Currencies
The US Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with a 50bps rate cut. The US dollar fell alongside treasury yields while equity markets gained immediately following the decision
19th Sep 24, 7:41am
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The US Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with a 50bps rate cut. The US dollar fell alongside treasury yields while equity markets gained immediately following the decision
Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter of the Bank for International Settlements on tracking the size of carry trades
18th Sep 24, 9:53am
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Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter of the Bank for International Settlements on tracking the size of carry trades
Global asset markets and investors look ahead to the FOMC tomorrow morning. The market is pricing close to a 70% chance for a 50bps cut by the Fed
18th Sep 24, 7:48am
Global asset markets and investors look ahead to the FOMC tomorrow morning. The market is pricing close to a 70% chance for a 50bps cut by the Fed
US rates are lower across the board on rising bets that the Fed will front-load the easing cycle with a 50bps rate cut this week. Lower rates support US equities but have worked against the USD, which is broadly weaker
17th Sep 24, 7:44am
US rates are lower across the board on rising bets that the Fed will front-load the easing cycle with a 50bps rate cut this week. Lower rates support US equities but have worked against the USD, which is broadly weaker
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields
16th Sep 24, 8:26am
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields
Markets pricing the Fed’s first easing for the cycle this week at a toss up between 25bps and 50bps. The US Treasuries curve steepened further, with a short end-led rally in bonds
16th Sep 24, 7:20am
Markets pricing the Fed’s first easing for the cycle this week at a toss up between 25bps and 50bps. The US Treasuries curve steepened further, with a short end-led rally in bonds
Oil prices rebounded from multi-year lows after a storm disrupted production in the Gulf of Mexico. Gold prices hit an all-time high. The ECB cut interest rates as expected
13th Sep 24, 7:47am
Oil prices rebounded from multi-year lows after a storm disrupted production in the Gulf of Mexico. Gold prices hit an all-time high. The ECB cut interest rates as expected
Positive risk sentiment reigns, commodities, pro-cyclical currencies stronger. ECB delivers widely expected 25bps cut; projected to cut once more in 2024
13th Sep 24, 7:43am
Positive risk sentiment reigns, commodities, pro-cyclical currencies stronger. ECB delivers widely expected 25bps cut; projected to cut once more in 2024
US CPI data drove a swing in US Treasury yields and slightly higher core inflation sees the curve flatter and slightly higher. USS equities recovered early losses to now show a decent gain
12th Sep 24, 7:41am
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US CPI data drove a swing in US Treasury yields and slightly higher core inflation sees the curve flatter and slightly higher. USS equities recovered early losses to now show a decent gain
The key market move has been a further chunky fall in oil prices. Lower oil prices have supported lower interest rates. US equities are modestly higher while in currency markets JPY has outperformed
11th Sep 24, 7:49am
The key market move has been a further chunky fall in oil prices. Lower oil prices have supported lower interest rates. US equities are modestly higher while in currency markets JPY has outperformed
US equities have rebounded after last week’s hefty loss but otherwise market movements have been well contained. UST rates little-changed, while the USD shows a modest broadly based gain
10th Sep 24, 7:46am
US equities have rebounded after last week’s hefty loss but otherwise market movements have been well contained. UST rates little-changed, while the USD shows a modest broadly based gain
Roger J Kerr says all the economic indicators and financial market direction in the US point to continuing lower interest rates and a depreciating US dollar value
9th Sep 24, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says all the economic indicators and financial market direction in the US point to continuing lower interest rates and a depreciating US dollar value
US nonfarm payrolls weaker than expected pointing towards a cooling in US labour markets. The USD gained particularly against commodity currencies. Equities fell. UST yields declined as the yield curve steepened
9th Sep 24, 7:20am
US nonfarm payrolls weaker than expected pointing towards a cooling in US labour markets. The USD gained particularly against commodity currencies. Equities fell. UST yields declined as the yield curve steepened
Equity markets remain soft ahead of key US labour market data. Treasury yields and the US dollar are modestly weaker. Brent crude prices stabilised following Opec+ postponed production increase
