Welcome Investments & Loans

For the first time in more than a decade a new registered non-bank financial institution is about to launch, Welcome Investments & Loans

Although the latest full dairy auction recorded lower prices, in perspective of broader market forces the dairy sector is in good shape. It may lead the overall economy out of its recession

Although the latest full dairy auction recorded lower prices, in perspective of broader market forces the dairy sector is in good shape. It may lead the overall economy out of its recession

Dairy prices slip; US data strong; minerals slip on China demand; EU inflation up; Aussie building consents weaken; UST 10yr at 4.69%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 56.5 USc; TWI = 67.1

Dairy prices slip; US data strong; minerals slip on China demand; EU inflation up; Aussie building consents weaken; UST 10yr at 4.69%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 56.5 USc; TWI = 67.1

Barfoot & Thompson's sales and selling prices were both lower in December on seasonality factors but their mountain of stock remains an issue even if they sold slightly more in the month than they took in new listings

Barfoot & Thompson's sales and selling prices were both lower in December on seasonality factors but their mountain of stock remains an issue even if they sold slightly more in the month than they took in new listings

Australia leads a global rise in services PMIs; China improves; Trudeau resigns; German inflation rises; eyes on China financial markets; UST 10yr at 4.63%; gold and oil little-changed; NZ$1 = 56.5 USc; TWI = 67

Australia leads a global rise in services PMIs; China improves; Trudeau resigns; German inflation rises; eyes on China financial markets; UST 10yr at 4.63%; gold and oil little-changed; NZ$1 = 56.5 USc; TWI = 67

A bond bubble is developing in Chinese financial markets and regulators are scrambling to contain it and defuse the underlying causes

A bond bubble is developing in Chinese financial markets and regulators are scrambling to contain it and defuse the underlying causes

Commodity prices show weakness; China extends support, promises more; US still worried about inflation; heat & bushfires return to Australia; UST 10yr at 4.60%; gold and oil little-changed; NZ$1 = 56.1 USc; TWI = 66.8

Commodity prices show weakness; China extends support, promises more; US still worried about inflation; heat & bushfires return to Australia; UST 10yr at 4.60%; gold and oil little-changed; NZ$1 = 56.1 USc; TWI = 66.8

We look at some basic building blocks of our interest rate settings, the foundation on which the 2025 changes will play out

We look at some basic building blocks of our interest rate settings, the foundation on which the 2025 changes will play out

Global factory PMIs turn down; global freight rates twisted by tariff reactions; China slips but signals new support; UST 10yr at 4.59%; gold down and oil up; NZ$1 = 56.1 USc; TWI = 66.9

Global factory PMIs turn down; global freight rates twisted by tariff reactions; China slips but signals new support; UST 10yr at 4.59%; gold down and oil up; NZ$1 = 56.1 USc; TWI = 66.9

Without taxpayer subsidies, the new car market twisted while it shrank, but buyers gravitated to petrol hybrids rather than full EVs. And perhaps surprisingly, ICE cars regained some share in 2024

Without taxpayer subsidies, the new car market twisted while it shrank, but buyers gravitated to petrol hybrids rather than full EVs. And perhaps surprisingly, ICE cars regained some share in 2024

With all mortgages looking like a commodity, little different between institutions, banks are finding it difficult to win new market share. Those that are, are grinding out their advances slowly over many years

With all mortgages looking like a commodity, little different between institutions, banks are finding it difficult to win new market share. Those that are, are grinding out their advances slowly over many years

US data good but short-term risks rise fast; China faces it own messy markets; global factories in better shape; Aussie house prices stop rising; UST 10yr at 4.57%; gold and oil rise; NZ$1 = 56 USc; TWI = 66.9

US data good but short-term risks rise fast; China faces it own messy markets; global factories in better shape; Aussie house prices stop rising; UST 10yr at 4.57%; gold and oil rise; NZ$1 = 56 USc; TWI = 66.9

US data mixed; China sees some factory expansion; USD strength hurts many currencies; ETFs have spectacular year; UST 10yr at 4.55%; gold drops and oil firms; NZ$1 = 56.4 USc; TWI = 67

US data mixed; China sees some factory expansion; USD strength hurts many currencies; ETFs have spectacular year; UST 10yr at 4.55%; gold drops and oil firms; NZ$1 = 56.4 USc; TWI = 67

2025 is likely to be a year of rising risk, with 'blame', 'retaliation' and 'retribution' key policy drivers. How will we fare in these 'interesting times'? Time to record your 2025 predictions

2025 is likely to be a year of rising risk, with 'blame', 'retaliation' and 'retribution' key policy drivers. How will we fare in these 'interesting times'? Time to record your 2025 predictions

Financial markets reassess their risk profiles; China expects 'outsized stimulus'; coffee and cocoa prices return to record highs; UST 10yr at 4.63%; gold firm and oil little-changed; NZ$1 = 56.4 USc; TWI = 67

Financial markets reassess their risk profiles; China expects 'outsized stimulus'; coffee and cocoa prices return to record highs; UST 10yr at 4.63%; gold firm and oil little-changed; NZ$1 = 56.4 USc; TWI = 67