6th Sep 24, 7:43am
Equity markets remain soft ahead of key US labour market data. Treasury yields and the US dollar are modestly weaker. Brent crude prices stabilised following Opec+ postponed production increase
Cooling US labour market led to lower treasury yields. US job openings, considered a proxy for labour demand, fell to the lowest level in more than three years. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps to 4.25%
5th Sep 24, 7:42am
Cooling US labour market led to lower treasury yields. US job openings, considered a proxy for labour demand, fell to the lowest level in more than three years. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps to 4.25%
Soft tone across global equity markets with the S&P down sharply. US manufacturing ISM remained soft. Oil prices fell sharply to the lowest level since last December with a deal expected to restore Libyan production
4th Sep 24, 7:34am
Soft tone across global equity markets with the S&P down sharply. US manufacturing ISM remained soft. Oil prices fell sharply to the lowest level since last December with a deal expected to restore Libyan production
September has been a horrendous month for US equities, with the S&P500 falling in the previous four. When Wall Street returns, there will also be a busy week of US data, ending with the US labour market update
3rd Sep 24, 7:53am
September has been a horrendous month for US equities, with the S&P500 falling in the previous four. When Wall Street returns, there will also be a busy week of US data, ending with the US labour market update
Asset markets were confined to narrow ranges with limited economic data and the Labor Day holiday in the US weighing on market activity. European bond yields traded modestly higher. The AUD outperformed
3rd Sep 24, 7:39am
Asset markets were confined to narrow ranges with limited economic data and the Labor Day holiday in the US weighing on market activity. European bond yields traded modestly higher. The AUD outperformed
US dollar & treasury yields track higher despite marginal PCE miss. Tokyo CPI runs hotter-than-expected adding weight to case for a Japan October rate hike. ECB likely to cut in September. RBA not cutting
2nd Sep 24, 8:39am
US dollar & treasury yields track higher despite marginal PCE miss. Tokyo CPI runs hotter-than-expected adding weight to case for a Japan October rate hike. ECB likely to cut in September. RBA not cutting
Roger J Kerr says if the US had up-to-date and accurate economic measures of rents and jobs in the US economy, the Fed would have cut interest rates many months earlier
2nd Sep 24, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says if the US had up-to-date and accurate economic measures of rents and jobs in the US economy, the Fed would have cut interest rates many months earlier
US inflation data benign supporting equity gains. Eurozone inflation fell supporting the case for the ECB to reduce rates. Global bonds ended higher in yield and the US dollar gained. Oil prices fell
2nd Sep 24, 7:12am
US inflation data benign supporting equity gains. Eurozone inflation fell supporting the case for the ECB to reduce rates. Global bonds ended higher in yield and the US dollar gained. Oil prices fell
US Treasury yields remain in a consolidation mode with a curve steepening bias. A risk-off vibe and technical factors have seen the USD broadly stronger with European currencies underperforming
29th Aug 24, 7:48am
US Treasury yields remain in a consolidation mode with a curve steepening bias. A risk-off vibe and technical factors have seen the USD broadly stronger with European currencies underperforming
Latest monthly figures from the Reserve Bank reveal our central bank now has over NZ$22 billion worth of 'foreign currency intervention' capacity
28th Aug 24, 3:22pm
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Latest monthly figures from the Reserve Bank reveal our central bank now has over NZ$22 billion worth of 'foreign currency intervention' capacity
US consumer confidence higher on lower interest rate outlook while labour market conditions soften further. US equities edge higher, US Treasury yields in clear curve steepening bias and the US is broadly weaker
28th Aug 24, 7:39am
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US consumer confidence higher on lower interest rate outlook while labour market conditions soften further. US equities edge higher, US Treasury yields in clear curve steepening bias and the US is broadly weaker
Markets are consolidating following the initial excitement following Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. US equities are down modestly, US Treasuries show small changes, and the USD is slightly stronger
27th Aug 24, 7:28am
Markets are consolidating following the initial excitement following Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. US equities are down modestly, US Treasuries show small changes, and the USD is slightly stronger
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